• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble Method

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Ordinary Kriging of Daily Mean SST (Sea Surface Temperature) around South Korea and the Analysis of Interpolation Accuracy (정규크리깅을 이용한 우리나라 주변해역 일평균 해수면온도 격자지도화 및 내삽정확도 분석)

  • Ahn, Jihye;Lee, Yangwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2022
  • SST (Sea Surface Temperature) is based on the atmosphere-ocean interaction, one of the most important mechanisms for the Earth system. Because it is a crucial oceanic and meteorological factor for understanding climate change, gap-free grid data at a specific spatial and temporal resolution is beneficial in SST studies. This paper examined the production of daily SST grid maps from 137 stations in 2020 through the ordinary kriging with variogram optimization and their accuracy assessment. The variogram optimization was achieved by WLS (Weighted Least Squares) method, and the blind tests for the interpolation accuracy assessment were conducted by an objective and spatially unbiased sampling scheme. The four-round blind tests showed a pretty high accuracy: a root mean square error between 0.995 and 1.035℃ and a correlation coefficient between 0.981 and 0.982. In terms of season, the accuracy in summer was a bit lower, presumably because of the abrupt change in SST affected by the typhoon. The accuracy was better in the far seas than in the near seas. West Sea showed better accuracy than East or South Sea. It is because the semi-enclosed sea in the near seas can have different physical characteristics. The seasonal and regional factors should be considered for accuracy improvement in future work, and the improved SST can be a member of the SST ensemble around South Korea.

Data-Driven Technology Portfolio Analysis for Commercialization of Public R&D Outcomes: Case Study of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence Fields (공공연구성과 실용화를 위한 데이터 기반의 기술 포트폴리오 분석: 빅데이터 및 인공지능 분야를 중심으로)

  • Eunji Jeon;Chae Won Lee;Jea-Tek Ryu
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2021
  • Since small and medium-sized enterprises fell short of the securement of technological competitiveness in the field of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) field-core technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it is important to strengthen the competitiveness of the overall industry through technology commercialization. In this study, we aimed to propose a priority related to technology transfer and commercialization for practical use of public research results. We utilized public research performance information, improving missing values of 6T classification by deep learning model with an ensemble method. Then, we conducted topic modeling to derive the converging fields of big data and AI. We classified the technology fields into four different segments in the technology portfolio based on technology activity and technology efficiency, estimating the potential of technology commercialization for those fields. We proposed a priority of technology commercialization for 10 detailed technology fields that require long-term investment. Through systematic analysis, active utilization of technology, and efficient technology transfer and commercialization can be promoted.

Very Short- and Long-Term Prediction Method for Solar Power (초 장단기 통합 태양광 발전량 예측 기법)

  • Mun Seop Yun;Se Ryung Lim;Han Seung Jang
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.1143-1150
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    • 2023
  • The global climate crisis and the implementation of low-carbon policies have led to a growing interest in renewable energy and a growing number of related industries. Among them, solar power is attracting attention as a representative eco-friendly energy that does not deplete and does not emit pollutants or greenhouse gases. As a result, the supplement of solar power facility is increasing all over the world. However, solar power is easily affected by the environment such as geography and weather, so accurate solar power forecast is important for stable operation and efficient management. However, it is very hard to predict the exact amount of solar power using statistical methods. In addition, the conventional prediction methods have focused on only short- or long-term prediction, which causes to take long time to obtain various prediction models with different prediction horizons. Therefore, this study utilizes a many-to-many structure of a recurrent neural network (RNN) to integrate short-term and long-term predictions of solar power generation. We compare various RNN-based very short- and long-term prediction methods for solar power in terms of MSE and R2 values.

