• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation of wind speed

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Estimation of weibull parameters for wind energy application in Iran's cities

  • Sedghi, Majid;Hannani, Siamak K.;Boroushaki, Mehrdad
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.203-221
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    • 2015
  • Wind speed is the most important parameter in the design and study of wind energy conversion systems. The weibull distribution is commonly used for wind energy analysis as it can represent the wind variations with an acceptable level of accuracy. In this study, the wind data for 11 cities in Iran have been analysed over a period of one year. The Goodness of fit test is used for testing data fit to weibull distribution. The results show that this data fit to weibull function very well. The scale and shape factors are two parameters of the weibull distribution that depend on the area under study. The kinds of numerical methods commonly used for estimating weibull parameters are reviewed. Their performance for the cities under study was compared according to root mean square and wind energy errors. The result of the study reveals the empirical, modified maximum likelihood estimate of wind speed with minimum error. Also, that the moment and modified maximum likelihood are the best methods for estimating the energy production of wind turbines.

Analysis of the Dynamic Characteristics on Aerodynamic Loads of Wind Turbine Blade with New Airfoil KA2 (신규 익형 KA2가 적용된 풍력 블레이드의 공력 하중에 대한 동특성 해석)

  • Kang, Sang-Kyun;Lee, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Jang-Ho
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a novel airfoil named "KA2" for the blade of the wind turbine systems. Dynamic loads characteristics are analyzed and compared using aerodynamic data of ten airfoils including the proposed airfoil. The blade is divided into the sixteen elements in the longitudinal direction of the blade for applying the Blade Element Method Theory (BEMT) method, and in each element, torque, thrust, and pitching moment are calculated using turbulent time varying wind speed and aerodynamic data of each wing. Additionally, each force and torque is accumulated in the whole region of the blade for the estimation of representative values. The magnitude of such forces is comparatively analyzed for different airfoils. The angle of attack is constant below the rated wind speed due to the fact that the tip speed ratio is kept at the constant value, and it increases in the region of over rated wind speed as the tip speed ratio decreasing with constant rated rpm and increasing wind speed. Such increase in the angle of attack causes the changes of the force acting on the airfoil with different characteristics of lift and drag in the stall region of each different airfoil. Even though the mean wind speed is in the rated speed in a given time, because of the turbulence, it has either the over rated or under rated speed most of the time. Furthermore, the dynamic properties of each force are analyzed in this rated wind speed in order to objectively understand the dynamic properties of the blades which are designed based on the different airfoils. These dynamic properties are also compared by the standard deviation of time varying characteristics. Moreover, the output characteristics of the wind turbine are investigated with different airfoils and wind speeds. Based on these investigations, it was revealed that the proposed airfoil (KA2) is well applicable to the blade with passive pitch control system.

Studies on the Structural Design of Biological Production Facility I. Frequency Analysis of Weather Data for Design Load Estimation (생물생산시설의 구조설계에 관한 연구 I. 설계하중 산정을 위한 기상자료 빈도분석)

  • 김문기;손정익;남상운;이동근;이석재
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 1992
  • This study was attemped to provide some fundamental data for the safety structural design of biological production facility. Wind speed and snow depth according to recurrence intervals for design load estimation were calculated by frequency analysis using the weather data of 60 stations in Korea. The following results were obtained : 1. Type-I extremal distribution was selected for the probability density function of yearly maximum wind speed and snow depth and result of Chi-square goodness of fit showed highly significance at most regions. 2. Design frequency factors for given number of samples and recurrence intervals were calculated, and also design wind speed and snow depth as shown in Table 5-Table 6 and Fig.3-Fig.4 were derived. 3. About 46.4% of the winds having maximum wind speed at every station was analyzed to be same direction, and the consideration of this fact may improve the structural safety. 4. Considering wind speed and snow depth, protected cultivation is very difficult in Ullungdo and the Youngdong districts, and strong structural design is needed in the Chungnam and Junbuk west seaside against snow depth and the west-south seaside against wind speed in Korea.

