• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1989.07a
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• pp.207-210
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• 1989

In probabilistic production costing simulation, cumulant method is widely used. But this method have some limitations in some cases. To overcome these serious drawbacks, MONA(Mixture of Normals Approximation) method was proposed. The MONA method uses multiple normals to represent the Equivalent Load Duration Curve. In this paper we investigate the MONA's characteristics by comparing other methods and derive the efficient formulae for MONA. Also, we propose the fundamental algorithm for Mixture of Cumulants Approximation(MOCA) which is the general case of MONA.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1998.11a
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• pp.239-241
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• 1998

The probabilistic production simulation of power system generally has been used to formulate a reasonable power production plan or generation planning. It integrates the convolution process of a generating unit's random outage(FOR) with equivalent load duration curve(ELDC), and provides the reliability indices of power system. This paper presents the reliability characteristics of power system reflected on demand side management and proposes the modified ELDC representation technique due to the high-efficient end-use diffusion among the customers. Load reductions are simulated from the multi-state deconvolution process with the saved capacity of end-use. Case study shows the computed reliability from the power system production simulation incorporated with DSM planning scheme.