• 제목/요약/키워드: Expected Attack

검색결과 215건 처리시간 0.026초

통일 한국의 적정 군사력에 관한 연구 - 분쟁 시나리오와 상대적 균형전략을 중심으로 - (A Study on Appropriate Military Strength of Unified Korea (Focused on relative balance strategy and conflict scenario))

  • 홍봉기
    • 안보군사학연구
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    • 통권13호
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    • pp.687-738
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    • 2016
  • To prepare for the complicated international relationship regarding Korean Peninsula after reunification, this thesis started off with the awareness that Unified Korea should build its international posture and national security at an early stage by determining its appropriate military strength for independent defense and military strategies that Unified Korea should aim. The main theme of this thesis is 'The research on appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military'. To derive appropriate military strength of Unified Korea, this research focuses on conflict scenario and relative balance strategy based on potential threats posed by neighboring countries, and this is the part that differentiates this research from other researches. First of all, the main objective of the research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to secure defense sufficiency. For this, this research will decide efficient military strategy that Unified Korea should aim. Than by presuming the most possible military conflict scenario, this research will judge the most appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to overcome the dispute. Second, after deciding appropriate military strength, this research will suggest how to operate presumed military strength in each armed force. The result of this thesis is as in the following. First, Unified Korea should aim 'relative balance strategy'. 'Relative balance strategy' is a military strategy which Unified Korea can independently secure defense sufficiency by maintaining relative balance when conflicts occur between neighboring countries. This strategy deters conflicts in advance by relative balance of power in certain time and place. Even if conflict occurs inevitably, this strategy secures initiative. Second, when analyzing neighboring countries interest and strategic environment after unification, the possibility of all-out war will be low in the Korean Peninsula because no other nation wants the Korean Peninsula to be subordinated to one single country. Therefore appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military would be enough when Unified Korea can achieve relative balance in regional war or limited war. Third, Northeast Asia is a region where economic power and military strength is concentrated. Despite increasing mutual cooperation in the region, conflicts and competition to expand each countries influence is inherent. Japan is constantly enhancing their military strength as they aim for normal statehood. China is modernizing their military strength as they aspire to become global central nation. Russia is also enhancing their military strength in order to hold on to their past glory of Soviet Union as a world power. As a result, both in quality and quantity, the gap between military strength of Unified Korea and each neighboring countries is enlarged at an alarming rate. Especially in the field of air-sea power, arms race is occurring between each nation. Therefore Unified Korea should be equipped with appropriate military strength in order to achieve relative balance with each threats posed by neighboring countries. Fourth, the most possible conflicts between Unified Korea and neighboring countries could be summarized into four, which are Dokdo territorial dispute with Japan, Leodo jurisdictional dispute with China, territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korea Peninsula with China and disputes regarding marine resources and sea routes with Russia. Based on those conflict scenarios, appropriate military strength for Unified Korea is as in the following. When conflict occurs with Japan regarding Dokdo, Japan is expected to put JMSDF Escort Flotilla 3, one out of four of its Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Escort Fleet, which is based in Maizuru and JMSDF Maizuru District. To counterbalance this military strength, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of jurisdictional conflict with China concerning Leodo, China is expected to dispatch its North Sea fleet, one out of three of its naval fleet, which is in charge of the Yellow Sea. To response to this military action, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korean Peninsula with China, it is estimated that out of seven Military Region troops, China will dispatch two Military Region troops, including three Army Groups from Shenyang Military Region, where it faces boarder with the Korean Peninsula. To handle with this military strength, Unified Korea needs six corps size ground force strength, including three corps of ground forces, two operational reserve corps(maneuver corps), and one strategic reserve corps(maneuver corps). When conflict occurs with Russia regarding marine resources and sea routes, Russia is expected to send a warfare group of a size that includes two destroyers, which is part of the Pacific Fleet. In order to balance this strength, Unified Korea naval power requires one warfare group including two destroyers. Fifth, management direction for the Unified Korean military is as in the following. Regarding the ground force management, it would be most efficient to deploy troops in the border area with china for regional and counter-amphibious defense. For the defense except the border line with china, the most efficient form of force management would be maintaining strategic reserve corps. The naval force should achieve relative balance with neighboring countries when there is maritime dispute and build 'task fleet' which can independently handle long-range maritime mission. Of the three 'task fleet', one task fleet should be deployed at Jeju base to prepare for Dokdo territorial dispute and Leodo jurisdictional dispute. Also in case of regional conflict with china, one task fleet should be positioned at Yellow Sea and for regional conflict with Japan and Russia, one task fleet should be deployed at East Sea. Realistically, Unified Korea cannot possess an air force equal to neither Japan nor China in quantity. Therefore, although Unified Korea's air force might be inferior in quantity, they should possess the systematic level which Japan or China has. For this Unified Korea should build air base in island areas like Jeju Island or Ullenong Island to increase combat radius. Also to block off infiltration of enemy attack plane, air force needs to build and manage air bases near coastal areas. For landing operation forces, Marine Corps should be managed in the size of two divisions. For island defense force, which is in charge of Jeju Island, Ulleung Island, Dokdo Island and five northwestern boarder island defenses, it should be in the size of one brigade. Also for standing international peace keeping operation, it requires one brigade. Therefore Marine Corps should be organized into three divisions. The result of the research yields a few policy implications when building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea. First, Unified Korea requires lower number of ground troops compared to that of current ROK(Republic of Korea) force. Second, air-sea forces should be drastically reinforced. Third, appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military should be based on current ROK military system. Forth, building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea should start from today, not after reunification. Because of this, South Korea should build a military power that can simultaneously prepare for current North Korea's provocations and future threats from neighboring countries after reunification. The core of this research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to realize relative balance that will ensure defense sufficiency from neighboring countries threats. In other words, this research should precisely be aware of threats posed by neighboring countries and decide minimum level of military strength that could realize relative balance in conflict situation. Moreover this research will show the path for building appropriate military strength in each armed force.

