• 제목/요약/키워드: Expectation hypothesis

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A Variability Analysis on the Flatfish Production and Revenue using Expectation Hypotheses and GARCH Model

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo;Yoon, Ji-Young
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2017
  • This work studies the variability of flatfish sales revenue. The theoretical analysis draws functions for equilibrium price and quantity using expectation hypotheses. The functions include unpredictable phenomenon with dummy variable and GARCH. The equilibrium function, using adaptive expectation hypothesis, contains the independent variables of supply and demand, while the equilibrium function, embodying rational expectation hypothesis, includes only the independent variables of supply side, because the demand side disappears by the information extraction process theoretically, if economic subjects build the expectation rational. The empirical analysis shows: the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the variability of revenue with the adaptive expectation hypothesis. In the case when the model has a rational expectation hypothesis, the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the revenue (the mean equation of GARCH model). This study indicates that there is the variability in flatfish production and sales revenue, and the spillover effect between them. The result can help to build of the rational system for the fishery income stability.

주식시장에 대한 경제주체들의 기대 변화에 관한 연구 - 외환위기 전후의 통화량 변화의 영향을 중심으로 - (A Study on the Expectation Change of Economic Subjects in Stock Market - Focusing on Effect of Change in Money Supply Before and After a Currency Crisis-)

  • 김지열
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제21권1호
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 2004
  • 본 논문에서는 주식시장(Stock Market)에 대한 통화량(money supply)의 관계에 대해 통화량의 파급 시차와 파급 구조 등을 밝히려는 기존의 연구와는 달리, 새고전학파(new classical macroeconomics)와 신케인지안(new Keynesian macroeconomics)의 각기 다른 기대설정에 대하여 합리적기대가설(rational expectation hypothesis)과 효율적시장가설(efficient market hypothesis)을 수용하여 가설을 설정하였다. 즉, 통화량 변화에 대해 경제주체들이 합리적으로 기대를 한다면 경제주체들은 통화량 변화에 대해 주식시장에 대하여 즉각적으로 반응을 할 것이라는 가설 1과 주식시장에 대한 경제주체들의 기대가 외환위기 이전과 이후에 변화가 있을 것이라는 가설 2를 설정하여, ADF 검정법(augmented Dickey-Fuller test)과 PP 검정법(Phillips-Perron test)으로 단위근을 확인 한 후, 요한슨 공적분검정(Johansen Procedure)과 백터오차수정모형(vector error correction models)으로 외환위기 이전과 이후 기간에 대하여 각각 검정을 하였다.

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프랜차이즈 가맹본부의 지원, 통제가 가맹점사업자의 만족 및 반응전략에 미치는 영향 (Effects of the Support and Control of Franchisors on Franchisees' Satisfaction and Response Strategies)

