• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation error

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Litter Size and Sex Ratio in Yorkshire and Landrace Pigs (요크셔종과 랜드레이스종의 산자수 및 성비에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Lee, Kyung-Soo;Kim, Jong-Bok;Lee, Jeong-Koo
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.349-356
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to estimate heritabilities, repeatabilities and rank correlation coefficients among breeding values for litter size and sex ratio of Yorkshire and Landrace pigs using various single trait animal models. The analyses were carried out the data comprising 26,390 litters of Yorkshire and 26,173 litters of Landrace collected from the year 1998 to 2008 at a private swine breeding farm located in central part of Korea. Five different analytical models were used for genetic parameter estimation. Model 1 was most simple basic model fitted with year-month contemporary group fixed effect, random additive genetic effect and random residual effect. Model 2 was similar to the model 1 but permanent maternal environmental effect added as random effect, and model 3 was similar with the model 2 but linear and quadratic effects of sow age were added as fixed covariate effect. Model 4 was similar as model 2 except that the parity was added as fixed effect and model 5 was similar to model 3 or model 4 but covariate of sow age was nested within parity effect. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: The means and standard error of total number of pigs born per litter (TNB) and number of pigs born alive per litter (NBA) were $11.35{\pm}0.02$ and $10.04{\pm}0.02$ for Yorkshire, $10.97{\pm}0.02$ and $9.98{\pm}0.02$ for Landrace, respectively. The sex ratio (percentage of female per litter) was $45.75{\pm}0.11%$ and $45.75{\pm}0.11%$ for Yorkshire and Landrace, respectively. The heritability estimates of TNB (0.243) and NBA (0.192) from model 1 tended to be higher than those from any other models in both breeds. Differences in heritability and repeatability for TNB were not large among models 3, 4 and 5 and same tendency of negligible differences among estimates by models 3, 4 and 5 were observed for NBA, where heritability and repeatability ranged from 0.096 to 0.099 and from 0.188 to 0.193, respectively, in Yorkshire; and ranged from 0.092 to 0.098 and from 0.193 and 0.196, respectively, in Landrace. The heritability estimates for sex ratio were close to zero which was ranged from 0.002 to 0.003 for TNB and from 0.001 to 0.003 for NBA over the models applied. The rank correlation coefficients of breeding values by model 1 with those from other models (model 2, 3, 4 and 5), and breeding values by model 2 with those from other models (model 1, 3, 4 and 5) were highly positive but lower than the coefficients among breeding values by model 3, model 4 and model 5 which were high of 0.99, approximately, for TNB and NBA of both breeds.

Estimation of delay time between precipitation and groundwater level in the middle mountain area of Pyoseon watershed in Jeju Island using moving average method and cross correlation coefficient (이동평균법과 교차상관계수를 이용한 제주도 표선유역 중산간지역의 강수량과 지하수위 간의 지체시간 추정)

  • Shin, Mun-Ju;Moon, Soo-Hyoung;Koh, Gi-Won;Moon, Duk-Chul
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.7
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    • pp.533-543
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    • 2020
  • In order to provide information for proper management of groundwater resources, it is necessary to estimate the rise time of groundwater level by calculating the delay time between the time series of precipitation and groundwater level and to understand the characteristics of groundwater level variation. In this study, total delay time (TDT) and cross correlation coefficient between the moving averaged precipitation generated by using the moving average method to take into account the preceding precipitation and the groundwater level were calculated and analyzed for the nine groundwater level monitoring wells in the Pyoseon watershed in the southeast of Jeju Island. As a result, when the moving averaged precipitation was used, the correlation with the groundwater level was higher in all monitoring wells than in the case of using the raw precipitation, so that it was possible to more clearly estimate the delay time between precipitation and groundwater level. When using the moving averaged precipitation, it had cross correlation coefficients of up to 0.57 ~ 0.58 with the time series data of the groundwater level, and had a relatively high correlation when considering the preceding precipitation of about 24 days on average. The TDT was about 32 days on average, and it was confirmed that the consideration of preceding precipitation plays an important role in estimating the TDT because the days of moving averaged precipitation greatly influences the calculation of the TDT. In addition, through the use of moving averaged precipitation, we found an error in estimating the TDT due to the use of raw precipitation. Through the method of estimating the TDT used in this study and the use of the R code for estimating the TDT presented in the appendix of this paper, it will be possible to estimate the TDT for other regions in the future relatively easily.

