• Title/Summary/Keyword: Empirical modelling

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Forecasting the Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Pacific by Neural Network Model (신경망 모델을 이용한 적도 태평양 표층 수온 예측)

  • Chang You-Soon;Lee Da-Un;Seo Jang-Won;Youn Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.268-275
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    • 2005
  • One of the nonlinear statistical modelling, neural network method was applied to predict the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino regions, which represent El Nino indices. The data used as inputs in the training step of neural network model were the first seven empirical orthogonal functions in the tropical Pacific $(120^{\circ}\;E,\;20^{\circ}\;S-20^{\circ}\;N)$ obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The period of 1951 to 1993 was adopted for the training of neural network model, and the period 1994 to 2003 for the forecasting validation. Forecasting results suggested that neural network models were resonable for SSTA forecasting until 9-month lead time. They also predicted greatly the development and decay of strong E1 Nino occurred in 1997-1998 years. Especially, Nino3 region appeared to be the best forecast region, while the forecast skills rapidly decreased since 9-month lead time. However, in the Nino1+2 region where they are relatively low by the influence of local effects, they did not decrease even after 9-month lead time.

Spatial Distribution Patterns of Twitter Data with Topic Modeling (토픽 모델링을 이용한 트위터 데이터의 공간 분포 패턴 분석)

  • Woo, Hyun Jee;Kim, Young Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.376-387
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    • 2017
  • This paper attempts to analyze the geographical characters of Twitter data and presents analysis potentials for social network analysis in geography. First, this paper suggests a methodology for a topic modeling-based approach in order to identify the geographical characteristics of tweets, including an analysis flow of Twitter data sets, tweet data collection and conversion, textural pre-processing and structural analysis, topic discovery, and interpretation of tweets' topics. GPS coordinates referencing tweets(geotweets) were extracted among sampled Twitter data sets because it contains the tweet place where it was created. This paper identifies a correlated relationship between some specific topics and local places in Jeju. This correlation is closely associated with some place names and local sites in Jeju Island. We assume it is the intention of tweeters to record their tweet places and to share and retweet with other tweeters in some cases. A surface density map shows the hotspots of tweets, detecting around some specific places and sites such as Jeju airport, sightseeing sites, and local places in Jeju Island. The hotspots show similar patterns of the floating population of Jeju, especially the thirty-year age group. In addition, a topic modeling algorithm is applied for the geographical topic discovery and comparison of the spatial patterns of tweets. Finally, this empirical analysis presents that Twitter data, as social network data, provide geographical significance, with topic modeling approach being useful in analyzing the textural features reflecting the geographical characteristics in large data sets of tweets.

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Study of Rip Current Warning Index Function Varied according to Real-time Observations (실시간 관측정보에 따른 이안류 경보 지수함수 연구)

  • Choi, Junwoo;Lim, Chae Ho;Yoon, Sung Bum
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.477-490
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    • 2013
  • A rip-current warning index function, which is estimated from the likelihood of rip current quantified based on numerical simulations under various sea environments and is varied according to real-time buoy-observations, was studied to help protect against rip current accidents at Haeundae beach. For the quantification, the definition of likelihood of rip current, which proposed by Choi et al. (2011, 2012b), was employed and estimated based on Boussinesq modelling. The distribution of likelihood of rip current was evaluated by using various simulations according to scenarios established based on physical quantities(i.e., wave parameters) of buoy-observations. To index the likelihood of rip current, empirical functions were derived based on the distribution and adjusted to observational environments. In this study, the observations from June to September in 2011 at Haeundae beach were applied to the rip-current index functions, and its applications into the real events found based on CCTV images were presented and investigated. In addition, limitations and improvements of the rip-current index function were discussed.

Analyzing the Relationship between Dynamic Capability of Project-Based Organization and the Competitive Advantage in the E&C Companies (프로젝트 조직의 동적역량과 건설기업 경쟁우위와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Jin, Sangjoon;Oh, Minjeong;Kim, Seungchul
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2019
  • Since the beginning of a new century, many Korean construction and engineering companies are facing a very dynamic and fast changing business environment which includes severe competition, higher risk, economic depression, declining revenues and profits, etc. In order to cope with these challenges, they need to secure special capabilities to actively adapt to the paradigm changes. One of those capabilities could be project management capability which allows us to manage organizational resources dynamically and integratively based on project portfolio management concept. The objective of this study is to investigate how the dynamic capability of a project-based organization to control the resource affects the firm performance and the competitive advantages. Data was collected from the construction and engineering companies in South Korea by using survey questionnaire, and analyzed for empirical tests by using statistical methods such as structural equation modelling and path analysis. The results showed that the organizational resources, if they had the VRIN characteristics, would have positive impacts on creating the dynamic capabilities for project organization. In turn, the dynamic capabilities of a project organization would have impacts on improving business performance and creating competitive advantages. Also, it was found that the organizational resources may have direct impact on business performance and competitive advantages. The academic contribution of this study is that it attempts to integrate resource based view and the dynamic capability theory about creating competitive advantages for project based organization. This study also provided practical implications to the companies in construction industry by showing how to use organizational resources strategically to create competitive advantages.

