• Proceedings of the ESK Conference
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• 1996.04a
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• pp.113-127
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• 1996

In Human Reliability Analysis(HRA), the uncertainties involved in many factors that affect human reliability have to be represented as the quantitative forms. Conventional probability- based human reliability theory is used to evaluate the effect of those uncertainties but it is pointed out that the actual human reliability should be different from that of conventional one. Conventional HRA makes use of error rates, however, it is difficult to collect data enough to estimate these error rates, and the estimates of error rates are dependent only on engineering judgement. In this paper, the error possibility that is proposed by Onisawa is used to represent human reliability, and the error possibility is obtained by use of fuzzy reasoning that plays an important role to clarify the relation between human reliability and human error. Also, assuming these factors are connected to the top event through Fault Tree structure, the influence and correlation of these factors are measured by fuzzy operation. When a fuzzy operation is applied to Fault Tree Analysis, it is possible to simplify the operation applying the logic disjuction and logic conjuction to structure function, and the structure of human reliability can be represented as membership function of the top event. Also, on the basis of the the membership function, the characteristics of human reliability can be evaluated by use of the concept of pattern recognition.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.582-584
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• 1998

객체 지향 설계 명세를 대상으로한 시스템의 안전성에 대한 검사를 하여, 표(Table)조작에 기초한 검증법을 제안하였다[4]. 제안한 검증법에서는 전문 분야별로 준비된 안정성 기준(Safety Standard)과 노우하우(Knowhow)를 이용하여, 안전성에 관한 이벤트(Event)와 액션(Action)의 관계표를 작성하였다. 그러나, 많은 실제 개발 현장에서는 실제 존재하는 안전성 기준의 부족 등으로 인하여, 이러한 검증법의 기용이 어렵다는 문제점이 있다. 이에 본 논문에서는 신뢰성 분석의 한 방법인 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis)의 FT(Fault Tree)도를 이용한 안정성 체크리스트(Check list)를 작성하여, 이를 바탕으로 관계표를 작성하는 새로운 방법을 제안하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1996.05b
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• pp.493-498
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• 1996

A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS(CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree(CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the large supporting event tree(LSET) for its detailed quantification. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: computational aspects including systematic uncertainty analysis, importance analysis, and sensitivity analysis, reporting aspects including tabling and graphic, and user-friend interface.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.75-80
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• 2003

This paper presents a set of typical pseudo-accident scenarios related to major equipments in petrochemical plants, which would be useful for performing such quantitative risk analysis techniques as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, etc. These typical scenarios address what the main hazard of each equipment might be and how the accident might develop from an "initiating event". The proposed set of accident scenarios consists of total thirteen (13) scenarios specific for five (5) major equipments like reactor, distillation column, etc., and has been determined and screened out of one hundred and twenty-five (125) potential accident scenarios that were generated by performing semi-quantitative risk analysis practically for twenty-five (25) petrochemical processes, considering advices from the operation experts. It is assumed that with simple consideration or incorporation of plant-specific conditions only, the proposed accident scenarios could be easily reorganized or adapted for the relevant process with less time and labor by the safety engineers concerned in the petrochemical industries.ndustries.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.100-106
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• 2015

A module or independent subtree is a part of a fault tree whose child gates or basic events are not repeated in the remaining part of the fault tree. Modules are necessarily employed in order to reduce the computational costs of fault tree quantification. This quantification generates fault tree solutions such as minimal cut sets, minimal path sets, or binary decision diagrams (BDDs), and then, calculates top event probability and importance measures. This paper presents a new linear time algorithm to detect modules of large fault trees. It is shown through benchmark tests that the new method proposed in this study can very quickly detect the modules of a huge fault tree. It is recommended that this method be implemented into fault tree solvers for efficient probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.41-46
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• 2017

In this paper, from making an electrical fire which is thought to be the most damaging among potential dangers as a top event, minimal cut sets (MCS) about it were analyzed. For this, components of a power substation were classified into 15 items. Failure rates and modes were extracted based on Korea Electrical Safety Corporation, IEEE Gold Book, and RAC. To analyze the top event (an electrical fire), main events were assorted into "safety devices for overcurrent" and "ampere meter of detecter". Failure of components was divided into failure of VCB, COS, and MCCB. A fault tree was composed of 3 AND gate, 5 OR gates and 17 basic events. Overlapped events among the basic events are things which occur from relevant components. They were attached to the tree by distinguishing identifiers. In case of FT, two minimal cut sets of "IO_METER", "MF_METER", "DO_MCCB" and "IO_METER", "MF_METER", "DO_VCB" take 46% of electrical fires. Therefore, about basic events which are included in the top two minimum cut sets, strict control is necessary.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1999.07b
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• pp.838-840
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• 1999

In this paper, modeling and analysis of discrete event systems by temporal logic frame works and petri net is considered. The reachability tree of the petri net can be used to solve the safeness, boundedness, conservation and coverability problems of discrete event systems. But the reachability tree of the petri net do not solve reachability and liveness problems in general. We proposed a method that synthesised the petri net and the temporal logic frameworks. This method slove some problems of petri net by logical representation of temporal logic frameworks.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.37-43
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• 2007

We use influence diagrams to describe event trees used in safety analyses of low-probability high-risk incidents. This paper shows how the branch parameters used in the event tree models can be updated by a bayesian method based on the observed counts of certain well-defined subsets of accident sequences. We focus on the analysis of the shared branch parameters, which may frequently often in the real accident initiation and propagation to more severe accident. We also suggest the way to utilize different levels of accident data to forecast low-probability high-risk accidents.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.27-36
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• 2001

This Paper proposes a new methodology for assessing the reliability of an accident management, which Is based on the reliability physics and the scheme to generate dynamic event tree. The methodology consists of 3 main steps: screening; uncertainty propagation; and probability estimation. Sensitivity analysis is used for screening the variables of significance. Latin Hypercube sampling technique and MAAP code are used for uncertainty propagation, and the dynamic event tree generation method is used for the estimation of non-success probability of implementing an accident management strategy. This approach is applied in assessing the non-success probability of implementing a cavity flooding strategy, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems during the sequence of station blackout at the reference plant.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 1997

In conventional probability-based human reliability analysis, the basic human error rates are modified by experts to consider the influences of many factors that affect human reliability. However, these influences are not easily represented quantitatively, because the relation between human reliability and each of these factors in not clear. In this paper, the relation is expressed quantitatively. Furthermore, human reliability is represented by error possibilities proposed by Onisawa, which is a fuzzy set on the interval [0,1]. Fuzzy reasoning is used in this method in order to obtain error possibilities. And, it is supposed that many basic events affected by the above factors are connected to the top event through Fault Tree structure, and an estimate of the top event expressed by a member- ship function is obtained by using the fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral. Finally, a numerical example of human reliability analysis obtained by this method is given.