• 제목/요약/키워드: Evaluation of Value at Risk

검색결과 125건 처리시간 0.033초

초고층 건축물 매트 기초용 고성능 콘크리트 내구성 평가 (Durability Evaluation of High-Performance, Low-Heat Self-Compacting Concrete for Foundation of Tall Buildings)

  • 김영봉;박동천
    • 한국건축시공학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.425-430
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    • 2022
  • 초고층 건축물용 매트기초에 사용되는 콘크리트는 시공성 및 품질확보를 위하여 일체타설로 진행되는 경우가 많다. 하지만 일체타설의 경우 수화반응 과정에서 온도균열이 발행할 우려가 높으며 혼화재 치환을 통해 고성능 고내구성 콘크리트 최적배합을 도출할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 저자의 기존연구에서 도출한 최적 고성능 저발열 콘크리트 배합으로 제작된 시험체를 대상으로 염해 및 탄산화, 내황산염에 대한 실험을 실시하고 염소이온 확산계수와 탄산화계수, 황산염에 대한 시멘트 매트릭스의 저항을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 혼화재의 혼입에 의한 잠재수경성 및 포졸란 반응에 의한 높은 저항성을 확인할 수 있었다.

Evaluation on Four Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) Contents in the Groundwater and Their Human Risk Level

  • Song, Dahee;Park, Sunhwa;Jeon, Sang-Ho;Hwang, Jong Yeon;Kim, Moonsu;Jo, Hun-Je;Kim, Deok-Hyun;Lee, Gyeong-Mi;Kim, Ki-In;Kim, Hye-Jin;Kim, Tae-Seung;Chung, Hyen Mi;Kim, Hyun-Koo
    • 한국토양비료학회지
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.235-250
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    • 2017
  • In this study, we monitored 4 volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane in groundwater samples to determine the detection frequency and their concentrations and evaluated the health risk level considering ingestion, inhalation, and skin contact. 75 groundwater wells were selected. 24 wells were from monitoring background groundwater quality level and 51 wells were from monitoring groundwater quality level in industrial or contamination source area. In the results, the detection frequency for chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane was 42.3%, 8.1%, 6.0%, and 3.4%, respectively. The average concentrations of VOCs were high in the order of chloroform ($1.7{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), dichloromethane ($0.08{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), tetrachloromethane ($0.05{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$), and 1,2-dichloroethane ($0.05{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$). Chloroform had the highest detection frequency and average detection concentration. In the contaminated groundwater, the detection frequency of VOCs was high in the order of chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dchloroethane, and tetrachloromethane. The average concentrations for chloroform, dichloromethane, 1,2-dichloroethane, and tetrachloromethane were $2.23{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.08{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.07{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, and $0.06{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, respectively. All the 4 compounds were detected at industrial complex and storage tank area. The maximum concentration of chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dichloroethane was detected at industrial complex area. Especially, the maximum concentration of chloroform and dichloromethane was detected at a chemical factory area. In the uncontaminated groundwater, the detection frequency of VOCs was high in the order of chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dchloroethane and tetrachloromethane was not detected. The average concentrations for chloroform, dichloromethane, and 1,2-dichloroethane were $0.57{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, $0.07{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, and $0.03{\mu}g\;L^{-1}$, respectively. Although chloroform in the uncontaminated groundwater was detected the most, the concentration of chloroform was not exceeding water quality standards. By land use, the maximum detection frequency of 1,2-dichloroethane was found near a traffic area. For human risk assessment, the cancer risk for the 4 VOCs was $10^{-6}{\sim}10^{-9}$, while the non-cancer risk (HQ value) for the 4 VOCs is $10^{-2}{\sim}10^{-3}$.

레일응력을 고려한 레일패드강성 결정 (Evaluation of Rail pad Stiffness Considering Stress of Rail)

  • 박대근;김재학;손기준;김한종
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.419-431
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    • 2007
  • The track and rail surface geometry is of prime importance on the requirement for track dynamic stiffness, particularly for the speed of 350 km/h, for which both the requirement for fatigue and tensile strength limits require a lower stiffness than 100 kN/mm, which is near the value for ballasted track. However, the track quality has been considered as being the same for 350 km/h as that for 300 km/h, and based on ballasted track, and the track geometry may be kept in better condition with a slab track(probably more similar to the medium quality track geometry of ballasted track). In conclusion, under the condition that the track geometry quality provided by the concrete slab system is fairly good, and that the required maintenance is applied to the rail surface, there would be no safety risk if the fastening system point stiffness reaches 160 kN/mm for 300 km/h operation, and 110 N/mm at 350 km/h.

