• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Models

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Estimating Automobile Insurance Premiums Based on Time Series Regression (시계열 회귀모형에 근거한 자동차 보험료 추정)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Park, Wonseo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.237-252
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    • 2013
  • An estimation model for premiums and components is essential to determine reasonable insurance premiums. In this study, we introduce diverse models for the estimation of property damage premiums(premium, depth and frequency) that include a regression model using a dummy variable, additive independent variable model, autoregressive error model, seasonal ARIMA model and intervention model. In addition, the actual property damage premium data was used to estimate the premium, depth and frequency for each model. The estimation results of the models are comparatively examined by comparing the RMSE(Root Mean Squared Errors) of estimates and actual data. Based on real data analysis, we found that the autoregressive error model showed the best performance.

Proposal and Evaluation of the Safety Inspection Cost Estimation Model for Multi-building Construction Project (군집시설물 건설공사의 안전점검 대가 산정모델 제안 및 평가)

  • Kim, Jin-Won;Bang, Jong-Dae;Sohn, Jeong-Rak
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Structure & Construction
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    • v.33 no.12
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2017
  • The safety inspection cost of the construction work was based on commercial facilities classified as a single building. Therefore, it is not possible to fully reflect the characteristics of the multi-building construction project such as apartment houses. Therefore, this study suggests a reasonable estimation model that can fully reflect the characteristics of the multi-building construction project. The safety inspection cost estimation model proposed two models such as construction cost ratio method and cost plus fixed fee method. And these models were simulated by the apartment construction work and compared with the current standard. As a result, the current construction cost ratio method has shown that the safety inspection cost tends to be overestimated as the construction size increases. Therefore, the proposed model has reflected characteristics of the multi-building construction project, so that it can reasonably estimate the safety inspection cost more than the current standard.

State of Health Estimation for Lithium-Ion Batteries Using Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN을 이용한 리튬 이온 배터리의 건강 상태 추정)

  • Hong, Seon-Ri;Kang, Moses;Jeong, Hak-Geun;Baek, Jong-Bok;Kim, Jong-Hoon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.183-191
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    • 2021
  • A battery management system (BMS) provides some functions for ensuring safety and reliability that includes algorithms estimating battery states. Given the changes caused by various operating conditions, the state-of-health (SOH), which represents a figure of merit of the battery's ability to store and deliver energy, becomes challenging to estimate. Machine learning methods can be applied to perform accurate SOH estimation. In this study, we propose a Long-Term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN) that combines the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) to extract aging characteristics and learn temporal mechanisms. The dataset collected by the battery aging experiments of NASA PCoE is used to train models. The input dataset used part of the charging profile. The accuracy of the proposed model is compared with the CNN and LSTM models using the k-fold cross-validation technique. The proposed model achieves a low RMSE of 2.21%, which shows higher accuracy than others in SOH estimation.

Pose Estimation and Image Matching for Tidy-up Task using a Robot Arm (로봇 팔을 활용한 정리작업을 위한 물체 자세추정 및 이미지 매칭)

  • Piao, Jinglan;Jo, HyunJun;Song, Jae-Bok
    • The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.299-305
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the task of robotic tidy-up is to clean the current environment up exactly like a target image. To perform a tidy-up task using a robot, it is necessary to estimate the pose of various objects and to classify the objects. Pose estimation requires the CAD model of an object, but these models of most objects in daily life are not available. Therefore, this study proposes an algorithm that uses point cloud and PCA to estimate the pose of objects without the help of CAD models in cluttered environments. In addition, objects are usually detected using a deep learning-based object detection. However, this method has a limitation in that only the learned objects can be recognized, and it may take a long time to learn. This study proposes an image matching based on few-shot learning and Siamese network. It was shown from experiments that the proposed method can be effectively applied to the robotic tidy-up system, which showed a success rate of 85% in the tidy-up task.

