• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expectation hypothesis

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A Variability Analysis on the Flatfish Production and Revenue using Expectation Hypotheses and GARCH Model

  • Yoon, Hyung-Mo;Yoon, Ji-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2017
  • This work studies the variability of flatfish sales revenue. The theoretical analysis draws functions for equilibrium price and quantity using expectation hypotheses. The functions include unpredictable phenomenon with dummy variable and GARCH. The equilibrium function, using adaptive expectation hypothesis, contains the independent variables of supply and demand, while the equilibrium function, embodying rational expectation hypothesis, includes only the independent variables of supply side, because the demand side disappears by the information extraction process theoretically, if economic subjects build the expectation rational. The empirical analysis shows: the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the variability of revenue with the adaptive expectation hypothesis. In the case when the model has a rational expectation hypothesis, the variability of flatfish production has a spillover effect on the revenue (the mean equation of GARCH model). This study indicates that there is the variability in flatfish production and sales revenue, and the spillover effect between them. The result can help to build of the rational system for the fishery income stability.

A Study on the Expectation Change of Economic Subjects in Stock Market - Focusing on Effect of Change in Money Supply Before and After a Currency Crisis- (주식시장에 대한 경제주체들의 기대 변화에 관한 연구 - 외환위기 전후의 통화량 변화의 영향을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Ji-Yeol
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.125-148
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    • 2004
  • This paper deals with the relationship between money supply and the stock market. However, unlike past works, it has employed a rational expectation hypothesis and an efficient market hypothesis drawn from new classical macroeconomics and new Keynesian macro-economics, respectively. Accordingly, hypothesis 1 states that if economic subjects have rational expectation, they will immediately respond to a change in money supply. On the other hand, hypothesis 2 supposes that the expectation of economic subjects has changed after the currency crisis. This paper has first identified unit root by using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Perron test, then testing both hypotheses by employing the Johansen Procedure and vector error correction model for the periods before and after a currency crisis.

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Effects of the Support and Control of Franchisors on Franchisees' Satisfaction and Response Strategies (프랜차이즈 가맹본부의 지원, 통제가 가맹점사업자의 만족 및 반응전략에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Yong-Deok;Yu, Jong-Pil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.8
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study was based on a theoretical consideration of the structural relationship between the support and control of the franchisor and the satisfaction and strategic response (voice, loyalty, exit, neglect) of the franchisee. First, based on the preceding research, this study systematically organized the type of support and control of the franchisor. Second, the study examined the effects of a franchisor's support and control on the expectancy disconfirmation between affiliated franchisees' expectations before a franchise agreement and performance after operating an affiliated store. Third, the study looked into the effects of expectancy disconfirmation relating to a franchisor's support and control on an affiliated franchisees' general satisfaction. Fourth, this study examined the influence of the general satisfaction of a franchisee on affiliated franchisees' response strategies. Research design, data, and methodology - In this study, the population comprised the nation's franchisors, and the sample comprised franchisees conducting business in Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. A self-administered questionnaire was used; the author and examiner explained the study's parameters to the interviewees in advance, to lessen the rate of rejection of the answers and to maintain reliability. The author distributed 350 copies of the questionnaire and collected 327 copies (93.4%). The author removed 54 copies of the sample, as these copies belonged to franchisees that were not registered by the Fair Trade Commission and/or were thought to have either defects or inadequate answers. The author selected an effective sample of 273 copies to enter data and to do the statistical analysis. Results - Both a reliability analysis and a confirmatory factor analysis were performed to measure reliability and validity, and a structural equation model was used to conduct the hypothesis test and investigate the models. The hypothesis was tested (Table 5). The models had a suitable fit, for instance, χ2 = 447.663(df = 212, p = .000), χ2/df = 2.112, GFI = .881, AGFI = .858, RMR = .083, RMSEA = .067, NFI = .932, and CFI = .961. The hypothesis test results were as follows. Hypothesis 1 was accepted (C.R. = -2.339, p = .019). Hypothesis 2 was accepted (C.R. = 15.213, p = .000). Hypothesis 3 was accepted (C.R. = -2.631, p = .006). Hypothesis 4 was accepted (C.R. = 16.271, p = .000). Hypothesis 5 was accepted (C.R. = 2.391, p = .017). Hypothesis 6 was accepted (C.R. = 5.777, p = .000). Hypothesis 7 was accepted (C.R. = 17.153, p = .000). Hypothesis 8 was accepted (C.R. = 24.746, p = .000). Hypothesis 9 was accepted (C.R. = -10.150, p = .000). Hypothesis 10 was accepted (C.R. = -12.124, p = .000). Conclusions - The research results showed that expectations for a franchisor's support and control had a significant influence on expectation disconfirmation in a negative way, whereas the performance of support and control were found to have a significant influence on expectation disconfirmation in a positive way. In addition, the expectation disconfirmation of support and control was found to have a significant influence on satisfaction of franchisees in a positive way. Generally, regarding the research on control, control is found to have a negative influence on the satisfaction of franchisees, but this study proves that control is found to affect it in a positive way through conformity.