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Estimation of Polarization Ratio for Sea Surface Wind Retrieval from SIR-C SAR Data

  • Kim, Tae-Sung;Park, Kyung-Ae
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.729-741
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    • 2011
  • Wind speeds have long been estimated from C-band VV-polarized SAR data by using the CMOD algorithms such as CMOD4, CMOD5, and CMOD_IFR2. Some SAR data with HH-polarization without any observations in VV-polarization mode should be converted to VV-polarized value in order to use the previous algorithms based on VV-polarized observation. To satisfy the necessity of polarization ratio (PR) for the conversion, we retrieved the conversion parameter from full-polarized SIR-C SAR image off the east coast of Korea. The polarization ratio for SIR-C SAR data was estimated to 0.47. To assess the accuracy of the polarization ratio coefficient, pseudo VV-polarized normalized radar cross section (NRCS) values were calculated and compared with the original VV-polarized ones. As a result, the estimated psudo values showed a good agreement with the original VV-polarized data with an root mean square error by 0.99 dB. We applied the psudo NRCS to the estimation of wind speeds based on the CMOD wind models. Comparison of the retrieved wind field with the ECMWF and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis wind data showed relatively small rms errors of 1.88 and 1.91 m/s, respectively. SIR-C HH-polarized SAR wind retrievals met the requirement of the scatterometer winds in overall. However, the polarization ratio coefficient revealed dependence on NRCS value, wind speed, and incident angle.

HAZARD ANALYSIS OF TYPHOON-RELATED EXTERNAL EVENTS USING EXTREME VALUE THEORY

  • KIM, YOCHAN;JANG, SEUNG-CHEOL;LIM, TAE-JIN
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.59-65
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    • 2015
  • Background: After the Fukushima accident, the importance of hazard analysis for extreme external events was raised. Methods: To analyze typhoon-induced hazards, which are one of the significant disasters of East Asian countries, a statistical analysis using the extreme value theory, which is a method for estimating the annual exceedance frequency of a rare event, was conducted for an estimation of the occurrence intervals or hazard levels. For the four meteorological variables, maximum wind speed, instantaneous wind speed, hourly precipitation, and daily precipitation, the parameters of the predictive extreme value theory models were estimated. Results: The 100-year return levels for each variable were predicted using the developed models and compared with previously reported values. It was also found that there exist significant long-term climate changes of wind speed and precipitation. Conclusion: A fragility analysis should be conducted to ensure the safety levels of a nuclear power plant for high levels of wind speed and precipitation, which exceed the results of a previous analysis.

A Study on the Estimation of Wind Forces Influence upon the Turning Ability of a Car Carrier Ship (자동차운반선의 선회성능에 미치는 풍하중의 영향에 관한 연구)

  • 최명식;이경우;오양국
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.397-403
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    • 2000
  • Since very large and high-speed ships have been appeared in marine transportation from 1970s, these ships with poor maneuverability have made large-scale accidents frequently all over the world. The IMO(International Maritime Organization) recommended that ship designers should evaluate various maneuvering performance at initial stage and serve them to ship operators when they deliver a new ship. Meantime, it is expected that ships with large and wide superstructure would have poor maneuverability when they are affected by strong wind. Therefore, car carrier ship with large superstructure was selected to confirm how the ship responds to the external wind forces in this paper. The lateral and transverse projected areas above the water level were considered and ship behaviors were checked by change of rudder angles under severe wind conditions of different directions. In addition, hydrodynamic derivatives and coefficients were predicted from ship particulars and numerical calculations were carried out with the mathematical model of low speed maneuvering motions.

