• Title/Summary/Keyword: Error Budget

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Characteristics of sediment transportation and sediment budget in Nakdong River under weir operations (보 운영에 따른 낙동강 유사이송특성 및 유사수지 분석)

  • Son, Kwang Ik;Jang, Chang-Lae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.587-595
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    • 2017
  • Hydraulic characteristics affecting sediment transport capacity due to the weir operations were investigated and developed sediment rating curves for four gaging stations (Nakdong, Gumi, Waegwan, and Jindong) in Nakdong River. Analysis found that the sediment transportaion capability had been decreased and it could be proved from the field measurement records in 2013. Applicabilities of nine sediment transport prediction techniques, which are imbeded in GUIDE program, were examined and adopted for the four gaging stations. Analysis of sediment balance for Nakdong River, including 9 major tributaries, had been carried out with pseudo 2-D numerical model and found that: 1) sedimentation phenomena will be prevailed along the Nakdong River. 2) Engelund-Hansen technique shows the least error in estimation of sediment balance. 3) Engelund-Hansen technique most appropriately describes the sediment characteristics for four gaging stations. 4) Estimated error from the sediment balance for Nakdong River was smaller than the error caused by the estimation of sediment incomming from 9 tributries. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of predicting the sediment incomming from the tributaties for better sediment balance analysis.

Parameter Estimation of Coastal Water Quality Model Using the Inverse Theory (역산이론을 이용한 연안 수질모형의 매개변수 추정)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Cho, Bum-Jun;Jeong, Shin-Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.149-157
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    • 2005
  • Typical water quality (WQ) parameters defined in the governing equation of the WQ model are the pollutant loads from atmosphere and watersheds, pollutant release rates from sediment, diffusion coefficient and reaction coefficient etc. The direct measurement of these parameters is very difficult as well as requires high cost. In this study, the pollutant budget equation including these parameters was used to construct the linear simultaneous equations. Based on these equations, the inverse problems were constructed and WQ parameter estimation method minimizing the sum of squared errors between the computed and observed amounts of the mass changes was suggested. WQ parameters, i.e., the atmospheric pollutant loads, sediment release rates, diffusion coefficients and reaction coefficient, were estimated using .this method by utilizing the vertical concentration profile data which has been observed in Cheonsu Bay and Ulsan Port. Values of the estimated parameters show a large temporal variation. However, this technique is persuasive in that the RHS (root mean square) error was less than $5.0\%$ of the observed value ranges and the agreement index was greater than 0.95.

Comparison of Cost Performance for Delivery Methods on Public Construction Projects (공공 건설공사 발주방식에 따른 비용성과 비교연구)

  • Lee, Yoo Sub;Kang, Tai Kyung;Shin, Eun Young;Park, Wonyoung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.2575-2582
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    • 2013
  • In the delivery systems for public construction works, design-build methods such as turn-key and alternative have contributed to improving the quality of structures and developing the construction technology. However, it is pointed out that construction based on a design-build method is likely to waste a budget due to its higher contract price than construction based on a design-bid-build method. Other issues such as contract monopoly, bid rigging and deliberation irregularity in design-build. Since there are not much works have been accomplished to comparatively analyze the actual performance and effect based on delivery methods, discussing and judging the performance and effect of each deliver method with limited information could lead to an error. Thus, this study by extensively investigates the actual project cost data, ranging from contract price to the construction cost of the public construction works and comparatively analyzed the characteristics of each delivery method about cost structure and fluctuation trend. This work is expected to assist stake-holders in properly understanding delivery systems for public construction works and promoting their efficient management.

Developing an Estimation Model for Safety Rating of Road Bridges Using Rule-based Classification Method (규칙 기반 분류 기법을 활용한 도로교량 안전등급 추정 모델 개발)