A Study on the Diffusion Pattern of Mongolian Mobile Market (몽골 이동통신 시장의 확산 패턴 연구)

  • Enkhzaya Batmunkh;Jungsik Hong;TaeguKim
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.691-700
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to analyze the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian mobile phone market. In particular, we used a generalized diffusion model to explore the factors affecting market potenial. Methods: We used three diffusion models to estimate the number of mobile subscribers in Mongolia. Based on the Logistic model with the best fitness, we introduced time-varying market potential and explored the influence of various independent variables such as GDP and inflation. Results: Among the basic diffusion models, the Logistic model was the best in terms of estimation performance and statistical significance. The estimation results of the Generalized Logistic model confirm that investment in the telecommunication sector has a significant positive effect on market potential. The estimation of the Generalized Logistic model effectively describes the continuous growth of the Mongolian telecommunications market until recently. Conclusion: We have analyzed the diffusion pattern of the Mongolian telecommunications market and found that the amount of investment in the sector leads to the growth of the market size. This study is original in terms of its subject - Mongolian telecommunications market and methodology - time-varying market potential.

Parameter Estimation and Comparison for SRGMs and ARIMA Model in Software Failure Data

  • Song, Kwang Yoon;Chang, In Hong;Lee, Dong Su
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2014
  • As the requirement on the quality of the system has increased, the reliability is very important part in terms of enhance stability and to provide high quality services to customers. Many statistical models have been developed in the past years for the estimation of software reliability. We consider the functions for NHPP software reliability model and time series model in software failure data. We estimate parameters for the proposed models from three data sets. The values of SSE and MSE is presented from three data sets. We compare the predicted number of faults with the actual three data sets using the NHPP software reliability model and time series model.

Cutting force estimation using spindle and feeddrive motor currents in milling processes (밀링공정에서 이송모터와 주축모터의 전류신호를 이용한 절삭력 추정)

  • 김승철;정성종
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.1407-1410
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    • 1997
  • Advanced sensor design and filtering technology have been studied to obtain information for condition monitoring and diagnostics inmachining processes. To develope and economic monitoring system in end milling processes, indirect and reliable type of cutting force estimators were required. In this paper, an estimation method of cutting forces during end milling processes was studied through the measurement of current signals obtained from spindle and feeddrive motors. Cutting force and torque models were derived from the cutting geometry in down milling processes. Relationships between motor currents and cutting forces were also developed in the form of AC and DC components from the developed force models. The validity of the cutting force estimator was confirmed by the experiments under various cutting conditions.

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A Cost Estimation Model for Highway Projects in Korea

  • Kim, Soo-Yong;Kim, Young-Mok;Luu, Truong-Van
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.922-925
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    • 2008
  • Many highway projects are under way in Korea. However, owners frequently find that the project cost exceeds the budget and they are unable to identify the underlining reasons. The main purpose of this research is to develop cost models for transportation projects in Korea using the multiple linear regression (MLR). The data consist of 27 completed transportation projects, built from 1991 to 2001, The technique of multiple regression analysis is used to develop the parametric cost estimating model for total budget cost per highway square meter (TBC/$m^2$). Findings of the study indicated that MLR car be applied to highway projects in Korea. There are twf) major contributions of this research. (1) the identification of transportation parameters as a significant cost driver for transportation costs and (2) the successful development of the parametric cost estimating models for transportation projects in Korea.

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IIR Structure Secondary Path Estimation Algorithms for Active Noise Control Systems (능동소음제어를 위한 IIR 구조 2차경로 추정 알고리즘)

  • Choi, Young-Hun;Ahn, Dong-Jun;Nam, Hyun-Do
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, IIR structures are proposed to reduce the computation complexity of the secondary-pass estimation in active noise control(ANC) systems. However, there are stability problems of using IIR models to reduce the computation complexity in ANC systems. To overcome these problems, we propose a stabilizing procedure of recursive least mean squares (RLMS) algorithms for eatimating the parameters of IIR models of the secondary path transfer functions. The multichannel ANC systems are implemented by using the TMS320C6713 DSP board to test the performance of computation complexity and stability of the proposed methods. Comparing the IIR filters with the FIR filters, the IIR filters can reduce 50[%] of the computation and obtain similar noise reduction result.

Prediction Value Estimation in Transformed GARCH Models (변환된 GARCH모형에서의 예측값 추정)

  • Park, Ju-Yeon;Yeo, In-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.971-979
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we introduce the method that reduces the bias when the transformation and back-transformation approach is applied in GARCH models. A parametric bootstrap is employed to compute the conditional expectation which is the prediction value to minimize mean square errors in the original scale. Through the analyese of returns of KOSPI and KOSDAQ, we verified that the proposed method provides a bias-reduced estimation for the prediction value.