• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.79-106
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• 2019

Local governments within the boundaries of a state need increasing flexibility to satisfy diverse economic, social, and environmental goals in their particular geographical setting. However, many candidates in the local election in South Korea tend to see local politics as an extension of national-level politics. In particular, this paper mainly deals with how the voters' evaluation of a president's performance has influenced subnational elections in South Korea. Our analysis suggests that the fate of candidates in subnational elections is shaped by the performance of the incumbent president in both economic development and foreign affairs.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.10
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• pp.147-156
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• 2023

Electronic voting machines (EVMs) are replacing research ballots due to the errors involved in the manual counting process and the lengthy time required to count the votes. Even though these digital recording electronic systems are advancements, they are vulnerable to tampering and electoral fraud. The suspected vulnerabilities in EVMs are the possibility of tampering with the EVM's memory chip or replacing it with a fake one, their simplicity, which allows them to be tampered with without requiring much skill, and the possibility of double voting. The vote data is shared among all network devices, and peer-to-peer verification is performed to ensure the vote data's authenticity. To successfully tamper with the system, all of the data stored in the nodes must be changed. This improves the proposed system's efficiency and dependability. Elections and voting are fundamental components of a democratic system. Various attempts have been made to make modern elections more flexible by utilizing digital technologies. The fundamental characteristics of free and fair elections are intractability, immutability, transparency, and the privacy of the actors involved. This corresponds to a few of the many characteristics of blockchain-like decentralized ownership, such as chain immutability, anonymity, and distributed ledger. This working research attempts to conduct a comparative analysis of various blockchain technologies in development and propose a 'Blockchain-based Electronic Voting System' solution by weighing these technologies based on the need for the proposed solution. The primary goal of this research is to present a robust blockchain-based election mechanism that is not only reliable but also adaptable to current needs.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.145-156
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• 2011

The study is to analyze voting behaviors revealed through the June 2 local elections, and to learn their implications by exploring and comparing the main factors that influence how to recognize and select a candidate. To achieve this, in-depth interviews have been conducted focusing on those who voted in the last election. The analysis shows that most respondents regard their political tendencies as moderate and make decisions on whom to vote for 2 to 3 days prior to election. It also indicates that what party candidates belong to is the highest motivation in deciding for whom to vote and they generally vote as they believe. According to the study, not only do the poll's results hardly affect their choice of candidates, but also the polls turn out significantly different from the actual results. The great gap between the polls and the actual outcome signifies that how to conduct a poll is wrong and people intend to conceal their opinions. While the media has had a decisive effect on the image of candidates, it is through promotional materials for political campaigns that the candidates' policy is recognized. The study also says that the Four-River is the most influential political issue in election. The study identifies voters' behavior specifically and in depth, and suggests some lessons to make use of for the future elections.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.285-301
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• 2018

There have been many studies that applied a data-driven analysis method to social media data, and some have even argued that this method can replace traditional polls. However, some other studies show contradictory results. There seems to be no consensus as to the methodology of data collection and analysis. But as social media-based election research continues and the data collection and analysis methodology keep developing, we need to review the key points of the controversy and to identify ways to go forward. Although some previous studies have reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of the social media-based election studies, they focused on predictive performance and did not adequately address other studies that utilized social media to address other issues related with public opinion during elections, such as public agenda or information diffusion. This paper tries to find out what information we can get by utilizing social media data and what limitations social media data has. Also, we review the various attempts to overcome these limitations. Finally, we suggest how we can best utilize social media data in understanding public opinion during elections.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.21-36
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• 2009

This study suggests the applicability of web surveys regarding elections in order to contact a great number of young people. The propensity weighting model was estimated using the demographic variables and the covariate variables collected during the 2007 presidential election surveys. In order to adjust the internet survey to the telephone survey, we used the propensity score method. Propensity score weighting made the internet survey results closer to the telephone survey results. This shows that an internet survey with propensity weighting model is a potential alternative survey method in the prediction of elections.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.21-29
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• 2012

