• 제목/요약/키워드: Ensemble model

검색결과 632건 처리시간 0.033초

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석 (The KMA Global Seasonal forecasting system (GloSea6) - Part 2: Climatological Mean Bias Characteristics)

  • 현유경;이조한;신범철;최유나;김지영;이상민;지희숙;부경온;임소민;김혜리;류영;박연희;박형식;추성호;현승훤;황승언
    • 대기
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, the performance improvement for the new KMA's Climate Prediction System (GloSea6), which has been built and tested in 2021, is presented by assessing the bias distribution of basic variables from 24 years of GloSea6 hindcasts. Along with the upgrade from GloSea5 to GloSea6, the performance of GloSea6 can be regarded as notable in many respects: improvements in (i) negative bias of geopotential height over the tropical and mid-latitude troposphere and over polar stratosphere in boreal summer; (ii) cold bias of tropospheric temperature; (iii) underestimation of mid-latitude jets; (iv) dry bias in the lower troposphere; (v) cold tongue bias in the equatorial SST and the warm bias of Southern Ocean, suggesting the potential of improvements to the major climate variability in GloSea6. The warm surface temperature in the northern hemisphere continent in summer is eliminated by using CDF-matched soil-moisture initials. However, the cold bias in high latitude snow-covered area in winter still needs to be improved in the future. The intensification of the westerly winds of the summer Asian monsoon and the weakening of the northwest Pacific high, which are considered to be major errors in the GloSea system, had not been significantly improved. However, both the use of increased number of ensembles and the initial conditions at the closest initial dates reveals possibility to improve these biases. It is also noted that the effect of ensemble expansion mainly contributes to the improvement of annual variability over high latitudes and polar regions.

우수한 가역적 이산화탄소 및 수소 저장성능을 가지는 공유결합성 유기적 골격구조체에 관한 다중스케일 접근법을 이용한 연구 (Covalent Organic Frameworks for Extremely High Reversible $CO_2$ and $H_2$ Uptake Capacity : A Multiscale Simulation Approach)

  • 최윤정;최정훈;최경민;강정구
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2010년도 추계학술대회 초록집
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    • pp.113.2-113.2
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    • 2010
  • We report that the novel covalent organic frameworks (COFs) are capable of reversibly providing an extremely high uptake capacity of carbon dioxide and hydrogen at room temperature. These COFs are designed based on the multiscale simulations approach via the combination of ab initio calculations and force-field calculations. For this goal, we explore the adsorption sites of carbon dioxide and hydrogen on COFs, their porosity, as well as carbon dioxide adsorption isotherms. We identify the binding sites and energies of $CO_2$ on COFs using ab initio calculations and obtain the carbon dioxide adsorption isotherms using grand canonical ensemble Monte Carlo calculations. Moreover, the calculated adsorption isotherms are compared with the experimental values in order to build the reference model in describing the interactions between the $CO_2/H_2$ and the COFs and in predicting the $CO_2$ and $H_2$ adsorption isotherms of COFs. Finally, we design three new COFs, 2D COF-05, 3D COF-05 (ctn), and 3D COF-05 (bor), for the high capacity $CO_2/H_2$ and $H_2$ storage.

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다중 구조적응 자기구성지도의 퍼지결합을 이용한 웹 마이닝 (Web Mining Using Fuzzy Integration of Multiple Structure Adaptive Self-Organizing Maps)

