• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2002.08a
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• pp.513-516
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• 2002

The flow structure and heat transfer characteristics of a turbulent buoyant jet were investigated experimentally. The instantaneous temperature and velocity fields in the near field were measured using a two-frame PIV and PLIF techniques. A thin light sheet illuminated a two-dimensional cross section of the buoyant jet in which Rhodamine B was added as a fluorescent dye. The intensity variations of LIF signal from Rhodamine B molecules scattered by the laser light were captured by a CCD camera after passing an optical filter. By ensemble averaging the instantaneous temperature and velocity fields, the mean temperature and velocity fields as well as the spatial distributions of turbulent statistics were obtained. The results show the flow structure and convective heat transfer of the developing shear layer in the near field.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.1203-1212
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• 2017

Intrusion detection systems (IDSs) are crucial in this overwhelming increase of attacks on the computing infrastructure. It intelligently detects malicious and predicts future attack patterns based on the classification analysis using machine learning and data mining techniques. This paper is devoted to thoroughly evaluate classifier ensembles for IDSs in IEEE 802.11 wireless network. Two ensemble techniques, i.e. voting and stacking are employed to combine the three base classifiers, i.e. decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM). We use area under ROC curve (AUC) value as a performance metric. Finally, we conduct two statistical significance tests to evaluate the performance differences among classifiers.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.121-139
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• 2014

Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.377-380
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• 2022

An application called an app can be downloaded and used on mobile devices. Among them, Android-based apps have the disadvantage of being implemented on an open source basis and can be exploited by anyone, but unlike iOS, which discloses only a small part of the source code, Android is implemented as an open source, so it can analyze the code. However, since anyone can participate in changing the source code of open source-based Android apps, the number of malicious codes increases and types are bound to vary. Malicious codes that increase exponentially in a short period of time are difficult for humans to detect one by one, so it is efficient to use a technique to detect malicious codes using AI. Most of the existing malicious app detection methods are to extract Features and detect malicious apps. Therefore, three ways to select the optimal feature to be used for learning after feature extraction are proposed. Finally, in the step of modeling with optimal features, ensemble techniques are used in addition to a single model. Ensemble techniques have already shown results beyond the performance of a single model, as has been shown in several studies. Therefore, this paper presents a plan to select the optimal feature and implement a learning model for Android app-based malicious code detection.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.105-129
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• 2020

This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.11
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• pp.21-31
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• 2021

As the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly changes healthcare around the globe, the need for smart healthcare that allows for remote diagnosis is increasing. The current classification of respiratory diseases cost high and requires a face-to-face visit with a skilled medical professional, thus the pandemic significantly hinders monitoring and early diagnosis. Therefore, the ability to accurately classify and diagnose respiratory sound using deep learning-based AI models is essential to modern medicine as a remote alternative to the current stethoscope. In this study, we propose a deep learning-based respiratory sound classification model using data collected from medical experts. The sound data were preprocessed with BandPassFilter, and the relevant respiratory audio features were extracted with Log-Mel Spectrogram and Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC). Subsequently, a Parallel CNN network model was trained on these two inputs using stacking ensemble techniques combined with various machine learning classifiers to efficiently classify and detect abnormal respiratory sounds with high accuracy. The model proposed in this paper classified abnormal respiratory sounds with an accuracy of 96.9%, which is approximately 6.1% higher than the classification accuracy of baseline model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.761-774
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• 2022

Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.29-45
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• 2012

Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

• The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.486-491
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• 2004

Purpose: factor analysis and independent component analysis (ICA) has been used for handling dynamic image sequences. Theoretical advantages of a newly suggested ICA method, ensemble ICA, leaded us to consider applying this method to the analysis of dynamic myocardial $H_2^{15}O$ PET data. In this study, we quantified patients' blood flow using the ensemble ICA method. Materials and Methods: Twenty subjects underwent $H_2^{15}O$ PET scans using ECAT EXACT 47 scanner and myocardial perfusion SPECT using Vertex scanner. After transmission scanning, dynamic emission scans were initiated simultaneously with the injection of $555{\sim}740$ MBq $H_2^{15}O$. Hidden independent components can be extracted from the observed mixed data (PET image) by means of ICA algorithms. Ensemble learning is a variational Bayesian method that provides an analytical approximation to the parameter posterior using a tractable distribution. Variational approximation forms a lower bound on the ensemble likelihood and the maximization of the lower bound is achieved through minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the true posterior and the variational posterior. In this study, posterior pdf was approximated by a rectified Gaussian distribution to incorporate non-negativity constraint, which is suitable to dynamic images in nuclear medicine. Blood flow was measured in 9 regions - apex, four areas in mid wall, and four areas in base wall. Myocardial perfusion SPECT score and angiography results were compared with the regional blood flow. Results: Major cardiac components were separated successfully by the ensemble ICA method and blood flow could be estimated in 15 among 20 patients. Mean myocardial blood flow was $1.2{\pm}0.40$ ml/min/g in rest, $1.85{\pm}1.12$ ml/min/g in stress state. Blood flow values obtained by an operator in two different occasion were highly correlated (r=0.99). In myocardium component image, the image contrast between left ventricle and myocardium was 1:2.7 in average. Perfusion reserve was significantly different between the regions with and without stenosis detected by the coronary angiography (P<0.01). In 66 segment with stenosis confirmed by angiography, the segments with reversible perfusion decrease in perfusion SPECT showed lower perfusion reserve values in $H_2^{15}O$ PET. Conclusions: Myocardial blood flow could be estimated using an ICA method with ensemble learning. We suggest that the ensemble ICA incorporating non-negative constraint is a feasible method to handle dynamic image sequence obtained by the nuclear medicine techniques.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.249-258
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• 2022

A disc cutter is an excavation tool on a tunnel boring machine (TBM) cutterhead; it crushes and cuts rock mass while the machine excavates using the cutterhead's rotational movement. Disc cutter wear occurs naturally. Thus, along with the management of downtime and excavation efficiency, abrasioned disc cutters need to be replaced at the proper time; otherwise, the construction period could be delayed and the cost could increase. The most common prediction models for TBM performance and for the disc cutter lifetime have been proposed by the Colorado School of Mines and Norwegian University of Science and Technology. However, design parameters of existing models do not well correspond to the field values when a TBM encounters complex and difficult ground conditions in the field. Thus, this study proposes a series of machine learning models to predict the disc cutter lifetime of a shield TBM using the excavation (machine) data during operation which is response to the rock mass. This study utilizes five different machine learning techniques: four types of classification models (i.e., K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Staking Ensemble Model) and one artificial neural network (ANN) model. The KNN model was found to be the best model among the four classification models, affording the highest recall of 81%. The ANN model also predicted the wear rate of disc cutters reasonably well.