• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.44-61
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• 1999

Cost estimation has posed a significant challenge to estimators, planners, and managers in both government and military. Considerable historical evidence shows that accurate cost estimation has been difficult to achieve across a wide range of projects, including weapon systems. This paper introduces new cost estimating concept, CAIV(Cost As an Independent Variable) and a cost estimating case study using PRICE model, computer aided parametric estimating models(CAPE) for K1 tank cost estimate. CAIV concept is to set realistic but aggressive cost objectives easily in each acquisition program and to achieve cost, schedule, and performance objectives considering various managing risks with a project manager and industry teams. The Price model is one of computer aided cost estimating models and widely used in U.S. defense system analysis as a tool for CAIV. We analyze theories, inputs, outputs of the PRICE model and present a case study for K1 tank to estimate costs in requirement and concept phase, program and budgeting phase, and life cycle phase. Finally we obtain results that the Price model can be used in various phases of PPBEES depending upon available data and time.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1209-1215
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• 2009

Recently, Construction Projects are being much bigger and more complex. So the importance of Construction Planning and Management is increasing and increasing because of the Construction Projects is involved in a variety of construction-related subjects. Competitive of the Construction Industry decided Cost, Construction Duration and Productivity. But they were just focused on Cost Saving instead of Construction Duration and Productivity. However, they have to finish construction projects using minimum cost and duration with quality and function of required level for successful Construction projects. Thus, current high exchange rate and high period, it is clear to decrease construction cost and to do economic construction in huge Construction Projects and it means more advanced Construction Schedule Management needs for economic construction. But Construction Scheduling Planning, basic of Construction Schedule Management, adjusted contract period without Pre-Planning, just depending on experience and ability of Construction Engineer. Because of that, this study suggests new Duration Estimate Method using Stochastic Model in BIM Environment for advanced Construction Schedule Management. Existing Duration Estimate Methods are just modified wrong points of them or analyzed effective factors of construction schedule. However, New Duration Estimate Method is just consists of Stochastic Model and BIM Environment without existing Duration Estimate Methods. So, new method has creativity and specialty. After this research, it would be a great model in construction industry field.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.7 no.4 s.32
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• pp.91-99
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is propose an Artificial Neural Network(ANN) model for the construction estimate of the public educational facility at conceptual stage. The current method for the preliminary cost estimate of the public educational facility uses a single-parameter which is based on basic criteria such as a gross floor area. However, its accuracy is low due to the nature of the method. When the difference between the conceptual estimate and detailed estimate is huge, the project has to be modified to meet the established budget. Thus, the ANN model is developed by using multi-parameters in order to estimate the project budget cost more accurately. The result of the research shows 6.82% of the testing error rates when the developed model was tested. The error rates and the error range of the developed model are smaller than those of the general preliminary estimating model at conceptual stage. Since the proposed ANN model was trained using the detailed estimate information of the past 5 years' school construction data, it is expected to forecast the school project cost accurately.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.11 no.6
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• pp.131-142
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• 2007

The road user cost in indirect costs as well as direct costs such as the inspection/ diagnosis cost and the repair/reinforcement cost should be considered as one of the important items in the life-cycle cost-effective design and maintenance of the bridges. To estimate the road user cost, this paper formulates the road user cost as a sum of the user delay cost and the vehicle operating cost considering the detour effect. A numerical traffic simulation and a regression analysis are performed to develop a regression model due to a time delay. The proposed regression model is applied to the generation of the maintenance strategy based on the life-cycle cost and performance, and its effectiveness and applicability is investigated. The road user cost has a great influence on establishing the maintenance strategy, and the proposed regression model could be successfully utilized to estimate the road user cost of a bridge.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.6 no.3 s.21
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• pp.115-122
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• 2006

This study is aimed to get clear model for CM fee level in public construction project. For the practical use and main target, CM for fee contract only is assessed and analysed. Cost estimate by percentage of total contract sum and method based on the historical construction data have significant deficiency. An regression model and probabilistic model are suggested with 9 independent variables. In the case of limited work scope, an element based floor area model is suggested and concluded with fish-bone scheme.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.488-493
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• 2013

Accurate initial cost estimates are essential to effective management of construction projects where many decisions are made in the course of project management by referencing the estimates. In practice, the initial estimates are frequently derived from historical actual cost data, for which standard distribution-based techniques are widely applied in the construction industry to account for risk associated with the estimates. This approach assumes the same probability distribution of estimate errors for any selected estimates. This assumption, however, is not always satisfied. In order to account for the probabilistic nature of estimate errors, an alternative method for measuring the risk associated with a selected initial estimate is developed by applying the Bayesian probability approach. An application example include demonstrates how the method is implemented. A hypothesis test is conducted to reveal the robustness of the Bayesian probability model. The method is envisioned to effectively complement cost estimating methods that are currently in use by providing benefits as follows: (1) it effectively accounts for the probabilistic nature of errors in estimates; (2) it is easy to implement by using historical estimates and actual costs that are readily available in most construction companies; and (3) it minimizes subjective judgment by using quantitative data only.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.935-940
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• 2005

This paper presents the results of a statistical analysis using historical data of cost contingency. As a result, a model that predicts and estimates an accurate cost contingency value using the least squares estimation method was developed. Data such as original contract amounts, estimated contingency amounts set by maximum funding limits, and actual contingency amounts, were collected and used for model development. The more effective prediction model was selected from the two developed models based on its prediction capability. The model would help guide project managers making financial decisions when the determination of the cost contingency amounts for multiple projects is necessary.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.417-424
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• 2009

For a construction project to progress smoothly, effective cost estimation is vital, particularly in the conceptual and schematic design stages. In these early phases, despite the fact that initial estimates are highly sensitive to changes in project scope, owners require accurate forecasts which reflect their supplying information. Thus, cost estimators need effective estimation strategies. Practically, parametric cost estimates are the most commonly used method in these initial phases, which utilizes historical cost data (Karshenas 1984, Kirkham 2007). Hence, compilation of historical data regarding appropriate cost variance governing parameters is a prime requirement. However, precedent practice of data mining (data preprocessing) for denoising internal errors or abnormal values is needed before compilation. As an effort to deal with this issue, this research proposed a statistical methodology for data preprocessing and verified that data preprocessing has a positive impact on the enhancement of estimate accuracy and stability. Moreover, Statistically Preprocessed data Based Parametric (SPBP) cost models are developed based on multiple regression equations and verified their effectiveness compared with conventional cost models.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.10D no.7
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• pp.1137-1144
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• 2003

The existing Function Point method to estimate the software size has been utilized frequently with the management information system. Due to the expanding usage of the real-time and embedded system, the Full Function Point method is being proposed. However, despite many research is being carried out relation to the software size, the research on the model to estimate the development cost from the measured software size is inadequate. This paper analyzed the linear regression model and power regression model which estimate the development cost from the software FFP The power model is selected, which shows its estimation is most adequate.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.11-21
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• 2013

This study proposed cost prediction equation model by considering duration, construction, size, actual cost with the subway construction started by the actual cost system which was introduced since 2004. Costs - scale exponent n(confidence range: 0.5 to 0.7) for cost prediction of subway construction was drawn total cost(0.713), net cost(0.77) in point of the 11 subway construction data. The cost prediction equation model of the subway construction which was presented in this study is able to effectively apply to business planning, preliminary investigation, feasibility study, basic design stage to estimate the approximate cost in the future.