Stock Price Direction Prediction Using Convolutional Neural Network: Emphasis on Correlation Feature Selection (합성곱 신경망을 이용한 주가방향 예측: 상관관계 속성선택 방법을 중심으로)

  • Kyun Sun Eo;Kun Chang Lee
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.21-39
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    • 2020
  • Recently, deep learning has shown high performance in various applications such as pattern analysis and image classification. Especially known as a difficult task in the field of machine learning research, stock market forecasting is an area where the effectiveness of deep learning techniques is being verified by many researchers. This study proposed a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to predict the direction of stock prices. We then used the feature selection method to improve the performance of the model. We compared the performance of machine learning classifiers against CNN. The classifiers used in this study are as follows: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, Adaboost, Bagging, and Random Forest. The results of this study confirmed that the CNN showed higher performancecompared with other classifiers in the case of feature selection. The results show that the CNN model effectively predicted the stock price direction by analyzing the embedded values of the financial data

Analysis of Mosaic Image of Animation (애니메이션 <플랫 라이프>의 모자이크 이미지 분석)

  • Lee, Ji-Hyun
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.49
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    • pp.465-491
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    • 2017
  • This paper analyzes the short animation film which faithfully follows the external dimension of cartoons, and studies the hidden subject and the way of narrative in the back of the figure. In this process, we analyze the theme of using the analysis method of mosaic image. The narrative of cartoons is usually the majority in discussing the differences in the aspectual part. However, this animation uses cartoons to reach the linear narrative of ordinary narrative movies. As Janet Murray explains, if a 'mosaic image' approaches a theme through a mosaic approach, we can limit the 'mosaic film' that are introduced in the film format among them. First of all, conceptually uses the characteristics of 'mosaic image', at the same time, it utilizes a work utilizing the narrative features of 'mosaic film'. By analyzing this animation film by bifurcation, the first half reveals the characteristics of open-minded mosaic video platform, and the second half introduces the linear narrative method of film narrative. This paper divides the narrative method of 'multi plot Film' into three types: mosaic narrative film, network narrative film, and multi-draft film. Thus, we can analyze the ending of as a narrative method of 'network narrative film' which is composed of parallel or juxtaposed stories. In other words, if the early part of the animation follows the 'mosaic narrative' as an 'extension of ensemble film', the latter part faithfully follows 'network narrative'. Even in the way of talking about the subject, this animated film uses the way of speaking the mosaic image. Considering the aspectual tendency of cartoons, it can be said that this film derives the meaning of 'humor' or 'satire' in an open way. If the first half refers to 'the ambiguous routine of modern man', the latter half draws a profound theme called 'the reality of human selfishness in modern society'. is a film for a wide range of social criticism designed for adults who can interpret meaning.

Studies about Acceptance of Songs or Sounds 'Sori(唱)' appeared in Musical Comedy performed in Korean Traditional Music and Changeable Aspects Thereof - Centering around Korean Musical Group, Taroo - (국악뮤지컬에 나타난 소리(창(唱))의 수용 및 변화양상 연구 - "'국악뮤지컬집단 타루'를 중심으로" -)

  • Jung, Hyewon
    • Journal of Korean Theatre Studies Association
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    • no.49
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    • pp.5-47
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    • 2013
  • Among the styles of performing arts, perhaps the genre that has attracted the largest audience would be musical. Popularity of musical has brought diverse changes in our performing arts market, and, upon emerging another musical genre, called 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy,' it has been well-received by the audiences. 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' is a word that are formed by merging two other terms such as 'Korean Traditional Music' and 'Musical (Comedy).' In the meantime, however, it has yet some problems in order to be defined as the genre that has concrete concepts. It is because the term such as Korean Traditional Musical Comedy was created being closely associated with a marketing purpose rather than a term that defines the characteristics of a genre of performing arts. Although this new musical genre has drawn attentions of many audiences by adding 'Musical Comedy' to 'Korean Traditional Music' that was not quite popular to the public, it still does not have any established forms so that there is a fine line between "Korean Traditional Musical Comedy" and another genre like traditional style folk opera ("Changgeuk"). Looking at the characteristics of the musical work called 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy, in general, first of all, it is a performance where music and drama are played. Here, the distinctive characteristic of this musical is that 'Korean Traditional Music' is sung. And the kinds of Korean traditional musics being sung are mainly Pansori (dramatic story-singing) and folk-songs, and, in most cases, Korean traditional musical instruments are being used as accompanying music. In this paper, the researcher investigated the aspects of experiment centering around Korean Musical Group, Taroo. These days, various experiments has been repeated not only for the works of Taroo but other musical work presently called 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' also. Having encompassed overall performance factors including use of musical instruments, dance, acting, materials for drama as well as music in drama, the researcher has gone through experiments repeatedly. Meanwhile, however, the subject matters that make 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' mostly attractive to the audiences are music and songs or sounds. ["Sori" also called "Chang" (唱)] Particularly, under the current situation of our musicals, the role of "Sori" is extremely important. The factor that plays absolutely most important role in acceptance and transformation of "Sori" is the created Pansori. Since the created Pansori is composed with new rhythmic patterns and new narrative poems, it tells the present story. Also it draws good responses from the audiences owing to easy conveyance of dialogues. And, its new style brings diversification to organization of musical instruments, so then this leads to the arrangements of music for Korean traditional music instruments, as well as instrumental music ensemble, orchestra, and jazz band, etc. Likewise, upon appearing creative musics in 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy,' professional music and vocal compositions have begun to emerge naturally. And, the song specialist and writer, of course, staffs including direction, lighting, and sounds, etc are required. That is, professional composition method are forced to be introduced to all areas. Other than this, there are many music pieces which are based on our unique songs and sounds ("Sori") and such traditional factors as use of lead singer for ceremony or chorus, and the method that puts weight on Pansori. Accordingly many things accomplished. However, it is required that 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' go through numerous discussions and more experiments. Above all, the most important things are the role of actor and actress, and their changes, and training of actor and actress further. Good news is there are good audience responses. 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' is an open genre. As musicals are divided into several domains according to the characteristics thereof, 'Korean Traditional Musical Comedy' will be able to show its distinctive features in various styles according to embodiment.