  • 권용덕;우종필
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제12권8호
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study was based on a theoretical consideration of the structural relationship between the support and control of the franchisor and the satisfaction and strategic response (voice, loyalty, exit, neglect) of the franchisee. First, based on the preceding research, this study systematically organized the type of support and control of the franchisor. Second, the study examined the effects of a franchisor's support and control on the expectancy disconfirmation between affiliated franchisees' expectations before a franchise agreement and performance after operating an affiliated store. Third, the study looked into the effects of expectancy disconfirmation relating to a franchisor's support and control on an affiliated franchisees' general satisfaction. Fourth, this study examined the influence of the general satisfaction of a franchisee on affiliated franchisees' response strategies. Research design, data, and methodology - In this study, the population comprised the nation's franchisors, and the sample comprised franchisees conducting business in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. A self-administered questionnaire was used; the author and examiner explained the study's parameters to the interviewees in advance, to lessen the rate of rejection of the answers and to maintain reliability. The author distributed 350 copies of the questionnaire and collected 327 copies (93.4%). The author removed 54 copies of the sample, as these copies belonged to franchisees that were not registered by the Fair Trade Commission and/or were thought to have either defects or inadequate answers. The author selected an effective sample of 273 copies to enter data and to do the statistical analysis. Results - Both a reliability analysis and a confirmatory factor analysis were performed to measure reliability and validity, and a structural equation model was used to conduct the hypothesis test and investigate the models. The hypothesis was tested (Table 5). The models had a suitable fit, for instance, χ2 = 447.663(df = 212, p = .000), χ2/df = 2.112, GFI = .881, AGFI = .858, RMR = .083, RMSEA = .067, NFI = .932, and CFI = .961. The hypothesis test results were as follows. Hypothesis 1 was accepted (C.R. = -2.339, p = .019). Hypothesis 2 was accepted (C.R. = 15.213, p = .000). Hypothesis 3 was accepted (C.R. = -2.631, p = .006). Hypothesis 4 was accepted (C.R. = 16.271, p = .000). Hypothesis 5 was accepted (C.R. = 2.391, p = .017). Hypothesis 6 was accepted (C.R. = 5.777, p = .000). Hypothesis 7 was accepted (C.R. = 17.153, p = .000). Hypothesis 8 was accepted (C.R. = 24.746, p = .000). Hypothesis 9 was accepted (C.R. = -10.150, p = .000). Hypothesis 10 was accepted (C.R. = -12.124, p = .000). Conclusions - The research results showed that expectations for a franchisor's support and control had a significant influence on expectation disconfirmation in a negative way, whereas the performance of support and control were found to have a significant influence on expectation disconfirmation in a positive way. In addition, the expectation disconfirmation of support and control was found to have a significant influence on satisfaction of franchisees in a positive way. Generally, regarding the research on control, control is found to have a negative influence on the satisfaction of franchisees, but this study proves that control is found to affect it in a positive way through conformity.

교육서비스 품질과 교육성과의 기대일치여부가 행동의도에 미치는 영향: 글로벌기업의 TOEIC사업을 중심으로 (Influence of the Education Service Quality and Result Expectations on Behavioral Intention: Focus on the TOEIC Business of a Global Company)

  • 강호계;송인암;황희중
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The TOEIC test has been leading the change in the quality and the globalization of companies for about last 30 years. The TOEIC test is taken by about two million people each year and is used as a criterion to select new employees in companies or government offices, for performance ratings, and for overseas posting selections. Universities also use TOEIC test in various ways. Since the TOEIC test is used for the selection of new students for admission, transferring extra credits, scholarships, graduation certification, and admission of international students studying abroad, many universities all over the country provide students with TOEIC study lectures through their own language institutes. Despite the fact, there has been no research on the service quality or even the current situation of these institutes. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the factors that impact TOEIC lecture service quality and analyzes the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education on intentional behavior. Research design, data, methodology - Data was collected by administering a survey to current TOEIC students from different university language institutes. The survey questionnaire comprised of a five-point Likert scale. The demographic analysis was conducted using the frequency analysis method and the factor analysis was conducted to verify the validity of questionnaire over any variable. The reliability analysis was conducted to verify the reliability of the results. Besides, multiple regression analysis, regression analysis, and mediated effect verification were also conducted. For education service quality, four different independent variables such as reliability, response, conviction, and sympathy were considered using the SERVQUAL survey model. Based on the research models, the study hypotheses below were formulated in order to recognize an effect relationship between the variables. The four hypotheses are, "the hypothesis on education service quality and TOEIC study result expectation," "the hypothesis on education service quality and behavioral intention," "the hypothesis on study result expectation and behavioral intention," and "the hypothesis on study result expectation and mediated effect." Results - The results are as follows. First, the factors like response, conviction, and sympathy have a positive influence on TOEIC study result expectations. Second, the TOEIC study result expectation has a positive influence on the factors of behavioral intention such as re-sign up, positive word-of-mouth, "loyalty towards school." Third, it was verified that the mediated effect on behavioral intention was influenced by education service quality at university foreign language institute, while the study result expectation has only a partial mediated effect. Conclusions - The implications of this study are summarized as follows: First, it suggests a new research model for the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education in the university language institutes on the behavioral intention. Second, it has established a relationship between the education service quality and study result expectation by verifying the mediated effect on them.