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Retrospective Evaluation of Risk Factors and Immunohistochemical Findings for Pre-Neoplastic and Neoplastic lesions of Upper Urinary Tract in Patients with Chronic Nephrolithiasis

  • Desai, Fanny Sharadkumar;Nongthombam, Jitendra;Singh, Lisam Shanjukumar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권18호
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    • pp.8293-8298
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    • 2016
  • Background: Urinary stones are known predisposing factors for upper urinary tract carcinoma (UUTC) which are commonly detected at advanced stage with poor outcome because of rarity and lack of specific criteria for early detection. Aims and objectives: The main aim was to evaluate the impact of age, gender andstone characteristics on risk of developing UUTC in patients with chronic nephrolithiasis. We also discuss the role of aberrant angiogenesis (AA) and immunohistochemical expression of p53, p16INK4a, CK20 and Ki-67 in diagnosis of pelvicalyceal neoplastic (NL) and pre-neoplastic lesions (PNL) in these patients. Materials and Methods: Retrospective analysis of pelvicalyceal urothelial lesions from 88 nephrectomy specimens were carried out in a tertiary care centre from June 2012 to December 2014. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed on 37 selected cases. Computed image analysis was performed to analyse aberrant angiogenesis. Results: All UUTC (5.7%) and metaplastic lesions were found to be associated with stones. Some 60% were pure squamous cell carcinoma and 40% were transitional cell carcinoma. Odd ratios for developing NL and PNL lesions in presence of renal stone, impacted stones, multiple and large stag horn stones were 9.39 (95% CI 1.15-76.39, p value 0.05), 6.28 (95% CI 1.59-24.85, p value 0.000) and 7.4 (95% CI, 2.29-23.94, p value 0.001) respectively. When patient age was ${\geq}55$, the odds ratio for developing NL was 3.43 (95% CI 1.19-9.88, p value 0.019). IHC analysis showed that mean Ki-67 indices were $3.15{\pm}3.63%$ for non-neoplastic lesions, $10.0{\pm}9.45%$ for PNL and $28.0{\pm}18.4%$ for NL. Sensitivity and specificity of CK20, p53, p16INK4a, AA were 76% and 95.9%; 100% and 27.5%; 100% and 26.5%; 92.3 % and 78.8% respectively. Conclusions: Age ${\geq}55years$, large stag horn stones, multiple stones and impacted stones are found to be associated with increased risk of NL and PNL in UUT. For flat lesions, a panel of markers, Ki 67 index >10 and presence of aberrant angiogenesis were more useful than individual markers.

Stock Price Prediction and Portfolio Selection Using Artificial Intelligence

  • Sandeep Patalay;Madhusudhan Rao Bandlamudi
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.31-52
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    • 2020
  • Stock markets are popular investment avenues to people who plan to receive premium returns compared to other financial instruments, but they are highly volatile and risky due to the complex financial dynamics and poor understanding of the market forces involved in the price determination. A system that can forecast, predict the stock prices and automatically create a portfolio of top performing stocks is of great value to individual investors who do not have sufficient knowledge to understand the complex dynamics involved in evaluating and predicting stock prices. In this paper the authors propose a Stock prediction, Portfolio Generation and Selection model based on Machine learning algorithms, Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used for stock price prediction, Mathematical and Statistical techniques are used for Portfolio generation and Un-Supervised Machine learning based on K-Means Clustering algorithms are used for Portfolio Evaluation and Selection which take in to account the Portfolio Return and Risk in to consideration. The model presented here is limited to predicting stock prices on a long term basis as the inputs to the model are based on fundamental attributes and intrinsic value of the stock. The results of this study are quite encouraging as the stock prediction models are able predict stock prices at least a financial quarter in advance with an accuracy of around 90 percent and the portfolio selection classifiers are giving returns in excess of average market returns.

