• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evaluation scenarios

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Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.305-305
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    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

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Development of Rainfed-adapted, Fertilizer-efficient Temperate Rice Varieties by Pup1 Introgression

  • Ian Paul Navea;Jae-Hyuk Han;Na-Hyun Shin;Yeong-Ju Lee;Joong Hyoun Chin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.272-272
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    • 2022
  • Water and phosphorus (P) fertilizer are two of the most critical inputs in rice cultivation. Under climate change scenarios and urbanization, irrigation and fertilizer are becoming limiting factors often leading to significant decrease in yield whenever supplied scarcely. It has been shown that the Pup1 QTL confers tolerance to P starvation and improved early-stage root vigor in indica rice grown in the tropics. However, whether the QTL works in japonica rice genetic background grown in temperate regions remains to be elucidated. Here, we have introgressed the Pup1 QTL into three temperate rice varieties MS11, TR22183, and Dasan using marker-assisted backcrossing and next generation sequencing. The selected lines all harbored the full Pup1 QTL with recurrent parent genome recovery rates ranging from 66.5% to 99.8%. Evaluation of the introgression rice lines grown in South Korea under low inputs of P and water revealed early vegetative growth advantage relative to that of the recurrent parents. Under rainfed condition, Pup1 introgression lines had yield advantage ranging from 7.2 to 19.9% and 24 to 26% in P non-supplied soil and P-supplied soil, respectively compared to that of the recurrent parents suggesting that Pup1 confers enhanced yield under low P and water inputs in temperate rice genetic background grown in temperate climate. In terms of early vegetative growth, temperate Pup1 introgression lines showed a similar trend on the extent to which Pup1 promotes yield advantage in temperate rice in comparison with indica control Pup1 introgression line IR64-Pup1.

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Evaluation of at-home bleaching protocol with application on different surfaces: bleaching efficacy and hydrogen peroxide permeability

  • Heloisa Forville;Michael Willian Favoreto;Michel Wendlinger;Roberta Micheten Dias;Christiane Philippini Ferreira Borges;Alessandra Reis;Alessandro D. Loguercio
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.33.1-33.12
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the bleaching efficacy and hydrogen peroxide permeability in the pulp chamber by the at-home bleaching gel in protocols applied on different dental surfaces. Materials and Methods: Forty premolars were randomly into 4 groups: control group no bleaching, only application on the buccal surface (OB), only application on the lingual surface (OL) and application in buccal and lingual surfaces, simultaneously (BL). At-home bleaching gel (White Class 7.5%) was used for the procedure. The bleaching efficacy was evaluated with a digital spectrophotometer (color change in CIELAB [ΔEab] and CIEDE 2000 [ΔE00] systems and Whitening Index for Dentistry [ΔWID]). The hydrogen peroxide permeability in the pulp chamber (㎍/mL) was assessed using UV-Vis spectrophotometry and data were analyzed for a 1-way analysis of variance and Tukey's test (α = 0.05). Results: All groups submitted to bleaching procedure showed bleaching efficacy when measured with ΔEab and ΔE00 (p > 0.05). Therefore, when analyzed by ΔWID, a higher bleaching efficacy were observed for the application on the groups OB and BL (p = 0.00003). Similar hydrogen peroxide permeability was found in the pulp chambers of the teeth undergoing different protocols (p > 0.05). Conclusions: The application of bleaching gel exclusively on the OB is sufficient to achieve bleaching efficacy, when compared to BL. Although the OL protocol demonstrated lower bleaching efficacy based on the ΔWID values, it may still be of interest and relevant in certain clinical scenarios based on individual needs, requiring clinical trials to better understand its specificities.