THE BEST TEETH COMBINATION TO PREDICT MESIODISTAL DIAMETERS OF THE UNERUPTED CANINE AND PREMOLARS OF KOREANS (한국인에서 미맹출 견치와 소구치의 근원심 폭경 예측을 위한 최적의 치아조합)

  • Kim, So-Hwa;Kim, Seong-Oh;Choi, Hyung-Jun;Choi, Byung-Jai;Lee, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.430-437
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    • 2007
  • The probability table of Moyers and prediction equation of Tanaka and Johnston that have been the most frequently used, cannot produce accurate prediction when used in Korean because they are based on the Caucasian popularity of the Northern European race. The method of Moyers or Tanaka and Johnston predicts sizes of the unerupted canine and premolars on the basis of the sizes of mandibular incisors. However, some of the recent papers raise a question as to whether the mandibular incisors are the best combination to predict the sizes of the unerupted canine and premolars. The purpose of this study is to determine which sum or combination of sums of permanent tooth widths present the best prediction for the unerupted canine and premolars in a Korean sample, to calculate a specific linear regression equation for this population, and to evaluate the clinical significance. A new linear regression equation was calculated based on the data of 178 Korean young adults(70 women, 108 men, mean age 21.63 years) with complete permanent dentitions. Fifty three more children(28 girls, 25 boys, mean age 14.22 years) were used as a validation sample for the application of the multiple linear regression equation. The conclusions were as follows: 1. The combination of the sums of permanent upper central incisors, lower lateral incisors and upper first molars was the best predictor for the unerupted canine and premolars in this sample($r=0.65{\sim}0.80$). 2. The multiple linear regression equation was calculated including sex and arch as additional predictor variables. male, upper: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;6.195$ male, lower: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.269$ female, upper: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.929$ female, lower: $Y\;=\;0.332{\times}X_0\;+\;5.003$. The determination coefficient of the equation was 64% and a standard error of the estimate was 0.71mm. 3. In about 97% of the validation sample, the estimation of the tooth width sums of unerupted canine and premolars using the new multiple linear regression equation was smaller than 1mm compaired with the actual values.

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Application of The Semi-Distributed Hydrological Model(TOPMODEL) for Prediction of Discharge at the Deciduous and Coniferous Forest Catchments in Gwangneung, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea (경기도(京畿道) 광릉(光陵)의 활엽수림(闊葉樹林)과 침엽수림(針葉樹林) 유역(流域)의 유출량(流出量) 산정(算定)을 위한 준분포형(準分布型) 수문모형(水文模型)(TOPMODEL)의 적용(適用))

  • Kim, Kyongha;Jeong, Yongho;Park, Jaehyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.197-209
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    • 2001
  • TOPMODEL, semi-distributed hydrological model, is frequently applied to predict the amount of discharge, main flow pathways and water quality in a forested catchment, especially in a spatial dimension. TOPMODEL is a kind of conceptual model, not physical one. The main concept of TOPMODEL is constituted by the topographic index and soil transmissivity. Two components can be used for predicting the surface and subsurface contributing area. This study is conducted for the validation of applicability of TOPMODEL at small forested catchments in Korea. The experimental area is located at Gwangneung forest operated by Korea Forest Research Institute, Gyeonggi-do near Seoul metropolitan. Two study catchments in this area have been working since 1979 ; one is the natural mature deciduous forest(22.0 ha) about 80 years old and the other is the planted young coniferous forest(13.6 ha) about 22 years old. The data collected during the two events in July 1995 and June 2000 at the mature deciduous forest and the three events in July 1995 and 1999, August 2000 at the young coniferous forest were used as the observed data set, respectively. The topographic index was calculated using $10m{\times}10m$ resolution raster digital elevation map(DEM). The distribution of the topographic index ranged from 2.6 to 11.1 at the deciduous and 2.7 to 16.0 at the coniferous catchment. The result of the optimization using the forecasting efficiency as the objective function showed that the model parameter, m and the mean catchment value of surface saturated transmissivity, $lnT_0$ had a high sensitivity. The values of the optimized parameters for m and InT_0 were 0.034 and 0.038; 8.672 and 9.475 at the deciduous and 0.031, 0.032 and 0.033; 5.969, 7.129 and 7.575 at the coniferous catchment, respectively. The forecasting efficiencies resulted from the simulation using the optimized parameter were comparatively high ; 0.958 and 0.909 at the deciduous and 0.825, 0.922 and 0.961 at the coniferous catchment. The observed and simulated hyeto-hydrograph shoed that the time of lag to peak coincided well. Though the total runoff and peakflow of some events showed a discrepancy between the observed and simulated output, TOPMODEL could overall predict a hydrologic output at the estimation error less than 10 %. Therefore, TOPMODEL is useful tool for the prediction of runoff at an ungaged forested catchment in Korea.

