• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemic Model

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AN SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL ON A DISPERSIVE POPULATION

  • Ghosh, Asit K.;Chattopadhyay, J.;Tapaswi, P.K.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.925-940
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    • 2000
  • The spatial spread of a disease in an SIRS epidemic model with immunity imparted by subclinical infection on a population has been considered. The incidence rate of infection and the rate of immunization are both of nonlinear type. The dynamics of the infectious disease and its endemicity in local and global sense have been investigated.

Service Model Standardization of Risk Mitigation on Livestock Pandemic based on Network (네트워크 기반에서 가축 유행병 위기 완화를 위한 개념 모델 표준화)

  • Kim, Dong Il;Chung, Hee Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.10a
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    • pp.12-14
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present a standard conceptual model of livestock epidemic service in the field of smart livestock, which is emerging as an important issue in smart agriculture. By using the network to identify the global livestock epidemic disease risk and provide relevant models to service users, it is expected that it will actually provide economic benefits to livestock owners and ultimately help the national livestock industry economy. In order to apply the standard livestock epidemic service standard model and the livestock infectious disease crisis mitigation standard model sharing method that is presented in conjunction with ICT to the standards in the domestic and international agricultural and livestock industries in the future, continuous research will be carried out.

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A transmission distribution estimation for real time Ebola virus disease epidemic model (실시간 에볼라 바이러스 전염병 모형의 전염확률분포추정)

  • Choi, Ilsu;Rhee, Sung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2015
  • The epidemic is seemed to be extremely difficult for accurate predictions. The new models have been suggested that show quite different results. The basic reproductive number of epidemic for consequent time intervals are estimated based on stochastic processes. In this paper, we proposed a transmission distribution estimation for Ebola virus disease epidemic model. This estimation can be easier to obtain in real time which is useful for informing an appropriate public health response to the outbreak. Finally, we implement our proposed method with data from Guinea Ebola disease outbreak.

A Preliminary Study of the Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection and AIDS (HIV 감염과 AIDS의 전파 특성에 관한 기초적 연구)

  • 정형환;이광우
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 1994
  • This paper describes some preliminary attempts to formulate simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection in homosexual communities. In conjunction with a survey of the available epidemiological data on HIV infection and the incidence of AIDS, the model is used to assess how various processes influence the course of the initial epidemic following the introduction of the virus. Models of the early stages of viral spread provide crude methods for estimating the basic reproductive rate of the virus, given a knowledge of the incubation period of AIDS and the initial doubling time of the epidemic. More complex models are formulated to assess the influence of heterogeneity in sexual activity. This latter factor is shown to have a major effect on the predicted pattern of the epidemic.

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Service Model Standardization of Risk Mitigation on Livestock Pandemic based on Network (네트워크 기반에서 가축 유행병 위기 완화 서비스 모델 표준화)

  • Kim, Dong Il;Chung, Hee Chang
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.450-452
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present a standard model of livestock epidemic service in the field of smart livestock, which is emerging as an important issue in smart agriculture. By using the network to identify the global livestock epidemic disease risk and provide relevant models to service users, it is expected that it will actually provide economic benefits to livestock owners and ultimately help the national livestock industry economy. In order to apply the standard livestock epidemic service standard model and the livestock infectious disease crisis mitigation standard model sharing method that is presented in conjunction with ICT to the standards in the domestic and international agricultural and livestock industries in the future, continuous research will be carried out.

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Development of epidemic model using the stochastic method (확률적 방법에 기반한 질병 확산 모형의 구축)

  • Ryu, Soorack;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.301-312
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this paper is to establish the epidemic model to explain the process of disease spread. The process of disease spread can be classified into two types: deterministic process and stochastic process. Most studies supposed that the process follows the deterministic process and established the model using the ordinary differential equation. In this article, we try to build the disease spread prediction model based on the SIR (Suspectible - Infectious - Recovered) model. we first estimated the model parameters using least squared method and applied to a deterministic model using ordinary differential equation. we also applied to a stochastic model based on Gillespie algorithm. The methods introduced in this paper are applied to the data on the number of cases of malaria every week from January 2001 to March 2003, released by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As a result, we conclude that our model explains well the process of disease spread.

Global Post-epidemic Recovery: The Impact of Role Modeling on Employees' Proactive Behavior

  • Wenjie Yang;Xiaoteng Wang;Myeong-Cheol Choi;Hannearl Kim
    • International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2023
  • With the end of global COVID-19 epidemic, hospital staff are likely to be "physically and mentally exhausted" after three years of grueling work in the fight against the epidemic. At this point, it is especially important to enable them to continue to maintain their previous proactive work behavior. This study focuses on 400 employees of various types in three-A grade hospitals in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, through the proactive motivation model. Statistical software SPSS 25.0 and AOMS 22.0 were used to analyze the survey data to test whether role modeling in hospital management can have an impact on employees' proactive behaviors, in addition to verifying the mediating role of transactional psychological contract. The results of this study show that: First, role modeling of hospital leaders has a positive effect on employees' proactive behavior and a negative effect on their transactional psychological contract; Second, transactional psychological contract has a negative effect on employees' proactive behavior; Third, the transactional psychological contract mediates the effect between role modeling of leaders and employees' proactive behavior. The results of this research add to the F-path of proactive motivation model, and provide enlightenments and implications for hospital management.

A study of epidemic model using SEIR model (SEIR 모형을 이용한 전염병 모형 예측 연구)

  • Do, Mijin;Kim, Jongtae;Choi, Boseung
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.297-307
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    • 2017
  • The epidemic model is used to model the spread of disease and to control the disease. In this research, we utilize SEIR model which is one of applications the SIR model that incorporates Exposed step to the model. The SEIR model assumes that a people in the susceptible contacted infected moves to the exposed period. After staying in the period, the infectee tends to sequentially proceed to the status of infected, recovered, and removed. This type of infection can be used for research in cases where there is a latency period after infectious disease. In this research, we collected respiratory infectious disease data for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERSCoV). Assuming that the spread of disease follows a stochastic process rather than a deterministic one, we utilized the Poisson process for the variation of infection and applied epidemic model to the stochastic chemical reaction model. Using observed pandemic data, we estimated three parameters in the SIER model; exposed rate, transmission rate, and recovery rate. After estimating the model, we applied the fitted model to the explanation of spread disease. Additionally, we include a process for generating the Exposed trajectory during the model estimation process due to the lack of the information of exact trajectory of Exposed.

MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF AN "SIR" EPIDEMIC MODEL IN A CONTINUOUS REACTOR - DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES

  • El Hajji, Miled;Sayari, Sayed;Zaghdani, Abdelhamid
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.58 no.1
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    • pp.45-67
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, a mathematical dynamical system involving both deterministic (with or without delay) and stochastic "SIR" epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate in a continuous reactor is considered. A profound qualitative analysis is given. It is proved that, for both deterministic models, if ��d > 1, then the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. However, if ��d ≤ 1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Concerning the stochastic model, the Feller's test combined with the canonical probability method were used in order to conclude on the long-time dynamics of the stochastic model. The results improve and extend the results obtained for the deterministic model in its both forms. It is proved that if ��s > 1, the disease is stochastically permanent with full probability. However, if ��s ≤ 1, then the disease dies out with full probability. Finally, some numerical tests are done in order to validate the obtained results.