  • Chung, Sehwan;Lim, Soram;Chi, Seokho
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2016
  • Road bridges are deteriorating gradually, and it is forecasted that the number of road bridges aging over 30 years will increase by more than 3 times of the current number. To maintain road bridges in a safe condition, current safety conditions of the bridges must be estimated for repair or reinforcement. However, budget and professional manpower required to perform in-depth inspections of road bridges are limited. This study proposes an estimation model for safety rating of road bridges by analyzing the data from Facility Management System (FMS) and Yearbook of Road Bridges and Tunnel. These data include basic specifications, year of completion, traffic, safety rating, and others. The distribution of safety rating was imbalanced, indicating 91% of road bridges have safety ratings of A or B. To improve classification performance, five safety ratings were integrated into two classes of G (good, A and B) and P (poor ratings under C). This rearrangement was set because facilities with ratings under C are required to be repaired or reinforced to recover their original functionality. 70% of the original data were used as training data, while the other 30% were used for validation. Data of class P in the training data were oversampled by 3 times, and Repeated Incremental Pruning to Produce Error Reduction (RIPPER) algorithm was used to develop the estimation model. The results of estimation model showed overall accuracy of 84.8%, true positive rate of 67.3%, and 29 classification rule. Year of completion was identified as the most critical factor on affecting lower safety ratings of bridges.

Evaluating non-coincident Cadastral Parcel Using Google Earth Web (Google Earth Web을 활용한 지목 불부합 필지 평가)

  • Kim, Dae-Ho;Um, Jung-Sup
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2010
  • This study investigated the cadastral non-coincidence between real land using and cadastral book using Google Earth Web for difficult area to access that is more efficient method compared with field survey for saving time and money. An reading error has occurred eight parcels about dry field and paddy field but this method is more powerful in case of a danger area of steep, unregistered cemeteries of cadastral book using Google Earth Web of image interpretation that method takes 1 day, the accuracy is 96% and improved 20% more than field survey takes 5 days by 40 parcels. It's possible to reduce the manpower, time and budget could be minimized. In particular, it is need to land alteration of forests and fields category that finds 47 locations a burial ground of non register cadastre book. Google Earth Web method is enabling easy visual analysis of the future land administration of local governments to improving the reliability of temporal and economic costs can be very useful to reduce.

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Calibration of the WASP4 Model Applied to Lake Paldang (WASP4 모형의 매개변수 추정 - 팔당호(八堂湖)를 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Hong Yeon;Jun, Kyung Soo;Lee, Kil Seong;Han, Kwang Suk
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.177-188
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    • 1993
  • Model parameters of the WASP4 applied to Lake Paldang were estimated. The methodology is based on grouping water quality constituents and relevant parameters and successively estimating each group of parameters by a trial-and-error procedure. Chlorophyll a, nitrogen cycles, phosphorus cycles, BOD and DO were simulated at the complexity level 4. A water budget analysis using the monthly records of reservoir inflows and outflows in 1989 and 1990 was made to determine seasonally-averaged flowrates at model boundaries. Estimated flowrates were used, together with the seasonal average of water quality measurements in 1989 and 1990 for the calibration and verification, respectively, of the model. Grouping water quality constituents and associated parameters proved to be efficient in estimating a number of model parameters. From the results of model calibration and verification, it was found that quantitative evaluations of nonpoint and benthic sources of organic matters are essential. Benthic sources near the entrance of the Kyeongancheon were the most significant.

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An Efficiency Assessment for Reflectance Normalization of RapidEye Employing BRD Components of Wide-Swath satellite

  • Kim, Sang-Il;Han, Kyung-Soo;Yeom, Jong-Min
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.303-314
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    • 2011
  • Surface albedo is an important parameter of the surface energy budget, and its accurate quantification is of major interest to the global climate modeling community. Therefore, in this paper, we consider the direct solution of kernel based bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models for retrieval of normalized reflectance of high resolution satellite. The BRD effects can be seen in satellite data having a wide swath such as SPOT/VGT (VEGETATION) have sufficient angular sampling, but high resolution satellites are impossible to obtain sufficient angular sampling over a pixel during short period because of their narrow swath scanning when applying semi-empirical model. This gives a difficulty to run BRDF model inferring the reflectance normalization of high resolution satellites. The principal purpose of the study is to estimate normalized reflectance of high resolution satellite (RapidEye) through BRDF components from SPOT/VGT. We use semi-empirical BRDF model to estimated BRDF components from SPOT/VGT and reflectance normalization of RapidEye. This study used SPOT/VGT satellite data acquired in the S1 (daily) data, and within this study is the multispectral sensor RapidEye. Isotropic value such as the normalized reflectance was closely related to the BRDF parameters and the kernels. Also, we show scatter plot of the SPOT/VGT and RapidEye isotropic value relationship. The linear relationship between the two linear regression analysis is performed by using the parameters of SPOTNGT like as isotropic value, geometric value and volumetric scattering value, and the kernel values of RapidEye like as geometric and volumetric scattering kernel Because BRDF parameters are difficult to directly calculate from high resolution satellites, we use to BRDF parameter of SPOT/VGT. Also, we make a decision of weighting for geometric value, volumetric scattering value and error through regression models. As a result, the weighting through linear regression analysis produced good agreement. For all sites, the SPOT/VGT isotropic and RapidEye isotropic values had the high correlation (RMSE, bias), and generally are very consistent.

