• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Errors

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Improvement of Vegetation Cooling Effects in BioCAS for Better Estimation of Daily Maximum Temperature during Heat Waves - In Case of the Seoul Metropolitan Area - (식생냉각효과 적용을 통한 BioCAS의 폭염기간 일 최고기온 추정 개선 - 서울 및 수도권지역을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Hankyung;Yi, Chaeyeon;Kim, Kyu Rang;Cho, Changbum
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.131-147
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    • 2019
  • On the urban scale, Micro-climate analysis models for urban scale have been developed to investigate the atmospheric characteristics in urban surface in detail and to predict the micro-climate change due to the changes in urban structure. BioCAS (Biometeorological Climate Impact Assessment System) is a system that combines such analysis models and has been implemented internally in the Korea Meteorological Administration. One of role in this system is the analysis of the health impact by heat waves in urban area. In this study, the vegetation cooling models A and B were developed and linked with BioCAS and evaluated by the temperature drop at the vegetation areas during ten selected heat-wave days. Smaller prediction errors were found as a result of applying the vegetation cooling models to the heat-wave days. In addition, it was found that the effects of the vegetation cooling models produced different results according to the distribution of vegetation area in land cover near each observation site - the improvement of the model performance on temperature analysis was different according to land use at each location. The model A was better fitted where the surrounding vegetation ratio was 50% or more, whereas the model B was better where the vegetation ratio was less than 50% (higher building and impervious areas). Through this study, it should be possible to select an appropriate vegetation cooling model according to its fraction coverage so that the temperature analysis around built-up areas would be improved.

Estimation of bearing error of line array sonar system caused by bottom bounced path (해저면 반사신호의 선 배열 소나 방위 오차 해석)

  • Oh, Raegeun;Gu, Bon-Sung;Kim, Sunhyo;Song, Taek-Lyul;Choi, Jee Woong;Son, Su-Uk;Kim, Won-Ki;Bae, Ho Seuk
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.412-421
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    • 2018
  • The Line array sonar consisting of several hydrophones increases array gain and improves the performance for detecting the direction of the target compared to single hydrophone. However, line array sonar produces the bearing error that makes it difficult to determine the bearing of incoming source signal due to the relation between bearing angle of target and vertical angle of multipath signals. Vertical angles of multipath are varied with the geometry of receiver and target and various underwater environments, therefore it is necessary to consider the bearing error to estimate accurately the bearing of the target. In this study, acoustic modelling was performed to understand the effect of multipath signals on the target signal. The errors of bearing angle estimated from the bottom bounced signals are calculated with several environment. In addition, the expected bearing line, as a function of source-receiver range, compensated for the bearing error is predicted from the estimated bearing angle.

An Exploration of the Improvement Direction for Decimal Fractional Multiplication Unit in Textbooks (소수 곱셈 단원의 교과서 개선 방향 탐색)

  • Kim, Sukyoung;Kim, Jinsook;Kwon, Sungyong
    • Journal of Elementary Mathematics Education in Korea
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.475-496
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    • 2018
  • Although the multiplication of decimal fractions is expected to be easy for students to understand because of the similarity to natural numbers multiplication in computing methods, students show many errors in the multiplication of decimal fractions. This is a result of the instruction focused more on skill mastery than conceptual understanding. This study is a basic study for effectively developing a unit of multiplication of decimal fractions. For this purpose, we analyzed the curriculums' performance standards, significance in teaching-learning and evaluation, contents and methods for teaching multiplication of decimal fractions from the 7th curriculum to the revised curriculum of 2015 and the textbooks' activities and lessons. Further, we analyzed preceding studies and introductory books to suggest effective directions for developing teaching unit. As a result of the analysis, three implications were obtained: First, a meaningful instruction for estimation is needed. Second, it is necessary to present a visual model suitable for understanding the meaning of decimal multiplication. Third, the process of formalizing an algorithms for multiplying decimal fractions needs to be diversified.

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Modeling of Flow-Accelerated Corrosion using Machine Learning: Comparison between Random Forest and Non-linear Regression (기계학습을 이용한 유동가속부식 모델링: 랜덤 포레스트와 비선형 회귀분석과의 비교)

  • Lee, Gyeong-Geun;Lee, Eun Hee;Kim, Sung-Woo;Kim, Kyung-Mo;Kim, Dong-Jin
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2019
  • Flow-Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) is a phenomenon in which a protective coating on a metal surface is dissolved by a flow of fluid in a metal pipe, leading to continuous wall-thinning. Recently, many countries have developed computer codes to manage FAC in power plants, and the FAC prediction model in these computer codes plays an important role in predictive performance. Herein, the FAC prediction model was developed by applying a machine learning method and the conventional nonlinear regression method. The random forest, a widely used machine learning technique in predictive modeling led to easy calculation of FAC tendency for five input variables: flow rate, temperature, pH, Cr content, and dissolved oxygen concentration. However, the model showed significant errors in some input conditions, and it was difficult to obtain proper regression results without using additional data points. In contrast, nonlinear regression analysis predicted robust estimation even with relatively insufficient data by assuming an empirical equation and the model showed better predictive power when the interaction between DO and pH was considered. The comparative analysis of this study is believed to provide important insights for developing a more sophisticated FAC prediction model.

