• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Value

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Business Trends in Geo-Spatial Information and Service Market

  • Heo, Joon
    • 한국공간정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.351-354
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    • 2005
  • NASA's remote sensing market analysis and forecast projects 3.3 billion dollars in 2005. On the other hand, a market research firm expected that world commercial remote sensing imagery, GIS software, Data, and value-added services will generate 8.3 billion dollar in 2007. It has been widely believed that geo-spatial information and service market is growing rapidly and has a huge potential, but it is not clearly understood where it is now and will be heading in the future. Also, it could be a significant question to answer where the industry in Korea fits the best in the world business trends and where it should be strategically heading to take a large market share. Furthermore, if it could be worth being considered as a Korean strategic industry for the future. Instead of pursuing direct answers to the questions, the author will start reviewing general business practices, major business transactions such as merging and acquisitions (M&A's) and initial public offerings (IPO's), and research on market capitalization and revenue of major companies. Throughout the study, a list of common grounds in the market was uncovered and realized as follows: (1) value-added data matters in geo-spatial information and service market; (2) private sector grows faster; (3) characteristics of multi-national industry; and (4) Dependency on major industry. Based on the findings, the author presents a list of recommendations as conclusions.

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The Effect of Exogenous Risks Upon the Choice of Real Options in ERP Projects in Korea: An Empirical Approach (ERP 프로젝트의 외생위험이 실물옵션 선택에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증 연구: 국내 ERP 프로젝트를 중심으로)

  • Nam, Seunghyeon;Kim, Taeha;Yang, Heedong
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2013
  • This work investigates factors that may affect the choice of real options by ERP project managers. Financial theory suggest that these factors include risk-free interest rate, time to maturity, volatility of net present value, and options exercise price. Other than these factors, we are interested in the exogenous risks related to external uncertainties about technological cost, user learning and consulting, and so forth and we argue these risks should have a significant impact upon the volatility of net present value. To validate these factors empirically, we collected survey questionnaires from ERP project managers in Korea. We find that perceived exogenous risks with regard to ERP projects influence volatility and additionally find that ERP project managers prefer contract options of the project when the volatility of the project is expected to be high. We expect that this work will not only validate theoretical propositions but help project managers consider ERP options strategically based on these factors.

Development of Preliminary Design Model for Ultra-Large Container Ships by Genetic Algorithm

  • Han, Song-I;Jung, Ho-Seok;Cho, Yong-Jin
    • International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.233-238
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we carried out a precedent investigation for an ultra-large container ship, which is expected to be a higher value-added vessel. We studied a preliminary optimized design technique for estimating the principal dimensions of an ultra-large container ship. Above all, we have developed optimized dimension estimation models to reduce the building costs and weight, using previous container ships in shipbuilding yards. We also applied a generalized estimation model to estimate the shipping service costs. A Genetic Algorithm, which utilized the RFR (required freight rate) of a container ship as a fitness value, was used in the optimization technique. We could handle uncertainties in the shipping service environment using a Monte-Carlo simulation. We used several processes to verify the estimated dimensions of an ultra-large container ship. We roughly determined the general arrangement of an ultra-large container ship up to 1500 TEU, the capacity check of loading containers, the weight estimation, and so on. Through these processes, we evaluated the possibility for the practical application of the preliminary design model.

Weather Patterns and Acid Rain at Kimhae Area (김해지역의 산성강우와 기압유형)

  • 박종길;황용식
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 1999
  • This study was carried out to investigate the characteristics of acidity in the precipitation and weather patterns that were influenced it at Kimhae area from March, 1992 to June, 1994. The range of pH value in the precipitation at Kimhae is 3.45 to 6.80 and the average is pH 4.62, and the major anion components associated with acidity in the precipitation are $Cl^-, SO_4^{-2}, NO_3^-$. These distributions are to be expected the influence of industrialization such as, urbanization and construction of industrial complex at Kimhae area and the long range trasporting of air pollutants from China. The weather patterns governing the acid rain at Kimhae were classified broadly into four types(Cyclone(type I-a, type I-b), Migratory Anticyclone(type II), Tropical Cyclone(type III), Siberia High(type IV) and weather pattern which had the most occurrence frequency of acid rain was type I-a and the average pH value of precipitation in this pattern was 4.45, and we are found that the source area of air mass which was accompanied with high acidic precipitation in Kimhae was the central China include with Peking through the analysis of surface weather maps, 850 hPa wind fields, and the streamline analyses.