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Comparative Assessment of the Half-lives of Benfuresate and Oxolinic Acid Estimated from Kinetic Models Under Field Soil Conditions (포장조건에서 Kinetic Models로부터 산출한 Benfuresate 및 Oxolinic Acid의 토양중 반감기 비교평가)

  • Yang, Jae-E.;Park, Dong-Sik;Han, Dae-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.302-311
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    • 1995
  • Benfuresate or oxolinic acid, as an experimental pesticide, was applied to the different textural paddy or upland soil respectively under the field condition and the residual concentrations were determined. Six kinetic models were employed to characterize the best-fit kinetic model describing the residual pattern of benfuresate or oxolinic acid and the $t\frac{1}{2}$ estimated from each model was comparatively assessed. All of the six models explained significantly the residual patterns of the pesticides but the empirical models such as PF, EL, and PB were not recommendable for the $t\frac{1}{2}$ estimation. Among theoretical models, the residual patterns were followed in the orders of the second-order(SO)>first-order(FO)>zero-order(ZO) kinetics, judging from the size and significance of coefficient of determination and standard error. However, the multiple FO model, consisting of the fast and slow decomposition steps, was better than the single FO model for the residual pattern and the $r^2$ in this case became similar to that of SO kinetic model. Thus the multiple FO and SO models were represented as the best fit model of the experimental pesticide. The $t\frac{1}{2}$ of benfuresate estimated from the single FO kinetic model in Weolgog and Cheongwon series was 49 and 63 days, respectively, which were 20 and 13% longer than the respective $t\frac{1}{2}$ from the SO kinetic model. The $t\frac{1}{2}$ of oxolinic acid from the FO model in Yonggye and Ihyeon series were 87 and 51% longer than those from the SO kinetic model, respectively. These results demonstrated that the best-fit model representing the residual pattern of a pesticide and the resultant $t\frac{1}{2}$ might be variable with the kinds of pesticides and the environmental conditions. Therefore it is recommended that the half-life of a pesticide be assessed from the best-fit model rather than from the FO kinetic model uniformly.

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Studies on Estimation of Fish Abundance Using an Echo Sounder ( 1 ) - Experimental Verification of the Theory for Estimating Fish Density- (어군탐지기에 의한 어군량 추정에 관한 기초적 연구 ( 1 ) - 어군량추정이론의 검증실험 -)

  • 이대재
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 1991
  • An experiment has been carefully designed and performed to verify the theory for the echointergration technique of estimating the density of fish school by the use of steel spheres in a laboratory tank. The spheres used to simulate a fish school were randomly distributed throughout the insonified volume to produce the acoustic echoes similar to those scattered from real fish schools. The backscattered echoes were measured as a function of target density at tow frequencies of 50kHz and 200kHz. Data acquisition, processing and analysis were performed by means of the microcomputer-based sonar-echo processor including a FFT analyzer. Acoustic scattering characteristics of a 36cm mackerel was investigated by measuring fish echoes with frequencies ranging from 47.8kHz to 52.0kHz. The fluctuation of bottom echoes caused by the effects of fish-school attenuation and multiple scattering which occurred in dense aggregations of fishes was also examined by analyzing the echograms of sardine schools obtained by a 50kHz telesounder in the set-net's bagnet, and the echograms obtained by a scientific echo sounder of 50kHz in the East China Sea, respectively. The results obtained can be summarized as follows: 1. The measured and the calculated echo shapes on the steel sphere used to simulate a fish school were in close agreement. 2. The waveform and amplitude of echo signals by a mackerel without swimbladder fluctuated irregularly with the measuring frequency. 3. When a collection of 30 targets/m super(3) lied the shadow region behind another collection of 5 targets/m super(3), the mean losses in echo energy for the 30 targets/m super(3) were about -0.4dB at 50kHz and about -0.2dB at 200kHz, respectively. 4. In the echograms obtained in the East China Sea, the bottom echoes fluctuated remarkably when the dense aggregations of fish appeared between transducer and seabed. Especially, in the case of the echograms of sardine school obtained in a set-net's bagnet, the disappearance of bottom echoes and the lengthening of the echo trace by fish aggregations were observed. Then the mean density of the sardine school was estimated as 36 fish/m super(3). It suggests that when the distribution density of fishes in oceans is greater than this density, the effects of fish-school attenuation and multiple scattering must be taken into account as a possible source of error in fish abundance estimates. 5. The relationship between mean backscattering strength (, dB) and target density ($\rho$, No./m super(3)) were expressed by the equations: =-46.2+13.7 Log($\rho$) at 50kHz and =-43.9+13.4 Log($\rho$) at 200kHz. 6. The difference between the experimentally derived number and the actual number of targets gradually decreased with an increase in the target density and was within 20% when the density was 30 targets/m super(3). From these results, we concluded that when the number of targets in the insonified volume is large, the validity of the echo-integration technique of estimating the density of fish schools could be expected.