Influence of the Education Service Quality and Result Expectations on Behavioral Intention: Focus on the TOEIC Business of a Global Company (교육서비스 품질과 교육성과의 기대일치여부가 행동의도에 미치는 영향: 글로벌기업의 TOEIC사업을 중심으로)

  • Kang, Ho-Gye;Song, In-Am;Hwang, Hee-Joong
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - The TOEIC test has been leading the change in the quality and the globalization of companies for about last 30 years. The TOEIC test is taken by about two million people each year and is used as a criterion to select new employees in companies or government offices, for performance ratings, and for overseas posting selections. Universities also use TOEIC test in various ways. Since the TOEIC test is used for the selection of new students for admission, transferring extra credits, scholarships, graduation certification, and admission of international students studying abroad, many universities all over the country provide students with TOEIC study lectures through their own language institutes. Despite the fact, there has been no research on the service quality or even the current situation of these institutes. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the factors that impact TOEIC lecture service quality and analyzes the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education on intentional behavior. Research design, data, methodology - Data was collected by administering a survey to current TOEIC students from different university language institutes. The survey questionnaire comprised of a five-point Likert scale. The demographic analysis was conducted using the frequency analysis method and the factor analysis was conducted to verify the validity of questionnaire over any variable. The reliability analysis was conducted to verify the reliability of the results. Besides, multiple regression analysis, regression analysis, and mediated effect verification were also conducted. For education service quality, four different independent variables such as reliability, response, conviction, and sympathy were considered using the SERVQUAL survey model. Based on the research models, the study hypotheses below were formulated in order to recognize an effect relationship between the variables. The four hypotheses are, "the hypothesis on education service quality and TOEIC study result expectation," "the hypothesis on education service quality and behavioral intention," "the hypothesis on study result expectation and behavioral intention," and "the hypothesis on study result expectation and mediated effect." Results - The results are as follows. First, the factors like response, conviction, and sympathy have a positive influence on TOEIC study result expectations. Second, the TOEIC study result expectation has a positive influence on the factors of behavioral intention such as re-sign up, positive word-of-mouth, "loyalty towards school." Third, it was verified that the mediated effect on behavioral intention was influenced by education service quality at university foreign language institute, while the study result expectation has only a partial mediated effect. Conclusions - The implications of this study are summarized as follows: First, it suggests a new research model for the effect of the expectation related to the education service quality and the result of education in the university language institutes on the behavioral intention. Second, it has established a relationship between the education service quality and study result expectation by verifying the mediated effect on them.

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A Empirical Study on Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatility in Kospi 200 Options Market (KOSPI 200 주가지수옵션시장에서 내재변동성 기간구조의 기대가설검정에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Byung-Young;Min, Kyung-Tae
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.91-105
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    • 2005
  • Using Campa and Chang's Expectations Hypothesis model, We test the expectations hypothesis in the term structure of volatilities in options on KOSPI 200 by using daily dosing prices from January 1999 to December 2003. In particular, it addresses whether long-dated volatilities are consistent with expected future short-dated volatilities, assuming rational expectation. Our results do not support the expectations hypothesis : long-term volatilities rise relative to short-term volatilities, but the increases are not matched as predicted by the expectations hypothesis. In addition, an increase in the current long-term volatilities relative to the current short-term volatilities is followed by at a random.

