• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Returns

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The Comparative Study on the Efficiency of Kunsan Port (군산항만의 효율성 비교연구)

  • Nah, Ho-Soo;Kim, Hyun-Cho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.277-300
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    • 2009
  • By using data envelopment analysis(DEA) this research measures the efficiency of Korea's seven middle-sized seaports and their Malmquist productivity from 1998 to 2007. Under the assumption of CRS(constant returns to scale) and VRS(variable returns to scale), seaports' ranking of efficiency are measured. Kunsan Port is confirmed as a middle-performed port in the various measurements. Important finding facts are as follows. 1)Kunsan Port has the efficiency level from 53% to 57% of efficient ports' level under the assumption of CRS and VRS. 2)In terms of average efficiency level, the gap among these 7 seports' efficiency levels has been widened during the period from 1998 to 2007. 3)Kunsan Port has shown the characteristics of DRS more frequently in terms of returns to scale. 4) Kunsan Port's average total factor productivity has been lower at the rate of 0.7% during the period from 1998 to 2007. 5)Kunsan Port has shown technical progress at the rate of 3.1% in this period. In future research the more and better data will be expected to improve the understanding of Korean seaports' efficiency characteristics.

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Comparative Study of Automatic Trading and Buy-and-Hold in the S&P 500 Index Using a Volatility Breakout Strategy (변동성 돌파 전략을 사용한 S&P 500 지수의 자동 거래와 매수 및 보유 비교 연구)

  • Sunghyuck Hong
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.57-62
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    • 2023
  • This research is a comparative analysis of the U.S. S&P 500 index using the volatility breakout strategy against the Buy and Hold approach. The volatility breakout strategy is a trading method that exploits price movements after periods of relative market stability or concentration. Specifically, it is observed that large price movements tend to occur more frequently after periods of low volatility. When a stock moves within a narrow price range for a while and then suddenly rises or falls, it is expected to continue moving in that direction. To capitalize on these movements, traders adopt the volatility breakout strategy. The 'k' value is used as a multiplier applied to a measure of recent market volatility. One method of measuring volatility is the Average True Range (ATR), which represents the difference between the highest and lowest prices of recent trading days. The 'k' value plays a crucial role for traders in setting their trade threshold. This study calculated the 'k' value at a general level and compared its returns with the Buy and Hold strategy, finding that algorithmic trading using the volatility breakout strategy achieved slightly higher returns. In the future, we plan to present simulation results for maximizing returns by determining the optimal 'k' value for automated trading of the S&P 500 index using artificial intelligence deep learning techniques.

Attention to the Internet: The Impact of Active Information Search on Investment Decisions (인터넷 주의효과: 능동적 정보 검색이 투자 결정에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Young Bong;Kwon, YoungOk;Cho, Wooje
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.117-129
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    • 2015
  • As the Internet becomes ubiquitous, a large volume of information is posted on the Internet with exponential growth every day. Accordingly, it is not unusual that investors in stock markets gather and compile firm-specific or market-wide information through online searches. Importantly, it becomes easier for investors to acquire value-relevant information for their investment decision with the help of powerful search tools on the Internet. Our study examines whether or not the Internet helps investors assess a firm's value better by using firm-level data over long periods spanning from January 2004 to December 2013. To this end, we construct weekly-based search volume for information technology (IT) services firms on the Internet. We limit our focus to IT firms since they are often equipped with intangible assets and relatively less recognized to the public which makes them hard-to measure. To obtain the information on those firms, investors are more likely to consult the Internet and use the information to appreciate the firms more accurately and eventually improve their investment decisions. Prior studies have shown that changes in search volumes can reflect the various aspects of the complex human behaviors and forecast near-term values of economic indicators, including automobile sales, unemployment claims, and etc. Moreover, search volume of firm names or stock ticker symbols has been used as a direct proxy of individual investors' attention in financial markets since, different from indirect measures such as turnover and extreme returns, they can reveal and quantify the interest of investors in an objective way. Following this line of research, this study aims to gauge whether the information retrieved from the Internet is value relevant in assessing a firm. We also use search volume for analysis but, distinguished from prior studies, explore its impact on return comovements with market returns. Given that a firm's returns tend to comove with market returns excessively when investors are less informed about the firm, we empirically test the value of information by examining the association between Internet searches and the extent to which a firm's returns comove. Our results show that Internet searches are negatively associated with return comovements as expected. When sample is split by the size of firms, the impact of Internet searches on return comovements is shown to be greater for large firms than small ones. Interestingly, we find a greater impact of Internet searches on return comovements for years from 2009 to 2013 than earlier years possibly due to more aggressive and informative exploit of Internet searches in obtaining financial information. We also complement our analyses by examining the association between return volatility and Internet search volumes. If Internet searches capture investors' attention associated with a change in firm-specific fundamentals such as new product releases, stock splits and so on, a firm's return volatility is likely to increase while search results can provide value-relevant information to investors. Our results suggest that in general, an increase in the volume of Internet searches is not positively associated with return volatility. However, we find a positive association between Internet searches and return volatility when the sample is limited to larger firms. A stronger result from larger firms implies that investors still pay less attention to the information obtained from Internet searches for small firms while the information is value relevant in assessing stock values. However, we do find any systematic differences in the magnitude of Internet searches impact on return volatility by time periods. Taken together, our results shed new light on the value of information searched from the Internet in assessing stock values. Given the informational role of the Internet in stock markets, we believe the results would guide investors to exploit Internet search tools to be better informed, as a result improving their investment decisions.

