• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
• /
• v.42 no.2
• /
• pp.199-208
• /
• 2014

Purpose: This paper explains how to obtain the Bayes estimates of the whole launch vehicle and of a vehicle stage, respectively, for a newly developed expendable launch vehicle. Methods: We determine the parameters of the beta prior distribution using the upper bound of the 60% Clopper-Pearson confidence interval of failure probability which is calculated from previous launch data considering the experience of the developer. Results: Probability that a launch vehicle developed from an inexperienced developer succeeds in the first launch is obtained by about one third, which is much smaller than that estimated from the previous research. Conclusion: The proposed approach provides a more conservative estimate than the previous noninformative prior, which is more reasonable especially for the initial reliability of a new vehicle which is developed by an inexperienced developer.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.35-42
• /
• 2020

Recently the reusable launch vehicle is being a major trend in the worldwide space market, because a few commercial companies, especially SpaceX, are trying to cut down the launch price through developing and succeeding the reusable launch vehicles. However, there is still a big controversy about whether in view point of the launch cost which is more favorable between expendable and reusable. Therefore, a study and close examination is required for the launch cost in the early development phase of the reusable launch vehicle. In this study the sensitivity analysis is performed with respect to the major cost parameters which have great effects on the launch cost and price. The standard vehicle of this sensitivity analysis is the expendable vehicle having a payload 20 tons. The cost estimation relationships used in this calculation are referred from the commonly proven cost models such as TRANSCOST. The major cost parameters chosen in this study are as follows: development cost, production cost, refurbishment cost, and maximum reusable number.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
• /
• 2009.11a
• /
• pp.115-118
• /
• 2009

Life time and number of use of liquid propellant rocket engine (LRE) should be carefully defined since those are crucial parameters affecting development costs and period. The present study surveyed the development and qualification records of LRE for space launch vehicles, especially concerning about test numbers and duration. It was shown that a single engine for expendable launch vehicle is tested with tens of ignition and several times duration of flight at least.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
• /
• v.26 no.3
• /
• pp.32-42
• /
• 2022

The strategy to develop a launch vehicle family by bundling multiple rocket engines of a single type has been proven by SpaceX and their reusable fleet comprised of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. In this study, we revisit a potential launch vehicle family out of a 35 tonf-class methalox staged combustion cycle engine and evaluate their utility and performance in various space missions. For example, a Korean version of Falcon 9 can deliver 4.7 tons of payload into 500 km SSO in an expendable mode while the payload is reduced to 2.16 tons in a sea-landing reusable mode. A Korean version of Falcon Heavy can deliver 4.4 tons into GTO when launched from the Naro Space Center, indicating that this common booster core configuration can handle Cheollian 2 albeit the high inclination. Once developed, the same methaloax engine can power the first-stage of smallsat launch vehicles and air launch vehicles.