  • 김경중;조성배
    • 한국정보과학회논문지:소프트웨어및응용
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    • 제31권1호
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2004
  • 폭발적으로 성장하고 있는 웹은 수백만 개의 웹 문서를 포함하고 있기 때문에, 적절한 웹사이트를 찾기 어렵다. 사용자 프로파일을 사용하여 적절한 웹사이트를 추천함으로써 웹의 탐색을 개인화 할 수도 있지만 웹 컨텐츠에 대한 사용자의 평가는 사용자의 성격에 관한 다양한 측면을 표현하므로 사용자의 선호도를 예측하기 위해서는 보다 효과적인 방법이 필요하다. 사용자 프로파일은 비선형적인 특성을 가지고 있으므로 분류기를 사용하여 예측하여야 하며 다양한 특성을 예측하기 위해 분류기의 결합이 필요하다. 패턴분류와 시각화에 유용한 구조적응 자기구성지도(SASOM)는 개선된 SOM 모델로서 웹 마이닝에 적절하다. 퍼지 적분은 주관적으로 정의된 분류기의 중요도를 이용하여 결합하는 방법이다. 본 논문에서는 독립적으로 학습된 SASOM의 퍼지적분(fuzzy integral)기반 결합을 이용하여 사용자의 프로파일을 예측하고 UCI 벤치마크 데이타인 Syskill & Webert 데이타를 사용하여 그 성능을 평가한다. 실험결과 제안한 방법이 기존의 naive Bayes 분류기뿐만 아니라 SASOM의 투표결합보다 우수한 성능을 보였다.

적운 모수화 방안이 고해상도 집중호우 예측에 미치는 영향 (Impact of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes with Different Horizontal Grid Sizes on Prediction of Heavy Rainfall)

  • 이재복;이동규
    • 대기
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2011
  • This study investigates the impact of cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) with different horizontal grid sizes on the simulation of the local heavy rainfall case over the Korean Peninsula. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-based real-time forecast system of the Joint Center for High-impact Weather and Climate Research (JHWC) is used. Three CPSs are used for sensitivity experiments: the BMJ (Betts-Miller-Janjic), GD (Grell-Devenyi ensemble), and KF (Kain-Fritsch) CPSs. The heavy rainfall case selected in this study is characterized by low-level jet and low-level transport of warm and moist air. In 27-km simulations (DM1), simulated precipitation is overestimated in the experiment with BMJ scheme, and it is underestimated with GD scheme. The experiment with KF scheme shows well-developed precipitation cells in the southern and the central region of the Korean Peninsula, which are similar to the observations. All schemes show wet bias and cold bias in the lower troposphere. The simulated rainfall in 27-km horizontal resolution has influence on rainfall forecast in 9-km horizontal resolution, so the statements on 27-km horizontal resolution can be applied to 9-km horizontal resolution. In the sensitivity experiments of CPS for DM3 (3-km resolution), the experiment with BMJ scheme shows better heavy rainfall forecast than the other experiments. The experiments with CPS in 3-km horizontal resolution improve rainfall forecasts compared to the experiments without CPS, especially in rainfall distribution. The experiments with CPS show lower LCL(Lifted Condensation Level) than those without CPS at the maximum rainfall point, and weaker vertical velocity is simulated in the experiments with CPS compared to the experiments without CPS. It means that CPS suppresses convective instability and influences mainly convective rainfall. Consequently, heavy rainfall simulation with BMJ CPS is better than the other CPSs, and even in 3-km horizontal resolution, CPS should be applied to control convective instability. This conclusion can be generalized by conducting more experiments for a variety of cases over the Korean Peninsula.

동북아 장거리 수송 과정에서 적운 모수화 및 미세물리과정이 오존 모사농도에 미치는 영향 연구 (A Study on the Effect of Cumulus Parameterization and Microphysics on Ozone Simulations during Long-range Transport Process over Northeast Asia)

  • 강정언;김철희
    • 한국대기환경학회지
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.135-151
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    • 2013
  • This study has been carried out to analyze the sensitivity of ozone concentrations by employing different options of cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) and microphysics schemes in MM5 models. These sensitivity tests were applied to long-range transport case of higher ozone over Northeast Asia. Employed CPS schemes are Betts-Miller (BM), Grell (GR), Kain-Fritsch2 (KF2), Anthes-Kuo (AK), None scheme (grid scale physics only), and four microphysics used here are Simple ice, Reisner1, Reisner2, Schultz scheme in MM5. We chose two cases of high ozone long range transport case by employing both concentrations ozone level and backward trajectory model. The results showed that modeled ozone concentrations indicated about 10% differences among CPSs. Of the all options, GR and KF2 (for CPS), and Rersiner-1 and Resiner-2 (for microphysics) showed relatively good and stable variations against ensemble mean values. For both CPS and microphysics schemes, the difference of precipitation arising from different parameterization schemes was significant by itself, but the resultant ozone variations showed only marginal. But the cloud fraction differences arising from different parameterization schemes showed better correlation with ozone variations than precipitation differences, indicating that the photochemical ozone generation variations is more dominant by cloud fraction than wet removal process for high and long-ranged transported ozone cases over Northeast Asia.