An In-depth Analysis of Head-on Collision Accidents for Frontal Crash Tests of Automated Driving Vehicles (자율주행자동차 정면충돌평가방안 마련을 위한 국내 정면충돌사고 심층분석 연구)

  • Yohan Park;Wonpil Park;Seungki Kim
    • Journal of Auto-vehicle Safety Association
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.88-94
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    • 2023
  • The seating postures of passengers in the automated driving vehicle are possible in atypical forms such as rear-facing and lying down. It is necessary to improve devices such as airbags and seat belts to protect occupants from injury in accidents of the automated driving vehicle, and collision safety evaluation tests must be newly developed. The purpose of this study is to define representative types of head-on collision accidents to develop collision standards for autonomous vehicles that take into account changes in driving behavior and occupants' postures. 150 frontal collision cases remained by filtering (accident videos, images, AIS 2+, passenger car, etc…) and random sampling from approximately 320,000 accidents claimed by a major insurance company over the past 5 years. The most frequent accident type is a head-on collision between a vehicle going straight and a vehicle turning left from the opposite side, accounting for 54.7% of all accidents, and most of these accidents occur in permissive left turns. The next most common frontal collision is the center-lane violation by drowsy driving and careless driving, accounting for 21.3% of the total. For the two types above, data such as vehicle speed, contact point/area, and PDOF at the moment of impact are obtained through accident reconstruction using PC-Crash. As a result, two types of autonomous vehicle crash safety test scenarios are proposed: (1) a frontal oblique collision test based on the accident types between a straight vehicle and a left-turning vehicle, and (2) a small overlap collision test based on the head-on accidents of center-lane violation.

Analysis of fluctuations in ex-core neutron detector signal in Krško NPP during an earthquake

  • Tanja Goricanec;Andrej Kavcic;Marjan Kromar;Luka Snoj
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.575-600
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    • 2024
  • During an earthquake on December 29th 2020, the Krško NPP automatically shutdown due to the trigger of the negative neutron flux rate signal on the power range nuclear instrumentation. From the time course of the detector signal, it can be concluded that the fluctuation in the detector signal may have been caused by the mechanical movement of the ex-core neutron detectors or the pressure vessel components rather than the actual change in reactor power. The objective of the analysis was to evaluate the sensitivity of the neutron flux at the ex-core detector position, if the detector is moved in the radial or axial direction. In addition, the effect of the core barrel movement and core inside the baffle movement in the radial direction were analysed. The analysis is complemented by the calculation of the thermal and total neutron flux gradient in radial, axial and azimuthal directions. The Monte Carlo particle transport code MCNP was used to study the changes in the response of the ex-core detector for the above-mentioned scenarios. Power and intermediate-range detectors were analysed separately, because they are designed differently, positioned at different locations, and have different response characteristics. It was found that the movement of the power range ex-core detector has a negligible effect on the value of the thermal neutron flux in the active part of the detector. However, the radial movement of the intermediate-range detector by 5 cm results in 7%-8% change in the thermal neutron flux in the active part of the intermediate-range detector. The analysis continued with an evaluation of the effects of moving the entire core barrel on the ex-core detector response. It was estimated that the 2 mm core barrel radial oscillation results in ~4% deviation in the power and intermediate-range detector signal. The movement of the reactor core inside baffle can contribute ~6% deviation in the ex-core neutron detector signal. The analysis showed that the mechanical movement of ex-core neutron detectors cannot explain the fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal. However, combined core barrel and reactor core inside baffle oscillations could be a probable reason for the observed fluctuations in the ex-core detector signal during an earthquake.

Pathophysiology and Treatment of Gout Arthritis; including Gout Arthritis of Hip Joint: A Literature Review

  • Yonghan Cha;Jongwon Lee;Wonsik Choy;Jae Sun Lee;Hyun Hee Lee;Dong-Sik Chae
    • Hip & pelvis
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2024
  • Gout is triggered by the accumulation of uric acid in the body, leading to hyperuricemia. Genetic, metabolic, and environmental factors can influence this condition. Excessive uric acid buildup results in the formation of monosodium urate (MSU) crystals, which precipitate in specific areas of the body, including the joints, where they can cause symptoms of gout. While the acute and chronic symptoms of gout have been well-documented, diagnosis of gout affecting the hip joint poses significant challenges. The global incidence of gout, the most prevalent form of inflammatory arthritis, is on the rise. Evaluation of the clinical signs, laboratory results, and imaging results is generally required for diagnosis of gout in cases where MSU crystals have not been detected. Hyperuricemia is considered a primary cause of arthritis symptoms, and comprehensive guidelines for treatment are available. Therefore, the choice of medication is straightforward, and moderate effectiveness of treatment has been demonstrated. Gout is a chronic disease, requiring lifelong uric acid-lowering medications, thus application of a treatment strategy based on the target blood uric acid concentration is necessary. Consequently, cases of gout will likely be observed more frequently by hip surgeons in clinical scenarios in the future. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the pathophysiology of gout and subsequently examine recent advances in diagnostic methods and therapeutic agents based on an understanding of its underlying mechanisms. In addition, literature on gout-related issues affecting the hip joint, providing a useful reference for hip surgeons is examined.