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정신질환자의 타해(他害)사고와 의료과오책임 (Psychotherapist's Liability for Failure to Protect Third Person)

  • 손흥수
    • 의료법학
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.331-393
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    • 2010
  • Psychiatrists who treat violent or potentially violent patients may be sue for failure to control aggressive outpatients and for the discharge of violent inpatients. Psychiatrists may be sued for failing to protect society from the violent acts of their patients if it was reasonable for the psychiatrists to have known or should have known about the patient's violent tendencies and if the psychiatrists could have done something that could have safeguarded in public. The courts of a number of jurisdictions have imposed a duty to protect the potential victims of a third party on persons or institutions with a special relationship to that party. In the landmark case of Tarasoff v Regents of University of California, the California Supreme Court held that the special relationship between a psychotherapist and a patient imposes on the therapist a duty to act reasonably to protect the foreseeable victims of the patient. Under Tarasoff, when a therapist has determined, or under applicable professional standards should determine, that a patient poses a serious threat of violence to another, he incurs an obligation to use reasonable care to protect the intended victim against such danger. In addition to a Tarasoff type of action based on a duty to warn or protect foreseeable victims of psychiatric outpatients, courts have also imposed liability on mental health care providers based on their custody of patients known to have violent propensities. The legal duty in such a case has been stated to be that where the course of treatment of a mental patient involves an exercise of "control" over him by a physician who knows or should know that the patient is likely to cause bodily harm to others, an independent duty arises from that relationship and falls on the physician to exercise that control with such reasonable care as to prevent harm to others at the hands of the patient. After going through a period of transition, from McIntosh, Thompson and Brady case, finally, the narrow rule of requiring a specific or foreseeable threat of violence against a specific or identifiable victim is the standard threshold or trigger element in the majority of states. Judgements on these kinds of cases are not enough yet in Korea, so that it may be too early to try find principles in these cases, however it is hardly wrong to read the same reasons of Tarasoff in the judgements of Korea district courts. To specific, whether a psychiatric institute was liable for violent behavior toward others depends upon the patients conditions, circumstances and the extent of the danger the patients poses to others; in short, the foreseeability of a specific or identifiable victim. In this context if a patient exhibit strong violent behavior toward others, constant observation should be required. Negligence has been found not exist, however, when a patient abruptly and unexpectedly attack others or unidentifiable victim. And the standard of conduct that is required to meet the obligation of "due care" is based on what the "reasonable practitioner" would do in like circumstances. The standard is not one of excellence or superior practice; it only requires that the physician exercise that degree of skill and care that would be expected of the average qualified practitioner practicing under like circumstances. All these principles have been established in cases of the U.S.A and Japan. In this article you can find the reasons which you can use for psychotherapist's liability for failure to protect third person in Korea as practitioner.