水利構造物의 破壞危險度와 設計洪水量에 관한 水文學的 硏究(Ⅰ) -年最高値 系列을 中心으로- (Hydrological Studies on the flood and Risk of failure of the Hydraulic Structures(Ⅰ) -On the annual maximum series-)

  • 이순혁;박명근
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제27권2호
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    • pp.23-37
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    • 1985
  • This studies were carried out to get characteristics of frequency distribution, probable flood flows according to the return periods, and the correlation between return periods and those length of records affect the Risk of failure in the annual maximum series of the main river systems in Korea. Especially, Risk analysis according to the levels were emphasized in relation to the design frequency factors for the different watersheds. Twelve watersheds along Han, Geum, Nak Dong, Yeong San and Seom Jin river basin were selected as studying basins. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Type 1 extremal distribution was newly confirmed as a good fitted distribution at selected watersheds along Geum and Yeong San river basin. Three parameter lognormal Seom Jin river basin. Consequently, characteristics of frequency distribution for the extreme value series could be changed in connection with the watershed location even the same river system judging from the results so far obtained by author. 2. Evaluation of parameters for Type 1 extremal and three parameter lognormal distribution based on the method of moment by using an electronic computer. 3. Formulas for the probable flood flows were derived for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 4. Equations for the risk to failure could be simplified as $\frac{n}{N+n}$ and $\frac{n}{T}$ under the condition of non-parametric method and the longer return period than the life of project, respectively. 5. Formulas for the return periods in relation to frequency factors were derived by the least square method for the three parameter lognormal and Type 1 extremal distribution. 6. The more the length of records, the lesser the risk of failure, and it was appeared that the risk of failure was increasing in propotion to the length of return periods even same length of records. 7. Empirical formulas for design frequency factors were derived from under the condition of the return periods identify with the life of Hydraulic structure in relation to the risk level. 8. Design frequency factor was appeared to be increased in propotion to the return periods while it is in inverse proportion to the levels of the risk of failure. 9. Derivation of design flood including the risk of failure could be accomplished by using of emprical formulas for the design frequency factor for each watershed.

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PEI를 활용한 건설시설물의 친환경 설계평가모델 (Eco-Friendly Design Evaluation Model Using PEI for Construction Facilities)

  • 김준수;김병수
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제37권4호
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    • pp.729-738
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    • 2017
  • 2015년 말 신기후변화협약인 파리협정(Paris Agreement)이 체결됨에 따라 우리나라의 환경정책에도 많은 영향을 미칠 것으로 보인다. 우리나라의 전체 이산화탄소 배출량의 42%를 차지하고 있는 건설업은 그동안 환경문제를 개선하기 위하여 다양한 정책을 펼쳐 왔지만, 친환경건축물 인증에 해당하는 프로젝트 외에는 소극적 적용에 그치고 있다. 이는 대부분의 친환경 관련제도가 건축시설물을 위주로 하기 때문인 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 건축 뿐 아니라 토목시설물에도 광범위하게 적용될 수 있는 새로운 친환경 설계평가모델이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 VE모델을 기반으로 시설물의 친환경성, 잠재적인 환경오염 개념과 환경위험성을 평가 할 수 있는 새로운 요소를 추가하여 의사결정자가 설계단계에서 친환경에 효과적인 대안을 선정할 수 있도록 친환경 설계평가 모델을 제시 하였다. 원안인 블록식 옹벽과 대안인 현장타설 옹벽을 대상으로 사례분석을 실시한 결과 대안의 친환경가치값이 원안보다 1.026배 높게 산출되었다. 본 모델이 설계단계에서 활용된다면 환경친화적인 시설물의 건설뿐 아니라 탄소배출량의 감축에도 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

농업용 트랙터의 승차 진동 수준 평가 (Evaluation of Ride Vibrations of Agricultural Tractors)

  • 김호중;김경욱
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.151-156
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to evaluate ride vibrations experienced by tractor operators during plowing, rotovating, and transporting operations in Korea. Field data of ride vibrations were taken at the operator-seat interface from 49 tractors and analyzed on the basis of ISO 2631-1 and EU Directive 2002/44. Of the measured ride vibrations 15.4% in the plowing and 12.5% in farm road transport exceeded the 8-hour fatigue decreased proficiency boundary in the fore and aft directions at frequencies from 1 to 5 Hz. 93.9% exceeded the 8-hour potential health risk of ISO 2631-1. The ride vibrations exceeding the 8-hour exposure limit were 38.5% in plowing, 31.6% in rotovating, 100% in farm road transport and 88.9% in concrete road transport. Although most tractor operators were not exposed to ride vibrations greater than the 8-hour exposure limit value (ELV) of EU Directive 2002/44, 7.7% of the operators in the plowing experienced greater vibrations than the ELV in the fore-aft direction. Farm road transport produced greater vibrations than any other operations. Concrete road transport, plowing and rotovating operations followed next. Limit criteria for ride vibration exposure differ depending upon the guidelines. Exposure limit of the health guidance caution zone of ISO 2631-1 is lowest among its kinds.

