• Title/Summary/Keyword: Error percentage

Search Result 450, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Power Demand Estimation of Consuming Facility using Orthogonal Polynomial Regression Model (직교 다항 회귀모델을 이용한 수용설비의 소비전력 추정)

  • 고희석;이충식;지봉호;김일중
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.75-81
    • /
    • 1999
  • This paper presents in the rrethod power demand estimated of consuming facility algorithm using orthogonal polynomial regression rmdel. Estimation rmdel presented can use mathematical rrethod consists. of extrapolation and correlation rrethod, Computation tirre and capacity of presented rmdel was rmre economic than multiple regression rrodel because low-order equation can use in the high-order equation without sorre correction, and vice-versa. Therefore this rmthed can be very usefulness rmthed in the power demand estimation Fourth-order rrodel was very good armng this rrodel that was coJTJp)Sed the estimation rmdel of second, third and fourth-order. Power demand estimated result of consuming facility using correlation rrethod was good in the percentage error of about 2[%1 Also It was to verify efficiency and awroPJiation the estimated rmdel that estimation percentage error was about 1[%] in the oower demand estimated result of 1997.

  • PDF

An Experimental Study on the Sediment Transport Characteristics Through Vertical Lift Gate (연직수문의 퇴적토 배출특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Lee, Ji Haeng;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.276-284
    • /
    • 2018
  • In order to analyze sediment transport characteristics of knickpoint migration, sediment transport length, and sediment transport weight through the under-flow type vertical lift gate, the hydraulic model experiment and dimensional analysis were performed. The correlations between Froude number and sediment transport characteristics were schematized. The multiple regression formulae for sediment transport characteristics with non-dimensional parameters were suggested. The determination coefficients of multiple regression equations appeared high as 0.618 for knickpoint migration, 0.632 for sediment transport length, and 0.866 for sediment transport weight. In order to evaluate the applicability of the developed hydraulic characteristic equations, 95% prediction interval analysis was conducted on the measured and the calculated by multiple regression equations, and it was determined that NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), RMSE (root mean square), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) are appropriate, for the accuracy analysis related to the prediction on sediment transport characteristics of kickpoint migration, sediment transport length and weight.

A Study on the Standard Link-based Travel Speed Calculation System Using GPS Tracking Information (GPS 운행궤적정보를 이용한 표준링크기반 통행속도 산출 시스템 연구)

  • Song, Gil jong;Hwang, Jae Seon;Lim, Jae Jung;Jung, Eui Yong
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.142-155
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study was conducted with the aim of developing a system to collect taxi GPS probe information to prevent link defects and to improve the accuracy of the standard link-based travel speed by determining when to go into and come out the link. For this purpose, a framework and algorithm consisting of a five-step process for standard link-based map matching and individual vehicle travel speed are presented and used it to calculate the average travel speed of the service link. Two on-site surveys of Teheran and Hakdong-ro were conducted to verify the results by the methods proposed in this paper. On the basis of the overall time of the field survey, the deviation in the travel speed was 0.2 km/h and 0.6 km/h, the accuracy was 99% and 96%, and the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error) was 1% and 4% in Teheran and Hakdong-ro, respectively. These results were more accurate thand those obtained using conventional methodologies without standard links.

Numerical analysis and eccentric bearing capacity of steel reinforced recycled concrete filled circular steel tube columns

  • Ma, Hui;Liu, Fangda;Wu, Yanan;Cui, Hang;Zhao, Yanli
    • Advances in concrete construction
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.163-181
    • /
    • 2022
  • To study the mechanical properties of steel reinforced recycled concrete (SRRC) filled circular steel tube columns under eccentric compression loads, this study presents a finite element model which can simulate the eccentrically compressed columns using ABAQUS software. The analytical model was established by selecting the reasonable nonlinear analysis theory and the constitutive relationship of materials in the columns. The influences of design parameters on the eccentric compressive performance of columns were also considered in detail, such as the diameter-thickness ratio of circular steel tube, replacement percentage of recycled coarse aggregate (RCA), slenderness ratio, eccentricity, recycled aggregate concrete (RAC) strength and steel strength and so on. The deformation diagram, stress nephogram and load-displacement curves of the eccentrically compressed columns were obtained and compared with the test results of specimens. The results show that although there is a certain error between the calculation results and the test results, the error is small, which shows the rationality on the numerical model of eccentrically compressed columns. The failure of the columns is mainly due to the symmetrical bending of the columns towards the middle compression zone, which is a typical compression bending failure. The eccentric bearing capacity and deformation capacity of columns increase with the increase of the strength of steel tube and profile steel respectively. Compared with profile steel, the strength of steel tube has a greater influence on the eccentric compressive performance of columns. Improving the strength of RAC is beneficial to the eccentric bearing capacity of columns. In addition, the eccentric bearing capacity and deformation capacity of columns decrease with the increase of replacement percentage of RCA. The section form of profile steel has little influence on the eccentric compression performance of columns. On this basis, the calculation formulas on the nominal eccentric bearing capacity of columns were also put forward and the results calculated by the proposed formulas are in good agreement with the test values.

