• JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL WORLD
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• no.10 s.154
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• pp.16-22
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• 1989

• International journal of advanced smart convergence
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.59-65
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• 2021

Electricity contributes to the development of the economy. Therefore, forecasting electricity demand plays an important role in the development of the electricity industry in particular and the economy in general. This study aims to provide a precise model for long-term electricity demand forecast in the residential sector by using three independent variables include: Population, Electricity price, Average annual income per capita; and the dependent variable is yearly electricity consumption. Based on the support of Multiple variable regression, the proposed method established a model with variables that relate to the forecast by ignoring variables that do not affect lead to forecasting errors. The proposed forecasting model was validated using historical data from Vietnam in the period 2013 and 2020. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, we presents a five-year demand forecast for the residential sector in Vietnam. When demand forecasts are performed using the predicted variables, the R square value measures model fit is up to 99.6% and overall accuracy (MAPE) of around 0.92% is obtained over the period 2018-2020. The proposed model indicates the population's impact on total national electricity demand.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.11a
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• pp.137.1-137.1
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• 2010

For Indonesia, sustainable energy supply is an important factor to preserve the stable economic growth. One important strategy is development of renewable energy, which has not been fully exploited yet. The paper examines the potency of renewable energy in Indonesia. Currently, biomass composes 23% of total primary energy supply, while geothermal and hydropower has a combined share of 3%. But according to the overall potency of renewable energy, hydropower is found to have the highest available resource of 76 GW, followed by biomass and geothermal by 49.81 GW and 28.53 GW, respectively. Although the solar radiation is only at modest level ($4.80kWh/m^2/day$), the tropical all year sunlight can boost the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic and thermal application. As for wind energy, the average speed of 3-6 m/s requires the development of low speed wind turbine. The examination of electricity and petroleum product prices through international comparison for non-OECD countries shows fifth lowest price level for both of petroleum products and electricity for industrial use. As for household electricity price, Indonesia is placed the second among all the countries compared. The energy subsidy and price structure are examined in detail because it could be a source of hindrance to renewable energy promotion. The examination of renewable energy potency in this study could provide insights about recent development of renewable energy in Indonesia. As an outcome of policy examination, the price comparison analysis suggests Indonesia to reduce or even remove the energy subsidies in the long run. These findings can be utilized to formulate effective policies for renewable energy promotion.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.99-127
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• 2007

When the margin between available capacity and demand is thin in a liberalized electricity market, prices rise steeply and system reliability is threatened. The principal response to these circumstances is often an assumption that price spikes and electricity shortages are the result of a failure to build sufficient new supplying facilities. It is, of course, often the case that additional investments in generation and network facilities would improve reliability, and such investments are often needed. But focusing on additional generation and transmission facilities for restoring balance to the grid overlooks the essential fact that reliability is a function of the relationship between supply and demand, imposing unnecessary costs on electric system. When the relationship is out of balance, the search for solutions must consider not only investments supply-side resources but also cost-effective demand-side resources such as accelerated load management, efficiency measures, and price-responsive load programs. Integrating demand resources into electricity markets can add enormous value to the electric system, widening the capacity margin, lowering costs and enhancing system reliability at the same time. This paper studies several challenges now facing electricity markets: demand-side management-especially, economic effects of demand response, potential reliability problems, market and system operation, CBP market improvements and so on. The paper concludes with a series of policy recommendations in five areas: (i) The Effects of efficient improvement to incorporate demand responses and demand-side resources into modem electricity markets, (ii) Fosteing price based demand response and (iii) improving incentive based demand response, (iv) strengthen demand response analysis and valuation, (v) integrating demand response into resource planning and adopting enabling technologies.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• v.5A no.2
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• pp.193-198
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• 2005

This paper proposes a new method to handle transmission line losses using loss distribution factors (LDF) rather than marginal loss factors (MLF) in electricity market operation. Under a competitive electricity market, the bidding data are adjusted to reflect transmission line losses. To date the most proposed approach is using MLFs. The MLFs are reflected to bidding prices and market clearing price during the trading and settlement of the electricity market. In the proposed algorithm, the LDFs are reflected to bidding quantities and actual generations/ loads. Computer simulations on a 9-bus sample system will verify the effectiveness of the algorithm proposed. Moreover, the proposed approach using LDFs does not make any payments residual while the approach using MLFs induces payments residual.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.43-58
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• 2019

Since 2009, electricity consumption has developed a unique seasonal pattern in South Korea. Winter loads have sharply increased, and they eventually exceeded summer peaks. This trend reversal distinguishes these load patterns from those in the USA and the EU, where annual peaks are observed during the summer months. Using Levene's test, we show statistical evidence of a rise in temperature but a decrease in variance over time regardless of the season. Despite the overall increase in the temperature, regardless of the season there should be another cause of the increased demand for electricity in winter. With the present study using data from 1991 to 2012, we provide empirical evidence that relatively low electricity prices regulated by the government have contributed significantly to the rapid upward change in electricity consumption, specifically during the winter months in the commercial sector in Korea.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.41 no.9
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• pp.994-1002
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• 1992

With regard to price elasticity and cross elasticity of electricity, optimal generation expansion planning method including load management effect is suggested. In addition, optimal peak time price can be determined simultaneously, and we adopt peak time tariff as load management strategy. Instead of using hourly marginal demand curves where we can get customer surplus, we used chronological load curve with constraints to preserve social welfare. This method is proved useful in short-term generation expansion planning.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.560-568
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• 2005

The cost accounting of electricity and heat produced from an energy system is important in evaluating the economical efficiency and deciding the reasonable sale price. The OECOPC method, suggested by the author, was applied to a 650 MW combined cycle cogeneration system having 4 operating modes, and each unit cost of electricity and heat products was calculated. In case that a fuel cost is ${\\}400/kg$ and there are no direct and indirect cost, they were calculated as follows; electricity cost of ${\\}23,700/GJ$ at gas-turbine mode, electricity cost of ${\\}15,890/GJ$ at combined cycle mode, electricity cost of ${\\}14,146/GJ$ and heat cost of ${\\}6,466/GJ$ at cogeneration mode, and electricity cost of ${\\}14,387/GJ$ and heat cost of ${\\}4,421/GJ$ at combined cycle cogeneration mode. Further, these unit costs are applied to account benefit on this system. Since the suggested OECOPC method can be applied to any energy system, it is expected to contribute to cost accounting of various energy systems.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.269-275
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• 2002

Recently, Korea's electric industry has experienced substantial changes in its structure and function including the introduction of competition in the generation sector. Korea is in the early stages of market competition where the market price is determined by generation costs. In the future, the market Price will be determined by generators'bids. Therefore, the generators'profit is determined by market pool price, the prospects of pool price are very important for new capacity investment decision made by generators and IPPS. This study analyzes hourly marginal costs and LOLP considering basic generation mix and characteristics develops the relationship of pool price and Profit by generation-type using the change in reserve margin, and proposes basic direction for profits variation and supply-demand analysis in the electricity market in future.