Improvement and Application of Total Maximum Daily Load Management System of Korea: 2. Determination of Margin of Safety and Allocation of Pollutant Loads (우리나라 오염총량관리제도의 적용 및 개선: 2. 안전율 산정 및 삭감부하량 할당)

  • Kim, Kyung-Tae;Chung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil Seong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.168-176
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    • 2010
  • This study proposes the improvement of the present Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) management system of MOE (Ministry of Environment). The margin of safety (MOS) is calculated by a method using standard error and a method using variability and uncertainty. The allocation of pollutant loads are calculated using three methods, equal load reduction method, equal percent removal method and method using equity standards. This study applied the improved TMDL management system to the Anyangcheon watershed. Since MOS varies from 12% to 44% due to the high variability of measured and simulated data, it must not be ignored in the TMDL. The method using equity standards is the most proper in this application since the others produced unrealistic allocations. Area, runoff, water use quantity, population and budget are considered for equity standards. This study shows that this allocation method can be also applicable for the administrative units as well as the sub-watersheds. Finally, Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) with the allocated pollutant load was used to confirm whether it satisfy the water quality standard or not. This study will be helpful to improve the MOS and allocation system TMDL in the future.

On the Importance of Consolidation and Fluidization in Numerical Modelling of Muds and Pollutants Transports (니토 및 오염물질 이동의 수치모의에 미치는 퇴적층의 압밀과 유동화의 중요성에 관하여)

  • Jae Youll Jin;Ki Dai Yum;Jin Soon Park
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.43-55
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    • 1997
  • Existing theories and experimental results on mud bed consolidation, fluidization and erosion are briefly reviewed. The importance of the history of bed shear strength profile which experiences periodic and random consolidation and fluidization is qualitatively discussed by reanalyzing a field data set in Youngkwang area of Korea. According to the results of existing laboratory experiments and the reanalyzing, the numerical modelling of mud or pollutant transport without considering consolidation and fluidization may cause the time lag between the hydrodynamic forcing and the increment of sediment and bed-originated pollutant concentrations in water column. The time lag can derive serious error in the transport direction, consequently in the budget of a heavy-concentrated bottom-originated substance, especially in macrotidal environments with relatively high wave energy.

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Naval Vessel Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Using Data Mining (데이터마이닝을 활용한 해군함정 수리부속 수요예측)

  • Yoon, Hyunmin;Kim, Suhwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.253-259
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    • 2017
  • Recent development in science and technology has modernized the weapon system of ROKN (Republic Of Korea Navy). Although the cost of purchasing, operating and maintaining the cutting-edge weapon systems has been increased significantly, the national defense expenditure is under a tight budget constraint. In order to maintain the availability of ships with low cost, we need accurate demand forecasts for spare parts. We attempted to find consumption pattern using data mining techniques. First we gathered a large amount of component consumption data through the DELIIS (Defense Logistics Intergrated Information System). Through data collection, we obtained 42 variables such as annual consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity, order-relase ratio. The objective variable is the quantity of spare parts purchased in f-year and MSE (Mean squared error) is used as the predictive power measure. To construct an optimal demand forecasting model, regression tree model, randomforest model, neural network model, and linear regression model were used as data mining techniques. The open software R was used for model construction. The results show that randomforest model is the best value of MSE. The important variables utilized in all models are consumption quantity, ASL selection quantity and order-release rate. The data related to the demand forecast of spare parts in the DELIIS was collected and the demand for the spare parts was estimated by using the data mining technique. Our approach shows improved performance in demand forecasting with higher accuracy then previous work. Also data mining can be used to identify variables that are related to demand forecasting.