• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation system

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Feasibility of Tax Increase in Korean Welfare State via Estimation of Optimal Tax burden Ratio (적정조세부담률 추정을 통한 한국 복지국가 증세가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, SeongWook
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.77-115
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study is to present empirical evidence for discussion of financing social welfare via estimating optimal tax burden in the main member countries of the OECD by using Hausman-Taylor method considering endogeneity of explanatory variables. Also, the author produced an international tax comparison index reflecting theoretical hypotheses on revenue-expenditure nexus within a model to compare real tax burden by countries and to examine feasibility of tax increase in Korea. As a result of the analysis, the higher the level of tax burden was, the higher the level of welfare expenditure was, indicating the connection between high burden and high welfare from the aspect of scale. The results also indicated that the subject countries recently entered into the state of low tax burden. Meanwhile, Korea had maintained low burden until the late 1990s but the tax burden soared up since the financial crisis related to the IMF. However, due to the impact of foreign economy and the tax reduction policy, it reentered into the low-burden state after 2009. On the other hand, the degree of social welfare expenditure's reducing tax burden has been gradually enhanced since the crisis. In this context, the current optimal tax burden ratio of Korea as of 2010 may be 25.8%~26.5% of GDP based on input of welfare expenditure variables, a percent that Korea was investigated to be a 'high tax burden-low ITC' country whose tax increase of 0.7~1.4%p may be feasible and that the success of tax system reform for tax increase might be higher probability when compare to others. However, measures of increasing social security contributions and consumption tax were analyzed to be improper from the aspect of managing finance when compared to increase in other tax items, considering the relatively higher ITC. Tax increase is not necessarily required though there may be room for tax increase; the optimal tax burden ratio can be understood as the level that may be achieved on average when compared to other nations, not as the "proper" level. Thus, discussion of tax increase should be accompanied with comprehensive understanding of models of economic developmental difference from nations and institutional & historical attributes included in specific tax mix.

Data-driven Analysis for Developing the Effective Groundwater Management System in Daejeong-Hangyeong Watershed in Jeju Island (제주도 대정-한경 유역 효율적 지하수자원 관리를 위한 자료기반 연구)

  • Lee, Soyeon;Jeong, Jiho;Kim, Minchul;Park, Wonbae;Kim, Yuhan;Park, Jaesung;Park, Heejeong;Park, Gyeongtae;Jeong, Jina
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.373-387
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the impact of clustered groundwater usage facilities and the proper amount of groundwater usage in the Daejeong-Hangyeong watershed of Jeju island were evaluated based on the data-driven analysis methods. As the applied data, groundwater level data; the corresponding precipitation data; the groundwater usage amount data (Jeoji, Geumak, Seogwang, and English-education city facilities) were used. The results show that the Geumak usage facility has a large influence centering on the corresponding location; the Seogwang usage facility affects on the downstream area; the English-education usage facility has a great impact around the upstream of the location; the Jeoji usage facility shows an influence around the up- and down-streams of the location. Overall, the influence of operating the clustered groundwater usage facilities in the watershed is prolonged to approximately 5km. Additionally, the appropriate groundwater usage amount to maintain the groundwater base-level was analyzed corresponding to the precipitation. Considering the recent precipitation pattern, there is a need to limit the current amount of groundwater usage to 80%. With increasing the precipitation by 100mm, additional groundwater development of approximately 1,500m3-1,900m3 would be reasonable. All the results of the developed data-driven estimation model can be used as useful information for sustainable groundwater development in the Daejeong-Hangyeong watershed of Jeju island.

Estimation of irrigation return flow from paddy fields on agricultural watersheds (농업유역의 논 관개 회귀수량 추정)

