• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Stock Return

Search Result 62, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

A Test on the Volatility Feedback Hypothesis in the Emerging Stock Market (신흥주식시장에서의 변동성반응가설 검정)

  • Kim, Byoung-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.191-234
    • /
    • 2009
  • This study examined on the volatility feedback hypothesis through the use of threshold GARCH-in-Mean (GJR-GARCH-M) model developed by Glosten, Jaganathan, and Runkle (1993) in the stock markets of 14 emerging countries during the period of January, 1996 to May, 2009. On this study, I found successful evidences which can support the volatility feedback hypothesis through the following three estimation procedures. First, I found relatively strong positive relationship between the expected market risk premiums and their conditional standard deviations from the GARCH-M model in the basis of daily return on each representative stock market index, which is appropriate to investors' risk-averse preferences. Second, I can also identify the significant asymmetric time-varying volatility originated from the investors' differentiated reactions toward the unexpected market shocks by applying the GJR-GARCH-M model and further find the lasting positive risk aversion coefficient estimators. Third, I derived the negative signs of the regression coefficient of unpredicted volatility on the stock market return by re-applying the GJR-GARCH-M model after I controlled the positive effect of predicted volatility through including the conditional standard deviations from the previous GARCH-M model estimation as an independent explanatory variable in the re-applied new GJR-GARCH-M model. With these consecutive results, the volatility feedback effect was successfully tested to be effective also in the various emerging stock markets, although the leverage hypothesis turned out to be insufficient to be applied to another source of explaining the negative relationship between the unexpected volatility and the ex-post stock market return in the emerging countries in general.

  • PDF

The Impact of Adopting XBRL(eXtensible Business Reporting Language) on Information Asymmetry in Capital Markets (재무공시에서 XBRL 도입이 정보비대칭에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구)

  • Yi, Sung-Wook;Hwang, Seung-June;Shinn, Yong-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.35-48
    • /
    • 2011
  • In this paper, we have studied the impact of adopting XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) on information asymmetry in capital markets with the additional research on the usefulness of XBRL data how to improve the quality of accounting information. From the Kosdaq XBRL service, the samples are selected including 38 adopted companies and the 30 non-adopted companies for the paired analysis. The daily stock return volatility (VOLA) as independent variable and other several controlling variables have been added for the regression analysis to measure the impact on information asymmetry in capital markets. he analytical result indicated that the asymmetry hypotheses that XBRL data will give a significant impact on the capital market and will reduce the volatility, which are expected in the hypotheses. This is the first analytical research on the capital market and its impacts to the capital market from adopting XBRL based accounting information. Additionally, the analysis showed the impacts on the reporting cycle of accounting information and its usefulness of accounting data itself.

KOSPI 200 ESG Index incorporation and market response (코스피 200 ESG 지수 편입과 시장반응)

  • Oh, Sang-Hui;Hwang, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.19 no.12
    • /
    • pp.175-182
    • /
    • 2021
  • Focusing on the recently announced "KOSPI 200 ESG Index," this study intends to examine whether the "KOSPI 200 ESG Index" has any relevance to stock prices. Specifically, it was empirically analyzed whether companies included in the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return of stock prices due to incorporation into the index. As for the research method, the case study was conducted using the return by the market model using the coefficient estimated by the OLS for the normal expected return. The study results are summarized as follows. First, the initial incorporation of a company into the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed significant positive(+) average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return. Second, the incorporation of a company into the KOSPI 200 ESG index showed significant positive(+) average abnormal return and cumulative average abnormal return. Through this study, it was confirmed that investors in the market are aware of ESG indicators as non-financial information, not just financial information. In addition, it can be said that the contribution of this study to the fact that investors perceive ESG index as information for investment. This study differs in that it uses the latest ESG index, but at the same time, it has limitations in that the study period is short and the study sample is limited.