Autoencoder factor augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model (오토인코더를 이용한 요인 강화 HAR 모형)

  • Park, Minsu;Baek, Changryong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2022
  • Realized volatility is well known to have long memory, strong association with other global financial markets and interdependences among macroeconomic indices such as exchange rate, oil price and interest rates. This paper proposes autoencoder factor-augmented heterogeneous autoregressive (AE-FAHAR) model for realized volatility forecasting. AE-FAHAR incorporates long memory using HAR structure, and exogenous variables into few factors summarized by autoencoder. Autoencoder requires intensive calculation due to its nonlinear structure, however, it is more suitable to summarize complex, possibly nonstationary high-dimensional time series. Our AE-FAHAR model is shown to have smaller out-of-sample forecasting error in empirical analysis. We also discuss pre-training, ensemble in autoencoder to reduce computational cost and estimation errors.

ESTIMATION OF NITROGEN-TO-IRON ABUNDANCE RATIOS FROM LOW-RESOLUTION SPECTRA

  • Kim, Changmin;Lee, Young Sun;Beers, Timothy C.;Masseron, Thomas
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.23-36
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    • 2022
  • We present a method to determine nitrogen abundance ratios with respect to iron ([N/Fe]) from molecular CN-band features observed in low-resolution (R ~ 2000) stellar spectra obtained by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). Various tests are carried out to check the systematic and random errors of our technique, and the impact of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of stellar spectra on the determined [N/Fe]. We find that the uncertainty of our derived [N/Fe] is less than 0.3 dex for S/N ratios larger than 10 in the ranges Teff = [4000, 6000] K, log g = [0.0, 3.5], [Fe/H] = [-3.0, 0.0], [C/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], and [N/Fe] = [-1.0, +4.5], the parameter space that we are interested in to identify N-enhanced stars in the Galactic halo. A star-by-star comparison with a sample of stars with [N/Fe] estimates available from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) also suggests a similar level of uncertainty in our measured [N/Fe], after removing its systematic error. Based on these results, we conclude that our method is able to reproduce [N/Fe] from low-resolution spectroscopic data, with an uncertainty sufficiently small to discover N-rich stars that presumably originated from disrupted Galactic globular clusters.

A Study on Mine Localization of Forward Looking Sonar Considering the Effect of Underwater Sound Refraction (수중 음파 굴절효과를 고려한 전방주시소나 기뢰 위치 추정기법 연구)

  • Sul, Hoseok;Oh, Raegeun;Yang, Wonjun;Yoon, Young Geul;Choi, Jee Woong;Han, Sangkyu;Kwon, Bumsoo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.231-238
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    • 2022
  • Mine detection has been mainly studied with images of the forward-looking sonar. Forward-looking sonar assumes the propagation path of the sound wave as a straight path, creating the surrounding images. This might lead to errors in the detection by ignoring the refraction of the sound wave. In this study, we propose a mine localization method that can robustly identify the location of mines in an underwater environment by considering the refraction of sound waves. We propose a method of estimating the elevation angle of arrival of the target echo signal in a single receiver, and estimate the mine location by applying the estimated elevation angle of arrival to ray tracing. As a result of simulation, the method proposed in this paper was more effective in estimating the mine localization than the existing method that assumed the propagation path as a straight line.

The Role of Franchising on the Restaurant Firms' Performance during COVID-19 (코로나-19 팬데믹 상황에서 외식기업의 경영성과와 프랜차이즈의 역할)