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Preliminary Evaluation of a Proposed Marine Ranching Project in Korea (우리 나라 바다목장화 사업의 예비적 경제성 평가)

  • 표희동
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.199-216
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    • 1998
  • An economic appraisal of a proposed marine ranching project is analysed using capital budgeting model such as net present value(NPV) and internal rate of return( IRR) as well as sensitivity analysis and goal seeking model. Of the factors for economic appraisal, direct benefits are to be determined by estimated harvest, prices and costs incurred by catching fishes, and indirect benefits include the additional economic effect of recreational fishing. And judging the worth of these project options depends upon the choice of discount rate of which 8.5% is recommended here. On the basis of estimated production, prices and costs the project is expected to yield NPV=615 million won and IRR=8.8%, which is quite accepted for an economic feasibility, under the first scenario, and NPV= -127 million won and IRR=7.93%, which is rejected, under the second scenario. Sensitivity analysis has been performed by calculating the switching value and sensitivity indicator in respect of the main project parameters. The results suggest that the project NPV and IRR are especially sensitive to fishes(rock fish and other rock fish) prices and fixed costs. Finally goal seeking analysis is carried out in order to reach a desired level of performance like NPV=0 in respect of the amount of hatchery-reared juverniles, the prices and the discount rate.

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Production of Mannitol Using Leuconostoc mesenteroides NRRL B-1149

  • Kim, Chang-Yong;Lee, Jin-Ha;Kim, Byung-Hoon;Yoo, Sun-Kyun;Seo, Eun-Seong;Cho, Kab-Su;Donal F. Day;Kim, Doman
    • Biotechnology and Bioprocess Engineering:BBE
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.234-236
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    • 2002
  • A process for the production of mannitol from fructose (5% to 25%) using Leuconostoc mesenteroides NRRL B-1149 was investigated. Fermentations were carried out In batch or fed-batch fermentations without aeration at 28$\^{C}$, pH 5.0. When 5% fructose was used In batch culture fermentation, the yield of mannitol was 78% of that expected theoretically. When the frurtose concentration was Increased to 10%, the yield dropped to 59.6% of the theoretical value. However, In the fed-batch culture, using 10% fructose, the yield was 81.9% of the theoretical value. In a 15% fruttose fed-batch culture, with 5% fructose being added initially and the other 10% fructose being added as a continuous supply the final yield was 83.7% of the theoretical yield. When 20% fructose was used In the same manner, the yield was 89.5% of theoretical yield.

Some Recent Results of Approximation Algorithms for Markov Games and their Applications

  • 장형수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computational and Applied Mathematics Conference
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    • 2003.09a
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    • pp.15-15
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    • 2003
  • We provide some recent results of approximation algorithms for solving Markov Games and discuss their applications to problems that arise in Computer Science. We consider a receding horizon approach as an approximate solution to two-person zero-sum Markov games with an infinite horizon discounted cost criterion. We present error bounds from the optimal equilibrium value of the game when both players take “correlated” receding horizon policies that are based on exact or approximate solutions of receding finite horizon subgames. Motivated by the worst-case optimal control of queueing systems by Altman, we then analyze error bounds when the minimizer plays the (approximate) receding horizon control and the maximizer plays the worst case policy. We give two heuristic examples of the approximate receding horizon control. We extend “parallel rollout” and “hindsight optimization” into the Markov game setting within the framework of the approximate receding horizon approach and analyze their performances. From the parallel rollout approach, the minimizing player seeks to combine dynamically multiple heuristic policies in a set to improve the performances of all of the heuristic policies simultaneously under the guess that the maximizing player has chosen a fixed worst-case policy. Given $\varepsilon$>0, we give the value of the receding horizon which guarantees that the parallel rollout policy with the horizon played by the minimizer “dominates” any heuristic policy in the set by $\varepsilon$, From the hindsight optimization approach, the minimizing player makes a decision based on his expected optimal hindsight performance over a finite horizon. We finally discuss practical implementations of the receding horizon approaches via simulation and applications.