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Koreanized Analysis System Development for Groundwater Flow Interpretation (지하수유동해석을 위한 한국형 분석시스템의 개발)

  • Choi, Yun-Yeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.3 no.3 s.10
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2003
  • In this study, the algorithm of groundwater flow process was established for koreanized groundwater program development dealing with the geographic and geologic conditions of the aquifer have dynamic behaviour in groundwater flow system. All the input data settings of the 3-DFM model which is developed in this study are organized in Korean, and the model contains help function for each input data. Thus, it is designed to get detailed information about each input parameter when the mouse pointer is placed on the corresponding input parameter. This model also is designed to easily specify the geologic boundary condition for each stratum or initial head data in the work sheet. In addition, this model is designed to display boxes for input parameter writing for each analysis condition so that the setting for each parameter is not so complicated as existing MODFLOW is when steady and unsteady flow analysis are performed as well as the analysis for the characteristics of each stratum. Descriptions for input data are displayed on the right side of the window while the analysis results are displayed on the left side as well as the TXT file for this results is available to see. The model developed in this study is a numerical model using finite differential method, and the applicability of the model was examined by comparing and analyzing observed and simulated groundwater heads computed by the application of real recharge amount and the estimation of parameters. The 3-DFM model is applied in this study to Sehwa-ri, and Songdang-ri area, Jeju, Korea for analysis of groundwater flow system according to pumping, and obtained the results that the observed and computed groundwater head were almost in accordance with each other showing the range of 0.03 - 0.07 error percent. It is analyzed that the groundwater flow distributed evenly from Nopen-orum and Munseogi-orum to Wolang-bong, Yongnuni-orum, and Songja-bong through the computation of equipotentials and velocity vector using the analysis result of simulation which was performed before the pumping started in the study area. These analysis results show the accordance with MODFLOW's.

Analysis on the Positional Accuracy of the Non-orthogonal Two-pair kV Imaging Systems for Real-time Tumor Tracking Using XCAT (XCAT를 이용한 실시간 종양 위치 추적을 위한 비직교 스테레오 엑스선 영상시스템에서의 위치 추정 정확도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Hanseong;Kim, Youngju;Oh, Ohsung;Lee, Seho;Jeon, Hosang;Lee, Seung Wook
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2015
  • In this study, we aim to design the architecture of the kV imaging system for tumor tracking in the dual-head gantry system and analyze its accuracy by simulations. We established mathematical formulas and algorithms to track the tumor position with the two-pair kV imaging systems when they are in the non-orthogonal positions. The algorithms have been designed in the homogeneous coordinate framework and the position of the source and the detector coordinates are used to estimate the tumor position. 4D XCAT (4D extended cardiac-torso) software was used in the simulation to identify the influence of the angle between the two-pair kV imaging systems and the resolution of the detectors to the accuracy in the position estimation. A metal marker fiducial has been inserted in a numerical human phantom of XCAT and the kV projections were acquired at various angles and resolutions using CT projection software of the XCAT. As a result, a positional accuracy of less than about 1mm was achieved when the resolution of the detector is higher than 1.5 mm/pixel and the angle between the kV imaging systems is approximately between $90^{\circ}$ and $50^{\circ}$. When the resolution is lower than 1.5 mm/pixel, the positional errors were higher than 1mm and the error fluctuation by the angles was greater. The resolution of the detector was critical in the positional accuracy for the tumor tracking and determines the range for the acceptable angle range between the kV imaging systems. Also, we found that the positional accuracy analysis method using XCAT developed in this study is highly useful and will be a invaluable tool for further refined design of the kV imaging systems for tumor tracking systems.