Real-time measurements and modeling of sodium combustion aerosol dynamics in test chamber to improve the evaluation of SFR containment aerosol behaviour

  • Usha Pujala;Amit Kumar;Subramanian Venkatesan;Sujatha Pavan Narayanam;Venkatraman Balasubramanian
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.9
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    • pp.3483-3490
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    • 2024
  • The initial size distribution and morphological parameters of sodium aerosols are critical in evaluating the accidental suspended aerosol behaviour in Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) containment. Mass-based measurements were more familiar in characterizing the sodium aerosols. Real-time number size distribution measurements are carried out in this study. The sensitivity analysis of sodium aerosol effective density (ρe) in deriving the actual number size distributions from the measured Aerodynamic Particle Size Distributions (APSD) and predicting suspended aerosol dynamics is presented. Tests are conducted in a 1 m3 chamber at 47 ± 3% RH for different initial mass concentrations (M0) of 0.1, 1, and 2.9 g/m3. The initial APSDs measured just after the generation completions are observed to be polydisperse with the count median aerodynamic diameter (CMAD) < 1 ㎛. The literature reported ρe values of sodium aerosols, 2.27, 1.362, and 0.61 g/cm3 are used to derive mobility equivalent PSDs from APSD in each test. The real-time number concentration decay and size growth for four different PSDs are measured and compared with the estimate using nodal method-based code to ascertain the actual parameters. The validated parameters CMD = 0.66 ㎛, σg = 1.96, ρe = 1 g/cm3 and χ = 1 are used for improved estimation of sodium aerosol dynamics in Indian SFR containment with M0 = 4 g/m3 for severe accident scenarios.

Evaluation of Countermeasures Effectiveness in a Radioactively Contaminated Urban Area Using METRO-K : The Implementation of Scenarios Designed by the EMRAS II Urban Areas Working Group (METRO-K를 사용한 방사능으로 오염된 도시지역에서 대응행위효과 평가 : EMRAS II 도시오염평가분과 시나리오의 이행)

  • Hwang, Won-Tae;Jeong, Hae-Sun;Jeong, Hyo-Joon;Kim, Eun-Han;Han, Moon-Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.108-115
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    • 2012
  • The Urban Areas Working Group within the EMRAS-2 ($\underline{E}$nvironmental $\underline{M}$odelling for $\underline{RA}$diation $\underline{S}$afety, Phase 2), which has been supported by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), has designed some types of accidental scenarios to test and improve the capabilities of models used for evaluation of radioactive contamination in urban areas. For the comparison of the results predicted from the different models, the absorbed doses in air were analyzed as a function of time following the accident with consideration of countermeasures to be taken. Two kinds of considerations were performed to find the dependency of the predicted results. One is the 'accidental season', i.e. summer and winter, in which an event of radioactive contamination takes place in a specified urban area. Likewise, the 'rainfall intensity' on the day of an event was also considered with the option of 1) no rain, 2) light rain, and 3) heavy rain. The results predicted using a domestic model of METRO-K have been submitted to the Urban Areas Working Group for the intercomparison with those of other models. In this study, as a part of these results using METRO-K, the countermeasures effectiveness in terms of dose reduction was analyzed and presented for the ground floor of a 24-story business building in a specified urban area. As a result, it was found that the countermeasures effectiveness is distinctly dependent on the rainfall intensity on the day of an event, and season when an event takes place. It is related to the different deposition amount of the radionuclides to the surfaces and different behavior on the surfaces following a deposition, and different effectiveness from countermeasures. In conclusion, a selection of appropriate countermeasures with consideration of various environmental conditions may be important to minimize and optimize the socio-economic costs as well as radiation-induced health detriments.