The Estimation of Arctic Air Temperature in Summer Based on Machine Learning Approaches Using IABP Buoy and AMSR2 Satellite Data (기계학습 기반의 IABP 부이 자료와 AMSR2 위성영상을 이용한 여름철 북극 대기 온도 추정)

  • Han, Daehyeon;Kim, Young Jun;Im, Jungho;Lee, Sanggyun;Lee, Yeonsu;Kim, Hyun-cheol
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_2
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    • pp.1261-1272
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    • 2018
  • It is important to measure the Arctic surface air temperature because it plays a key-role in the exchange of energy between the ocean, sea ice, and the atmosphere. Although in-situ observations provide accurate measurements of air temperature, they are spatially limited to show the distribution of Arctic surface air temperature. In this study, we proposed machine learning-based models to estimate the Arctic surface air temperature in summer based on buoy data and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2)satellite data. Two machine learning approaches-random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM)-were used to estimate the air temperature twice a day according to AMSR2 observation time. Both RF and SVM showed $R^2$ of 0.84-0.88 and RMSE of $1.31-1.53^{\circ}C$. The results were compared to the surface air temperature and spatial distribution of the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They tended to underestimate the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Baffin Bay region where no IABP buoy observations exist. This study showed both possibility and limitations of the empirical estimation of Arctic surface temperature using AMSR2 data.

Evaluation of Local Effect Prediction Formulas for RC Slabs Subjected to Impact Loading (충격하중이 작용하는 RC 슬래브의 국부손상 산정식에 대한 고찰)

  • Chung, Chul-Hun;Choi, Hyun;Lee, Jung Whee;Choi, Kang Ryong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6A
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    • pp.543-560
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    • 2010
  • Safety-related concrete structures in a nuclear power plant must be protected against the impact of flying objects, referred to in the profession as missiles. In practice, the structural verification is usually carried out by means of empirical formulas, which relate the velocity of the impinging missile to the wall thickness needed to prevent scabbing or perforation. The purpose of this study is to reevaluate the predictability of the local effect prediction formulas for the penetration and scabbing depths and perforation thickness. Therefore, available formulas for predicting the penetration depth, scabbing thickness, and perforation thickness of concrete structures impacted by solid missiles are summarized, reviewed, and compared. A series of impact analyses is performed to predict the local effects of the projectile at impact velocities varing from 95 to 215 m/s. The results obtained from the numerical simulations have been compared with tests that were carried out at Kojima to validate numerical modelling. The simulation results show reasonable agreement with the Kojima test results for the overall impact response of the RC slabs. From these results, it seems that the Degen equation give a very good estimate of perforation thickness against a tornado projectile for test data. Finally, the results obtained from the impact analysis have been compared with Degen formula to determine the perforation thickness of the RC slab.

Analysis of Influential Factors in the Relationship between Innovation Efforts Based on the Company's Environment and Company Performance: Focus on Small and Medium-sized ICT Companies (기업의 환경적 특성에 따른 혁신활동과 기업성과간 영향요인 분석: ICT분야 중소기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eun-jung;Roh, Doo-hwan;Park, Ho-young
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.107-143
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to understand the impact of internal and external environments and innovation efforts on a company's performance. First, the relationships and patterns between variables were determined through an exploratory factor analysis. Afterwards, a cluster analysis was conducted, in which the influential factors summarized in the factor analysis were classified. Finally, structural equation modeling was used to carry out an empirical analysis of the structural relationship between innovation efforts and the company's performance in the classified clusters. 7 factors were derived from the exploratory factor analysis of 40 input variables from external and internal environments. 4 clusters (n=1,022) were formed based on the 7 factors. Empirical analysis of the 4 clusters using structural equation modelling showed the following: Only independent technology development had a positive impact on the company's performance for Cluster 1, which is characterized by sensitivity to a technological/competitive environment and innovativeness. Only independent technology development and joint research had positive impacts on the company's performance for Cluster 2, which is characterized by sensitivity to a market environment and internal orientation. Joint research and the mediating variable of government support program utilization had positive impacts, while the introduction of technology had a negative impact on the company's performance for Cluster 3, which is characterized by sensitivity to a competitive environment, innovativeness, and willingness to cooperate with the government and related institutions. Independent technology development as well as the mediating variables of network utilization and government support program utilization had positive impacts on the company's performance for Cluster 4, which is characterized by openness and external cooperation.