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제4차 산업혁명 시대의 항공 테러리즘 양상 및 국내 항공테러 대응체계 발전방향 (The Trend of Aviation Terrorism in the 4th Industrial Revolution Period and the Development Direction for Domestic Counter Terrorism of Aviation)

  • 황호원;김승우
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.155-188
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    • 2017
  • 제4차 산업혁명은 한편으로는 인류에게 새로운 문명 패러다임을 구축할 수 있는 긍정적인 기회를 제공해 주고 있다. 그러나 다른 한편으로는 제4차 산업혁명으로 인해 '구글 알파고(Google Alpha Go)'와 같은 인공지능(AI)이 혁명적으로 진보하면서 인간의 고유한 능력마저도 '실리콘칩(silicon chip)'으로 대체되고, 물리적 공간에서 사람의 온기를 느끼면서 의사소통할 수 있는 기회가 축소됨에 따라 인간의 존재감이 약화되었으며, 사이코패스(psychopath)와 같이 인간을 게임하듯이 사냥하는 강력범죄가 증가하는 등 사회적 병리현상이 더욱 심화될 수 있다는 우려감도 확산되고 있다. 더구나 최근의 국제 테러리즘은 무고한 사람들을 무차별적으로 공격하는 '반사회적 강력범죄'와 유사한 형태로 전개되고 있고, 이에 따라 테러단체가 제4차 산업혁명이 제공하는 문명의 이기를 테러의 수단으로 악용하고, 제4차 산업혁명으로 인해 나타나는 사회적 병리현상을 전략적으로 이용할 개연성은 갈수록 증대되고 있다. 따라서 향후 항공 테러리즘의 패러다임 또한 항공기보다는 공항시설 및 이용객들을 공격하는 방식으로 변화될 것으로 전망된다. 왜냐하면 공항시설은 갈수록 지능화 무인화되고, 많은 사람들이 밀집해 있는 '다중이용시설'이며, 사이코 패스적(psychopathic) 테러리스트들이 쉽게 접근할 수 있기 때문이다. 이러한 관점에서 볼 때 우리의 항공테러 대응체계는 (1) 테러방지법상 대테러센터의 한계 (2) 항공테러와 일반테러의 초동조치 관할권 충돌 개연성 상존 (3) 효율적인 현장 지휘통제 제한 (4) 항공보안과 대테러 사무의 협의기구 이원화 (5) 정부부처별 대테러 정보수집 기능 분산 (6) 공항 일반구역(Land side)의 보안체계 취약 (7) 공항운영 시스템상의 사이버 보안태세 미흡 (8) 항공 테러리즘에 대한 국제협력 네트워크 구축 미흡 등 여러 가지 측면에서 취약한 부분이 많이 있다. 따라서 국내 '항공테러' 대응체계를 제4차 산업혁명 시대의 국제 테러리즘에 선제적으로 대응할 수 있도록 개선할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 이를 위한 대안으로 (1) 항공특별사법경찰대 창설(조직편성 측면) (2) 공항 일반구역(Land side)의 보안태세 강화 및 현장 지휘체계의 실효성 보장을 위한 항공보안법 및 테러방지법 정비(법령정비 측면) (3) 사이버 공간에서의 '테러 대응' 역량 강화(보안태세 측면) (4) 항공 테러리즘에 대한 국제협력 네트워크 구축(국제협력 측면) 등을 제시하였다.

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관상동맥 우회수술후 신경계 합병증의 위험인자 (Risk Factors of Neurologic Complications After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting)

