• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제40권2호
• /
• pp.163-171
• /
• 2014

Epidemic models are used to analyze the spreading of epidemic diseases, estimate public health needs, and assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Modeling scope of an epidemic model ranges from the regional scale to national and global scale. Most of the epidemic models developed in Korea are at the national scale using the equation-based model. While these models are useful for designing and evaluating national public health policies, they do not provide sufficient details. As an alternative, individual-based models at the regional scale are often used to describe disease spreading, so that various mitigation strategies can be designed and tested. This paper presents an individual-based epidemic spreading model at regional scale. This model incorporates 2005 census data to build the synthetic population in the model representing Daejeon in 2005. The model's capability is demonstrated by an example where we assess the effectiveness of several mitigation strategies using the model.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
• /
• 제16권6호
• /
• pp.656-666
• /
• 2014

In delay tolerant networks (DTNs), delay is inevitable; thus, making better use of buffer space to maximize the packet delivery rate is more important than delay reduction. In DTNs, epidemic routing is a well-known routing protocol. However, epidemic routing is very sensitive to buffer size. Once the buffer size in nodes is insufficient, the performance of epidemic routing will be drastically reduced. In this paper, we propose a buffer scheme to optimize the performance of epidemic routing on the basis of the Lagrangian and dual problem models. By using the proposed optimal buffer scheme, the packet delivery rate in epidemic routing is considerably improved. Our simulation results show that epidemic routing with the proposed optimal buffer scheme outperforms the original epidemic routing in terms of packet delivery rate and average end-to-end delay. It is worth noting that the improved epidemic routing needs much less buffer size compared to that of the original epidemic routing for ensuring the same packet delivery rate. In particular, even though the buffer size is very small (e.g., 50), the packet delivery rate in epidemic routing with the proposed optimal buffer scheme is still 95.8%, which can satisfy general communication demand.

• 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.295-304
• /
• 1994

This paper describes some preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities. In conjunction with a survey of the available epidemiological data on HIV infection and the incidence of AIDS, the model is used to assess how various processes influence the course of the initial epidemic following the introduction of the virus. Models of the early stages of viral spread provide crude methods for estimating the basic reproductive rate of the virus, given a knowledge of the incubation period of AIDS and the initial doubling time of the epidemic. More complex models are formulated to assess the influence of heterogeneity in sexual activity. This latter factor is shown to have a major effect on the predicted pattern of the epidemic.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
• /
• 제31권1호
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2024

Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
• /
• 제51권6호
• /
• pp.326-328
• /
• 2018

As over 1000 new cases of HIV/AIDS occur in Korea annually, preventive health programs against HIV/AIDS are urgently needed. Since phylodynamic studies have been suggested as a way to understand how infectious diseases are transmitted and evolve, phylodynamic inferences can be a useful tool for HIV/AIDS research. In particular, phylodynamic models are helpful for dating the origins of an epidemic and estimating its basic reproduction number. Thus, the introduction of phylodynamics would be a highly valuable step towards controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Korea.

• 무역학회지
• /
• 제47권3호
• /
• pp.37-55
• /
• 2022

This paper takes the factors influencing consumers' purchase of organic agricultural products before and after the COVID-19 epidemic as the starting point, decomposes Chinese consumers' purchase behavior of organic agricultural products into questionnaire surveys before and after the COVID-19 epidemic with the help of the theory of planned behavior, and builds structural equation regression models to compare and analyze them respectively. The study investigates whether this change has any impact on consumers' purchasing behavior of organic agricultural products, and proposes rationalized countermeasures from different perspectives based on the results of the study. To this end, this study collected 219 valid questionnaires by combing through domestic and international literature and referring to scholars' mature scales for measurement. The results showed that consumers' attitudes, subjective norms and perceptual behavioral control of organic agricultural products before and after the COVID-19 epidemic had a significant positive effect on consumers' willingness to purchase; however, it can be seen that the intervention of the COVID-19 epidemic event has significantly improved consumers' attitudes, subjective norms and perceptual behavioral control of organic agricultural products.

• 한국수학교육학회지시리즈B:순수및응용수학
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.203-220
• /
• 2023

A new modification of the SIS epidemic model incorporating the adaptive host behavior is proposed. Unlike the common situation in most epidemic models, this system has two disease-free equilibrium points, and we were able to prove that as the basic reproduction number approaches the threshold of 1, these two points merge and a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension three occurs. The occurrence of this bifurcation is a sign of the complexity of the dynamics of the system near the value 1 of basic reproduction number. Both local and global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium point are studied.

• 디지털융복합연구
• /
• 제16권7호
• /
• pp.259-265
• /
• 2018

수학모형의 한 유형인 구획모형은 전염병의 확산처럼 순차적인 이벤트나 프로세스로 구성된 동적 시스템의 변화를 분석하는 데 폭넓게 활용되어 왔다. 구획모형은 상자와 화살표로 표현되는 구획과 구획 간 관계로 구성된다. 이러한 원리는 stock과 flow로 구성되는 시스템다이내믹스(SD)의 모델링 원리와 비슷하다. 두 모형 모두 미분방정식을 이용하여 구조화된다. 이와 같은 두 모형 간 변환 가능성을 이용하여 국내 MERS 전염의 특징을 분석한 최근 연구의 SEIR 참조모형을 SD 관점에서 해석 변환한다. 변환된 SEIR 모형(Model 2)은 참조모형(Model 1)의 재현 결과와 비교하여 동일한 시뮬레이션 결과를 나타내었다. 본 연구는 전염병 구획모형의 구축에 도식과 미분방정식을 이용한 SD 방법론의 활용에 대한 인사이트를 제공하며, 변환된 SD 모형은 다른 전염병을 위한 참조모형으로 활용 가능하다.

• 대한수학회보
• /
• 제49권3호
• /
• pp.517-528
• /
• 2012

This paper is estimating the domain of attraction for a class of susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamic models by using sum of squares optimization. First, the stability is analyzed for the equilibriums of SEIR model, and the domain of attraction in the endemic equilibrium is estimated by using sum of squares optimization. Finally, a numerical example is examined.

• 대한수학회지
• /
• 제58권1호
• /
• pp.45-67
• /
• 2021

In this paper, a mathematical dynamical system involving both deterministic (with or without delay) and stochastic "SIR" epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate in a continuous reactor is considered. A profound qualitative analysis is given. It is proved that, for both deterministic models, if ��d > 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if ��d ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Concerning the stochastic model, the Feller's test combined with the canonical probability method were used in order to conclude on the long-time dynamics of the stochastic model. The results improve and extend the results obtained for the deterministic model in its both forms. It is proved that if ��s > 1, the disease is stochastically permanent with full probability. However, if ��s ≤ 1, then the disease dies out with full probability. Finally, some numerical tests are done in order to validate the obtained results.