• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.247-261
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• 2018

The objective of this paper is to compare probabilistic temperature forecasts from different regional and global ensemble prediction systems over PyeongChang area. A statistical post-processing method is used to take into account combination and calibration of forecasts from different numerical prediction systems, laying greater weight on ensemble model that exhibits the best performance. Observations for temperature were obtained from the 30 stations in PyeongChang and three different ensemble forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble Prediction System for Global and Limited Area Ensemble Prediction System that were obtained between 1 May 2014 and 18 March 2017. Prior to applying to the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecasts and corresponding observations. Then, ensemble model output statistics and bias-corrected methods were applied to each raw ensemble model and then proposed weighted combination of ensembles. The results showed that the proposed methods provide improved performances than raw ensemble mean. In particular, multi-model forecast based on ensemble model output statistics was superior to the bias-corrected forecast in terms of deterministic prediction.

• Atmosphere
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.455-464
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• 2012

This study investigates a 12 month-lead predictability of PNU Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) V1.1 hindcast, for which an oceanic data assimilated initialization is used to generate ocean initial condition. The CGCM, a participant model of APEC Climate Center (APCC) long-lead multi-model ensemble system, has been initialized at each and every month and performed 12-month-lead hindcast for each month during 1980 to 2011. The 12-month-lead hindcast consisted of 2-5 ensembles and this study verified the ensemble averaged hindcast. As for the sea-surface temperature concerns, it remained high level of confidence especially over the tropical Pacific and the mid-latitude central Pacific with slight declining of temporal correlation coefficients (TCC) as lead month increased. The CGCM revealed trustworthy ENSO prediction skills in most of hindcasts, in particular. For atmospheric variables, like air temperature, precipitation, and geopotential height at 500hPa, reliable prediction results have been shown during entire lead time in most of domain, particularly over the equatorial region. Though the TCCs of hindcasted precipitation are lower than other variables, a skillful precipitation forecasts is also shown over highly variable regions such as ITCZ. This study also revealed that there are seasonal and regional dependencies on predictability for each variable and lead.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.256-267
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• 2014

An automatic switch among ensembles of clustering algorithms is proposed as a part of the bibliographic big data retrieval system by utilizing a fuzzy inference engine as a decision support tool to select the fastest performing clustering algorithm between fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering, Newman-Girvan clustering, and the combination of both. It aims to realize the best clustering performance with the reduction of computational complexity from O($n^3$) to O(n). The automatic switch is developed by using fuzzy logic controller written in Java and accepts 3 inputs from each clustering result, i.e., number of clusters, number of vertices, and time taken to complete the clustering process. The experimental results on PC (Intel Core i5-3210M at 2.50 GHz) demonstrates that the combination of both clustering algorithms is selected as the best performing algorithm in 20 out of 27 cases with the highest percentage of 83.99%, completed in 161 seconds. The self-adapted FCM is selected as the best performing algorithm in 4 cases and the Newman-Girvan is selected in 3 cases.The automatic switch is to be incorporated into the bibliographic big data retrieval system that focuses on visualization of fuzzy relationship using hybrid approach combining FCM and Newman-Girvan algorithm, and is planning to be released to the public through the Internet.

• Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.271-276
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• 2001

In this study, We endeavored to revaluate the effects of different types of clothing and colors on clothing microclimate in the subjects wearing sports wear at sunlight environment. This study was conducted 4 different kinds (cotton 100%) of clothing ensembles, that was W-1(long trousers and shirt of white color), B-1 (long trousers and shirt of black color), W-s (short trousers and shirt white color), B-s (short trousers and shirt black color) and were done in a climate chamber under sunlight ambient temperature ($33.67{\pm}1.8^{\circ}C$, $46.0{\pm}8.5%RH$) by three males subject who are in good healthy. Start a 20-min rest period, 20-min bouts of exercise and final 20-min recovery period were performed. The kinetic load was given for 20 minutes under the condition of 6.0 km/hr walking speed on the treadmill. The results is as followed In case of same type of garment, temperature within clothing which is based on difference of color the white ensemble keeps higher temperature than black one. According to distribution chart of temperature within clothing in case of chest, white one shows higher temperature than black one, in case of back, black one shows higher temperature than white one. Difference of heart rate was so clear and sequence is W-1>B-1>W-s>B-s, so we could find same tendency with temperature within clothing.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.189-189
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• 2015

본 연구는 기후변화의 영향을 고려한 포아송 강우생성모형의 일종인 MBLRP(Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse)를 개발하고, 대한민국 주요 도시에 대해 향후 100년간 강우의 변화를 살펴보았다. 기존 MBLRP 모형에서 기후변화에 따른 강우량 변화를 고려할 수 있도록 GCM 모형의 강우 자료를 활용하였고, GCM 모형으로부터 발생하는 불확실성을 고려하기 위해 IPCC의 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways) 시나리오를 모의한 16개의 GCM 모형을 사용하였다. 2007년부터 2099년까지의 미래기간을 3개의 시 구간으로 구분하고, 16개 GCM 앙상블을 사용하여 미래기간 동안 대한민국 16개 도시에 대해 1000개의 샘플을 BWA 방법을 이용하여 생성하였다. 제어기간(1973-2005) 대비 미래기간(2007-2099)의 변화율을 나타내는 FOC(factor of change)와 온도의 연별 변화율을 나타내는 SF(scaling factor)의 개념을 결합하여 미래기간에 대한 CF(correction factor)를 산정하였다. 이때 CF는 16개 도시의 연 단위 강우량 변화 비율을 월별로 나타내며, 제어기간의 월 강우 관측치와 CF를 몬테카를로 모의를 실시하여 미래기간의 강우 시나리오를 산정한다. 이를 통해 월 평균 강우량 통계치를 연 단위로 얻을 수 있으며, 월 평균 강우량이 월 평균 분산, 무강우확률, 자기상관계수와 가지는 선형 관계를 통해 강우 통계치를 산출한다. 이와 같은 강우 통계치는 가상강우생성모형인 MBLRP 모형에 입력 자료로 활용되어 월 강우량을 시 단위의 강우 시계열 자료로 생성해낸다. 최종적으로 MBLRP 모형으로 산정된 시 단위 강우 시계열은 기후변화 영향을 고려한 GCMs 앙상블로 생성된 강우 시나리오를 기반으로 산출되기 때문에 향후 수자원 분석에 활용 가능할 것이라 기대된다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.91-110
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• 2019