Mobile voting can reduce the costs spent in elections, and it can encourage people to participate in the elections more actively because it allows them to vote anytime at anywhere. The trial of mobile voting in 2012 by Democratic United Party in Korea, showed the possibilities of mobile democracy but it also showed very critical problems such as illegal voting by proxy, source code open, open to nationwide for local parliamentary candidate ballot, privacy and hacking. In this paper, we analyze the result of the mobile ballot trial, and introduce the problems that has been revealed. After that we propose some system requirements for the new mobile voting system to prevent the problems according to the stages of voting: system development, voting stage, and counting and validating stage. At each stage, there are several requirements to be met for reliable mobile voting. Our research contribute to mobile democracy and implementation of mobile voting systems in that we analyzed the real case and raised issues for the real problems.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2014.11a
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• pp.928-931
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• 2014

The detection of human behavior from social media revolutionized health, business, criminal and political prediction. Significance of it, in incentive transformation of public opinion had already proven for developed countries in improving democratic process of elections. In $3^{rd}$ World countries, voters poll votes for personal interests being unaware of party manifesto or national interest. These issues can be addressed by social media, resulting as ongoing process of improvement for presently adopted electoral procedures. On the optimistic side, people of such countries applied social media to garner support and campaign for political parties in General Elections. Political leaders, parties, and people empowered themselves with social media, in disseminating party's agenda and advocacy of party's ideology on social media without much campaigning cost. To study effectiveness of social media inferred from individual's political behavior, large scale analysis, sentiment detection & tweet classification was done in order to classify, predict and forecast election results. The experimental results depicts that social media content can be used as an effective indicator for capturing political behaviors of different parties positive, negative and neutral behavior of the party followers as well as party campaign impact can be predicted from the analysis.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.25-33
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• 2021

Purpose: This paper estimates the impact of the epidemic crisis on election outcomes through investigating the effect of Covid19 crisis on election results of 21st General Election held in April 15th 2020 in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: This study employs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using district-level data from Seoul and Gyeonggi province available at National election data in Korea. Results: Despite the current crisis in Korea, Covid-19 has had positive effects on voter turnout on average, after controlling for other factors. On the other hand, the effect of Covid-19 on the voter turnout was negative in districts with a larger aging population and higher health insurance premiums. In addition, Covid-19 negatively impacted vote shares for the incumbent party, while its rival party saw gains in their votes. Conclusion: The effect of Covid-19 election outcomes in Korea is distinct from other countries due to the nationwide acknowledgment of the Korean government's achievement in managing the epidemic. This implies that the crisis management ability of a government is crucial in gaining support for an incumbent party in future elections. Countries facing upcoming elections need to implement acceptable Covid-19 restriction policies as well as economic support for compensation to reap similar benefits.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.261-272
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a procedure to build a prediction interval of the sum of dependent binary random variables over a graph to account for the dependence among binary variables. Our main interest is to find a prediction interval of the weighted sum of dependent binary random variables indexed by a graph. This problem is motivated by the prediction problem of various elections including Korean National Assembly and US presidential election. Traditional and popular approaches to construct the prediction interval of the seats won by major parties are normal approximation by the CLT and Monte Carlo method by generating many independent Bernoulli random variables assuming that those binary random variables are independent and the success probabilities are known constants. However, in practice, the survey results (also the exit polls) on the election are random and hardly independent to each other. They are more often spatially correlated random variables. To take this into account, we suggest a spatial auto-regressive (AR) model for the surveyed success probabilities, and propose a residual based bootstrap procedure to construct the prediction interval of the sum of the binary outcomes. Finally, we apply the procedure to building the prediction intervals of the number of legislative seats won by each party from the exit poll data in the $19^{th}$ and $20^{th}$ Korea National Assembly elections.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.121-144
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• 2018

The year 2016 in Cambodia witnessed the collapse of Cambodian democracy. Promising results in terms of fairness the communal elections achieved were eclipsed by the dissolution of the Cambodia National Rescue Party. With press and civil society also being silenced, the ruling Cambodian People's Party expects no more challenge to its authoritarian rule. The economy continued it growth in 2017. However, serious problems embedded in its structure threaten the likelihood of sustainable development. Cambodia with solid China backing began to amp up its voice on the international stage, heading to a head-on collision with big donators including the United States.