• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.96-108
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• 2017

The current collision warning and avoidance system(CWAS) is one of the representative Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) that significantly contributes to improve the safety performance of a vehicle and mitigate the severity of an accident. However, current CWAS mainly have focused on preventing a forward collision in an uninterrupted flow, and the prevention performance near intersections and other various types of accident scenarios are not extensively studied. In this paper, the safety performance of Vision-Sensor (VS) and Radar-Sensor(RS) - based collision warning systems are evaluated near an intersection area with the data from Naturalistic Driving Study(NDS) of Second Strategic Highway Research Program(SHRP2). Based on the VS and RS data, we newly derived sixteen vehicle-to-vehicle accident scenarios near an intersection. Then, we evaluated the detection performance of VS and RS within the derived scenarios. The results showed that VS and RS can prevent an accident in limited situations due to their restrained field-of-view. With an accident prevention rate of 0.7, VS and RS can prevent an accident in five and four scenarios, respectively. For an efficient accident prevention, a different system that can detect vehicles'movement with longer range than VS and RS is required as well as an algorithm that can predict the future movement of other vehicles. In order to further improve the safety performance of CWAS near intersection areas, a communication-based collision warning system such as integration algorithm of data from infrastructure and in-vehicle sensor shall be developed.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.173-188
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• 2024

With the advancement of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, autonomous driving on real roads has become feasible. However, there are challenges in achieving complete autonomy due to perceptual blind areas, which occur when the AV's sensory range or capabilities are limited or impaired by surrounding objects or environmental factors. This study aims to analyze AV accident patterns and safety issues of perceptual blind area that may occur in urban areas, with the goal of developing test scenarios for Level 4+ autonomous driving. It utilized AV accident data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to compare accident patterns and characteristics between AVs and conventional vehicles based on activation status of autonomous mode. It also categorized AV disengagement data to identify types and real-world cases of disengagements caused by perceptual blind areas. The analysis revealed that AVs exhibit different accident types due to their safe driving maneuvers, and three types of perceptual blind area scenarios were identified. The findings of this study serve as crucial foundational data for developing Level 4+ autonomous driving test scenarios, enabling the design of efficient strategies to mitigate perceptual blind areas in various scenarios. This, in turn, is expected to contribute to the effective evaluation and enhancement of AV driving safety on real roads.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.225-236
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• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.95-101
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• 2016

This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.19-30
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• 2016

The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.3
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• pp.41-50
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• 2017

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the effect of best management practices (BMPs) of Haean highland agricultural catchment ($62.8km^2$) under future climate change using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was setup using 3 years (2009~2011) of observed daily streamflow, suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) data at three locations of the catchment. The SWAT was calibrated with average 0.74 Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency for streamflow, and 0.78, 0.63, and 0.79 determination coefficient ($R^2$) for SS, T-N, and T-P respectively. Under the HadGEM-RA RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the future precipitation and maximum temperature showed maximum increases of 8.3 % and $4.2^{\circ}C$ respectively based on the baseline (1981~2005). The future 2040s and 2080s hydrological components of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow showed changes of +3.2~+17.2 %, -0.1~-0.7 %, and -9.1~+8.1 % respectively. The future stream water quality of suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) showed changes of -5.8~+29.0 %, -4.5~+2.3 %, and +3.7~+17.4 % respectively. The future SS showed wide range according to streamflow from minus to plus range. We can infer that this was from the increase of long-term rainfall variability in 2040s less rainfalls and 2080s much rainfalls. However, the results showed that the T-P was the future target to manage stream water quality even in 2040s period.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.321-327
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• 2020

Recently The amount of wastewater and linked wastewater is being increased every year due to industrial development, population growth, and improvement in living standards. Linked wastewater shows the feature-low flow rate and high concentration. Therefore, it has been shown that it has a great impact on the operation of the sewage treatment plant and costs a lot for treating linked wastewater. In this study, a scenario with low increase of water quality when the total amount of the inflow of linked wastewater was entered into individual reactors is obtained. According to the result of modeling, The effluent water quality get the least increment once the water was introduced into the influent and anoxic tank. We generated the various scenarios Based on these results. scenarios are varying according to inflow from linked waste water's distribution ration. As a result of modeling through various scenarios, it was found that the increment of TN and TP were at the least when the inflow of linked water was distributed with ratio between sewage (80%) and oxygen-free tank (20%).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.518-518
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• 2016

Agriculture is the lifeblood of the economy in Ghana, employs about 42% of the population work force and accounts for 30% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Corn (maize) is the major cereal crop grown as staple food under rain fed conditions, covers over 92% of the total agricultural area, and contributes 54% of the caloric intake. Issues of hunger and food insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. The climate changes are expected to affect corn production in Ghana. This study evaluated variations of corn yields based on different climate conditions of rain-fed area in the Dangbe East District of Ghana. AquaCrop model has been used to simulate corn growing cycles in study area for this purpose. The main goal for this study was to predict yield of corn using selected climatic parameters from 1992 to 2013 using different climate scenarios. The Model was calibrated and validated using observed field data, and the simulated grain yields matched well with observed values for the season under production giving an R squared (R2)of 0.93 and Nash-Sutcliff Error(NSE) of 0.21. Study results showed that rainfall reduction in the range of -5% to -20% would reduce the yield from 1.315ton/ha to 0.421ton/ha (-21. 3%) whereas increasing temperature from 1% to 7% would result in the maximum yield reduction of -20.6% (1.315 to 1.09 ton/ha.). On the other hand, increasing rainfall from 5-20% resulted in yield increment of 68% (1.315-2.209 ton/ha) and decreasing temperature produce 7% increase in yield ( 1.315 to 1.401ton/ha). These results provide useful information to adopt strategies by the Government of Ghana and farmers for improving national food security under climate change.

• Quality Improvement in Health Care
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.34-44
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• 2022

Purpose:We investigated physicians' responses to a series of clinical vignettes consisting of patient safety incidents, with and without disclosure of patient safety incidents (DPSI). Methods: An anonymous survey was conducted to investigate physicians' responses to the DPSI via online communities of physicians, and additional participants were recruited using a snowballing sampling method. We evaluated physicians' responses to the DPSI using eight hypothetical scenarios (HS) from the following perspectives: thoughts regarding medical errors, revisiting the physician, recommendation, lawsuit, criminal prosecution, trust score, and compensation amounts. We used the chi-square test to evaluate the overall differences in response rates among the scenarios. Statistical analyses were performed using the Student's t-test to compare the trust scores and compensation amounts. Results: A total of 910 physicians participated in this survey. An overall comparison of trust scores among HS showed that HS 1 (unclear medical errors, minor harm, and DPSI) had the highest trust score. In contrast, in the opposite scenario, HS 8 (clear medical errors, major harm, and DPSI not conducted) received the lowest scores. Cases with minor harm to patients (HS 1, 2, 5, and 6) showed lower compensation amounts than the others (HS 3, 4, 7, and 8). Physicians were more likely to think of situations with DPSI as not having medical errors (53.1% vs. 55.2%). In addition, the scenarios with DPSI were evaluated favorably in terms of intention to revisit, recommend, suit, and engage in criminal proceedings. Physicians showed higher trust scores (6.2 vs 5.4) and gave lower compensation amounts ($27.7 million vs $28.1 million), although there was no significant difference in terms of compensation amounts to the physician conducting DPSI. Conclusion: Our study showed overall positive perceptions regarding DPSI among Korean physicians.