The Introduction of KOSPI 200 Stock Price Index Futures and the Asymmetric Volatility in the Stock Market (KOSPI 200 주가지수선물 도입과 주식시장의 비대칭적 변동성)

  • Byun, Jong-Cook;Jo, Jung-Il
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.191-212
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    • 2003
  • Recently, there is a growing body of literature that suggests that information inefficiency is one of the causes of the asymmetric volatility. If this explanation for the asymmetric volatility is appropriate, then innovations, such as the introduction of futures, may be expected to impact the asymmetric volatility of stock market. As transaction costs and margin requirements in the futures market are lower than those in the spot market, new information is transmitted to futures prices more quickly and affects spot prices through arbitrage trading with spots. Also, the merit of the futures market may attract noise traders away from the spot market to the futures market. This study examines the impact of futures on the asymmetry of stock market volatility. If the asymmetric volatility is significant lower post-futures and exist in the futures market, it has validity that the asymmetric volatility is caused by information inefficiency in the spot market. The data examined are daily logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 stock price index from January 4, 1993 to December 26, 2000. To examine the existence of the asymmetric volatility in the futures market, logarithmic returns on KOSPI 200 futures are used from May 4, 1996 to December 26, 2000. We used a conditional mode of TGARCH(threshold GARCH) of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkel(1993). Pre-futures the spot market exhibits significant asymmetric responses of volatility to news and post-futures asymmetries are significantly lower, irrespective of bear market and bull market. The results suggest that the introduction of stock index futures has an effect on the asymmetric volatility of the spot market and are inconsistent with leverage being the sole explanation of asymmetry. However, it is found that the volatility of futures is not so asymmetric as expected.

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The Influence of Market in Agricultural Spatial Organization (농업공간조직에서 시장의 영향)

  • Lee, Sang-Yool
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 1997
  • Although modern versions of the traditional Von $Th{\ddot{u}}nen$ theory have contributed to a description of spatial organization in agriculture, they did not incorporate the market mechanism as an integral part of location theory. This deficiency has been indicated and new mathematical structure has been proposed elsewhere by the author. The closed model, which simultaneously considered a basic principle of supply and demand, exposed a computational complexity. Based on the problem, this study attempts to extend market mechanism in order to consider the influence of city (market) size in agricultural location theory. To theoretically explore the economic relationship in a location theory, this study simplifies agricultural activity as just two activities in one-dimensional spatial economy. The problem has been solved by equating total supply and demand of agricultural products, and then by determining each agricultural price from the relationship. All of the mathematical problems have been arranged in matrix form. First, the traditional model and closed model have been compared by quantitative comparative statics which provides the sensitivity test for each model. The results have shown that the traditional model shows a relatively excessive change in land use, besides the deficiency of a constant agricultural price. Second, the effects of the size of market town and its population increase were examined, using the closed model. In this case, the price of agricultural product is increased, and the land use is extended outward. This proves that locational rent is related to the expansion of land use. Third, environmental uncertainty was associated with the closed model, in order to further consider the difference of farmers attitude in strategic perspective. In this study, two extreme attitudes, which reflects the maximum average expected returns and the maximum guaranteed returns, were examined in their land use and their effects on the prices of agricultural products. It was shown that the two farmers attitudes can be interconnected with location theory. Due to the exogenous data, the differences in the area of land use and total quantities of agricultural products were not clearly shown in this study. However, it was shown that the land use pattern is very different. That is, maximum guaranteed return model reveals a mixed land use pattern around the market town. Basically, this study shows some spatial and economic implications related to Von $Th{\ddot{u}}nen$ model.

