• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.67-80
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• 2017

Over the last few decades, ensemble forecasts based on global climate models have become an important part of climate forecast due to the ability to reduce uncertainty in prediction. Moreover in ensemble forecast, assessing the prediction uncertainty is as important as estimating the optimal weights, and this is achieved through a probabilistic forecast which is based on the predictive distribution of future climate. The Bayesian model averaging has received much attention as a tool of probabilistic forecasting due to its simplicity and superior prediction. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model averaging method for probabilistic ensemble forecasting. The proposed method combines a deterministic ensemble forecast based on a multivariate regression approach with Bayesian model averaging. We demonstrate that the proposed method is better in prediction than the standard Bayesian model averaging approach by analyzing monthly average precipitations and temperatures for ten cities in Korea.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.61-81
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• 2023

This study presents an ensemble learning based Bayesian model updating approach for structural damage diagnosis. In the developed framework, the structure is initially decomposed into a set of substructures. The autoregressive moving average (ARMAX) model is established first for structural damage localization based structural motion equation. The wavelet packet decomposition is utilized to extract the damage-sensitive node energy in different frequency bands for constructing structural surrogate models. Four methods, including Kriging predictor (KRG), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), support vector regression (SVR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), are selected as candidate structural surrogate models. These models are then resampled by bootstrapping and combined to obtain an ensemble model by probabilistic ensemble. Meanwhile, the maximum entropy principal is adopted to search for new design points for sample space updating, yielding a more robust ensemble model. Through the iterations, a framework of surrogate ensemble learning based model updating with high model construction efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The specificities of the method are discussed and investigated in a case study.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제23권1호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2016

An ensemble classifier is a method that combines output of multiple classifiers. It has been widely accepted that ensemble classifiers can improve the prediction accuracy. Recently, ensemble techniques have been successfully applied to the bankruptcy prediction. Bagging and random subspace are the most popular ensemble techniques. Bagging and random subspace have proved to be very effective in improving the generalization ability respectively. However, there are few studies which have focused on the integration of bagging and random subspace. In this study, we proposed a new hybrid ensemble model to integrate bagging and random subspace method using genetic algorithm for improving the performance of the model. The proposed model is applied to the bankruptcy prediction for Korean companies and compared with other models in this study. The experimental results showed that the proposed model performs better than the other models such as the single classifier, the original ensemble model and the simple hybrid model.

• 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.665-675
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• 2019

In this paper, we compare and analyze the classification performance of deep learning algorithm Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) ac cording to ensemble generation and combining techniques. We used several CNN models(VGG16, VGG19, DenseNet121, DenseNet169, DenseNet201, ResNet18, ResNet34, ResNet50, ResNet101, ResNet152, GoogLeNet) to create 10 ensemble generation combinations and applied 6 combine techniques(average, weighted average, maximum, minimum, median, product) to the optimal combination. Experimental results, DenseNet169-VGG16-GoogLeNet combination in ensemble generation, and the product rule in ensemble combination showed the best performance. Based on this, it was concluded that ensemble in different models of high benchmarking scores is another way to get good results.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.1-16
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• 2023

정확도가 높은 교통정보 예측은 지능형교통체계(intelligent transport systems, ITS)를 통한 교통 시설 이용자들의 혼잡 경로 회피 안내 등에서 활용되는 중요한 기능이다. 정확한 교통정보예측을 위해 다양한 딥러닝 모델들이 발전되어 왔다. 최근에는 앙상블 기법을 활용하여 다양한 모델들의 장단점을 결합하여 예측 정확도와 안정성을 높이고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 다양한 딥러닝 모델들을 활용하여 교통정보 예측 모델을 개발하였으며, 개발된 딥러닝 모델들을 스태킹 앙상블(stacking ensemble)하여 성능을 개선하였다. 개별 모델들은 교통량 예측에서 10% 이내의 오차율을, 속도 예측에서 3% 이내의 오차율을 보였다. 앙상블 모델은 교차검증을 수행하지 않았을 때, 타 모델과 비교하여 더욱 높은 정확도를 보였다. 교차검증을 수행한 앙상블 모델은 장기예측에서 타 모델보다 균일한 오차율을 보이는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.652-662
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• 2023