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A Study on the Relationship between Causual Perceptions and Compliance in Patients having Chronic Arthritis (만성관절염환자의 원인지각과 치료지시이행에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Byung-Joo
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.168-184
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    • 1995
  • This deductive-survey study was undertaken in order to examine if there were relationship between causal perceptions, expectation for the cure and compliance. The sampling method was a non-probability, purposive sampling technique. The participants of this study was 195 volunteers 1) who have been diagnosed as having chronic arthritis and 2) who were at the rheumatis center of one university hospital in Seoul between September 18th to September 25th 1989. This instruments used for this study were the compliance scale developed by Choi and causal perception scale developed by the researcher. Analysis of data was done using pass analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient. The result of study were as follow : Hypothesis 1 : "It's correlated that causal perception, expectation for cure and compliance" was accepted. (F=4.85, p< .05) Hypothesis 2 : "It's correlated that causal perception, expectation for cure and with depression" was partially accepted. Total age group-worry and anxiety (r=.1580, p<.001) After 40-function of immunity (r=.1731, p<.05) warry and anxiety (r=.1730, p<.001). In the relationship between general characteristics and the variables, age group correlated with compliance and causal perception.

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The Effect of the Health Belief and Efficacy Expectation Promoting Program on Osteoporosis Preventive Health Behavior in Women with Rheumatoid Arthritis (건강신념 및 효능기대증진 프로그램이 류마티스 관절염환자의 골다공증 예방행위에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Eun-Nam
    • Journal of muscle and joint health
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.174-190
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    • 1998
  • Osteoporosis has been known as a common complication of rheumatoid arthritis and a major preventable health problem. Lots of studios have demonstrated that changes in life style can help delay or prevent osteoporosis. Therefore nursing intervention related osteoporosis prevention have consisted of education programs aimed at changing dietary and exercise habit. However knowledge gained from education haven't always leaded to behavior change. Therefore it is important to consider other psychological variables in effecting behavior change. Numerous research have found self efficacy and health belief to be an important factor in individual decision making behavior. The purpose of the study was to develop health belief and efficacy expectation promoting program based on Health Belief Model & Self Efficacy Model and to investigate its effects in women with rheumatoid arthritis. For this purpose, one group pretest-post design was used. The subject of the study were 16 women with rheumatoid arthritis in Pusan city and data collection was carried out from April, 1997 to May, 1998. The intervention program was consisted of educating on osteoporosis and enhancing and reinforcing self efficacy by verbal persuasion during the period of 4 weeks. The instruments were used to collect data in this study were Osteoporosis Health Belief Scale, Osteoporosis Self Efficacy Scale, and Osteoporosis Preventive Behavior Scale. Data was analyzed by Wilcoxon signed rank test using SPSS $PC^+$ program. The results are as follows : 1) The behavior should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-3.5162, p=.0004, diet : Z=-3.2942, p=.0010, exercise). 2) The sub-hypothesis that perceived sensitivity should be increased after intervention was supported (Z=-2.3854, p=.0171). 3) The sub-hypothesis that perceived severity should be increased after intervention was rejected(Z=-1.4327, p=.1520). 4) The sub-hypothesis that perceived benefit should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-2.6410, p=.0083). 5) The sub-hypothesis that perceived barrier should be decreased after intervention was supported (Z=-2.4138, p=.0158). 6) The sub-hypothesis that efficacy expectation should be increased after intervention was supported(Z=-3.5162, p=.0004). As a conclusion, it was found that health belief and self efficacy promoting program was an effective nursing intervention for preventing osteoporosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

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The Study on the Development of Self Efficacy Expectation Promoting Program and It's Effect for Breast Self Examination (유방자가검진을 위한 효능기대 증진 프로그램의 개발 및 효과)

  • Jung, Myung-Ok;Tae, Young-Sook
    • Asian Oncology Nursing
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.50-60
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    • 2002
  • Breast self-exam is easiest, safe and cost effective to be recommended as an important method for early detection of breast cancer. This experimental research with non-equal control design was to develop the efficacy expectation program for breast self-exam based on Bandura's self-efficacy information source. The study objects selected from two local churches in Busan. Twenty from S church were selected as a study group, twenty from D church as a control group. Efficacy expectation promoting program was based on Bandura's efficacy promoting source and was two hour lecture including slide, video tape, demonstration, pamphlet. After this, there were individual interviews with them and consultations through telephone f or verbal persuasion on the weekly basis between the first week and the fifth week. The effect from the experiment were measured on the first week after education and on the fifth week. Data from control group was collected during the period from Jan 11, 2 001 to Feb 15, 2001 and data from study group was collected during the period from Jan 12, 2001 to Feb 16, 2001. Measurement instrument for this study was developed by the author with the advice of specialist in order to measure self-efficacy and breast self-exam practice. Data analysis was done by using SPSS/10.0 PC program $with^2-$ test. t-test and ANCOVA. Proved results for hypothesis were as follows. 1) It was supported that "Study group educated by efficacy expectation promoting program has higher score in change rat e of self-efficacy than control group." (1 week after education F=18.395, p=.000 5 weeks after education F=28.972, p=.000) 2) It was supported that "Study group educated by efficacy expectation promoting program has higher score in change rate of exam practice than control group." (1 week after education F=37.984, p=.000 5 weeks after education F=28.972, p=.000) In conclusion, efficacy expectation promoting program for breast self-exam developed by this study may increase s elf-efficacy and breast self-exam practice.