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RCS Numerical Simulation of Stealth Modified Three-Surface Aircraft

  • Cheng, Liangliang;Yue, Kuizhi;Xing, CuiFang;Yu, Dazhao
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.101-108
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    • 2016
  • The RCS characteristics of stealth modified three-surface aircraft are analyzed in this paper. Prototype A is built with CATIA software and the three-dimensional digital models of modified stealth three-surface B and C are also designed based on carrier-based aircraft Su-33; the numerical simulation of RCS characteristics of three-surface aircraft is conducted with RCSAnsys software based on physical optics method and the method of equivalent currents; The following results are obtained by comparative analysis and mathematical statistics: (1) by the use of physical optics method and equivalent electromagnetic current method, the scattering intensity for each part of the model and RCS characteristic of the aircraft can be analyzed efficiently and accurately; (2) compared with model A, the mean RCS value of model B is reduced to 14.1% in forward direction and 48.1% in lateral direction; (3) compared with model A, the mean RCS value of model C decreases to 11.4% in forward direction and 21.6% in lateral direction. The results are expected to provide theoretical basis and technical support to the conceptual design of aircraft and stealth technology research.

Measurements of Whole-body Vibration Exposed from UH60-Helicopter and Their Analysis Results (UH60 헬기 조종사의 피폭진동 측정 및 평가 결과)

  • Cheung, Wan-Sup;Byeon, Joo-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.132-137
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    • 2005
  • This paper addresses what amount of whole-body vibration is exposed to pilots of UH60 helicopters during flight. To measure the whole-body exposed from the feet and seat, the 12-axis vibration measurement system was used. It enables simultaneous measurement of vibration exposure from the body contact area of the feet, hip and back. The measured 12-axis vibration signals are exploited to the comfort level of UH60 helicopters during flight. It is shown that the evaluated ride value is close to $0.74{\sim}0.79m/s^2$ and that it is equivalent to the semantic scale of 'fairly uncomfortable'. To assess the health effects of whole-body vibration exposed to pilots of UH60 helicopters during their flight, the rms-based and VDV(vibration dose value)-based evaluation results of measured four-axis vibration signals are shown in this work. The fatigue-decreased proficiency limit, whose level is half of the exposure limit, is expected to come after the two-hour flight. The exposure limit is shown to reach after the 10-hour flight.

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Highspeed Train : Sound Power and Noise Propagation Characteristics (고속철도의 소음 특성과 전파현상)

  • 김정태;은희준
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.349-355
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    • 1996
  • For a rail traffic noise, a typical source has a length of 200m - 400m so that the noise pollution areas have been located in the transition regions where the sound level drops between 3dB/dd and 6dB/dd. Therefore, in this region, parameters such as a horizontal distance from the track, the geometry of the ground surface, the environmental effect, and the boundary impedance condition play import roles, especially in our nation's situation. In this study, modelling techniques for the finite length of noise source have been investigated in order to evaluate the rail traffic noise level. Then. noise correction value .${\Delta}$SPL for various location in the track region is represented by the non-dimensionalized horizontal and parallel distance from the track. As an application, a high speed train is examined. Beas on the noise data measured for a Eurostar in France, the sound power value per unit length $H_1$is calcuated. It turns out that$H_1$is 109 dB. Overall sound power from the highspeed train to be serviced in our country is expected to 135 dBA.

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