  • Kim, Ha-Young;Nam, Won-Ho;Mun, Young-Sik;An, Hyun-Uk;Kim, Jonggun;Shin, Yongchul;Do, Jong-Won;Lee, Kwang-Ya
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • Irrigation water supplied to the paddy field is consumed in the amount of evapotranspiration, underground infiltration, and natural and artificial drainage from the paddy field. Irrigation return flow is defined as the excess of irrigation water that is not consumed by evapotranspiration and crop, and which returns to an aquifer by infiltration or drainage. The research on estimating the return flow play an important part in water circulation management of agricultural watershed. However, the return flow rate calculations are needs because the result of calculating return flow is different depending on irrigation channel water loss, analysis methods, and local characteristics. In this study, the irrigation return flow rate of agricultural watershed was estimated using the monitoring and SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) modeling from 2017 to 2020 for the Heungeop reservoir located in Wonju, Gangwon-do. SWMM modeling was performed by weather data and observation data, water of supply and drainage were estimated as the result of SWMM model analysis. The applicability of the SWMM model was verified using RMSE and R-square values. The result of analysis from 2017 to 2020, the average annual quick return flow rate was 53.1%. Based on these results, the analysis of water circulation characteristics can perform, it can be provided as basic data for integrated water management.

Analysis of the Effect of Objective Functions on Hydrologic Model Calibration and Simulation (목적함수에 따른 매개변수 추정 및 수문모형 정확도 비교·분석)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Yeon, Min Ho;Kim, Young Hun;Jung, Sung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2022
  • An automatic optimization technique is used to estimate the optimal parameters of the hydrologic model, and different hydrologic response results can be provided depending on objective functions. In this study, the parameters of the event-based rainfall-runoff model were estimated using various objective functions, the reproducibility of the hydrograph according to the objective functions was evaluated, and appropriate objective functions were proposed. As the rainfall-runoff model, the storage function model(SFM), which is a lumped hydrologic model used for runoff simulation in the current Korean flood forecasting system, was selected. In order to evaluate the reproducibility of the hydrograph for each objective function, 9 rainfall events were selected for the Cheoncheon basin, which is the upstream basin of Yongdam Dam, and widely-used 7 objective functions were selected for parameter estimation of the SFM for each rainfall event. Then, the reproducibility of the simulated hydrograph using the optimal parameter sets based on the different objective functions was analyzed. As a result, RMSE, NSE, and RSR, which include the error square term in the objective function, showed the highest accuracy for all rainfall events except for Event 7. In addition, in the case of PBIAS and VE, which include an error term compared to the observed flow, it also showed relatively stable reproducibility of the hydrograph. However, in the case of MIA, which adjusts parameters sensitive to high flow and low flow simultaneously, the hydrograph reproducibility performance was found to be very low.

Effects of Feeding Systems on Feed Intake, Weight Gain and Fawn Performance in Elk Doe(Cervus canadensis) (사양 방식이 엘크 암사슴의 건물섭취량, 증체량 및 자록의 번식성적에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jinwook;Lee, Sung-Soo;Lee, Sang-Hoon;Choi, Bong-Hwan;Jeon, Dayeon;Kim, Chan-Lan;Kim, Dong-Kyo;Lee, Eun-Do;Kim, Kwan-Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.250-258
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    • 2021
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effect of feeding systems on feed intake, weight gain, and fawn performance (Cervus canadensis) and estimation of grazing intensity in Elk doe at pasture. A sixteen Elk doe about 236.2 kg were randomly assigned to two feeding treatments. The treatment consisted of a barn feeding system (BF) and grazing at pasture (GR), and pasture was mainly composed of tall fescue, orchard grass, and Kentucky bluegrass. The moisture content of pasture was 19.51~22.61%, which was similar during experimental periods. The crude protein content was significantly higher from June to July (p<0.05). The contents of neutral detergent fiber and acid detergent fiber ranged 53.65~60.18%, and 26.08~29.10%, respectively. There were no significant differences between feeding systems on supplementary feed intake, but the roughage and total dry matter intake showed significant differences between treatment groups (p<0.05), except for May. In August, roughage intake was dramatically decreased in the GR group due to summer environmental changes. On the other hand, the higher intake of roughage in September might be related to nutrient intake for mammals. There was no difference in body weight between treatment groups, but the fawn performance was significantly higher in the GR group (p<0.05). These results might be suggested that grazing elk doe might positively affect fawn growth. However, it is considered that BF might increase the deer weaning rate during the parturition period, since the lower weaning rate in the GR group compared to the BF group. The grazing intensity of Elk doe was increased from May to July and decreased in August, which was influenced by pasture productivity. The average grazing intensity of Elk doe was found to be 15 heads/ha, which might be controlled by supplementary feeding. Further studies needed that mixed sowing methods and fertilization management in old grazing pastures for improved pasture productivity.