In the present study, the effects of six different ground motion scaling methods on inelastic response of nonlinear steel moment frames (SMFs) are studied. The frames were designed using energy-based PBPD approach with the design concept using pre-selected target drift and yield mechanism as performance limit state. Two target spectrums are considered: maximum credible earthquake spectrum (MCE) and design response spectrum (DRS). In order to investigate the effects of ground motion scaling methods on the response of the structures, totally 3216 nonlinear models including three frames with 4, 8 and 16 stories are designed using PBPD approach and then they are subjected to ensembles of ground motions including 42 far-fault and 90 near-fault pulse-type records which were scaled using the six different scaling methods in accordance to the two aforementioned target spectrums. The distributions of maximum inter-story drift over the height of the structures are computed and compared. Finally, the efficiency and reliability of each ground motion scaling method to estimate the maximum nonlinear inter-story drift of special steel moment frames designed by energy-based PBPD approach are statistically investigated, and the most suitable scaling methods with the lowest dispersion for two groups of earthquake ground motions are introduced.

• Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.385-392
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• 2019

In our previous study, we investigated the use of ensemble models based on LeNet and MiniVGGNet to classify the images of transverse and longitudinal surfaces of five Korean softwoods (cedar, cypress, Korean pine, Korean red pine, and larch). It had accomplished an average F1 score of more than 98%; the classification performance of the longitudinal surface image was still less than that of the transverse surface image. In this study, ensemble methods of two different convolutional neural network models (LeNet3 for smartphone camera images and NIRNet for NIR spectra) were applied to lumber species classification. Experimentally, the best classification performance was obtained by the averaging ensemble method of LeNet3 and NIRNet. The average F1 scores of the individual LeNet3 model and the individual NIRNet model were 91.98% and 85.94%, respectively. By the averaging ensemble method of LeNet3 and NIRNet, an average F1 score was increased to 95.31%.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.26 no.6
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• pp.753-763
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• 2020

The early prediction of Compressive Strength of Concrete (CSC) is a significant task in the civil engineering construction projects. This study, therefore, is dedicated to introducing two novel hybrids of neural computing, namely Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) and Teaching-Learning-Based Optimization (TLBO) for predicting the CSC. The algorithms are applied to a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network to create the SCE-MLP and TLBO-MLP ensembles. The results revealed that, first, intelligent models can properly handle analyzing and generalizing the non-linear relationship between the CSC and its influential parameters. For example, the smallest and largest values of the CSC were 17.19 and 58.53 MPa, and the outputs of the MLP, SCE-MLP, and TLBO-MLP range in [17.61, 54.36], [17.69, 55.55] and [18.07, 53.83], respectively. Second, applying the SCE and TLBO optimizers resulted in increasing the correlation of the MLP products from 93.58 to 97.32 and 97.22%, respectively. The prediction error was also reduced by around 34 and 31% which indicates the high efficiency of these algorithms. Moreover, regarding the computation time needed to implement the SCE-MLP and TLBO-MLP models, the SCE is a considerably more time-efficient optimizer. Nevertheless, both suggested models can be promising substitutes for laboratory and destructive CSC evaluative models.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.177-190
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• 2021

Random forests is a popular method that improves the instability and accuracy of decision trees by ensembles. In contrast to increasing the accuracy, the ease of interpretation is sacrificed; hence, to compensate for this, variable importance is provided. The variable importance indicates which variable plays a role more importantly in constructing the random forests. However, when a predictor is correlated with other predictors, the variable importance of the existing importance algorithm may be distorted. The downward bias of correlated predictors may reduce the importance of truly important predictors. We propose a new algorithm remedying the downward bias of correlated predictors. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the simulated data and illustrated by the real data.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.625-637
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• 2022

Axial compression capacity (P_u) is a significant yet complex parameter of concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) columns. This study offers a novel ensemble tool, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) supervised by equilibrium optimization (EO), for accurately predicting this parameter. Moreover, grey wolf optimization (GWO) and Harris hawk optimizer (HHO) are considered as comparative supervisors. The used data is taken from earlier literature provided by finite element analysis. ANFIS is trained by several population sizes of the EO, GWO, and HHO to detect the best configurations. At a glance, the results showed the competency of such ensembles for learning and reproducing the P_u behavior. In details, respective mean absolute errors along with correlation values of 4.1809% and 0.99564, 10.5947% and 0.98006, and 4.8947% and 0.99462 obtained for the EO-ANFIS, GWO-ANFIS, and HHO-ANFIS, respectively, indicated that the proposed EO-ANFIS can analyze and predict the behavior of CFST columns with the highest accuracy. Considering both time and accuracy, the EO provides the most efficient optimization of ANFIS and can be a nice substitute for experimental approaches.