• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimates

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Introduction of Inverse Analysis Model Using Geostatistical Evolution Strategy and Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity Distribution in Synthetic Aquifer (지구통계학적 진화전략 역산해석 기법의 소개 및 가상 대수층 수리전도도 분포 예측에의 적용)

  • Park, Eungyu
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.703-713
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    • 2020
  • In many geological fields, including hydrogeology, it is of great importance to determine the heterogeneity of the subsurface media. This study briefly introduces the concept and theory of the method that can estimate the hydraulic properties of the media constituting the aquifer, which was recently introduced by Park (2020). After the introduction, the method was applied to the synthetic aquifer to demonstrate the practicality, from which various implications were drawn. The introduced technique uses a global optimization technique called the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES). Conceptually, it is a methodology to characterize the aquifer heterogeneity by assimilating the groundwater level time-series data due to the imposed hydraulic stress. As a result of applying the developed technique to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of a hypothetical aquifer, it was confirmed that a total of 40000 unknown values were estimated in an affordable computational time. In addition, the results of the estimates showed a close numerical and structural similarity to the reference hydraulic conductivity field, confirming that the quality of the estimation by the proposed method is high. In this study, the developed method was applied to a limited case, but it is expected that it can be applied to a wider variety of cases through additional development of the method. The development technique has the potential to be applied not only to the field of hydrogeology, but also to various fields of geology and geophysics. Further development of the method is currently underway.

Dynamic Analysis on Electricity Demands for the Steel Industry in Korea: Comparison between SMEs and Large Firms (우리나라 철강산업의 전력수요에 대한 동태 분석: 중소기업과 대기업 간 비교)

  • Li, Dmitriy;Bae, Jeong Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.499-520
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    • 2020
  • Input ratio of electricity to other production inputs in the Korean manufacturing sector has been higher than for the other OECD countries. In addition, electricity prices in Korea has been relatively lower than the average of OECD countries. Moreover, electricity sector is responsible for most CO2 emissions in Korea as coal and natural gas account 41.9% and 26.8% of electricity production as of 2018. Therefore, it looks inevitable to raise the electricity tariff for the manufacturing sector in Korea, but there is a concern that increase in the electricity tariff might affect small and medium enterprises (SMEs) more than large firms. This study estimates electricity demand's price and output elasticities for large firms and SMEs in steel industry by employing a time varying parameter model (Kalman filter). The analysis shows that changes in output levels regardless of firms' size affect electricity demands more significantly than do changes in electricity prices. Second, large firms have higher variances for both price and output elasticities of electricity demand. Third, large firms have higher price elasticity but lower output elasticity of electricity demand relative to SMEs. Policy implications are suggested in association with how to reduce electricity demands in the energy-intensive industry.

Estimation of Unit Cost by Handling Cargo in Busan New Port DistriPark (부산항 신항 배후단지 취급화물별 비용 원단위 추정)

  • Kim, Yun-Hoe;Choung, Sang-Won;Kim, Yul-Seong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.550-556
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    • 2020
  • Over the past years, the role of ports in the global network of supply chains has becoming increasingly important, not merely as a physical location for loading and unloading goods, but also as an essential center of economic activity where additional value is added to cargo. Due to the overall growing importance of ports, each country has chosen to adopt hub growth as a primary economic strategy. Northeast Asia in particular, due to its high population density, experiences intense competition between its ports. Busan's port, as a result, has used the establishment of Distripark in order to attract high and stable trade volume, and compete more effectively with other ports in the region. This study estimates the unit cost of the logistic process for the all principal cargos handled at Busan New Port, with the findings revealing that unit cost increases gradually starting with chemical products, LME bulk goods, automobile parts, LME containers, general cargoes, and LME inland transportation goods coming in last. Future research will look more closely at all all categories of cargo handled in the Distrpark of Busan New Port, thereby enabling us to better understand the value created by the port, and how to best implement effective trade volume-attraction strategy.

Morphological and Molecular Identification of Spirometra Tapeworms (Cestoda: Diphyllobothriidae) from Carnivorous Mammals in the Serengeti and Selous Ecosystems of Tanzania