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KOSPI 200 주가지수옵션시장에서 내재변동성 기간구조의 기대가설검정에 관한 연구 (A Empirical Study on Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatility in Kospi 200 Options Market)

  • 강병영;민경태
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.91-105
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구는 합리적 기대가설에 입각하여 내재변동성의 장기변화율과 단기변화율사이의 관계에 대해 Campa and Chang(1995)의 모형을 토대로 분석하였다. 합리적기대가설이란 옵션시장 참가자들이 기대하는 장기내재변동성이 미래단기의 내재변동성을 결정한다는 가설이다. 1999년 1월부터 2003년 12월까지 한국의 KOSPI 200 주가지수옵션시장에서 장기내재변동성과 단기내 재변동성과의 관계를 분석해 본 결과 우리나라 주가지수 옵션시장에서는 기대가설을 지지하지 않는다는 결론을 도출하게 되었다. 하지만 기대가설은 그 자체가 내포하고 있는 무시할 수 없는 중요한 의미를 지닌다는 것을 발견하였다. 첫째, 장기내재변동성 변화율이 기대 미래단기내재변동성 변화율과 같은 방향으로 움직인다는 것과 둘째, 단기변동성에 대한 장기변동성의 증가가 다음 장기변동성에 있어서는 증가 혹은 감소를 동반한다는 것을 분석하게 되었다. 즉, 어떠한 규칙적인 사이클을 찾을 수는 없었다는 것이다.

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만성관절염환자의 원인지각과 치료지시이행에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Relationship between Causual Perceptions and Compliance in Patients having Chronic Arthritis)

  • 임병주
    • 근관절건강학회지
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    • 제2권2호
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    • pp.168-184
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    • 1995
  • This deductive-survey study was undertaken in order to examine if there were relationship between causal perceptions, expectation for the cure and compliance. The sampling method was a non-probability, purposive sampling technique. The participants of this study was 195 volunteers 1) who have been diagnosed as having chronic arthritis and 2) who were at the rheumatis center of one university hospital in Seoul between September 18th to September 25th 1989. This instruments used for this study were the compliance scale developed by Choi and causal perception scale developed by the researcher. Analysis of data was done using pass analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient. The result of study were as follow : Hypothesis 1 : "It's correlated that causal perception, expectation for cure and compliance" was accepted. (F=4.85, p< .05) Hypothesis 2 : "It's correlated that causal perception, expectation for cure and with depression" was partially accepted. Total age group-worry and anxiety (r=.1580, p<.001) After 40-function of immunity (r=.1731, p<.05) warry and anxiety (r=.1730, p<.001). In the relationship between general characteristics and the variables, age group correlated with compliance and causal perception.

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건강신념 및 효능기대증진 프로그램이 류마티스 관절염환자의 골다공증 예방행위에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of the Health Belief and Efficacy Expectation Promoting Program on Osteoporosis Preventive Health Behavior in Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis)

