• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.77-86
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• 2009

접촉확률그래프는 한 대의 차량이 지뢰지대를 임의로 통과할 때 한 발의 지뢰가 폭발될 수 있는 확률을 측정한 그래프이다. 이 지뢰지대 밀도별 접촉확률 그래프는 한국 및 미(美) 육군의 야전교범에 제시되어 있으나 실 기동에 의한 데이터인지 워게임에 의한 결과치 인지 근거가 없는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 신뢰할 만한 자료로서 근거가 없는 접촉확률 그래프를 컴퓨터 프로그램으로 절차식 모델을 구축하여 증명한다. 구축한 프로그램으로 산출된 결과치는 접촉확률그래프에 제시된 값과 거의 유사하게 나타낸다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시한 절차식 모델은 모델링이 요구하는 타당성 및 모델자체의 검증에 있어 충분한 조건을 갖추었으며 다수 차량의 접촉확률을 계산하는데 있어서 매우 유용하다.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.332-339
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• 2013

The network nodes in a tactical network moves continuously and due to the physical and electronic obstacles, the connections are not always available. Due to the frequent disconnections, it is hard to discover the path among the nodes in a DTN. According to PROPHET(Probabilistic Routing Protocol using History of Encounters and Transitivity), one of the most well-known DTN routing protocols, a DTN node determines whom to forward a packet according to the packet delivery probability. From the viewpoint of a node, the packet delivery probability of another node is degraded while the nodes are disconnected whereas it is improved when they encounter. In this paper, we enhance the algorithm estimating the packet probability by considering the encounter count as an additional parameter. Our algorithm prefers the node that encounters the destination more frequently in selecting the next hop toward the destination. We evaluated the performance of our algorithm by simulating military operations using a DTN-dedicated simulator. Through the simulations, we show that our proposed algorithm achieve higher packet delivery ratio with similar overhead compared with PROPHET.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제29권4B호
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• pp.365-376
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• 2009

조위발생빈도분포가 상이한 우리나라 해역에 위치한 해안구조물의 마루높이를 설정하는 문제에 있어서 조위의 합리적인 취급이 중요하다. 권혁민 등(2005, 2006)은 해역별 기대월파확률 계산결과로서 조위발생빈도분포의 편차가 크면 클수록 작아지는 경향이 명백함을 보였다. 이는 년 단위 조위의 발생빈도분포가 년 최대파고 급의 파 발생빈도분포와 년 중 언제든 조우 할 수 있다는 가정을 내포하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 파와 조위의 조우 가능성을 년 최대 파급의 파가 발생할 수 있는 여름철 또는 겨울철을 대상으로 계절별 일 최대 조위발생빈도분포를 불확정요소로 취급하여 계산했다. 계산결과, 우리나라 전해역의 기대월파확률이 1%미만으로 수렴됨이 확인되어 이를 시나리오로 제안하고자 한다. 본 시나리오에 의하면 기대월파확률이 동일하도록 마루높이의 설정이 우리나라 전 해역을 대상으로 가능함을 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 마루높이는 전 해역에 대하여 계절별 일 최대조위의 평균값으로부터 설정이 가능한 것으로 추정된다.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.37-52
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• 2017

To quantitatively assess the safety against seismic collapse of eccentrically braced steel frame (EBSF) system, 24 typical EBSFs with K-shape and V-shape braces with seismic precautionary intensities 8 and 9 were designed complying with China seismic design code and relative codes to constitute archetype space of this structure system. In the archetype space, the collapse probability of the structural system under maximum considered earthquakes (MCE) was researched. The results show that the structures possess necessary safety against seismic collapse when they respectively encounter the maximum considered earthquakes corresponding to their seismic precautionary levels, and their collapse probabilities increase with increasing seismic precautionary intensities. Moreover, the EBSFs with V-shape braces have smaller collapse probability, thus greater capacity against seismic collapse than those with K-shape braces.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.377-385
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• 2012

The Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) system is a key component of CNS/ATM recommended by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as the next generation air traffic control system. ADS-B broadcasts identification, positional data, and operation information of an aircraft to other aircraft, ground vehicles and ground stations in the nearby region. This paper explores the ADS-B based trajectory prediction and the conflict detection algorithm. The multiple-model based trajectory prediction algorithm leads accurate predicted conflict probability at a future forecast time. We propose an efficient and accurate algorithm to calculate conflict probability based on approximation of the conflict zone by a set of blocks. The performance of proposed algorithms is demonstrated by a numerical simulation of two aircraft encounter scenarios.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2008

This paper presents a real-time algorithm for collision detection, collision avoidance and guidance. Three-dimensional point-mass aircraft models are used. For collision detection, conflict probability is calculated by using the Monte-Carlo Simulation. Time at the closest point of approach(CPA) and distance at CPA are needed to determine the collision probability, being compared to certain threshold values. For collision avoidance, one of possible maneuver options is chosen to minimize the collision probability. For guidance to a designated way-point, proportional navigation guidance law is used. Two scenarios on encounter situation are studied to demonstrate the performance of proposed algorithm.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 1992

Common assumption we frequently encounter in early models of software reliability is that no new faults are introduced during the fault removal process. In real life, however, there are situations in which new faults are introducted as a result of imperfect debugging. This study alleviating this assumption by introducting the probability of perfect error-correction is an extension of Littlewood's work. In this model, the system reliability, failure rates, mean time to failure and average failure frequency are obtained. Here, when the probability of perfect error-correction is one, the results appear identical with those of the previous studies. In the respect that the results of previous studies are special cases of this model, the model developed can be considered as a generalized one.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.462-469
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• 2023

본 논문은 선박이 조우하는 상황에서 충돌의 위험에 대한 판단을 지원하여 충돌사고를 예방하기 위하여 선박충돌위험성을 평가하는 방법을 제안하고자 한다. 선박의 항해는 불확실성이 다수 내포되어 있기 때문에 충돌의 위험을 평가할 때 선박충돌위험성이 가진 불확실성을 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 논문은 불확실성을 처리하고 각 상대 선박의 충돌의 위험을 실시간으로 평가하기 위하여 Dempster-Shafer 이론을 적용한다. 선박충돌위험의 평가 요인으로 DCPA(distance at closest point approach), TCPA(time to closest point approach), 상대 선박과의 거리, 상대방위, 속도비율 등이 사용되며, 각 평가 요인별 멤버쉽 함수로 계산된 기본확률배정함수(basic probability assignment)는 Dempster-Shafer 이론의 융합 규칙을 통하여 융합된다. 선박들이 실제로 조우하는 상황에서 수집된 선박자동식별장치 데이터를 사용하여 제안된 방법을 실험한 결과 평가의 적합성이 검증되었다. 선박간 조우 상황에서의 실시간으로 충돌위험성을 평가함으로써 인적오류로 인한 충돌사고를 예방할 수 있으며, 해상교통관제시스템과 자율운항선박의 충돌회피시스템에도 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Photoscience
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.51-54
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• 2005

The electronic excitationenergy quenching of 2, 5-diphenyl-1, 3, 4-oxadiazole (PPD) by Carbon tetrachloride ($CCl_4$) in different solvents viz, n-hexane, n-heptane, toluene, benzene, cyclohexane, 1, 4- dioxane has been carried out at room temperature to understand the role of quenching mechanism. The Stern-Volmer plots have been found to be linear. As probability of quenching per encounter 'p' is less than unity, and the activation energy for quenching '$E_a$' is greater than the activation energy of diffusion '$E_d$', it is inferred that the fluorescence quenching mechanism is not due to material diffusion alone.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국연소학회 2004년도 제28회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 논문집
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• pp.102-111
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• 2004

Partial quenching structure of turbulent diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer is investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics to develope a prediction model for the turbulent lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the problem of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by adopting level-set method which describes propagating or retreating flame front with specified propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulations with two model problems for the propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for a turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping. The probability to encounter reacting' state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate in contrast to the stiff transition of resulted from the flame-hole random walk mapping and could be attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.