Distribution Financial Performance of Corporate as an Impact of Green Accounting Regulation

  • Dwi ORBANINGSIH
    • Journal of Distribution Science
    • /
    • v.21 no.10
    • /
    • pp.77-84
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to determine the impact of green accounting on the distribution of company financial performance. Green Accounting is seen as an accounting approach that considers the environmental impact of business activities and the distribution of financial performance which is expected to provide great benefits to the company. Research Design Data and Methodology: The population of this study is 168 manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2018 to 2020. The research theory uses the Legitimacy Theory and the Shareholder Theory. Research data were analyzed using multiple regression models with purposive sampling. Green Accounting in this study uses environmental cost proxies using Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). Financial performance uses the Return on Equity (ROE) proxy. Results: research shows that the influence of green accounting can provide important input to operational managers in manufacturing companies in making decisions regarding environmental costs and environmental protection that will provide economic benefits for the company. In addition, these findings also clarify the great benefits of green accounting policies for a company's production process. Conclusion: Green Accounting has a long-term impact through the company's financial performance. Green Accounting can be the basis for companies in deciding whether to invest or not.

The Admissible Multiperiod Mean Variance Portfolio Selection Problem with Cardinality Constraints

  • Zhang, Peng;Li, Bing
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.118-128
    • /
    • 2017
  • Uncertain factors in finical markets make the prediction of future returns and risk of asset much difficult. In this paper, a model,assuming the admissible errors on expected returns and risks of assets, assisted in the multiperiod mean variance portfolio selection problem is built. The model considers transaction costs, upper bound on borrowing risk-free asset constraints, cardinality constraints and threshold constraints. Cardinality constraints limit the number of assets to be held in an efficient portfolio. At the same time, threshold constraints limit the amount of capital to be invested in each stock and prevent very small investments in any stock. Because of these limitations, the proposed model is a mix integer dynamic optimization problem with path dependence. The forward dynamic programming method is designed to obtain the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, to evaluate the model, our result of a meaning example is compared to the terminal wealth under different constraints.

The Predictive Power of Implied Volatility of Portfolio Return in Korean Stock Market (한국주식시장 내재변동성의 포트폴리오 수익률 예측능력에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Shi-Yong;Kim, Doo-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.12 no.12
    • /
    • pp.5671-5676
    • /
    • 2011
  • Volatility Index is the index that represents future volatility of underlying asset implied in option price and expected value of market that measures the possibility of stock price's change expected by investors. The Korea Exchange announces a volatility Index, VKOSPI, since April, 13, 2009. This paper used daily data from January, 2002 through December, 2008 and tested power of Volatility index for future returns of portfolios sorted by size, book-to-market equity and beta. As a result, VKOSPI has the predictive power to future returns and then VKOSPI may be determinants of returns. Also if beta is included when sorting portfolio, the predictive power of VKOSPI is stronger for future portfolio returns.

The Determination Factors of Mutual Fund Return (한국주식시장에서 주식형 펀드의 성과결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Bum-Jin
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-107
    • /
    • 2007
  • In this study, I analyzed determinant factors of mutual fund return. The samples was distributed into three types according to the ratio of included stocks in funds. The proxies of mutual funds were set up three ways(returns of fund). As a result of the analysis, I found that growth positively affect to fund return, abnormal return and adjusted abnormal return in all samples. While, according to three types of sample, expected and unexpected fund cash flows had differently effect on fund return. Inferentially, it seemed that the ratio of included stocks in fund was the cause of that. But price pressure hypothesis are not supported. In conclusion, it was not found the possibility of stock market disturbance in this analysis.

  • PDF

Information Spillover Effects from Macroeconomic Variables to Hotel·Leisure Stock Index (거시경제변수의 호텔·레저 주가지수에 대한 정보이전효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Soo-Kyung;Yu, Seo-Young;Byun, Youngtae
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.212-223
    • /
    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to verify information spillover effects using returns of macroeconomic variables and hotel leisure stock index daily data from January 4, 2000 to December 30, 2015. The findings and implications of the research can be summarized as follows. First, based on time-varying AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) models no evidence of statistically significant conditional mean and volatility spillover effects from returns of macroeconomic variables on the hotel leisure stock index was observed. In addition, no evidence of price volatility spillover from macroeconomic variables on the hotel leisure market was observed. Second, it was discovered that there exists a significantly negative relationship between the return of ER and hotel leisure stock prices, but a positive relationship between the KOSPI and hotel leisure stock prices. Finally, the study also found that was a significantly positive relationship between the volatility of DUB and hotel leisure market, and an adversely negative relationship between the volatility of ER and hotel leisure market. The results of this study are expected to contribute by providing useful information for investment strategies, as well as for risk management for investors and managers.