A Recidivism Prediction Model Based on XGBoost Considering Asymmetric Error Costs (비대칭 오류 비용을 고려한 XGBoost 기반 재범 예측 모델)

  • Won, Ha-Ram;Shim, Jae-Seung;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.127-137
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    • 2019
  • Recidivism prediction has been a subject of constant research by experts since the early 1970s. But it has become more important as committed crimes by recidivist steadily increase. Especially, in the 1990s, after the US and Canada adopted the 'Recidivism Risk Assessment Report' as a decisive criterion during trial and parole screening, research on recidivism prediction became more active. And in the same period, empirical studies on 'Recidivism Factors' were started even at Korea. Even though most recidivism prediction studies have so far focused on factors of recidivism or the accuracy of recidivism prediction, it is important to minimize the prediction misclassification cost, because recidivism prediction has an asymmetric error cost structure. In general, the cost of misrecognizing people who do not cause recidivism to cause recidivism is lower than the cost of incorrectly classifying people who would cause recidivism. Because the former increases only the additional monitoring costs, while the latter increases the amount of social, and economic costs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an XGBoost(eXtream Gradient Boosting; XGB) based recidivism prediction model considering asymmetric error cost. In the first step of the model, XGB, being recognized as high performance ensemble method in the field of data mining, was applied. And the results of XGB were compared with various prediction models such as LOGIT(logistic regression analysis), DT(decision trees), ANN(artificial neural networks), and SVM(support vector machines). In the next step, the threshold is optimized to minimize the total misclassification cost, which is the weighted average of FNE(False Negative Error) and FPE(False Positive Error). To verify the usefulness of the model, the model was applied to a real recidivism prediction dataset. As a result, it was confirmed that the XGB model not only showed better prediction accuracy than other prediction models but also reduced the cost of misclassification most effectively.

