• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical storm simulation

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Methodology for Risk Assessment for Exposure to Hurricane Conditions

  • Edge, Billy L.;Jung, Kwang-Hyo
    • International Journal of Ocean System Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2012
  • An analysis of potential flooding by storm surge and wave run-up and overtopping can be used to evaluate protection afforded by the existing storm protection system. The analysis procedure can also be used to evaluate various protection alternatives for providing typhoon flood protection. To determine risk, the storm surges for both historical and hypothetical are compiled with tide conditions to represent high, slack and low water for neap, spring and mid range tides to use with the statistical procedure known as the Empirical Simulations Technique (EST). The EST uses the historic and hypothetical events to generate a large population of life-cycle databases that are used to compute mean value maximum storm surge elevation frequency relationships. The frequency-of-occurrence relationship is determined for all relevant locations along the shoreline at appropriate locations to identify the effect using the Empirical Storm Simulation (EST). To assist with understanding the process, an example is presented for a study of storm surge analysis for Freeport, Texas. This location is in the Gulf of Mexico and is subject to hurricanes and other tropical storms that approach from the Atlantic Ocean.

Extreme Sea Level Analysis in Coastal Waters around Korean Peninsula Using Empirical Simulation Technique (경험모의기법을 이용한 한반도 주변 해역에서의 극치해면 분석)

  • Suh, Kyung-Duck;Yang, Young-Chul;Jun, Ki-Chun;Lee, Dong-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.254-265
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    • 2009
  • The estimation of the extreme sea level is necessary in the design of offshore or coastal structures. In this paper, the storm surge data calculated numerically at 52 harbors around the Korean Peninsula are analyzed by using annual maximum series(AMS), peaks over threshold(POT) and empirical simulation technique(EST). The maximum likelihood method was used to estimate the parameters in both AMS and POT models. The Generalized Pareto distribution was used and Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were performed with the acceptable significance level 5%. The extreme sea levels were also evaluated by EST including tide effect, showing similar results as given by Jeong et al.(2008).

Estimation of Frequency of Storm Surge Heights on the West and South Coasts of Korea Using Synthesized Typhoons (확률론적 합성태풍을 이용한 서남해안 빈도 해일고 산정)

  • Kim, HyeonJeong;Suh, SeungWon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.241-252
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    • 2019
  • To choose appropriate countermeasures against potential coastal disaster damages caused by a storm surge, it is necessary to estimate the frequency of storm surge heights estimation. As the coastal populations size in the past was small, the tropical cyclone risk model (TCRM) was used to generate 176,689 synthetic typhoons. In simulation, historical paths and central pressures were incorporated as a probability density function. Moreover, to consider the typhoon characteristics that resurfaced or decayed after landfall on the southeast coast of China, incorporated the shift angle of the historical typhoon as a function of the probability density function and applied it as a damping parameter. Thus, the passing rate of typhoons moving from the southeast coast of China to the south coast has improved. The characteristics of the typhoon were analyzed from the historical typhoon information using correlations between the central pressure, maximum wind speed ($V_{max}$) and the maximum wind speed radius ($R_{max}$); it was then applied to synthetic typhoons. The storm surges were calculated using the ADCIRC model, considering both tidal and synthetic typhoons using automated Perl script. The storm surges caused by the probabilistic synthetic typhoons appear similar to the recorded storm surges, therefore this proposed scheme can be applied to the storm surge simulations. Based on these results, extreme values were calculated using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) method, and as a result, the 100-year return period storm surge was found to be satisfactory compared with the calculated empirical simulation value. The method proposed in this study can be applied to estimate the frequency of storm surges in coastal areas.