  • Ndosi, Barakaeli Abdieli;Park, Hansol;Lee, Dongmin;Choe, Seongjun;Kang, Yeseul;Nath, Tilak Chandra;Bia, Mohammed Mebarek;Eamudomkarn, Chatanun;Jeon, Hyeong-Kyu;Eom, Keeseon S.
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.58 no.6
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    • pp.653-660
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    • 2020
  • Spirometra tapeworms (Cestoda: Diphyllobothriidae) collected from carnivorous mammals in Tanzania were identified by the DNA sequence analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) and internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1), and by morphological characteristics. A total of 15 adult worms were collected from stool samples and carcasses of Panthera leo, Panthera pardus, and Crocuta crocuta in the Serengeti and Selous ecosystems of Tanzania. Three Spirometra species: S. theileri, S. ranarum and S. erinaceieuropaei were identified based on morphological features. Partial cox1 sequences (400 bp) of 10 specimens were revealed. Eight specimens showed 99.5% similarity with Spirometra theileri (MK955901), 1 specimen showed 99.5% similarity with the Korean S. erinaceieuropaei and 1 specimen had 99.5% similarity with Myanmar S. ranarum. Sequence homology estimates for the ITS1 region of S. theileri were 89.8% with S. erinaceieuropaei, 82.5% with S. decipiens, and 78.3% with S. ranarum; and 94.4% homology was observed between S. decipiens and S. ranarum. Phylogenetic analyses were performed with 4 species of Spirometra and 2 species of Dibothriocephalus (=Diphyllobothrium). By both ML and BI methods, cox1 and ITS1 gave well supported, congruent trees topology of S. erinaceieuropaei and S. theileri with S. decipiens and S. ranarum forming a clade. The Dibothriocephalus species were sisters of each other and collectively forming successive outgroups. Our findings confirmed that 3 Spirometra species (S. theileri, S. ranarum, and S. erinaceieuropaei) are distributed in the Serengeti and Selous ecosystems of Tanzania.

Economic Value Estimation of Agricultural ODA Projects Using Contingent Valuation Method : Focused on the KOPIA of Rural Development Administration (조건부가치측정법을 활용한 공적개발원조의 경제적 가치 추정: 농촌진흥청 해외농업기술개발사업(KOPIA)을 중심으로)

  • Moon, Kwang-Min
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.548-560
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    • 2021
  • This study estimates the amount of willingness to pay of the general public by applying the contingent value method to the Korea Program for International cooperation in Agricultural technology(KOPIA), a representative project of the Rural Development Administration. Prior to measuring the amount of willingness to pay for the KOPIA project, a survey of the perception of agriculture and rural areas and respondents' basic perception of public development assistance showed a positive perception of official development assistance in general. In particular, many respondents said that aid from the international community in the past contributed to Korea's economic and social development along with the importance of the international community helping the poor in underdeveloped countries. As a result of estimating the acceptance probability regression model by including the public awareness as a variable, the higher the income of the respondents and the more positive the perception of public development aid, the higher the amount of willingness to pay. The average annual payment amount per household derived from the acceptance probability regression model was estimated to be about 30,729 won.Based on the results of this analysis, several policy implications related to the public development aid policy of Korea were presented.

Evaluation of Applicability of Impulse function-based Algorithm for Modification of Ground Motion to Match Target Response Spectrum (Impulse 함수 기반 목표응답스펙트럼 맞춤형 지진파 보정 알고리즘의 적용성 평가)

  • Kim, Hyun-Kwan;Park, Duhee
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2011
  • Selection or generation of appropriate input ground motion is very important in performing a dynamic analysis. In Korea, it is a common practice to use recorded strong ground motions or artificial motions. The recorded motions show non-stationary characteristics, which is a distinct property of all earthquake motions, but have the problem of not matching the design response spectrum. The artificial motions match the design spectrum, but show stationary characteristics. This study generated ground motions that preserve the non-stationary characteristics of a real earthquake motion, but also matches the design spectrum. In the process, an impulse function-based algorithm that adjusts a given time series in time domain such that it matches the target response spectrum is used. Application of the algorithm showed that it can successfully adjust any recorded motions to match the target spectrum and also preserve the non-stationary characteristics. The modified motions are used to perform a series of nonlinear site response analyses. It is shown that the results using the adjusted motions result in more reliable estimates of ground vibration. It is thus recommended that the newly adjusted motions be used in practice instead of original recorded motions.

Height-DBH Growth Models of Major Tree Species in Chungcheong Province (충청지역 주요 수종의 수고-흉고직경 생장모델에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Yeon Ok;Lee, Young Jin;Rho, Dai Kyun;Kim, Sung Ho;Choi, Jung Kee;Lee, Woo Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2011
  • Six commonly used non-linear growth functions were fitted to individual tree height-dbh data of eight major tree species measured by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory in Chungcheong province. A total of 2,681 trees were collected from permanent sample plots across Chungcheong province. The available data for each species were randomly splitted into two sets: the majority (90%) was used to estimate model parameters and the remaining data (10%) were reserved to validate the models. The performance of the models was compared and evaluated by $R^2$, RMSE, mean difference (MD), absolute mean difference (AMD) and mean difference(MD) for diameter classes. The combined data (100%) were used for final model fitting. The results showed that these six sigmoidal models were able to capture the height-diameter relationships and fit the data equally well, but produced different asymptote estimates. Sigmoidal growth models such as Chapman-Richards, Weibull functions provided the most satisfactory height predictions. The effect of model performance on stem volume estimation was also investigated. Tree volumes of different species were computed by the Forest Resources Evaluation and Prediction Program using observed range of diameter and the predicted tree total height from the six models. For trees with diameter less than 30 cm, the six height-dbh models produced very similar results for all species, while more differentiation among the models was observed for large-sized trees.

