• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation errors

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A Generalized Model on the Estimation of the Long - term Run - off Volume - with Special Reference to small and Medium Sized Catchment Areas- (장기만연속수수량추정모형의 실용화 연구 -우리나라 중소유역을 대상으로-)

  • 임병현
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 1990
  • This study aimed at developing a generalized model on the estimation of the long - term run - off volume for practical purpose. During the research period of last 3 years( 1986-1988), 3 types of estimation model on the long - term run - off volume(Effective rainfall model, unit hydrograph model and barne's model for dry season) had been developed by the author. In this study, through regressional analysis between determinant factors (bi of effective rainfall model, ai of unit hydrograph model and Wi of barne's model) and catchment characteris- tics(catchment area, distance round the catchment area, massing degree coefficient, river - exte- nsion, river - slope, river - density, infiltration of Watershed) of 11 test case areas by multiple regressional method, a new methodology on the derivation of determinant factors from catchment characteristics in the watershed areas having no hydrological station was developed. Therefore, in the resulting step, estimation equations on run - off volume for practical purpose of which input facor is only rainfall were developed. In the next stage, the derived equations were applied on the Kang - and Namgye - river catchment areas for checking of their goodness. The test results were as follows ; 1. In Kang - river area, average relative estimation errors of 72 hydrographs and of continuous daily run - off volume for 245 days( 1/5/1982 - 31/12) were calculated as 6.09%, 9.58% respectively. 2. In Namgye - river area, average relative estimation errors of 65 hydrographs and of conti- nuous daily run - off volume for 2fl days(5/4/1980-31/12) were 5.68%, 10.5% respectively. In both cases, relative estimation error was averaged as 7.96%, and so, the methodology in this study might be hetter organized than Kaziyama's formula when comparing with the relative error of the latter, 24~54%. However, two case studies cannot be the base materials enough for the full generalization of the model. So, in the future studies, many test case studies of this model should he carries out in the various catchment areas for making its generalization.

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Small Area Estimation to Unemployment Statistics in Korea (시군 실업통계 작성을 위한 소지역 추정모형)

  • Kim, Jin;Kim, Jae-Kwang
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2010
  • Most sample surveys are designed to estimate reliable statistics for the whole population and for some large subpopulations. However, the research for small area estimation have been increasing in recent years because users demand to reliable estimates for smaller subpopulations like small areas or specific domains. In Korea, the Economically Active Population Survey(EAPS) is the main household survey that produces monthly unemployment rates for nationwide and 16 large areas (7 metropolitans and 9 provinces) in Korea. For county level estimation, direct estimators are not reliable because of the small sample sizes. We consider small area estimation of the county level unemployment ratesfrom the sample observations in EAPS. To do this, we use an area level model to "borrow strength" from the auxiliary information, such as administrative data and census data. The proposed method is based on the assumption of normality of the model errors in the area level model. The proposed method is compared with the other alternatives in terms of the estimated mean squared errors.

Estimation Method of Strain Distribution for Safety Monitoring of Multi-span Steel Beam Using FBG Sensor (FBG센서를 이용한 다경간 강재 보 구조물의 안전성 모니터링을 위한 변형률 분포 추정 기법)

  • Oh, Byung-Kwan;Lee, Ji-Hoon;Choi, Se-Woon;Park, Hyo-Seon;Kim, You-Sok
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.138-149
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    • 2014
  • This study proposes an estimation method of strain distribution for multi-span steel beam structure under unspecific loading conditions. The estimation method in this paper employs the curve fitting using the least square method from measured strain data, not analytical method. To verify the proposed estimation method, a static loading test for multi-span steel beam on which distributed and concentrated loads act was conducted. The strain data for verification was measured by FBG sensors that have multiplexing technology. The analysis of the accuracy of strain estimation for distributed and concentrated loads and the errors by considering the number of measured points used in the estimation were conducted. In the maximum strain points, the strains could be estimated with the errors of 5.89% (loading step 1) and 6.26% (loading step 2). In case of decreasing the number of sensors, it was also confirmed that the errors increased (0.26~0.37%). Through the curve fitting method, it is possible to estimate the strain distribution (maximum strains and their locations) of multi-span beam for unspecific loads and go over the limit of the analytical estimation method which is suitable for specific distributed loads.

Nonlinear Filtering Approaches to In-flight Alignment of SDINS with Large Initial Attitude Error (큰 초기 자세 오차를 가진 관성항법장치의 운항중 정렬을 위한 비선형 필터 연구)

  • Yu, Haesung;Choi, Sang Wook;Lee, Sang Jeong
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.468-473
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    • 2014
  • This paper describes the in-flight alignment of SDINS (Strapdown Inertial Navigation Systems) using an EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) and a UKF (Unscented Kalam Filter), which allow large initial attitude error uncertainty. Regardless of the inertial sensors, there are nonlinear error dynamics of SDINS in cases of large initial attitude errors. A UKF that is one of the nonlinear filtering approaches for IFA (In-Flight Alignment) are used to estimate the attitude errors. Even though the EKF linearized model makes velocity errors when predicting incorrectly in case of large attitude errors, a UKF can represent correctly the velocity errors variations of attitude errors with nonlinear attitude error components. Simulation results and analyses show that a UKF works well to handle large initial attitude errors of SDINS and the alignment error attitude estimation performance are quite improved.