A Study on urban runoff by deter ministic simulation techniques. (확정론적 모의기법에 의한 도시유출 해석에 관한 연구)

  • 이은영;강관원
    • Water for future
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 1982
  • In the past, the design flow of the urban storm drainage systems has been used largely on a basis of empirical and experience, and the rational formula one of empirical method has been widely used for our country, as well as world wide. But the empirical method has insufficient factor because minimal consideration is given to the relationship of the parameters in the equation to the processes being considered, and considerable use of experience and judgment in setting values to the coefficients in the equation is made. The postcomputer era of hydrology has brought an acceleration development of mathematical methods, thus mathematical models are methods which will greatly increase our understanding in hydrology. On this study, a simple mathematical model of urban presented by British Road Research Laboratory is tested on urban watersheds in Ju An Ju Gong Apartment. The basin is located in Kan Seog Dong, Inchon. The model produces a runoff hydrograph by applying rain all to only the directly connected impervious area of the basin. To apply this model the basin is divided into contributing areas or subbasins. With this information the time area for contributing is derived. The rainfall hyetograph to design storm for the basin flow has been obtained by determination of total rainfall and the temporal distribution of that rainfall determined on the basis of Huff's method form historical rainfall data of the basin. The inflows from several subbaisns are successively routed down the network of reaches from the upstream end to the outlet. A simple storage routing technique is used which involves the use of the Manning equation to compute the stage discharge curve for the cross-section in question. To apply the model to a basin, the pattern of impervious areas must be known in detail, as well as the slopes and sizes of all surface and subsurface drains.

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A Study on Hydrologic Analysis and Some Effects of Urbanization on Design Flow of Urban Storm Drainage Systems (1) (도시 하수도망의 수문학적인 평가와 설계확률유량의 점대화 성향에 관한 연구(제1보))

  • 강관원;서병하;윤용남
    • Water for future
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1981
  • The design flow of the urban strom drainage systems has been assessed largely on a basis of empirical relations between rainfall and runoff, and the rational formula has been widely used for the cities in our country. In order to estimate it more accurately, the urban runoff simulation model based on the RRl method has been developed and applied to the sample basin in this study. The rainfall hyetograph of the design stromfor the design flow has been obtained by the determination of the total rainfall and the temporal distributions of that rainfall. The total rainfall has been assessed from the empirical formula of rainfall intensity and the temporal distribution of that rainfall determined on the basis of Huff's method from the historical rainfall data of the basin. The virtual inflow hydrograph to each inlet of the basin has been constructed by computing the series of discharges in each time increment, using design strom hyetograph and time-area diagram. The actual runoff hydrograph at the basin outlet has been computed from the virtual inflow hydrographs by developing a relations between discharge and storage for the watershed. The discharge data for verification of the simulated runoff hydrograph are not available in the sample basin and so the sensitivity analysis of the simulation model has not been possible. The peak discharge for the design of drainage systems has been estimated from the computed runoff hydrograph at the basin outlet and compared to thatl obtained form the rational formula.

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Criteria for calculation of CSO volume and frequency using rainfall-runoff model (우수유출 모형을 이용한 합류식하수관로시스템의 월류량, 월류빈도 산정 기준 결정 연구)

  • Lee, Gunyoung;Na, Yongun;Ryu, Jaena;Oh, Jeill
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.313-324
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    • 2013
  • It is widely known that untreated Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs) that directly discharged from receiving water have a negative impact. Recent concerns on the CSO problem have produced several large scale constructions of treatment facilities, but the facilities are normally designed under empirical design criteria. In this study, several criteria for defining CSOs (e.g. determination of effective rainfall, sampling time, minimum duration of data used for rainfall-runoff simulation and so on) were investigated. Then this study suggested a standard methodology for the CSO calculation and support formalized standard on the design criteria for CSO facilities. Criteria decided for an effective rainfall was over 0.5 mm of total rainfall depth and at least 4 hours should be exist between two different events. An Antecedent dry weather period prior to storm event to satisfy the effective rainfall criteria was over 3 days. Sampling time for the rainfall-runoff model simulation was suggested as 1 hour. A duration of long-term simulation CSO overflow and frequency calculation should be at least recent 10 year data. A Management plan for the CSOs should be established under a phase-in of the plan. That should reflect site-specific conditions of different catchments, and formalized criteria for defining CSOs should be used to examine the management plans.