  • 박계현;채헌;박충규;전태국;박표원
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • 제32권9호
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    • pp.790-798
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    • 1999
  • 배경: 최근 관상동맥 우회수술의 조기 성적이 향상됨에 따라 뇌 경색을 비롯한 신경계 합병증이 수술 후 경과를 결정하는 중요한 합병증으로서 비중이 증가하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 관상동맥 우회수술 후에 발생하는 신경계 합병증의 발생 양상을 분석하고 그 위험인자를 규명하고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 관상동맥 우회수술을 시행받은 351명의 환자를 대상으로 신경계 합병증의 발생 여부와 형태, 위험인자를 분석하였다. 신경계 합병증은 새로운 뇌 경색이 확진된 경우와 수술후 의식 및 지남력의 완전한 회복이 24시간 이상 지연된 경우로 정의하였다. 결과: 대상 환자중 18명(5.1%)에서 신경계 합병증이 발생하였으며 그 중 뇌 경색이 확진된 환자는 9명(2.6%)이었다. 운동마비를 동반한 뇌 경색이 4명에서 발생하였고 4명은 정신 지체나 지남력 장애의 형태로 나타났으며 뇌사 판정을 받은 환자가 1명 있었다. 나머지 9명은 뇌 경색의 증거는 발견되지 않았으나 의식 및 지남력의 완전 회복이 지연된 환자들이었다. 통계적 분석 결과 180분 이상의 심폐 바이패스, 수술중 상행 대동맥의 죽상경화반이 진단된 경우, 초음파 검사로 진단된 경동맥 협착, 뇌졸중이나 일과성 뇌허혈의 과거력 등이 단변량 및 다변량 분석 모두에서 의미있는 위험인자로 분석되었다. 그밖에 고령(65세 이상), 흉부 단순 촬영상 대동맥의 석회화가 발견된 경우, 수술중 심근 경색 등도 단변량 분석시 의미있는 위험인자였다. 대동맥궁 삽관이나 single clamp technique 등 신경학적 합병증의 예방에 기여할 것으로 기대되었던 수술 수기상의 변형은 합병증 발생 빈도에 별다른 영향을 미치지 않은 것으로 분석되었으며 경동맥 협착의 정도 역시 합병증 발생 빈도와 상관관계가 없었다. 결론: 이상의 결과로 관상동맥 우회수술 후의 신경계 합병증의 발생 원인은 복합적이긴 하지만 근본적으로는 동맥계의 동맥경화성 병변과 밀접한 관계가 있음을 확인하였다. 따라서 합병증의 예방을 위해서는 수술전 동맥경화성 병변에 대한 전신적인 평가와 함께 고위험군 환자들의 경우 적극적인 수술 수기의 변형을 검토할 필요가 있다고 판단된다.

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토픽모델링을 활용한 COVID-19 학술 연구 기반 연구 주제 분류에 관한 연구 (A study on the classification of research topics based on COVID-19 academic research using Topic modeling)

  • 유소연;임규건
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제28권1호
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    • pp.155-174
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    • 2022
  • 2020년 1월부터 2021년 10월 현재까지 COVID-19(치명적인 호흡기 증후군인 코로나바이러스-2)와 관련된 학술 연구가 500,000편 이상 발표되었다. COVID-19와 관련된 논문의 수가 급격하게 증가함에 따라 의료 전문가와 정책 담당자들이 중요한 연구를 신속하게 찾는 것에 시간적·기술적 제약이 따르고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 LDA와 Word2vec 알고리즘을 사용하여 방대한 문헌의 텍스트 자료로부터 유용한 정보를 추출하는 방안을 제시한다. COVID-19와 관련된 논문에서 검색하고자 하는 키워드와 관련된 논문을 추출하고, 이를 대상으로 세부 주제를 파악하였다. 자료는 Kaggle에 있는 CORD-19 데이터 세트를 활용하였는데, COVID-19 전염병에 대응하기 위해 주요 연구 그룹과 백악관이 준비한 무료 학술 자료로서 매주 자료가 업데이트되고 있다. 연구 방법은 크게 두 가지로 나뉜다. 먼저, 47,110편의 학술 논문의 초록을 대상으로 LDA 토픽 모델링과 Word2vec 연관어 분석을 수행한 후, 도출된 토픽 중 'vaccine'과 관련된 논문 4,555편, 'treatment'와 관련된 논문 5,791편을 추출한다. 두 번째로 추출된 논문을 대상으로 LDA, PCA 차원 축소 후 t-SNE 기법을 사용하여 비슷한 주제를 가진 논문을 군집화하고 산점도로 시각화하였다. 전체 논문을 대상으로 찾을 수 없었던 숨겨진 주제를 키워드에 따라 문헌을 분류하여 토픽 모델링을 수행한 결과 세부 주제를 찾을 수 있었다. 본 연구의 목표는 대량의 문헌에서 키워드를 입력하여 특정 정보에 대한 문헌을 분류할 수 있는 방안을 제시하는 것이다. 본 연구의 목표는 의료 전문가와 정책 담당자들의 소중한 시간과 노력을 줄이고, 신속하게 정보를 얻을 수 있는 방법을 제안하는 것이다. 학술 논문의 초록에서 COVID-19와 관련된 토픽을 발견하고, COVID-19에 대한 새로운 연구 방향을 탐구하도록 도움을 주는 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대한다.