ML-Based Angle-of-arrival Estimation of a Parametric Source

  • Lee, Yong-Up;Kim, Jong-Dae;Park, Joong-Hoo
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3E
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2001
  • In angle of arrival estimation, the direction of a signal is usually assumed to be a point. If the direction of a signal is distributed due to some reasons in real surroundings, however, angle of arrival estimation techniques based on the point source assumption may result in poor performance. In this paper, we consider angle of arrival estimation when the signal sources are distributed. A parametric source model is proposed, and the estimation techniques based on the well-known maximum likelihood technique is considered under the model. In addition, Various statistical properties of the estimation errors were obtained.

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An Adaptive Estimation Model for Propagation Errors Incurred by CD in FD-CD Transcoding (FD-CD 트랜스코딩기법에서 CD에 의한 전파 왜곡의 적응적 예측 모델)

  • Kim Jin-soo;Kim Jae-Gon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.1571-1579
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    • 2004
  • Recently, FD(Frame Dropping)-CD(Coefficient Dropping) transcoding is considered mainly due to the low computational complexity and simple implementation. But, CD errors in the FD-CD transtoding scheme tend to be propagated and they have a significant effect on the qualities of decoded images. In this paper, we derive the error characteristics incurred by the CD operations and propose an effective estimation model that adaptively describes well the characteristics of propagation/accumulation errors in compressed domain. Furthermore, we apply the proposed model to distortion control achieving nearly constant distortion allocation among frames. Simulation results show that the proposed model is quite accurate in estimating the overall distortions and is effectively applied to distortion control over a range of sequences with varying scene types.

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A Study on Observability of Model Parameters for Robot Calibration (로봇 캘리브레이션을 위한 모델 파라미터의 관측성 연구)

  • 범진환;양수상;임생기
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 1997
  • Objective of calibration is to find out the accurate kinematic relationships between robot joint angles and the position of the end-effector by estimating accurate model parameters defining the kinematic function. Estimating the model parameters requires measurement of the end-effector position at a number of different robot configurations. This paper studies the implication of measurement configurations in robot calibration. For selecting appropriate measurement configurations in robot calibration, an index is defined to measure the observability of the model parameters with respect to a set of robot configurations. It is found that, as the observability index of the selected measurement configurations increase the attribution of the position errors to the parameter errors becomes dominant while the effects of the measurement and unmodeled errors are less significant; consequently better estimation of parameter errors is expected. To demonstrate the implication of the observability measure in robot calibration, computer simulations are performed and their results are discussed.

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Improvement of Accuracy for Determination of Hydrogen Storage of Sieverts Apparatus (부피법을 이용한 수소 저장 성능 평가 장치의 수소 저장량 측정법 개선)

  • Cho, Won-Chul;Han, Sang-Sub;Park, Chu-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.64-70
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    • 2008
  • This paper briefly discusses the main sources of errors and their solutions for measuring hydrogen uptake from gas phase by the Sieverts technique. Correction of volumetric errors of apparatus, density of hydrogen storage material, estimation of temperature gradient are investigated. Systematic errors and the change of density of the host material according to the pressure have been the subject of much controversy in recent years. We considered the standard ball calibration, temperature gradient distribution, pretreatment of hydrogen storage materials to minimize errors. We could lessen the miscalculations after applying those methods to Equilibrium pressure-composition isotherm data.

Partially linear support vector orthogonal quantile regression with measurement errors

  • Hwang, Changha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2015
  • Quantile regression models with covariate measurement errors have received a great deal of attention in both the theoretical and the applied statistical literature. A lot of effort has been devoted to develop effective estimation methods for such quantile regression models. In this paper we propose the partially linear support vector orthogonal quantile regression model in the presence of covariate measurement errors. We also provide a generalized approximate cross-validation method for choosing the hyperparameters and the ratios of the error variances which affect the performance of the proposed model. The proposed model is evaluated through simulations.

Inversion of Geophysical Data with Robust Estimation (로버스트추정에 의한 지구물리자료의 역산)

  • Kim, Hee Joon
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.433-438
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    • 1995
  • The most popular minimization method is based on the least-squares criterion, which uses the $L_2$ norm to quantify the misfit between observed and synthetic data. The solution of the least-squares problem is the maximum likelihood point of a probability density containing data with Gaussian uncertainties. The distribution of errors in the geophysical data is, however, seldom Gaussian. Using the $L_2$ norm, large and sparsely distributed errors adversely affect the solution, and the estimated model parameters may even be completely unphysical. On the other hand, the least-absolute-deviation optimization, which is based on the $L_1$ norm, has much more robust statistical properties in the presence of noise. The solution of the $L_1$ problem is the maximum likelihood point of a probability density containing data with longer-tailed errors than the Gaussian distribution. Thus, the $L_1$ norm gives more reliable estimates when a small number of large errors contaminate the data. The effect of outliers is further reduced by M-fitting method with Cauchy error criterion, which can be performed by iteratively reweighted least-squares method.

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