Statistical Optimization of Biosurfactant Production from Aspergillus niger SA1 Fermentation Process and Mathematical Modeling

  • Mansour A. Al-hazmi;Tarek A. A. Moussa;Nuha M. Alhazmi
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
    • /
    • v.33 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1238-1249
    • /
    • 2023
  • In this study, we sought to investigate the production and optimization of biosurfactants by soil fungi isolated from petroleum oil-contaminated soil in Saudi Arabia. Forty-four fungal isolates were isolated from ten petroleum oil-contaminated soil samples. All isolates were identified using the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region, and biosurfactant screening showed that thirty-nine of the isolates were positive. Aspergillus niger SA1 was the highest biosurfactant producer, demonstrating surface tension, drop collapsing, oil displacement, and an emulsification index (E24) of 35.8 mN/m, 0.55 cm, 6.7 cm, and 70%, respectively. This isolate was therefore selected for biosurfactant optimization using the Fit Group model. The biosurfactant yield was increased 1.22 times higher than in the nonoptimized medium (8.02 g/l) under conditions of pH 6, temperature 35℃, waste frying oil (5.5 g), agitation rate of 200 rpm, and an incubation period of 7 days. Model significance and fitness analysis had an RMSE score of 0.852 and a p-value of 0.0016. The biosurfactant activities were surface tension (35.8 mN/m), drop collapsing (0.7 cm), oil displacement (4.5 cm), and E24 (65.0%). The time course of biosurfactant production was a growth-associated phase. The main outputs of the mathematical model for biomass yield were Yx/s (1.18), and µmax (0.0306) for biosurfactant yield was Yp/s (1.87) and Yp/x (2.51); for waste frying oil consumption the So was 55 g/l, and Ke was 2.56. To verify the model's accuracy, percentage errors between biomass and biosurfactant yields were determined by experimental work and calculated using model equations. The average error of biomass yield was 2.68%, and the average error percentage of biosurfactant yield was 3.39%.

Deep Neural Network Based Prediction of Daily Spectators for Korean Baseball League : Focused on Gwangju-KIA Champions Field (Deep Neural Network 기반 프로야구 일일 관중 수 예측 : 광주-기아 챔피언스 필드를 중심으로)

  • Park, Dong Ju;Kim, Byeong Woo;Jeong, Young-Seon;Ahn, Chang Wook
    • Smart Media Journal
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.16-23
    • /
    • 2018
  • In this paper, we used the Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict the number of daily spectators of Gwangju - KIA Champions Field in order to provide marketing data for the team and related businesses and for managing the inventories of the facilities in the stadium. In this study, the DNN model, which is based on an artificial neural network (ANN), was used, and four kinds of DNN model were designed along with dropout and batch normalization model to prevent overfitting. Each of four models consists of 10 DNNs, and we added extra models with ensemble model. Each model was evaluated by Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The learning data from the model randomly selected 80% of the collected data from 2008 to 2017, and the other 20% were used as test data. With the result of 100 data selection, model configuration, and learning and prediction, we concluded that the predictive power of the DNN model with ensemble model is the best, and RMSE and MAPE are 15.17% and 14.34% higher, correspondingly, than the prediction value of the multiple linear regression model.