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A Study on the Path of Clothing Satisfaction Model - brand levels and consumer involvement - (의복만족모형의 경로 연구 -상표수준과 소비자관여의 기대선행 변수를 중심으로-)

  • Hong Keum Hee;Rhee Eun Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.16 no.4 s.44
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    • pp.443-455
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    • 1992
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the theoretical model on the clothing satisfaction. Research problems are as following; 1. To identify a causal model on the clothing satisfaction. 2. To examine the causal model by the brand levels. 3. To examine the causal model by the consumer characteristics. The empirical study of the above research problems is carried out by the longitudinal survey. The subjects selected for the final analysis are 362 women living in Seoul and Pusan. The results of our analysis are as following; 1. The main causal course of the clothing satisfaction is that the brand level and the consumer expectation $\rightarrow$ the expectation $\rightarrow$ the perceived performance ($\rightarrow$ the disconfirmation) $\rightarrow$ the clothing satisfaction. Those relevant variables explain $70\%$ of the clothing satisfac-tion variance. Especially, the influence of the perceived performance appears to be greater than that of the disconfirmation. 2. According to our analysis, the expectation influences the clothing satisfaction indirectly through the perceived performance. Especially, the normative expectation exhibits the contrast effect on the disconfirmation, while the predictive expectation exhibits the assimilation effect on the perceived performance. 3. The clothing satisfaction model differs by the brand levels (high price brand vs. moderate price brand) and by the consumer involvement levels (high involvement vs. low involvement). The relevant variables explain $65\%$ of the clothing satisfaction variance in the high price brand, while they explain $77\%$ in the moderate price brand. In the high involvement group, the relevant variables explain $78\%$ of the clothing satisfaction variance and $60\%$ in the low involvement group. In both involvement groups, the most critical direct variable is the perceived perfor-mance. In conclusion, we find that the clothing satisfaction can be explained by three constructs, the expectation, the perceived performance and the disconfirmation. The hypothesis that the two dimensions of the expectation explain the clothing satisfaction better is empirically supported in our study. Finally, we find that the clothing satisfaction models differ between two brand levels and consumer involvement levels.

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Impact of Relationship Quality and Attribution on Service Recovery Expectation and Word of Mouth (관계 품질과 귀인이 서비스 복구 기대와 구전에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Sungwook;Park, Seongil
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 2019
  • The relationship quality and recovery of service failures perceived by consumers play an essential role in affecting the service provider's image and sales in terms of the highly involved service industry. In particular, implementation of successful relationship marketing strategies and effective recovery of service failures provide greater satisfaction for customers expecting customized services and reinforce the relationships between the companies and consumers. Based on these previous studies, this research conducted to find out the causal relationship between the variables influencing service recovery expectations and word of mouth(WOM) by approaching the severity of service failures from the perspective of relationship marketing and attribution theory. For the empirical analysis of this research, we conducted a questionnaire surveys of 360 service users of beauty salons, who have experienced in high-involvement services, and utilized 333 questionnaires for the final analysis. The hypothesis was experimented using the Structural Equation Model(SEM), and the results are as follows. First, we identified that the higher the customer perceived the severity of the service failure, the lower the quality of the relationship. Second, we verified that service users observed service failure as a temporary and uncontrollable factor as they distinguished service quality as higher. Third, the hypothesis that customers recognize service failures as a temporary one has a positive impact on service recovery expectation level is determined through empirical analysis. Forth, it was figured out that the higher the perceived quality of the relationship with the service provider, the higher the service recovery level expected by the consumers. At the same time, the hypothesis that optimism for service recovery expectation affects positive word of mouth has been verified. The results of this study help develop the customer-oriented business model of the service companies. Furthermore, the academic significance in that it suggested a new direction for the research of high-involvement service marketing.