DEEP-South: The Photometric Study of Non-Principal Axis Rotator (5247) Krylov

  • Lee, Hee-Jae;Moon, Hong-Kyu;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kim, Chun-Hwey;Durech, Josef;Park, Jintae;Roh, Dong-Goo;Choi, Young-Jun;Yim, Hong-Suh;Oh, Young-Seok
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제41권2호
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    • pp.49.2-49.2
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    • 2016
  • The number of discovery of asteroids with peculiar rotational states has recently increased, and hence a novel approach for lightcurve analysis is considered to be critical. In order to investigate objects such as Non-Principal Axis (NPA) rotator, we selected a NPA candidate, (5247) Kryolv as our target considering its Principal Axis Rotation (PAR) code and the visibility in early 2016. The observations of Krylov were made using Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) 1.6 m telescopes installed at the three southern sites with TO (Target of Opportunity) observation mode. We conducted R-band time-series photometry over a total of 51 nights from January to April 2016 with several exposures during each allocated run. The ensemble normalization photometry was employed using the AAVSO Photomtric All-Sky Survey (APASS) catalog for the standardization. We successfully confirmed its NPA spin state based on the deviation from the reduced lightcurve, and thus Krylov is recorded as the first NPA rotator of its kind in the main-belt, with its precession and rotation periods, $P{\varphi}=81.18h$ and $P_{\Psi}=67.17h$, respectively. In this paper, we present the spin direction, the 3D shape model and taxonomy of the newly confirmed NPA asteroid (5247) Krylov.

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Lifelong Machine Learning 기반 스팸 메시지 필터링 방법 (A Method for Spam Message Filtering Based on Lifelong Machine Learning)

  • 안연선;정옥란
    • 전기전자학회논문지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.1393-1399
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    • 2019
  • 인터넷의 급속한 성장으로 데이터의 송수신의 편리성과 비용이 들지 않는다는 장점 때문에 매일 수백만 건의 무차별적인 광고성 스팸 문자와 메일이 발송되고 있다. 아직은 스팸 단어나 스팸 번호를 차단하는 방법을 주로 사용하지만, 기계 학습이 떠오름에 따라 스팸을 필터링하는 방법에 대해 다양한 방식으로 활발히 연구되고 있다. 그러나 스팸에서만 등장하는 단어나 패턴은 스팸 필터링 시스템에 의해 걸러지지 않기 위해 지속적으로 변화하고 있기 때문에, 기존 기계 학습 메커니즘으로는 새로운 단어와 패턴을 감지, 적응할 수 없다. 최근 이러한 기존 기계 학습의 한계점을 극복하기 위해 기존의 지식을 활용하여 새로운 지식을 지속적으로 학습하도록 하는 Lifelong Learning(이하 LL)의 개념이 대두되었다. 본 논문에서는 문서 분류에 가장 많이 사용되는 나이브 베이즈와 Lifelong Machine Learning(이하 LLML)의 앙상블 기법을 이용한 스팸 메시지 필터링 방법을 제안한다. 우리는 기존 스팸 필터링 시스템에 가장 많이 사용되는 나이브 베이즈와, LLML 모델 중 ELLA를 적용하여 LL의 성능을 검증한다.