The Gains To Bidding Firms' Stock Returns From Merger (기업합병의 성과에 영향을 주는 요인에 대한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Kap
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.23
    • /
    • pp.41-74
    • /
    • 2007
  • In Korea, corporate merger activities were activated since 1980, and nowadays(particuarly since 1986) the changes in domestic and international economic circumstances have made corporate managers have strong interests in merger. Korea and America have different business environments and it is easily conceivable that there exists many differences in motives, methods, and effects of mergers between the two countries. According to recent studies on takeover bids in America, takeover bids have information effects, tax implications, and co-insurance effects, and the form of payment(cash versus securities), the relative size of target and bidder, the leverage effect, Tobin's q, number of bidders(single versus multiple bidder), the time period (before 1968, 1968-1980, 1981 and later), and the target firm reaction (hostile versus friendly) are important determinants of the magnitude of takeover gains and their distribution between targets and bidders at the announcement of takeover bids. This study examines the theory of takeover bids, the status quo and problems of merger in Korea, and then investigates how the announcement of merger are reflected in common stock returns of bidding firms, finally explores empirically the factors influencing abnormal returns of bidding firms' stock price. The hypotheses of this study are as follows ; Shareholders of bidding firms benefit from mergers. And common stock returns of bidding firms at the announcement of takeover bids, shows significant differences according to the condition of the ratio of target size relative to bidding firm, whether the target being a member of the conglomerate to which bidding firm belongs, whether the target being a listed company, the time period(before 1986, 1986, and later), the number of bidding firm's stock in exchange for a stock of the target, whether the merger being a horizontal and vertical merger or a conglomerate merger, and the ratios of debt to equity capital of target and bidding firm. The data analyzed in this study were drawn from public announcements of proposals to acquire a target firm by means of merger. The sample contains all bidding firms which were listed in the stock market and also engaged in successful mergers in the period 1980 through 1992 for which there are daily stock returns. A merger bid was considered successful if it resulted in a completed merger and the target firm disappeared as a separate entity. The final sample contains 113 acquiring firms. The research hypotheses examined in this study are tested by applying an event-type methodology similar to that described in Dodd and Warner. The ordinary-least-squares coefficients of the market-model regression were estimated over the period t=-135 to t=-16 relative to the date of the proposal's initial announcement, t=0. Daily abnormal common stock returns were calculated for each firm i over the interval t=-15 to t=+15. A daily average abnormal return(AR) for each day t was computed. Average cumulative abnormal returns($CART_{T_1,T_2}$) were also derived by summing the $AR_t's$ over various intervals. The expected values of $AR_t$ and $CART_{T_1,T_2}$ are zero in the absence of abnormal performance. The test statistics of $AR_t$ and $CAR_{T_1,T_2}$ are based on the average standardized abnormal return($ASAR_t$) and the average standardized cumulative abnormal return ($ASCAR_{T_1,T_2}$), respectively. Assuming that the individual abnormal returns are normal and independent across t and across securities, the statistics $Z_t$ and $Z_{T_1,T_2}$ which follow a unit-normal distribution(Dodd and Warner), are used to test the hypotheses that the average standardized abnormal returns and the average cumulative standardized abnormal returns equal zero.

  • PDF

Trading Algorithm Selection Using Time-Series Generative Adversarial Networks (TimeGAN을 활용한 트레이딩 알고리즘 선택)

  • Lee, Jae Yoon;Lee, Ju Hong;Choi, Bum Ghi;Song, Jae Won
    • Smart Media Journal
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.38-45
    • /
    • 2022
  • A lot of research is being going until this day in order to obtain stable profit in the stock market. Trading algorithms are widely used, accounting for over 80% of the trading volume of the US stock market. Despite a lot of research, there is no trading algorithm that always shows good performance. In other words, there is no guarantee that an algorithm that performed well in the past will perform well in the future. The reason is that there are many factors that affect the stock price and there are uncertainties about the future. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a model using TimeGAN that predicts future returns well and selects algorithms that are expected to have high returns based on past records of the returns of algorithms. We use TimeGAN becasue it is probabilistic, whereas LSTM method predicts future time series data is deterministic. The advantage of TimeGAN probabilistic prediction is that it can reflect uncertainty about the future. As an experimental result, the method proposed in this paper achieves a high return with little volatility and shows superior results compared to many comparison algorithms.