Evaluation of stream flow and water quality behavior by weir operation in Nakdong river basin using SWAT (SWAT을 이용한 낙동강유역의 보 개방에 따른 하천유량 및 수질 거동 분석)

  • Lee, Ji Wan;Jung, Chung Gil;Woo, So Young;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.349-360
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the stream flow and water quality (SS, T-N, and T-P) behavior of Nakdong river basin ($23,609.3km^2$) by simulating the dam and weir operation scenarios using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The operation senarios are the simultaneous release for all dam and weirs (scenario 1), simultaneous release for all weirs (scenario 2), and sequential release for the weirs with one month interval from upstream weirs (scenario 3). Before evaluation, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using 11 years (2005-2015) daily multi-purpose dam inflow at 5 locations (ADD, IHD, HCD, MKD, and MYD), multi-function weir inflow at 7 locations (SHW, GMW, CGW, GJW, DSW, HCW, and HAW), and monthly water quality monitoring data at 6 locations (AD-4, SJ-2, EG, HC, MK-4, and MG). For the two dam inflow and dam storage, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was 0.56~0.79, and the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) was 0.68~0.90. For water quality, the $R^2$ of SS, T-N, and T-P was 0.64~0.79, 0.51~0.74, and 0.53~0.72 respectively. For the three scenarios of dam and weir release combination suggested by the ministry of environment, the scenario 1 and 3 operations were improved the stream water quality (for T-N and T-P) within the 3 months since the time of release, but it showed the negative effect for 3 months after compared to scenario 2.

Development of Evaluation Model for ITS Project using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (확률적 위험도분석을 이용한 ITS사업의 경제성평가모형)

  • Lee, Yong-Taeck;Nam, Doo-Hee;Lim, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the ITS evaluation model using the Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) methodology and to demonstrate the goodness-of-fit of the large ITS projects through the comparative analysis between DEA and PRA model. The results of this study are summarized below. First, the evaluation mode] using PRA with Monte-Carlo Simulation(MCS) and Latin-Hypercube Sampling(LHS) is developed and applied to one of ITS projects initiated by local government. The risk factors are categorized with cost, benefit and social-economic factors. Then, PDF(Probability Density Function) parameters of these factors are estimated. The log-normal distribution, beta distribution and triangular distribution are well fitted with the market and delivered price. The triangular and uniform distributions are valid in benefit data from the simulation analysis based on the several deployment scenarios. Second, the decision making rules for the risk analysis of projects for cost and economic feasibility study are suggested. The developed PRA model is applied for the Daejeon metropolitan ITS model deployment project to validate the model. The results of cost analysis shows that Deterministic Project Cost(DPC), Deterministic Total Project Cost(DTPC) is the biased percentile values of CDF produced by PRA model and this project need Contingency Budget(CB) because these values are turned out to be less than Target Value(TV;85% value), Also, this project has high risk of DTPC and DPC because the coefficient of variation(C.V) of DTPC and DPC are 4 and 15 which are less than that of DTPC(19-28) and DPC(22-107) in construction and transportation projects. The results of economic analysis shows that total system and subsystem of this project is in type II, which means the project is economically feasible with high risk. Third, the goodness-of-fit of PRA model is verified by comparing the differences of the results between PRA and DEA model. The difference of evaluation indices is up to 68% in maximum. Because of this, the deployment priority of ITS subsystems are changed in each mode1. In results. ITS evaluation model using PRA considering the project risk with the probability distribution is superior to DEA. It makes proper decision making and the risk factors estimated by PRA model can be controlled by risk management program suggested in this paper. Further research not only to build the database of deployment data but also to develop the methodologies estimating the ITS effects with PRA model is needed to broaden the usage of PRA model for the evaluation of ITS projects.