Diffusion Behavior of n-Alkanes by Molecular Dynamics Simulations

  • Goo, Geun-Hoi;Sung, Gi-Hong;Lee, Song-Hi;Chang, Tai-Hyun
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • 제23권11호
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    • pp.1595-1603
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    • 2002
  • In this paper we have presented the results of diffusion behavior of model systems for eight liquid n-alkanes ($C_{12}$-$C_{44}$) in a canonical (NVT) ensemble at several temperatures using molecular dynamics simulations. For these n-alkanes of small chain length n, the chains are clearly <$R_{ee}^2$>/6<$R_g^2$>>1 and non-Gaussian. This result implies that the liquid n-alkanes over the whole temperatures considered are far away from the Rouse regime, though the ratio becomes close to the unity as n increases. Calculated self-diffusion constants $D_{self}$ are comparable with experimental results and the Arrhenius plot of self-diffusion constants versus inverse temperature shows a different temperature dependence of diffusion on the chain length. The global rotational motion of n-alkanes is examined by characterizing the orientation relaxation of the end-to-end vector and it is found that the ratio ${\tau}1/{\tau}2$ is less than 3, the value expected for a isotropically diffusive rotational process. The friction constants ${\xi}$of the whole molecules of n-alkanes are calculated directly from the force auto-correlation (FAC) functions and compared with the monomeric friction constants ${\xi}_D$ extracted from $D_{self}$. Both the friction constants give a correct qualitative trends: decrease with increasing temperature and increase with increasing chain length. The friction constant calculated from the FAC's decreases very slowly with increasing temperature, while the monomeric friction constant varies rapidly with temperature. By considering the orientation relaxation of local vectors and diffusion of each site, it is found that rotational and translational diffusions of the ends are faster than those of the center.

직사각형 프리즘 상면에서 발생되는 원추형 와의 유동구조 (Flow Structure of Conical Vortices Generated on the Roof of a Rectangular Prism)

  • 김경천;지호성;성승학
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.713-721
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    • 2001
  • Characteristics of the conical vortices on the roof corner of a rectangular prism have been investigated by using a PIV(Particle Image Velocimetry) technique. The Reynolds number based on the free stream velocity and the height of the model was 5.3$\times$10$^3$. The mean, instantaneous velocity vector fields, vorticity fields, and turbulent kinetic energy distribution were measured for two different angles of attack, 30$^{\circ}$and 45$^{\circ}$. The PIV measurements clearly observed not only the conical main vortex and the secondary vortex but also the tertiary vortex which is firstly reported in this paper. Asymmetric formation of the corner vortex for the case of 30$^{\circ}$angle of attack produces relatively the high magnitude of vorticity and turbulent kinetic energy around the bigger vortex which generates the peak suction pressure on the roof. Fairly symmetric features of the roof vortex are observed in the case of 45$^{\circ}$angle of attack, however, the dynamic characteristics are proved to be asymmetric due to the rectangular shape of the roof.

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)의 여름철 동아시아 몬순 지수 예측 성능 평가 (Prediction Skill for East Asian Summer Monsoon Indices in a KMA Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5))

  • 이소정;현유경;이상민;황승언;이조한;부경온
    • 대기
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.293-309
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    • 2020
  • There are lots of indices that define the intensity of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) in climate systems. This paper assesses the prediction skill for EASM indices in a Global Seasonal Forecasting System (GloSea5) that is currently operating at KMA. Total 5 different types of EASM indices (WNPMI, EAMI, WYI, GUOI, and SAHI) are selected to investigate how well GloSea5 reproduces them using hindcasts with 12 ensemble members with 1~3 lead months. Each index from GloSea5 is compared to that from ERA-Interim. Hindcast results for the period 1991~2010 show the highest prediction skill for WNPMI which is defined as the difference between the zonal winds at 850 hPa over East China Sea and South China Sea. WYI, defined as the difference between the zonal winds of upper and lower level over the Indian Ocean far from East Asia, is comparatively well captured by GloSea5. Though the prediction skill for EAMI which is defined by using meridional winds over areas of East Asia and Korea directly affected by EASM is comparatively low, it seems that EAMI is useful for predicting the variability of precipitation by EASM over East Asia. The regressed atmospheric fields with EASM index and the correlation with precipitation also show that GloSea5 best predicts the synoptic environment of East Asia for WNPMI among 5 EASM indices. Note that the result in this study is limited to interpret only for GloSea5 since the prediction skill for EASM index depends greatly on climate forecast model systems.