Wind power forecasting based on time series and machine learning models (시계열 모형과 기계학습 모형을 이용한 풍력 발전량 예측 연구)

  • Park, Sujin;Lee, Jin-Young;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.723-734
    • /
    • 2021
  • Wind energy is one of the rapidly developing renewable energies which is being developed and invested in response to climate change. As renewable energy policies and power plant installations are promoted, the supply of wind power in Korea is gradually expanding and attempts to accurately predict demand are expanding. In this paper, the ARIMA and ARIMAX models which are Time series techniques and the SVR, Random Forest and XGBoost models which are machine learning models were compared and analyzed to predict wind power generation in the Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk regions. Mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as indicators to compare the predicted results of the model. After subtracting the hourly raw data from January 1, 2018 to October 24, 2020, the model was trained to predict wind power generation for 168 hours from October 25, 2020 to October 31, 2020. As a result of comparing the predictive power of the models, the Random Forest and XGBoost models showed the best performance in the order of Jeonnam and Gyeongbuk. In future research, we will try not only machine learning models but also forecasting wind power generation based on data mining techniques that have been actively researched recently.

Time series analysis for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases: HAR-TP-T model approach (한국 COVID-19 확진자 수에 대한 시계열 분석: HAR-TP-T 모형 접근법)

  • Yu, SeongMin;Hwang, Eunju
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.239-254
    • /
    • 2021
  • This paper studies time series analysis with estimation and forecasting for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, based on the approach of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with two-piece t (TP-T) distributed errors. We consider HAR-TP-T time series models and suggest a step-by-step method to estimate HAR coefficients as well as TP-T distribution parameters. In our proposed step-by-step estimation, the ordinary least squares method is utilized to estimate the HAR coefficients while the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is adopted to estimate the TP-T error parameters. A simulation study on the step-by-step method is conducted and it shows a good performance. For the empirical analysis on the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, estimates in the HAR-TP-T models of order p = 2, 3, 4 are computed along with a couple of selected lags, which include the optimal lags chosen by minimizing the mean squares errors of the models. The estimation results by our proposed method and the solely MLE are compared with some criteria rules. Our proposed step-by-step method outperforms the MLE in two aspects: mean squares error of the HAR model and mean squares difference between the TP-T residuals and their densities. Moreover, forecasting for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases is discussed with the optimally selected HAR-TP-T model. Mean absolute percentage error of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts is evaluated as 0.0953% in the proposed model. We conclude that our proposed HAR-TP-T time series model with optimally selected lags and its step-by-step estimation provide an accurate forecasting performance for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.

Pig Image Learning for Improving Weight Measurement Accuracy

  • Jonghee Lee;Seonwoo Park;Gipou Nam;Jinwook Jang;Sungho Lee
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.29 no.7
    • /
    • pp.33-40
    • /
    • 2024
  • The live weight of livestock is important information for managing their health and housing conditions, and it can be used to determine the optimal amount of feed and the timing of shipment. In general, it takes a lot of human resources and time to weigh livestock using a scale, and it is not easy to measure each stage of growth, which prevents effective breeding methods such as feeding amount control from being applied. In this paper, we aims to improve the accuracy of weight measurement of piglets, weaned pigs, nursery pigs, and fattening pigs by collecting, analyzing, learning, and predicting video and image data in animal husbandry and pig farming. For this purpose, we trained using Pytorch, YOLO(you only look once) 5 model, and Scikit Learn library and found that the actual and prediction graphs showed a similar flow with a of RMSE(root mean square error) 0.4%. and MAPE(mean absolute percentage error) 0.2%. It can be utilized in the mammalian pig, weaning pig, nursery pig, and fattening pig sections. The accuracy is expected to be continuously improved based on variously trained image and video data and actual measured weight data. It is expected that efficient breeding management will be possible by predicting the production of pigs by part through video reading in the future.

Development of Nth Highest Hourly Traffic Volume Forecasting Models (고속국도에서의 연평균일교통량에 따른 N번째 고순위 시간교통량 추정모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Ju-Sam
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.13-20
    • /
    • 2007
  • For calculating the number of lane, it is essential to gain the 30th or 100th highest design hourly volume. The design hourly volume obtained from AADT multiplied by design hour factor. In this paper, we developed the regression models fur estimating the 30th highest hour volume and 100th highest hour volume as defined by AADT 50,000 criterion based on the data obtained the 34 monitoring sites in highway. By comparing the performance of the proposed models and conventional models using MAPE, the proposed model for 30th highest design hourly volume reduced the estimator error of 11.83% than that of conventional methods for less than AADT 50,000 and decreased estimation error of 22.17% than that of conventional method for more than AADT 50,000. Moreover, the proposed model for 100th highest design hourly volume reduced the estimator error of 8.16% than that of conventional methods for less than AADT 50,000 and decreased estimation error of 15.25% than that of conventional method for more than AADT 50,000.

  • PDF