A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

A Study of the Time-Space and Appreciation for the Performance Culture of Gwanseo Region in Late Joseon Period: Focusing on Analysis of Terminology (조선후기 관서지방의 공연 시공간과 향유에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Hye-jin
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.22
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    • pp.287-325
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    • 2011
  • This paper studies the time-space and appreciation of the performance culture of Gwanseo region, which is considered to have formed a characteristic culture in late Joseon period. For this purpose, 4 gasa written in hangeul (Korean alphabet), as well as 4 yeonhaeng gasa, 108 articles of Gwanseoakbu were examined. Plus, among the 9 types of yeonhaengrok (Documents of Performance culture) written in Chinese character, those parts which describe the performance traits have been analyzed. Then, 'main list of terminology' has been deduced based on the categorization according to the following points : 1) subjects of performance and appreciation 2) time and period of performance 3) space of performance 4) contents of performance 5) background and motive for performance and 6) method of performance. Through this process, various 'nouns' and 'predicate verbs' in relation to performance culture emerged, which were systemized according to types of performance elements and categories. Major terminology includes predicate verbs and symbolic verbs such as nokuihongsang,' 'baekdaehongjang,' 'jeolsaekgeumga,' 'cheonga,' 'hwaryu,' 'gamuja,' and 'tongsoja,' as well as the terms already known such as gisaeng, iwon, yangbang, akgong, and jeonak, which refer to musicians and dancers. Subjects of performance were divided into performers and listeners, categorized into concert, music, and dance, according to performance form. In the case for music, it was divided into instrumental or vocal, solo or accompanied (byeongju, self-accompaniment). In the case for vocal music, noteworthy was the inclusion of profesional artist's singing (called gwangdae or uchang). The record of 23 names of popular artists from Gwanseo region, with mention of special talents for each person, reflects the degree of activeness and artistic level of the province. Depending on the appreciating patrons, the audience were indicated as the terms including 'yugaek (party guest),' jwasang,' 'on jwaseok,' and 'sonnim (guests).' It seems that appraisal for a certain performance was very much affected by the tastes, views, and disposition of the appreciating patrons. Therefore it is interesting to observe different comparative reviews of concerts of different regions given by literary figures, offering various criticism on identical performance. In terms of performance space, it has been divided into natural or architectural space, doing justice to special performance sites such as a famous pavilion or an on-the-boat performance. Specific terms related to the scale and brightness of stage, as well as stage props and cast, based on descriptions of performance space were found. The performance space, including famous pavilions; Yeongwangjeong, Bubyeokru, Baeksangru, Wolparu, and Uigeomjeong, which are all well-known tourist sites of Gwanseo province, have been often visited by viceroys. governors, and envoys during a tour or trip. This, and the fact that full-scale performances were regularly held here, and that more than 15 different kinds of boats which were used for boat concert are mentioned, all confirm the general popularity of boat concerts at the time. Performance time, categorized by season or time of day (am/pm/night) and analyzed in terms of time of occurrence and duration, there were no special limitation as to when to have a performance. Most morning concerts were held as part of official duties for the envoys, after their meeting session, whereas evening concerts were more lengthy in duration, with a greater number of people in the audience. In the case of boat concert, samples include day-time concert and performances that began during the day and which lasted till later in the evening. Major terminology related to performance time and season includes descriptions of time of day (morning, evening, night) and mention of sunset, twilight, moonlight, stars, candles, and lamps. Such terms which reflect the flow of time contributed in making a concert more lively. Terminology for the contents of performance was mostly words like 'instrumental,' 'pungak,' or 'pungnyu.' Besides, contextual expressions gave hints as to whether there were dance, singing, ensemble, solo, and duets. Words for dance and singing used in Gwanseo province were almost identical to those used for gasa and jeongjae in the capital, Hanyang. However, many sentences reveal that performances of 'hangjangmu' of hongmunyeon, sword dance, and baettaragi were on a top-quality level. Moreover, chants in hanmun Chinese character and folk songs, which are characteristic for this region, show unique features of local musical performance. It is judged that understanding the purpose and background of a performance is important in grasping the foundation and continuity of local culture. Concerts were usually either related to official protocol for 'greeting,' 'sending-off,' 'reports,' and 'patrols' or for private enjoyment. The rituals for Gwanseo province characteristically features river crossing ceremony on the Daedong river, which has been closely documented by many. What is more, the Gwanseo region featured continued coming and goings of Pyeongan envoys and local officers, as well as ambassadors to and fro China, which required an organized and full-scale performance of music and dance. The method of performance varied from a large-scale, official ones, for which female entertainers and a great banquet in addition to musicians were required, to private gatherings that are more intimate. A performance may take the form of 'taking turns' or 'a competition,' reflecting the dynamic nature of the musical culture at the time. This study, which is deduction of terminology in relation to the time-space and appreciation culture of musical performances of Gwanseo region in late Joseon period, should be expanded in the future into research on 'the performance culture unique to Gwanseo region,' in relation to the financial and administrative aspects of the province, as well as everyday lifestyle. Furthermore, it could proceed to a more intensive research by a comparative study with related literary documents and pictorial data, which could serve as the foundation for understanding the use of space and stage, as well as the performance format characteristic to Korean traditional performing arts.