Bootstrap Evaluation of Stem Density and Biomass Expansion Factors in Pinus rigida Stands in Korea (부트스트랩 시뮬레이션을 이용한 리기다소나무림의 줄기밀도와 바이오매스 확장계수 평가)

  • Seo, Yeon Ok;Lee, Young Jin;Pyo, Jung Kee;Kim, Rae Hyun;Son, Yeong Son;Lee, Kyeong Hak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.4
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    • pp.535-539
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to examine the bootstrap evaluation of the stem density and biomass expansion factor for Pinus rigida plantations in Korea. The stem density ($g/cm^3$) in less than 20 tree years were 0.460 while more than 21 tree years were 0.456 respectively. Biomass expansion factor of less than 20 years and more than 21 years were 2.013, 1.171, respectively. The results of 100 and 500 bootstrap iterations, stem density ($g/cm^3$) in less than 20 years were 0.456~0.462 while more than 21 years were 0.457~0.456 respectively. Biomass expansion factor of less than 20 years and more than 21 years were 1.990~2.039, 1.173~1.170, respectively. The mean differences between observed biomass factor and average parameter estimates showed within 5 percent differences. The split datasets of younger stands and old stands were compared to the results of bootstrap simulations. The stem density in less than 20 years of mean difference were 0.441~1.049% while more than 21years were 0.123~0.206% respectively. Biomass expansion factor in less than 20 years and more than 21 years were -1.102~1.340%, -0.024~0.215% respectively. Younger stand had relatively higher errors compared to the old stand. The results of stem density and biomass expansion factor using the bootstrap simulation method indicated approximately 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively.

Estimates of Genetic Parameter for Carcass Traits and Chemical Composition Analysis in Hanwoo (한우 도체형질 및 도체 일반성분 유전모수 추정)

  • Roh, Seung Hee;Kim, Jin Won;Lee, Sung Soo;Lee, Eun Joo;Park, Byoungho;Choi, Taejeong;Park, Mi Na;Lee, Jung Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.111-119
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is to check the applicability of the improved trait through the nutritional value of loin and the estimation of genetic parameter through the chemical composition analysis(moisture, crude fat, crude protein, crude ash) for Hanwoo carcass traits and loin. The data of 1kg of loin sampled and analyzed for 2,033 Hanwoo progeny test(steers) from $47^{th}$ to $57^{th}$ were used as the disclosure material used in this study. The study resulted that the heritability for carcass weight, eye muscle area, back fat thickness and marbling score which are Hanwoo carcass traits was estimated to be 0.37, 0.51, 0.44 and 0.57, respectively and the heritability for moisture, crude fat, crude protein and crude ash which are the chemical composition analysis to be 0.62, 0.64, 0.58 and 0.12, respectively. And the genetic correlation estimate between carcass weight and crude fat was 0.35, and marbling score with moisture, crude fat, crude protein and crude ash was -0.966, 0.964, -0.924 and -0.664, respectively. The genetic correlation between moisture and crude fat, crude protein was analyzed to be -0.998, 0.969 and a high genetic correlation was shown in crude fat and crude protein, -0.979. As the chemical composition analysis value showed high heritability in moisture, crude fat and crude protein, improved traits are considered to be available.

The Policy Effect of Minimum Housing Standards: Differences-in-Differences Estimation (최저주거기준 설정의 정책 효과: 이중차분법 추정)

  • Yi, Gunmin
    • 한국사회정책
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.25-59
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    • 2016
  • This paper analyses the policy effect of minimum housing standards, using the fact that Seoul set the minimum housing standards in 1998. Because the whole country except Seoul did not set the minimum housing standards in 1998, we could find this situation as a quasi-experiment. In order to identify the policy effect of minimum housing standards, I compare decreasing amounts in the number of households below the threshold between Seoul and comparison regions from 1995 to 2000, using Differences-in-Differences method. I draw estimate of one-to-one comparison, using Gyeonggi province as a comparison region, and OLS estimate, utilizing the whole nation except Seoul as a comparison region, respectively, and compare two estimates. The former and the latter suggest that the setting of Seoul minimum housing standard in 1998 account for decreasing the number of households under the minimum housing standard, by about 216,638 and 325,149, respectively. The latter is statistically significant at the 0.001 level and the former is in the 95% confidence level of the latter. Therefore we could conclude that the setting of minimum housing standards contributes significantly to achieve the policy objectives, a decrease in the number of households, which are below the threshold.