Predicting N2O Emission from Upland Cultivated with Pepper through Related Soil Parameters (온실가스 배출 파라메타를 이용한 고추밭 토양의 N2O 배출 예측)

  • Kim, Gun-Yeob;Song, Beom-Heon;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Shim, Kyo-Moon;Lee, Jeong-Taek;Lee, Jong-Sik;Kim, Won-Il;Shin, Joung-Du
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.253-258
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    • 2006
  • An empirical model of nitrous oxide emission from agricultural soil has been applied. It is based on the relationship between $N_2O$ and three soil parameters, soil mineral N(ammonium plus nitrate) content in the topsoil(0-15cm), soil water-field pore space, and soil temperature, determined in a study on clay loam and sandy loam at the pepper field in 2004. For comparisons between estimated and observed values of $N_2O$ emissions in the pepper field, it was investigated that $N_2O$ amount in the clay loam and sandy loam were overestimated as 12.2% and less estimated as 30%, respectively. However, $N_2O$ emissions were overestimated as 27.1% in the clay loam and 14.7% in the sandy loam from $N_2O$ gas samples collected once a week at the same time analyzing soil parameters. This modelling approach, based as it is well established and widely used soil measurements, has the potential to provide flux estimates from a much wider range of agricultural sites than would be possible by direct measurement of $N_2O$ emissions.

An Empirical Study on Statistical Optimization Model for the Portfolio Construction of Sponsored Search Advertising(SSA) (키워드검색광고 포트폴리오 구성을 위한 통계적 최적화 모델에 대한 실증분석)

  • Yang, Hognkyu;Hong, Juneseok;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.167-194
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    • 2019
  • This research starts from the four basic concepts of incentive incompatibility, limited information, myopia and decision variable which are confronted when making decisions in keyword bidding. In order to make these concept concrete, four framework approaches are designed as follows; Strategic approach for the incentive incompatibility, Statistical approach for the limited information, Alternative optimization for myopia, and New model approach for decision variable. The purpose of this research is to propose the statistical optimization model in constructing the portfolio of Sponsored Search Advertising (SSA) in the Sponsor's perspective through empirical tests which can be used in portfolio decision making. Previous research up to date formulates the CTR estimation model using CPC, Rank, Impression, CVR, etc., individually or collectively as the independent variables. However, many of the variables are not controllable in keyword bidding. Only CPC and Rank can be used as decision variables in the bidding system. Classical SSA model is designed on the basic assumption that the CPC is the decision variable and CTR is the response variable. However, this classical model has so many huddles in the estimation of CTR. The main problem is the uncertainty between CPC and Rank. In keyword bid, CPC is continuously fluctuating even at the same Rank. This uncertainty usually raises questions about the credibility of CTR, along with the practical management problems. Sponsors make decisions in keyword bids under the limited information, and the strategic portfolio approach based on statistical models is necessary. In order to solve the problem in Classical SSA model, the New SSA model frame is designed on the basic assumption that Rank is the decision variable. Rank is proposed as the best decision variable in predicting the CTR in many papers. Further, most of the search engine platforms provide the options and algorithms to make it possible to bid with Rank. Sponsors can participate in the keyword bidding with Rank. Therefore, this paper tries to test the validity of this new SSA model and the applicability to construct the optimal portfolio in keyword bidding. Research process is as follows; In order to perform the optimization analysis in constructing the keyword portfolio under the New SSA model, this study proposes the criteria for categorizing the keywords, selects the representing keywords for each category, shows the non-linearity relationship, screens the scenarios for CTR and CPC estimation, selects the best fit model through Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) test, formulates the optimization models, confirms the Spillover effects, and suggests the modified optimization model reflecting Spillover and some strategic recommendations. Tests of Optimization models using these CTR/CPC estimation models are empirically performed with the objective functions of (1) maximizing CTR (CTR optimization model) and of (2) maximizing expected profit reflecting CVR (namely, CVR optimization model). Both of the CTR and CVR optimization test result show that the suggested SSA model confirms the significant improvements and this model is valid in constructing the keyword portfolio using the CTR/CPC estimation models suggested in this study. However, one critical problem is found in the CVR optimization model. Important keywords are excluded from the keyword portfolio due to the myopia of the immediate low profit at present. In order to solve this problem, Markov Chain analysis is carried out and the concept of Core Transit Keyword (CTK) and Expected Opportunity Profit (EOP) are introduced. The Revised CVR Optimization model is proposed and is tested and shows validity in constructing the portfolio. Strategic guidelines and insights are as follows; Brand keywords are usually dominant in almost every aspects of CTR, CVR, the expected profit, etc. Now, it is found that the Generic keywords are the CTK and have the spillover potentials which might increase consumers awareness and lead them to Brand keyword. That's why the Generic keyword should be focused in the keyword bidding. The contribution of the thesis is to propose the novel SSA model based on Rank as decision variable, to propose to manage the keyword portfolio by categories according to the characteristics of keywords, to propose the statistical modelling and managing based on the Rank in constructing the keyword portfolio, and to perform empirical tests and propose a new strategic guidelines to focus on the CTK and to propose the modified CVR optimization objective function reflecting the spillover effect in stead of the previous expected profit models.

