• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evidence Theory

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Evidential Analytic Hierarchy Process Dependence Assessment Methodology in Human Reliability Analysis

  • Chen, Luyuan;Zhou, Xinyi;Xiao, Fuyuan;Deng, Yong;Mahadevan, Sankaran
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2017
  • In human reliability analysis, dependence assessment is an important issue in risky large complex systems, such as operation of a nuclear power plant. Many existing methods depend on an expert's judgment, which contributes to the subjectivity and restrictions of results. Recently, a computational method, based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory and analytic hierarchy process, has been proposed to handle the dependence in human reliability analysis. The model can deal with uncertainty in an analyst's judgment and reduce the subjectivity in the evaluation process. However, the computation is heavy and complicated to some degree. The most important issue is that the existing method is in a positive aspect, which may cause an underestimation of the risk. In this study, a new evidential analytic hierarchy process dependence assessment methodology, based on the improvement of existing methods, has been proposed, which is expected to be easier and more effective.

Uncertainty Quantification of Propulsion System on Early Stage of Design (추진체계 개념설계단계에서 불확실성 고려방법에 대한 연구)

  • Ahn, Joongki;Um, Ki In;Lee, Ho-il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2018
  • At the early stages of development of high-speed propulsion systems, associated uncertainties cannot be easily modeled into probabilistic distributions, owing to the lack of test data, cost, and difficulty of simulating real-flight environments on the ground. To tackle this issue, in this research, the combustion efficiencies of dual-combustion ramjet engines are assumed to have been provided by experts and quantified by evidence theory. Using quantified uncertainty, the inlet area and combustor exit are optimized while satisfying reliability margins of thrust and thermal choking. The result shows a reasonable design of the engine under uncertain circumstances.

Purchase Intention of Certified Coffee: Evidence from Thailand

  • UT-THA, Veenarat;LEE, Pai-Po;CHUNG, Rebecca H.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.583-592
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    • 2021
  • This study examines social identity and self-identity as the antecedents of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) model in predicting purchase intention of certified coffee, whereas perceived trustworthiness (PT) is evaluated whether it directly affects intention and/or indirectly through attitude. In addition, ethics and luxury are investigated as the salient beliefs affecting attitude formation in this regard. A face-to-face survey was conducted with 727 coffee consumers in Thailand. Confirmatory factor analysis is applied to assess the adequacy of the model, followed by structural equation modeling to evaluate the hypotheses proposed for the relationships between constructs in an extended TPB model. The results confirm that self-identity is the most influential antecedent on attitude when compared to social identity, and attitude, in turn, is the strongest determinant in predicting purchase intention. PT has a direct positive effect on purchase intention, meanwhile, ethical, luxury beliefs, and PT are confirmed to portrait the attitude formation. As such the marketing campaigns can address manipulating consumers' beliefs on both ethical and luxury aspects as well as PT, along with consumers' social identity and self-identity to fortify a positive attitude toward certified coffee. Then the actual purchase behavior can be foreseen based on empirical evidence.

The Effect of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure on Market Performance: Evidence from Jordan

  • ZRAQAT, Omar;ZUREIGAT, Qasim;AL-RAWASHDEH, Hani Ali;OKOUR, Samer Mohammed;HUSSIEN, Lina Fuad;AL-BAWAB, Atef Aqeel
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.453-463
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    • 2021
  • The current study aims to investigate the relationship between CSRD and firm performance, as an indicator for corporate socially responsible behavior, and corporate market performance of listed companies on the Amman stock exchange (ASE). The study adopts a quantitative methodology and utilizes pooled data sets that was collected following content analysis approach of the annual reports for the period 2014 to 2019. The study sample consists of 42 listed companies. The study ran a multiple regression model in order to capture the relationship between the independent variable CSRD and the dependent variable that is Firm performance which was measured using Tobin's Q. The study also utilized five control variables in order to control the hypothesized relationship between CSRD and Firm Performance. The results indicate a negative but significant relationship between CSRD and corporate market performance measured by Tobin's Q. The results stand against the notion of the business case for CSR, and indicate the opposite position, so, the higher CSRD, the lower will be Tobin's Q. Such results support the notion of the institutional theory, and provide an initial evidence for legitimacy seeking behavior in Jordanian companies. However, the results indicate a lower level of awareness of CSR across investors and market players, which support arguments of the difference in market perceptions towards CSR.

Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis under uncertain and dynamic situations

  • Gao, Xianghao;Su, Xiaoyan;Qian, Hong;Pan, Xiaolei
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.948-958
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    • 2022
  • Since reliability and security of man-machine system increasingly depend on reliability of human, human reliability analysis (HRA) has attracted a lot of attention in many fields especially in nuclear engineering. Dependence assessment among human tasks is a important part in HRA which contributes to an appropriate evaluation result. Most of methods in HRA are based on experts' opinions which are subjective and uncertain. Also, the dependence influencing factors are usually considered to be constant, which is unrealistic. In this paper, a new model based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DSET) and fuzzy number is proposed to handle the dependence between two tasks in HRA under uncertain and dynamic situations. First, the dependence influencing factors are identified and the judgments on the factors are represented as basic belief assignments (BBAs). Second, the BBAs of the factors that varying with time are reconstructed based on the correction BBA derived from time value. Then, BBAs of all factors are combined to gain the fused BBA. Finally, conditional human error probability (CHEP) is derived based on the fused BBA. The proposed method can deal with uncertainties in the judgments and dynamics of the dependence influencing factors. A case study is illustrated to show the effectiveness and the flexibility of the proposed method.