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The Time Variant Power Signal Processing of Wind Generator using Buneman Frequency Estimator Algorithm (부너맨 주파수 추정 알고리듬을 이용한 풍력발전기 가변 전력신호 처리에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Sang-Yule;Lee, Jong-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.24 no.12
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    • pp.138-146
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    • 2010
  • On wind turbine generators, the speed and volume of the wind affect the turbine angle speed which finally determines the output level of the electric power. However it is very difficult to forecast correctly the future power output and quality based on previous fixed sampling methods. This paper proposes a variable sampling method based on Buneman frequency estimation algorithm to reflect the variations of the frequency and amplitude on wind power outputs. The proposed method is also verified through the performance test by comparing with the results from previous fixed sampling methods and the real measurement data.

Assessment of Domestic Wind Potential by Analyzing Wind Data (풍속자료(風速資料) 분석(分析)에 의한 국내(國內) 풍력가용양(風力可用量) 산정(算定))

  • Lee, Chul-Hyung;Shin, Dong-Ryul;Cho, Myong-Jae
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.3-10
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    • 1985
  • This paper is concerned with the characterized method of wind speed distribution for calculation of wind power density of regional group and wind potential in Korea. It is shown that the Rayleigh distribution, K = 2, is not suitable for analyzing wind data in Korea. Simple relationship, K = 0.21 V + 0.84, is derived from Weibull wind distribution by analyzing wind data obtained from 24 meteorological station and is a suitable tool for estimation of wind power density. Application of this result, the domestic ideal and actual wind potential are estimated as $3.16{\times}10^9$ KWH/year and $7.14{\times}$10^8 KWH/year respectively for the case of 10 meter height, $1m^2$ swept area and $0.1{\times}0.1Km^2$ land area. And for the case of 50 meter height, ideal and actual wind potential are increased as $7.56{\times}10^9$ KWH/year and $2.37{\times}10^9$ KWH/year respectively.

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Probability-Based Estimates of Basic Design wind Speeds in Korea (확률에 기초한 한국의 기본 설계풍속 추정)

  • 조효남;차철준;백현식
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.62-72
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    • 1989
  • This study presents rational methods for probability-based estimates of basic design wind speeds in Korea and proposes a risk-based nation-wide map of design wind speeds. The paper examines the fittings of the extreme Type I mode to largest yearly non-typhoon wind data from long-term records, and to largest monthly non-typhoon wind data from short-term records. For the estimation of the extreme typhoon wins speed distribution, an indirect analytical method based on a Monte-Carlo simulation is applied to typhoon-prone regions. The basic desig wind speeds for typhoon and non-typhoon winds at the sites of concern are made to be obtained from the mixed model given as a product of the two distributions. The results of this study show that the proposed models and methods provide a practicable tool for the development of the risk-based basic design wind speed and the design wind map from short-term station records currently available in Korea.

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Extreme Offshore Wind Estimation using Typhoon Simulation (태풍 모의를 통한 해상 설계풍속 추정)

  • Ko, Dong Hui;Jeong, Shin Taek;Cho, Hongyeon;Kang, Keum Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2014
  • Long-term measured wind data are absolutely necessary to estimate extreme offshore wind speed. However, it is almost impossible to collect offshore wind measured data. Therefore, typhoon simulation is widely used to analyze offshore wind conditions. In this paper, 74 typhoons which affected the western sea of Korea during 1978-2012(35 years) were simulated using Holland(1980) model. The results showed that 49.02 m/s maximum wind speed affected by BOLAVEN(1215) at 100 m heights of HeMOSU-1 (Herald of Meteorological and Oceanographic Special Unit - 1) was the biggest wind speed for 35 years. Meanwhile, estimated wind speeds were compared with observed data for MUIFA, BOLAVEN, SANBA at HeMOSU-1. And to estimate extreme wind speed having return periods, extreme analysis was conducted by assuming 35 annual maximum wind speed at four site(HeMOSU-1, Gunsan, Mokpo and Jeju) in western sea of the Korean Peninsular to be Gumbel distribution. As a results, extreme wind speed having 50-year return period was 50 m/s, that of 100-year was 54.92 m/s at 100 m heights, respectively. The maximum wind speed by BOLAVEN could be considered as a extreme winds having 50-year return period.