Marketing Standardization and Firm Performance in International E.Commerce (국제전자상무중적영소표준화화공사표현(国际电子商务中的营销标准化和公司表现))

  • Fritz, Wolfgang;Dees, Heiko
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.37-48
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    • 2009
  • The standardization of marketing has been one of the most focused research topics in international marketing. The term "global marketing" was often used to mean an internationally standardized marketing strategy based on similarities between foreign markets. Marketing standardization was discussed only within the context of traditional physical marketplaces. Since then, the digital "marketspace" of the Internet had emerged in the 90's, and it became one of the most important drivers of the globalization process opening new opportunities for the standardization of global marketing activities. On the other hand, the opinion that a greater adoption of the Internet by customers may lead to a higher degree of customization and differentiation of products rather than standardization is also quite popular. Considering this disagreement, it is notable that comprehensive studies which focus upon the marketing standardization especially in the context of global e-commerce are missing to a high degree. On this background, the two basic research questions being addressed in this study are: (1) To what extent do companies standardize their marketing in international e-commerce? (2) Is there an impact of marketing standardization on the performance (or success) of these companies? Following research hypotheses were generated based upon literature review: H 1: Internationally engaged e-commerce firms show a growing readiness for marketing standardization. H 2: Marketing standardization exerts positive effects on the success of companies in international e-commerce. H 3: In international e-commerce, marketing mix standardization exerts a stronger positive effect on the economic as well as the non-economic success of companies than marketing process standardization. H 4: The higher the non-economic success in international e-commerce firms, the higher the economic success. The data for this research were obtained from a questionnaire survey conducted from February to April 2005. The international e-commerce companies of various industries in Germany and all subsidiaries or headquarters of foreign e-commerce companies based in Germany were included in the survey. 118 out of 801 companies responded to the questionnaire. For structural equation modelling (SEM), the Partial-Least. Squares (PLS) approach in the version PLS-Graph 3.0 was applied (Chin 1998a; 2001). All of four research hypotheses were supported by result of data analysis. The results show that companies engaged in international e-commerce standardize in particular brand name, web page design, product positioning, and the product program to a high degree. The companies intend to intensify their efforts for marketing mix standardization in the future. In addition they want to standardize their marketing processes also to a higher degree, especially within the range of information systems, corporate language and online marketing control procedures. In this study, marketing standardization exerts a positive overall impact on company performance in international e-commerce. Standardization of marketing mix exerts a stronger positive impact on the non-economic success than standardization of marketing processes, which in turn contributes slightly stronger to the economic success. Furthermore, our findings give clear support to the assumption that the non-economic success is highly relevant to the economic success of the firm in international e-commerce. The empirical findings indicate that marketing standardization is relevant to the companies' success in international e-commerce. But marketing mix and marketing process standardization contribute to the firms' economic and non-economic success in different ways. The findings indicate that companies do standardize numerous elements of their marketing mix on the Internet. This practice is in part contrary to the popular concept of a "differentiated standardization" which argues that some elements of the marketing mix should be adapted locally and others should be standardized internationally. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the overall standardization of marketing -rather than the standardization of one particular marketing mix element - is what brings about a positive overall impact on success.

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