• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.163-171
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• 2014

Epidemic models are used to analyze the spreading of epidemic diseases, estimate public health needs, and assess the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Modeling scope of an epidemic model ranges from the regional scale to national and global scale. Most of the epidemic models developed in Korea are at the national scale using the equation-based model. While these models are useful for designing and evaluating national public health policies, they do not provide sufficient details. As an alternative, individual-based models at the regional scale are often used to describe disease spreading, so that various mitigation strategies can be designed and tested. This paper presents an individual-based epidemic spreading model at regional scale. This model incorporates 2005 census data to build the synthetic population in the model representing Daejeon in 2005. The model's capability is demonstrated by an example where we assess the effectiveness of several mitigation strategies using the model.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.656-666
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• 2014

In delay tolerant networks (DTNs), delay is inevitable; thus, making better use of buffer space to maximize the packet delivery rate is more important than delay reduction. In DTNs, epidemic routing is a well-known routing protocol. However, epidemic routing is very sensitive to buffer size. Once the buffer size in nodes is insufficient, the performance of epidemic routing will be drastically reduced. In this paper, we propose a buffer scheme to optimize the performance of epidemic routing on the basis of the Lagrangian and dual problem models. By using the proposed optimal buffer scheme, the packet delivery rate in epidemic routing is considerably improved. Our simulation results show that epidemic routing with the proposed optimal buffer scheme outperforms the original epidemic routing in terms of packet delivery rate and average end-to-end delay. It is worth noting that the improved epidemic routing needs much less buffer size compared to that of the original epidemic routing for ensuring the same packet delivery rate. In particular, even though the buffer size is very small (e.g., 50), the packet delivery rate in epidemic routing with the proposed optimal buffer scheme is still 95.8%, which can satisfy general communication demand.

• Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.295-304
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• 1994

This paper describes some preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities. In conjunction with a survey of the available epidemiological data on HIV infection and the incidence of AIDS, the model is used to assess how various processes influence the course of the initial epidemic following the introduction of the virus. Models of the early stages of viral spread provide crude methods for estimating the basic reproductive rate of the virus, given a knowledge of the incubation period of AIDS and the initial doubling time of the epidemic. More complex models are formulated to assess the influence of heterogeneity in sexual activity. This latter factor is shown to have a major effect on the predicted pattern of the epidemic.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-9
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• 2024

Predicting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge due to the complexity of the disease and its evolving nature. This study presents an integrated approach using the classic SIR model for infectious diseases, enhanced by the chemical master equation (CME). We employ a Monte Carlo method (SSA) to solve the model, revealing unique aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. The study, a first of its kind in Korea, adopts a step-by-step and complementary approach to model prediction. It starts by analyzing the epidemic's trajectory at local government levels using both basic and stochastic SIR models. These models capture the impact of public health policies on the epidemic's dynamics. Further, the study extends its scope from a single-infected individual model to a more comprehensive model that accounts for multiple infections using the jump SIR prediction model. The practical application of this approach involves applying these layered and complementary SIR models to forecast the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in small to medium-sized local governments, particularly in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. The results from these models are then compared and analyzed.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.326-328
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• 2018

As over 1000 new cases of HIV/AIDS occur in Korea annually, preventive health programs against HIV/AIDS are urgently needed. Since phylodynamic studies have been suggested as a way to understand how infectious diseases are transmitted and evolve, phylodynamic inferences can be a useful tool for HIV/AIDS research. In particular, phylodynamic models are helpful for dating the origins of an epidemic and estimating its basic reproduction number. Thus, the introduction of phylodynamics would be a highly valuable step towards controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Korea.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.37-55
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• 2022

This paper takes the factors influencing consumers' purchase of organic agricultural products before and after the COVID-19 epidemic as the starting point, decomposes Chinese consumers' purchase behavior of organic agricultural products into questionnaire surveys before and after the COVID-19 epidemic with the help of the theory of planned behavior, and builds structural equation regression models to compare and analyze them respectively. The study investigates whether this change has any impact on consumers' purchasing behavior of organic agricultural products, and proposes rationalized countermeasures from different perspectives based on the results of the study. To this end, this study collected 219 valid questionnaires by combing through domestic and international literature and referring to scholars' mature scales for measurement. The results showed that consumers' attitudes, subjective norms and perceptual behavioral control of organic agricultural products before and after the COVID-19 epidemic had a significant positive effect on consumers' willingness to purchase; however, it can be seen that the intervention of the COVID-19 epidemic event has significantly improved consumers' attitudes, subjective norms and perceptual behavioral control of organic agricultural products.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.203-220
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• 2023

A new modification of the SIS epidemic model incorporating the adaptive host behavior is proposed. Unlike the common situation in most epidemic models, this system has two disease-free equilibrium points, and we were able to prove that as the basic reproduction number approaches the threshold of 1, these two points merge and a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension three occurs. The occurrence of this bifurcation is a sign of the complexity of the dynamics of the system near the value 1 of basic reproduction number. Both local and global stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium point are studied.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.259-265
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• 2018

Compartment models, a type of mathematical model, have been widely applied to characterize the changes in a dynamic system with sequential events or processes, such as the spread of an epidemic disease. A compartment model comprises compartments, and the relations between compartments are depicted as boxes and arrows. This principle is similar to that of the system dynamics (SD) approach to constructing a simulation model with stocks and flows. In addition, both models are structured using differential equations. With this mutual and translatable principle, this study, in terms of SD, translates a reference SEIR model, which was developed in a recent study to characterize the transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in South Korea. Compared to the replicated result of the reference SEIR model (Model 1), the translated SEIR model (Model 2) demonstrates the same simulation result (error=0). The results of this study provide insight into the application of SD relative to constructing an epidemic compartment model using schematization and differential equations. The translated SD artifact can be used as a reference model for other epidemic diseases.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.517-528
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• 2012

This paper is estimating the domain of attraction for a class of susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic dynamic models by using sum of squares optimization. First, the stability is analyzed for the equilibriums of SEIR model, and the domain of attraction in the endemic equilibrium is estimated by using sum of squares optimization. Finally, a numerical example is examined.

• Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.58 no.1
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• pp.45-67
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• 2021

In this paper, a mathematical dynamical system involving both deterministic (with or without delay) and stochastic "SIR" epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate in a continuous reactor is considered. A profound qualitative analysis is given. It is proved that, for both deterministic models, if ��d > 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if ��d ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Concerning the stochastic model, the Feller's test combined with the canonical probability method were used in order to conclude on the long-time dynamics of the stochastic model. The results improve and extend the results obtained for the deterministic model in its both forms. It is proved that if ��s > 1, the disease is stochastically permanent with full probability. However, if ��s ≤ 1, then the disease dies out with full probability. Finally, some numerical tests are done in order to validate the obtained results.