  • SUN, Kyung-A;KIM, Seung-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: COVID-19 has negatively influenced the financial performance of restaurant firms. Previous literature suggests that the franchising strategy effectively helps restaurant firms recover from difficult business conditions through various methods for expanding business size and enhancing business efficiency. According to risk-sharing theory, restaurant franchisors may minimize operational risks by sharing the risks with their franchisees. For instance, restaurant franchisors could generate more stable cash flow using franchise fees from their franchisees. However, research on the effect of franchise's risk reduction factor on business performance during pandemic is scarce. Thus, this study aims to examine the positive moderating effect of franchising between COVID-19 and restaurants' financial performance. Research design, data, and methodology: Panel data including financial information and franchising status of restaurant firms were collected for analysis. In order to control for unobserved firm-specific factors, generalized least squared estimation in fixed effects model was conducted. Huber-White robust standard errors were used to deal with heteroscedasticity issues. Results: It was found that COVID-19 pandemic has a negative effect on the restaurants' financial performance such as ROA (return on assets), ROE (return on equity), and PM (profit margins), which confirms the findings from existing literature. More importantly, results show that the degree of franchising has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between COVID-19 and financial performance of restaurant firms. This suggests that more active engagement in franchising may decrease negative impacts of COVID-19 on the restaurants' financial performance. Conclusions: The study supports existing literature related to risk-sharing theory, by confirming that pandemics, such as COVID-19, negatively affect financial performance of the restaurants. Furthermore, it was found that franchising strategy can help lessen negative impacts of pandemics on the firm performance. These findings can contribute to the franchise and restaurant management literature by suggesting the role of franchising in reducing business risks, thereby positively affecting financial performance. Moreover, this study offers business managers of franchisors and franchisees insights for utilizing franchising in restaurant risk management. Policymakers may also gain information on aiding restaurant firms during global crisis, such as COVID-19.

Aspects of size effect on discrete element modeling of normal strength concrete

  • Gyurko, Zoltan;Nemes, Rita
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.521-532
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    • 2021
  • Present paper focuses on the modeling of size effect on the compressive strength of normal concrete with the application of Discrete Element Method (DEM). Test specimens with different size and shape were cast and uniaxial compressive strength test was performed on each sample. Five different concrete mixes were used, all belonging to a different normal strength concrete class (C20/25, C30/37, C35/45, C45/55, and C50/60). The numerical simulations were carried out by using the PFC 5 software, which applies rigid spheres and contacts between them to model the material. DEM modeling of size effect could be advantageous because the development of micro-cracks in the material can be observed and the failure mode can be visualized. The series of experiments were repeated with the model after calibration. The relationship of the parallel bond strength of the contacts and the laboratory compressive strength test was analyzed by aiming to determine a relation between the compressive strength and the bond strength of different sized models. An equation was derived based on Bazant's size effect law to estimate the parallel bond strength of differently sized specimens. The parameters of the equation were optimized based on measurement data using nonlinear least-squares method with SSE (sum of squared errors) objective function. The laboratory test results showed a good agreement with the literature data (compressive strength is decreasing with the increase of the size of the specimen regardless of the shape). The derived estimation models showed strong correlation with the measurement data. The results indicated that the size effect is stronger on concretes with lower strength class due to the higher level of inhomogeneity of the material. It was observed that size effect is more significant on cube specimens than on cylinder samples, which can be caused by the side ratios of the specimens and the size of the purely compressed zone. A limit value for the minimum size of DE model for cubes and cylinder was determined, above which the size effect on compressive strength can be neglected within the investigated size range. The relationship of model size (particle number) and computational time was analyzed and a method to decrease the computational time (number of iterations) of material genesis is proposed.

Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus in Treatise on Cold Damage (상한론(傷寒論)에서 대조(大棗)의 1 일 복용량)

  • Kim, In-Rak
    • The Korea Journal of Herbology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2013
  • Objectives : As Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus was designated by the numbers in Treatise on Cold Damage Disease, estimation of Daily Dose was all different among researchers. The purpose of this study was to estimate exact Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus. Methods : We fixed the errors in various copy of Treatise on Cold Damage Disease and considered the meaning of the Bee Zizyphi Fructus(肥大棗) and general rules of Daily Dose in Treatise on Cold Damage Disease. So we reduced Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus, and compared this with the standard of Zizyphy Fructus in Pharmacopoeia of several Nation and Korean Forest Service. Results : Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus was generally 12 pieces; less was for prescriptions which scaled down the amount of ingredients prescribed in the originals; 15, 25, and 30 pieces were used when more was required. The medicinal part was the pulp of fructus, and the dosage of 12 pieces was respectively equivalent to 3 Ryang(兩), and 19.5 g. As defined in the Korean Pharmacopoeia Ninth Edition and standards of forest products by Korea Forest Service, Zizyphi Fructus was medium-sized, and weighs about 1.625 g if properly dehydrated. Conclusions : In short, the proper Daily Dose of Zizyphi Fructus in Treatise on Cold damage Disease was 12 pieces of Zizyphi Fructus and 19.5 g of its pulp, weighing three Ryang(兩). The pulp was estimated to be 1.625 g; it was medium-sized according to the present standard.