• Title/Summary/Keyword: Engineering Economic Decision

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Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

The Development of a Model for Selecting Method of Entry for Apartment in Remodeling an Underground Parking Lot (지하주차장 리모델링 공사시 주동진입방법 선정 모델 개발)

  • Song, Nak-Hyun;Jung, In-Su;Lee, Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2009
  • It is expected that the number of apartment complexes in Korea that are over 20 years old will rapidly increase to more than 3,500,000. Consequently, the remodeling of these buildings is being revitalized throughout the country. Among the requirements for such remodeling, the expansion of parking lots has considerable weight. When enlarging a parking lot, the access route from an underground floor to the main building (i.e., the means of entry into the main building) determines the possibility of vertical enlargement for elevators, the size of the parking lot, the construction period, and construction expenses, etc. When enlarging an underground parking lot of an apartment complex, the access between the main building and the parking lot, as well as the inhabitants' requirements for entering the main building, are generally determined based on the designer's experience, rather than on the exact estimation of the peculiarity of the complex. In order to resolve such a problem, when enlarging an underground parking lot, a systematic and rational method is needed for selecting the means of entry into the main building. In this study, a selection model is derived for the method of selecting an access route into the main building when constructing an underground parking lot, in order to provide a reasonable decision-making process. A research method was investigated for determining the access route into the main building when enlarging a parking lot. On the basis of research carried out through in-depth interviews with experts, the characteristics for each means of entry into the main building were analyzed and the factors affecting the selection of the access route were deduced. The affecting factors selected were construction efficiency, convenience efficiency and economic efficiency. Weight values were then estimated for the selected affecting factors by applying the AHP method. Results showed that convenience efficiency, which gained the highest value, is the most important factor in selecting the means of entry into the main building. The most suitable means of entry into the main building was also suggested after estimating the applicability of the site by selecting complexes with remodeling possibility. This study will be applied as a reference for selecting the means of entry into the main building when constructing an underground parking lot particularly for older apartment complexes.

Effective Management of Invasive Nutria (Myocastor coypus) in the UK and the USA (영국과 미국에서 침입성 뉴트리아 (Myocastor coypus)의 효과적 관리)

  • Kil, Jihyon;Lee, Do-hun;Kim, Young-chae
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2015
  • It is the better to take preventative measures against the natural intrusion in advance from invasive alien species that reduce biodiversity and cause economic loss to humans. If the prevention of intrusion and spread fails, we need to make active control and eradication. This study aims to introduce nutria (Myocastor coypus) control cases performed in the United Kingdom and the United States and to provide information for the contribution of nutria management measure improvements. The nutria eradication campaign in the United Kingdom was developed as a long-term plan based on sufficient understanding on the management target and objective and suitable support. Sufficient information on nutria was accumulated and the management strategy was flexibly modified according to the changes in management that were proactively reflected in the field. Regarding the eradication project at Chesapeake Bay in the United States, based on long-term ecological information, more advanced capture technology than in the United Kingdom were introduced and the eradication plan, strategy and implementation were configured by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the eradication campaign in the United Kingdom. The successful cases in the United Kingdom and the United State provide an information on how to improv the nutria management measure. For the eradication of nutria, it is necessary to reach a consensus between stakeholders and to form a consultative group between related organizations for periodic communication. Opinions on the field must be actively accepted in the consultation process for strategy and policy decision, and the eradication plan needs to be developed based on a management index. The eradication plan is required to be managed, evaluated and adjusted in a systematic way. Scientific management must be introduced and the management performance must be evaluated objectively so that a practical plan can be flexibly adjusted. It is also required to secure a long-term budget support and a stable organization and to input a concentrated budget at the proper period when there is high efficiency of eradication.

Assessment of the Potential Consumers' Preference for the V2G System (V2G 시스템에 대한 잠재적 소비자의 선호 평가)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Kim, Hee-Hoon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) system, bi-direction power trading technology, enables drivers possessing electric vehicle to sell the spare electricity charged in the vehicle to power distribution company. The drivers gain profit by charging electricity in the day time of high electricity rate. In this regard, the government is preparing the policies of building and supporting V2G infrastructure and demanding the potential consumers' preference for the V2G system. This paper attempts to analyze the consumers' preference using the data from obtained a survey of randomly selected 1,000 individuals. To this end, choice experiment, an economic technique, is employed here. The attributes considered in the study are residual amount of electricity, electricity trading hours, required plug-in time, and price measured as an amount additional to current gasoline vehicle price. The multinomial logit model, which requires the assumption of 'independence of irrelevant alternatives', is applied but the assumption could not be satisfied in our data. Thus, we finally utilized nested logit model which does not require the assumption. All the parameter estimates in the utility function are statistically significant at the 10% level. The estimation results show that the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for one hour increase in electricity trading hours is estimated to be KRW 1,601,057. On the other hand, a one percent reduction in residual amount of electricity and one hour reduction in required plug-in time in V2G system are computed to be KRW -91,911 and -470,619, respectively. The findings can provide policy makers with useful information for decision-making about introducing and managing V2G system.