  • 이은남
    • 근관절건강학회지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.174-190
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    • 1998
  • Osteoporosis has been known as a common complication of rheumatoid arthritis and a major preventable health problem. Lots of studios have demonstrated that changes in life style can help delay or prevent osteoporosis. Therefore nursing intervention related osteoporosis prevention have consisted of education programs aimed at changing dietary and exercise habit. However knowledge gained from education haven't always leaded to behavior change. Therefore it is important to consider other psychological variables in effecting behavior change. Numerous research have found self efficacy and health belief to be an important factor in individual decision making behavior. The purpose of the study was to develop health belief and efficacy expectation promoting program based on Health Belief Model & Self Efficacy Model and to investigate its effects in women with rheumatoid arthritis. For this purpose, one group pretest-post design was used. The subject of the study were 16 women with rheumatoid arthritis in Pusan city and data collection was carried out from April, 1997 to May, 1998. The intervention program was consisted of educating on osteoporosis and enhancing and reinforcing self efficacy by verbal persuasion during the period of 4 weeks. The instruments were used to collect data in this study were Osteoporosis Health Belief Scale, Osteoporosis Self Efficacy Scale, and Osteoporosis Preventive Behavior Scale. Data was analyzed by Wilcoxon signed rank test using SPSS $PC^+$ program. The results are as follows : 1) The behavior should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-3.5162, p=.0004, diet : Z=-3.2942, p=.0010, exercise). 2) The sub-hypothesis that perceived sensitivity should be increased after intervention was supported (Z=-2.3854, p=.0171). 3) The sub-hypothesis that perceived severity should be increased after intervention was rejected(Z=-1.4327, p=.1520). 4) The sub-hypothesis that perceived benefit should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-2.6410, p=.0083). 5) The sub-hypothesis that perceived barrier should be decreased after intervention was supported (Z=-2.4138, p=.0158). 6) The sub-hypothesis that efficacy expectation should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-3.5162, p=.0004). As a conclusion, it was found that health belief and self efficacy promoting program was an effective nursing intervention for preventing osteoporosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

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유방자가검진을 위한 효능기대 증진 프로그램의 개발 및 효과 (The Study on the Development of Self Efficacy Expectation Promoting Program and It's Effect for Breast Self Examination)

  • 정명옥;태영숙
    • 종양간호연구
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2002
  • Breast self-exam is easiest, safe and cost effective to be recommended as an important method for early detection of breast cancer. This experimental research with non-equal control design was to develop the efficacy expectation program for breast self-exam based on Bandura's self-efficacy information source. The study objects selected from two local churches in Busan. Twenty from S church were selected as a study group, twenty from D church as a control group. Efficacy expectation promoting program was based on Bandura's efficacy promoting source and was two hour lecture including slide, video tape, demonstration, pamphlet. After this, there were individual interviews with them and consultations through telephone f or verbal persuasion on the weekly basis between the first week and the fifth week. The effect from the experiment were measured on the first week after education and on the fifth week. Data from control group was collected during the period from Jan 11, 2 001 to Feb 15, 2001 and data from study group was collected during the period from Jan 12, 2001 to Feb 16, 2001. Measurement instrument for this study was developed by the author with the advice of specialist in order to measure self-efficacy and breast self-exam practice. Data analysis was done by using SPSS/10.0 PC program $with^2-$ test. t-test and ANCOVA. Proved results for hypothesis were as follows. 1) It was supported that "Study group educated by efficacy expectation promoting program has higher score in change rat e of self-efficacy than control group." (1 week after education F=18.395, p=.000 5 weeks after education F=28.972, p=.000) 2) It was supported that "Study group educated by efficacy expectation promoting program has higher score in change rate of exam practice than control group." (1 week after education F=37.984, p=.000 5 weeks after education F=28.972, p=.000) In conclusion, efficacy expectation promoting program for breast self-exam developed by this study may increase s elf-efficacy and breast self-exam practice.

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의복만족모형의 경로 연구 -상표수준과 소비자관여의 기대선행 변수를 중심으로- (A Study on the Path of Clothing Satisfaction Model - brand levels and consumer involvement -)