Assessment of Region Specific Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients on Uncertainties of Crop Yield Estimates using CERES-Rice Model (작물모형 입력자료용 일사량 추정을 위한 지역 특이적 AP 계수 평가)

  • Young Sang, Joh;Jaemin, Jung;Shinwoo, Hyun;Kwang Soo, Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.256-266
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    • 2022
  • Empirical models including the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model have been used to estimate solar radiation at sites, which would support a wide use of crop models. The objective of this study was to estimate two sets of solar radiation estimates using the AP coefficients derived for climate zone (APFrere) and specific site (APChoi), respectively. The daily solar radiation was estimated at 18 sites in Korea where long-term measurements of solar radiation were available. In the present study, daily solar radiation and sunshine duration were collected for the period from 2012 to 2021. Daily weather data including maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were also obtained to prepare input data to a process-based crop model, CERES-Rice model included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). It was found that the daily estimates of solar radiation using the climate zone specific coefficient, SFrere, had significantly less error than those using site-specific coefficients SChoi (p<0.05). The cumulative values of SFrere for the period from march to September also had less error at 55% of study sites than those of SChoi. Still, the use of SFrere and SChoi as inputs to the CERES-Rice model resulted in slight differences between the outcomes of crop growth simulations, which had no significant difference between these outputs. These results suggested that the AP coefficients for the temperate climate zone would be preferable for the estimation of solar radiation. This merits further evaluation studies to compare the AP model with other sophisticated approaches such as models based on satellite data.

Estimation of ecological flow and fish habitats for Andong Dam downstream reach using 1-D and 2-D physical habitat models (1차원 및 2차원 물리서식처 모형을 활용한 안동댐 하류 하천의 환경생태유량 및 어류서식처 추정)

  • Kim, Yongwon;Lee, Jiwan;Woo, Soyoung;Kim, Soohong;Lee, Jongjin;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1041-1052
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    • 2022
  • This study is to estimate the optimal ecological flow and analysis the spatial distribution of fish habitat for Andong dam downstream reach (4,565.7 km2) using PHABSIM (Physical Habiat Simulation System) and River2D. To establish habitat models, the cross-section informations and hydraulic input data were collected uisng the Nakdong river basic plan report. The establishment range of PHABSIM was set up about 410.0 m from Gudam streamflow gauging station (GD) and about 6.0 km including GD for River2D. To select representative fish species and construct HSI (Habitat Suitability Index), the fish survey was performed at Pungji bridge where showed well the physical characteristics of target stream located downstream of GD. As a result of the fish survey, Zacco platypus was showed highly relative abundance resulting in selecting as the representative fish species, and HSI was constructed using physical habitat characteristics of the Zacco platypus. The optimal range of HSI was 0.3~0.5 m/s at the velocity suitability index, 0.4~0.6 m at the depth suitability index, and the substrate was sand to fine gravel. As a result of estimating the optimal ecological flow by applying HSI to PHABSIM, the optimal ecological flow for target stream was 20.0 m3/sec. As a result of analysis two-dimensional spatial analysis of fish habitat using River2D, WUA (Weighted Usable Area) was estimated 107,392.0 m2/1000 m under the ecological flow condition and it showed the fish habitat was secured throughout the target stream compared with Q355 condition.

A Study on Improvement Methods of Cost Estimation in Order for the Proper Management of Street Trees (도시 가로수 관리 품셈 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Do, Yoon-Taek;Han, Bong-Ho;Park, Seok-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.20-36
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to provide basic data for high-quality street tree management by setting reasonable management items and appropriate unit prices by reviewing the adequacy of current street tree management. Currently, street tree management items, except for street tree pruning, use general landscape tree quantity per unit for the street tree management quantity per unit. KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation) applied pruning items from standard electric production infrastructure and carried out the activities at an average unit price of 51% lower for heavy pruning and 39% lower for light pruning than the standard estimate. This was judged to be a level that could not maintain or increase the quality of street tree management. It was determined that an appropriate standard unit price for street tree management was necessary. To improve the quantity per unit for the proper management of street trees, it was necessary to review costs in the field. However, due to the absence of data on actual construction costs in the domestic landscape field, detailed items of the US RSMeans Building Construction Cost Data (RSMeans) were reviewed, and the actual construction costs were calculated by applying personal domestic expenses. As a result, the standard of the estimated unit showed a good ratio of 107% for heavy pruning of street tree pruning compared to the actual construction cost, but light pruning was underestimated with a 59% ratio. Shrub pruning was 82%, weeding was 92%, tree fertilization was 87%, and windbreak wall installation was 91% under-engineered. In addition, it was also confirmed that the watering by sprinkler trucks and chemical spraying were over-designed compared to the actual construction cost at the rates of 118% and 124%, respectively. Due to the specificity of the street trees, the increase in personal expenses and the input cost of equipment, such as road safety controls, were judged to be the main cause of the underestimation of items. Therefore, it is necessary to add items related to street trees and general landscape trees to the landscape maintenance items of the standard of the estimated unit.