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Developing an Investment Framework based on Markowitz's Portfolio Selection Model Integrated with EWMA : Case Study in Korea under Global Financial Crisis (지수가중이동평균법과 결합된 마코위츠 포트폴리오 선정 모형 기반 투자 프레임워크 개발 : 글로벌 금융위기 상황 하 한국 주식시장을 중심으로)

  • Park, Kyungchan;Jung, Jongbin;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.75-93
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    • 2013
  • In applying Markowitz's portfolio selection model to the stock market, we developed a comprehensive investment decision-making framework including key inputs for portfolio theory (i.e., individual stocks' expected rate of return and covariance) and minimum required expected return. For estimating the key inputs of our decision-making framework, we utilized an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which places more emphasis on recent data than the conventional simple moving average (SMA). We empirically analyzed the investment results of the decision-making framework with the same 15 stocks in Samsung Group Funds found in the Korean stock market between 2007 and 2011. This five-year investment horizon is marked by global financial crises including the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the European sovereign-debt crisis. We measure portfolio performance in terms of rate of return, standard deviation of returns, and Sharpe ratio. Results are compared with the following benchmarks : 1) KOSPI, 2) Samsung Group Funds, 3) Talmudic portfolio based on the na$\ddot{i}$ve 1/N rule, and 4) Markowitz's model with SMA. We performed sensitivity analyses on all the input parameters that are necessary for designing an investment decision-making framework : smoothing constant for EWMA, minimum required expected return for the portfolio, and portfolio rebalancing period. In conclusion, appropriate use of the comprehensive investment decision-making framework based on the Markowitz's model integrated with EWMA proves to achieve outstanding performance compared to the benchmarks.

An Empirical Study on Investment Performance using Properties of Realized Range-Based Volatility and Firm-Specific Volatility (실현범위변동성(RRV) 및 기업고유변동성의 속성과 투자성과 측정)

  • Byun, Youngtae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2014
  • This paper explores the relationship between firm-specific volatility and some firm characteristics such as size, the market-to-book ratio of equity, PER, PBR, PCR, PSR and turnover in KOSDAQ market. In addition, I investigate whether portfolios with difference to realized range-based volatility and firm-specific volatility have different investment performance using CAPM and FF-3 factor model. The main findings of this study can be summarized as follows. First, firm-specific volatility have mostly positive relationship between firm-specific volatility and some firm characteristics. Second, this study found that realized range-based volatility and firm-specific volatility are positively related to expected return. It means that portfolios with high idiosyncratic volatility have significantly higher expected return than portfolios with low firm-specific volatility.

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Effect of Information Availability on Expected Returns (정보량이 주가수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sun-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.67-82
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 시장에 정보가 별로 알려져 있지 않은 증권이 많이 알려져 있는 증권보다 높은 추정위험 때문에 더 높은 수익률을 제공한다는 이론적 모형들이 시사하는 바에 기초하여, 수익률이 각 증권에 대해 시장에 알려져 있는 정보량과 역의 관계에 있다는 가설을 세우고 이를 실증분석하였다. 본 연구는 또한 기업규모가 정보량과 정의 상관관계가 있다는 점에서 기업규모보다 정확한 정보량 변수가 포함되면 기업규모효과는 사라질 것이라는 가설도 검증하였다. 미국의 상장주식들을 대상으로 횡단면 실증분석을 실행한 결과, 정보량이 평균수익률의 횡단면을 설명하는 것으로 나타난다. 정보량은 기업규모 변수가 동시에 포함될 경우에는 설명력이 떨어지지만 1월에는 기업규모효과와는 별도로 기대수익률을 설명하는 것으로 나타난다. 한편 기업규모의 변화 또는 기관투자자 지분율의 변화시 수익률이 변하는지에 대한 F-검정을 실시한 경우에도, 정보량은 1월중에는 기업규모 효과와는 달리 통계적으로 유의한 수익률 차이를 보이고 있다. 이와 같은 실증결과들은 정보량 효과가 어느 정도 존재함을 의미한다. 이와 같은 결론은 기존의 CAPM 관련 실증연구들이 주장하는 ${\beta}$의 무용성에 대한 논쟁은 아직 끝나지 않았음을 시사한다. 즉, 각 증권에 대한 모든 정보가 시장에 완전히 알려지지 않은 현실하에서는 추정위험을 감안한 ${\beta}$를 이용하여야만 CAPM을 검증할 수 있는 것이다.

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The Effect of Information Security Certification Announcement on the Market Value of Firms (기업의 정보보호 인증이 기업가치에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Jaeyoung;Jung, Woo-Jin;Kim, Beomsoo
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.51-69
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    • 2016
  • Recently, many Korean firms have suffered financial losses and damaged firm's trust due to information security incidents. Hence, a lot of firms have realized the importance of the information security. In particular, the demand for information security certification has increased. This study examined the effect of information security certification using the event study methodology. Our research shows that the announcement of the information security certification significantly influences the market value of the corresponding firm. The certified firms rise, on average, o.4993% (-2 day), 0.5462% (+1 day) of their market value. Further, we found that the financial sector in our data showed a 1.4% higher abnormal returns than the nonfinancial sector. On the other hand, whether a firm first acquired the information security certification is not significant. Our paper presents that it is possible to analyze the effect of the information security certification using the event study. We are expected to be used in making a decision for the investment of information security. Also, our results indicate that the firm which have acquired the information security certification should actively announce that fact.

Modeling Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Cuong Thanh;NGUYEN, Manh Huu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001-1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study's results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.