A Study on the Allowable Bearing Capacity of Pile by Driving Formulas (각종 항타공식에 의한 말뚝의 허용지지력 연구)

  • Lee, Jean-Soo;Chang, Yong-Chai;Kim, Yong-Keol
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.106-111
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    • 2002
  • The estimation of pile bearing capacity is important since the design details are determined from the result. There are numerous ways of determining the pile design load, but only few of them are chosen in the actual design. According to the recent investigation in Korea, the formulas proposed by Meyerhof based on the SPT N values are most frequently chosen in the design stage. In the study, various static and dynamic formulas have been used in predicting the allowable bearing capacity of a pile. Further, the reliability of these formulas has been verified by comparing the perdicted values with the static and dynamic load test measurements. Also, in most cases, these methods of pile bearing capacity determination do not take the time effect consideration, the actual allowable load as determined from pile load test indicates severe deviation from the design value. The principle results of this study are summarized as follows : As a result of estimate the reliability in criterion of the Davisson method, t was showed that Terzaghi & Peck >Chin>Meyerhof > Modified Meyerhof method was the most reliable method for the prediction of bearing capacity. Comparisons of the various pile-driving formulas showed that Modified Engineering News was the most reliable method. However, a significant error happened between dynamic bearing capacity equation was judged that uncertainty of hammer efficiency, characteristics of variable, time effect etc... was not considered. As a result of considering time effect increased skin friction capacity higher than end bearing capacity. It was found out that it would be possible to increase the skin friction capacity 1.99 times higher than a driving. As a result of considering 7 day's time effect, it was obtained that Engineering news, Modified Engineering News, Hiley, Danish, Gates, CAPWAP(CAse Pile Wave Analysis Program) analysis for relation, repectively, $Q_{u(Restrike)} / Q_{u(EOID)} = 0.98t_{0.1}$ , $0.98t_{0.1}$, $1.17t_{0.1}$, $0.88t_{0.1}$, $0.89t_{0.1}$, $0.97t_{0.1}$.

The Evaluation of Meteorological Inputs retrieved from MODIS for Estimation of Gross Primary Productivity in the US Corn Belt Region (MODIS 위성 영상 기반의 일차생산성 알고리즘 입력 기상 자료의 신뢰도 평가: 미국 Corn Belt 지역을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Ji-Hye;Kang, Sin-Kyu;Jang, Keun-Chang;Ko, Jong-Han;Hong, Suk-Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.481-494
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    • 2011
  • Investigation of the $CO_2$ exchange between biosphere and atmosphere at regional, continental, and global scales can be directed to combining remote sensing with carbon cycle process to estimate vegetation productivity. NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) currently produces a regular global estimate of gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual net primary productivity (NPP) of the entire terrestrial earth surface at 1 km spatial resolution. While the MODIS GPP algorithm uses meteorological data provided by the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the sub-pixel heterogeneity or complex terrain are generally reflected due to coarse spatial resolutions of the DAO data (a resolution of $1{\circ}\;{\times}\;1.25{\circ}$). In this study, we estimated inputs retrieved from MODIS products of the AQUA and TERRA satellites with 5 km spatial resolution for the purpose of finer GPP and/or NPP determinations. The derivatives included temperature, VPD, and solar radiation. Seven AmeriFlux data located in the Corn Belt region were obtained to use for evaluation of the input data from MODIS. MODIS-derived air temperature values showed a good agreement with ground-based observations. The mean error (ME) and coefficient of correlation (R) ranged from $-0.9^{\circ}C$ to $+5.2^{\circ}C$ and from 0.83 to 0.98, respectively. VPD somewhat coarsely agreed with tower observations (ME = -183.8 Pa ~ +382.1 Pa; R = 0.51 ~ 0.92). While MODIS-derived shortwave radiation showed a good correlation with observations, it was slightly overestimated (ME = -0.4 MJ $day^{-1}$ ~ +7.9 MJ $day^{-1}$; R = 0.67 ~ 0.97). Our results indicate that the use of inputs derived MODIS atmosphere and land products can provide a useful tool for estimating crop GPP.