A Proposal for Simplified Velocity Estimation for Practical Applicability (실무 적용성이 용이한 간편 유속 산정식 제안)

  • Tai-Ho Choo;Jong-Cheol Seo; Hyeon-Gu Choi;Kun-Hak Chun
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2023
  • Data for measuring the flow rate of streams are used as important basic data for the development and maintenance of water resources, and many experts are conducting research to make more accurate measurements. Especially, in Korea, monsoon rains and heavy rains are concentrated in summer due to the nature of the climate, so floods occur frequently. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the flow rate most accurately during a flood to predict and prevent flooding. Thus, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) introduces 1, 2, 3 point method using a flow meter as one way to measure the average flow rate. However, it is difficult to calculate the average flow rate with the existing 1, 2, 3 point method alone.This paper proposes a new 1, 2, 3 point method formula, which is more accurate, utilizing one probabilistic entropy concept. This is considered to be a highly empirical study that can supplement the limitations of existing measurement methods. Data and Flume data were used in the number of holesman to demonstrate the utility of the proposed formula. As a result of the analysis, in the case of Flume Data, the existing USGS 1 point method compared to the measured value was 7.6% on average, 8.6% on the 2 point method, and 8.1% on the 3 point method. In the case of Coleman Data, the 1 point method showed an average error rate of 5%, the 2 point method 5.6% and the 3 point method 5.3%. On the other hand, the proposed formula using the concept of entropy reduced the error rate by about 60% compared to the existing method, with the Flume Data averaging 4.7% for the 1 point method, 5.7% for the 2 point method, and 5.2% for the 3 point method. In addition, Coleman Data showed an average error of 2.5% in the 1 point method, 3.1% in the 2 point method, and 2.8% in the 3 point method, reducing the error rate by about 50% compared to the existing method.This study can calculate the average flow rate more accurately than the existing 1, 2, 3 point method, which can be useful in many ways, including future river disaster management, design and administration.

Verification of International Trends and Applicability in the Republic of Korea for a Greenhouse Gas Inventory in the Grassland Biomass Sector (초지 바이오매스 부문 온실가스 인벤토리 구축을 위한 국제 동향과 국내 적용 가능성 평가)

  • Sle-gee Lee;Jeong-Gwan Lee;Hyun-Jun Kim
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2023
  • The grassland section of the greenhouse gas inventory has limitations due to a lack of review and verification of biomass compared to organic carbon in soil while grassland is considered one of the carbon storages in terrestrial ecosystems. Considering the situation at internal and external where the calculation of greenhouse gas inventory is being upgraded to a method with higher scientific accuracy, research on standards and methods for calculating carbon accumulation of grassland biomass is required. The purpose of this study was to identify international trends in the calculation method of the grassland biomass sector that meets the Tier 2 method and to conduct a review of variables applicable to the Republic of Korea. Identify the estimation methods and access levels for grassland biomass through the National Inventory Report in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and type the main implications derived from overseas cases. And, a field survey was conducted on 28 grasslands in the Republic of Korea to analyse the applicability of major issues. Four major international issues regarding grassland biomass were identified. 1) country-specific coefficients by land use; 2) calculations on woody plants; 3) loss and recovery due to wildfire; 4) amount of change by human activities. As a result of field surveys and analysis of activity data available domestically, it was found that there was a significant difference in the amount of carbon in biomass according to use type classification and climate zone-soil type classification. Therefore, in order to create an inventory of grassland biomass at the Tier 2 level, a policy and institutional system for making activity data should develop country-specific coefficients for climate zones and soil types.