중년 여성의 식생활 중심 건강상태 판정 도구의 현장 적용 및 평가 (Field Application and Evaluation of Health Status Assessment Tool based on Dietary Patterns for Middle-Aged Women)

  • 이혜진;이경혜
    • 대한지역사회영양학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: This study was performed to verify the validity and judgment criteria setting of a health status assessment tool based on dietary patterns for middle-aged women. Methods: A total of 474 middle-aged women who visited the Comprehensive Medical Examination Center at Hanmaeum Hospital in Changwon were enrolled (IRB 2013-0005). The validity was verified using clinical indicators for the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome (MS), and it was used to set the criteria for the tool. A logistic regression analysis was performed for validation. The area under-receiver operation (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and Youden Index were calculated through ROC curve analysis. Statistical analysis was performed by SPSS 21, and p value <0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. Results: The mean score of the group with no MS (73.3 points) was significantly higher compared to the group with MS (65.7 points) (p<0.001). An analysis of the association between the tool scores and risk of MS showed a 0.15-fold reduction in the risk of MS every time the tool's score increased by one point. As the result of the ROC curve analysis, the assessment reference point was set to 71 points, indicating 77.0% sensitivity and 61.0% specificity. Risk of MS was significantly higher in the group with a score of less than 71.0 than a group with more than 71 points (OR=5.28, p<0.001). Conclusions: This study was the first attempt to develop a health status assessment tool based on the dietary patterns for middle-aged women, and this tool has proven its usefulness as an MS assessment tool through the application of middle-aged women in the field of health screening.

산업곤충 위해성 평가를 위한 국외사례 분석 및 시사점 (Foreign Case Analysis and Implications for Risk Assessment of Industrial Insects)

  • 유미나;장기정;황정훈;박용하;노태호
    • 환경정책연구
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.135-159
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    • 2014
  • 산업곤충은 부가가치를 창출하는 산업에 이용되는 곤충으로 정의된다. 일반적으로 국내 통용되고 있는 산업곤충의 대부분이 외래종이며, 인위적 유입으로 기인한 것이다. 산업곤충 시장의 급속한 확장에도 불구하고 산업곤충의 위해성평가를 위한 시스템은 적절하게 수행되지 않는다. 국내 수입곤충의 경우 농림축산검역본부에서 금지병해충으로 지정한 종에 대한 위험평가를 실시하여 외래종을 유입하고 있지만, 그 관리체계가"식물방역법" 체계에서 다루어지기 때문에 생태계 전반의 고려가 이루어지지 않는 한계가 있다. 이 문제를 해결하기 위해 국내 제도의 현황과 외국 평가체계를 살펴보았다. 분석결과, 우리나라 산업곤충 분야의 성공적인 제도적 관리를 위해서는 기본적 방향설정에 대한 합의가 필요한 것으로 분석되었고 이를 제안하였다. 또한, 위해성평가는 분류학 및 생태학적 정보의 통합 시스템이 준비되지 않는 한, 생태계를 보호하고 사전예방원칙을 따르도록 해야 하며 각 부처 간의 협력이 중요한 것으로 나타났다. 이와 함께 산업용 곤충의 위해성 평가와 위해성 심사체계의 구분이 시급한 개선사항으로 분석되었다. 위해성 평가와 위해성 심사목적, 대상, 신청기관, 위해성 평가기준의 마련을 제안하였다. 국외에서 시행되는 위해성평가체계 중에서 아일랜드의 평가체계는 경제성, 생태적 안전성, 관리적 측면 등 다양한 요소를 균형적으로 고려한 평가체계이며 사전예방주의에 입각한 것으로 분석되었다. 이는 우리나라 곤충산업의 특수성을 고려하여 산업곤충으로 인한 피해를 사전적으로 예방할 수 있는 국내 시스템으로 응용할 수 있을 것이라 사료된다.

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