Identifying highly discriminating genes is a critical step in tumor recognition tasks based on microarray gene expression profile data and machine learning. Gene selection based on tree models has been the subject of several studies. However, these methods are based on a single-tree model, often not robust to ultra-highdimensional microarray datasets, resulting in the loss of useful information and unsatisfactory classification accuracy. Motivated by the limitations of single-tree-based gene selection, in this study, ensemble gene selection methods based on multiple-tree models were studied to improve the classification performance of tumor identification. Specifically, we selected the three most representative tree models: ID3, random forest, and gradient boosting decision tree. Each tree model selects top-n genes from the microarray dataset based on its intrinsic mechanism. Subsequently, three ensemble gene selection methods were investigated, namely multipletree model intersection, multiple-tree module union, and multiple-tree module cross-union, were investigated. Experimental results on five benchmark public microarray gene expression datasets proved that the multiple tree module union is significantly superior to gene selection based on a single tree model and other competitive gene selection methods in classification accuracy.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.1147-1151
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• 2009

In this study, we address the problem of producing probability forecasts of summer seasonal rainfall, on the basis of Hindcast experiments from a ensemble of GCMs(cwb, gcps, gdaps, metri, msc_gem, msc_gm2, msc_gm3, msc_sef and ncep). An advanced Hierarchical Bayesian weighting scheme is developed and used to combine nine GCMs seasonal hindcast ensembles. Hindcast period is 23 years from 1981 to 2003. The simplest approach for combining GCM forecasts is to weight each model equally, and this approach is referred to as pooled ensemble. This study proposes a more complex approach which weights the models spatially and seasonally based on past model performance for rainfall. The Bayesian approach to multi-model combination of GCMs determines the relative weights of each GCM with climatology as the prior. The weights are chosen to maximize the likelihood score of the posterior probabilities. The individual GCM ensembles, simple poolings of three and six models, and the optimally combined multimodel ensemble are compared.

• Advances in nano research
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.499-512
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• 2022

This study investigates the efficiency of ensemble machine learning for predicting the lightweight-aggregate concrete (LWC) characteristics. A stacking ensemble (STEN) approach was proposed to estimate the dry density (DD) and 28 days compressive strength (Fc-28) of LWC using two meta-models called random forest regressor (RFR) and extra tree regressor (ETR), and two novel ensemble models called STEN-RFR and STEN-ETR, were constructed. Four standalone machine learning models including artificial neural network, gradient boosting regression, K neighbor regression, and support vector regression were used to compare the performance of the proposed models. For this purpose, a sum of 140 LWC mixtures with 21 influencing parameters for producing LWC with a density less than 1000 kg/m³, were used. Based on the experimental results with multiple performance criteria, it can be concluded that the proposed STEN-ETR model can be used to estimate the DD and Fc-28 of LWC. Moreover, the STEN-ETR approach was found to be a significant technique in prediction DD and Fc-28 of LWC with minimal prediction error. In the validation phase, the accuracy of the proposed STEN-ETR model in predicting DD and Fc-28 was found to be 96.79% and 81.50%, respectively. In addition, the significance of cement, water-cement ratio, silica fume, and aggregate with expanded glass variables is efficient in modeling DD and Fc-28 of LWC.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2021년도 제64차 하계학술대회논문집 29권2호
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• pp.313-315
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• 2021

Timely and accurate diagnosis of lung diseases using Chest X-ray images has been gained much attention from the computer vision and medical imaging communities. Although previous studies have presented the capability of deep convolutional neural networks by achieving competitive binary classification results, their models were seemingly unreliable to effectively distinguish multiple disease groups using a large number of x-ray images. In this paper, we aim to build an advanced approach, so-called Ensemble Knowledge Distillation (EKD), to significantly boost the classification accuracies, compared to traditional KD methods by distilling knowledge from a cumbersome teacher model into an ensemble of lightweight student models with parallel branches trained with ground truth labels. Therefore, learning features at different branches of the student models could enable the network to learn diverse patterns and improve the qualify of final predictions through an ensemble learning solution. Although we observed that experiments on the well-established ChestX-ray14 dataset showed the classification improvements of traditional KD compared to the base transfer learning approach, the EKD performance would be expected to potentially enhance classification accuracy and model generalization, especially in situations of the imbalanced dataset and the interdependency of 14 weakly annotated thorax diseases.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.939-965
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• 2009

The Machine Learning has been identified as a promising approach to knowledge-based system development. This study aims to examine the ability of machine learning techniques for farmer's decision making and to develop the reference model for using pig farm data. We compared five machine learning techniques: logistic regression, decision tree, artificial neural network, k-nearest neighbor, and ensemble. All models are well performed to predict the sow's productivity in all parity, showing over 87.6% predictability. The model predictability of total litter size are highest at 91.3% in third parity and decreasing as parity increases. The ensemble is well performed to predict the sow's productivity. The neural network and logistic regression is excellent classifier for all parity. The decision tree and the k-nearest neighbor was not good classifier for all parity. Performance of models varies over models used, showing up to 104% difference in lift values. Artificial Neural network and ensemble models have resulted in highest lift values implying best performance among models.