  • 홍금희;이은영
    • 한국의류학회지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.443-455
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the theoretical model on the clothing satisfaction. Research problems are as following; 1. To identify a causal model on the clothing satisfaction. 2. To examine the causal model by the brand levels. 3. To examine the causal model by the consumer characteristics. The empirical study of the above research problems is carried out by the longitudinal survey. The subjects selected for the final analysis are 362 women living in Seoul and Pusan. The results of our analysis are as following; 1. The main causal course of the clothing satisfaction is that the brand level and the consumer expectation $\rightarrow$ the expectation $\rightarrow$ the perceived performance ($\rightarrow$ the disconfirmation) $\rightarrow$ the clothing satisfaction. Those relevant variables explain $70\%$ of the clothing satisfac-tion variance. Especially, the influence of the perceived performance appears to be greater than that of the disconfirmation. 2. According to our analysis, the expectation influences the clothing satisfaction indirectly through the perceived performance. Especially, the normative expectation exhibits the contrast effect on the disconfirmation, while the predictive expectation exhibits the assimilation effect on the perceived performance. 3. The clothing satisfaction model differs by the brand levels (high price brand vs. moderate price brand) and by the consumer involvement levels (high involvement vs. low involvement). The relevant variables explain $65\%$ of the clothing satisfaction variance in the high price brand, while they explain $77\%$ in the moderate price brand. In the high involvement group, the relevant variables explain $78\%$ of the clothing satisfaction variance and $60\%$ in the low involvement group. In both involvement groups, the most critical direct variable is the perceived perfor-mance. In conclusion, we find that the clothing satisfaction can be explained by three constructs, the expectation, the perceived performance and the disconfirmation. The hypothesis that the two dimensions of the expectation explain the clothing satisfaction better is empirically supported in our study. Finally, we find that the clothing satisfaction models differ between two brand levels and consumer involvement levels.

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관계 품질과 귀인이 서비스 복구 기대와 구전에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Relationship Quality and Attribution on Service Recovery Expectation and Word of Mouth)

  • 윤성욱;박성일
    • 서비스연구
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    • 제9권4호
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 2019
  • 관여도가 높은 서비스 산업 분야에서 소비자가 지각하는 관계 품질과 서비스 실패의 복구 수준은 서비스 제공자의 이미지와 매출액에 직접적인 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인이다. 특히 성공적인 관계마케팅 전략의 실행과 서비스 실패에 대한 효과적인 복구는 맞춤형 서비스를 기대하는 고객들에게 더욱 많은 만족을 제공하며 기업과 소비자와의 관계를 강화시킨다. 본 연구는 이러한 선행연구들 기반으로, 서비스 실패의 심각성을 관계마케팅과 귀인이론의 관점에서 접근하여 서비스 복구 기대와 구전에 영향을 미치는 변수간의 인과관계를 규명하고자 진행되었다. 실증분석을 위하여 헤어살롱 이용 고객 360명을 대상으로 서비스 실패상황이라는 시나리오를 제시하여 설문조사를 실시한 후에, 불성실한 응답을 제외한 총 333부의 설문지를 최종 분석에 사용하였다. 구조방정식 모형을 이용하여 가설을 검정하였고, 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 소비자가 서비스 실패의 심각성을 크게 지각할수록 관계 품질은 나빠진다는 가설이 규명되었다. 둘째, 소비자가 서비스 제공자와 좋은 관계를 유지할수록 서비스 실패의 원인을 일시적이고 통제 불가능한 것이라고 간주한다는 사실도 확인하였다. 셋째, 소비자가 서비스 실패 상황을 일시적인 것으로 지각할수록 서비스 복구에 대한 기대 수준도 높아질 것이라는 가설이 지지되었다. 넷째, 소비자는 서비스 제공자와 관계가 좋을수록 높은 서비스 복구 수준을 기대하며, 동시에 서비스 제공자에 대하여 긍정적인 구전을 할 가능성이 높아진다는 사실이 규명되었다. 본 연구의 이러한 결과는, 서비스 기업의 고객 지향적 비즈니스 모델 개발에 실무적인 도움을 줄 수 있으며 고관여 분야의 서비스 마케팅 연구를 위한 새로운 방향을 제시하였다는 점에서 학문적 의의를 찾을 수 있다.