Surface structure of MBE-Grown $\alpha$-$Fe_2O_3$(0001) by Intermediate-Energy X-ray Photoelectron Diffraction

  • 김용주
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 1999.07a
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    • pp.177-177
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    • 1999
  • The surface structure of epitaxial $\alpha$-Fe2O3(0001) grown on $\alpha$-Al2O3(0001) has been investigated using intermediate-energy x-ray photoelectron diffraction. Comparison of experiment with quantum mechanical scattering theory reveals that the surface is Fe-terminated, and that the first four layer spacings are -41%, +18%, -8%, and +47% of the associated bulk values, respectively. these results agree reasonably well with the predictions of molecular mechanics and spin-density functional theory previously reported in the literature for the Fe-terminated surface. however, we find no evidence for and O-terminated surface predicted to be stable by spin-density functional theory.

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Liquid viscosities of binary mixtures and some hydrocarbons in the high pressure range with applications of the significant structure theory

  • Jun Su Bhang;Sang Joon Hahn;Mu Shik Jhon
    • Journal of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 1970
  • Further validity of the significant structure theory has been tested by calculating the viscosities of binary mixtures-three pairs of $C_6H_6(1)+C_6H_{12}\;(2),\;CCI_4\;(1)+C_6H_6{2}and\l;CCI_4(1)+C_6H_{12}(2)$-and also by calculating the viscosities of n-$C_5H_{12}\;and\;n-C_6H_{14}$ in the pressure range of 1 bar to 4000 bars. The results are quite satisfactory for both cases and provide another evidence for the validity of the significan structure theory.

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The Human Brain and Information Science: Lessons from Popular Neuroscience

  • Sturges, Paul
    • International Journal of Knowledge Content Development & Technology
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2013
  • Insights from the recent wealth of popular books on neuroscience are offered to suggest a strengthening of theory in information science. Information theory has traditionally neglected the human dimension in favour of 'scientific' theory often derived from the Shannon-Weaver model. Neuroscientists argue in excitingly fresh ways from the evidence of case studies, non-intrusive experimentation and the measurements that can be obtained from technologies that include electroencephalography, positron emission tomography (PET), functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and magnetoencephalography (MEG). The way in which the findings of neuroscience intersect with ideas such as those of Kahneman on fast and slow thinking and Csikszentmihalyi on flow, is tentatively explored as lines of connection with information science. It is argued that the beginnings of a theoretical underpinning for current web-based information searching in relation to established information retrieval methods can be drawn from this.

A Novel Unweighted Combination Method for Business Failure Prediction Using Soft Set

  • Xu, Wei;Yang, Daoli
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.1489-1502
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    • 2019
  • This work introduces a novel unweighted combination method (UCSS) for business failure perdition (BFP). With considering features of BFP in the age of big data, UCSS integrates the quantitative and qualitative analysis by utilizing soft set theory (SS). We adopt the conventional expert system (ES) as the basic qualitative classifier, the logistic regression model (LR) and the support vector machine (SVM) as basic quantitative classifiers. Unlike other traditional combination methods, we employ soft set theory to integrate the results of each basic classifier without weighting. In this way, UCSS inherits the advantages of ES, LR, SVM, and SS. To verify the performance of UCSS, it is applied to real datasets. We adopt ES, LR, SVM, combination models utilizing the equal weight approach (CMEW), neural network algorithm (CMNN), rough set and D-S evidence theory (CMRD), and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and SS (CFBSS) as benchmarks. The superior performance of UCSS has been verified by the empirical experiments.

Do Women's Attitudes Matter in Acceptance of Islamic Microfinance? Evidence from Malaysia

  • Md Amirul Islam;Muhammad Salah Uddin;Seethaletchumy Thambiah;Elsadig Musa Ahmed;Md Abdur Rauf
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.61-85
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    • 2023
  • The study aims to investigate the factors pursuing the women entrepreneurs to accept Islamic microfinance (IMF) in urban and rural areas of Malaysia. For this purpose, the study applies the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Innovation and Diffusion Theory to explain Islamic microfinance adoption. Using the structural equation model (SEM) with primary data collected from 384-woman entrepreneurs in Malaysia, the current study uses a 5-point Likert scale. On the basis of theory and collected data, the seven hypotheses are developed. All hypotheses are validated by both directly and indirectly, as well as through a mediating factor. Among the factors, knowledge about IMF and subjective norms significantly influence the acceptance of IMF. On the other hand, the perceived complexity does not show any substantial relationship to the acceptance of IMF. This outcome will be helpful in supporting policymakers, academics, and future studies and must take into account the supported factors. Therefore, the study contributes to develop an innovative framework, to create self-employment for women entrepreneurs.