• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.1
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• pp.145-159
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• 2019

A good number of drought indices have been introduced and applied in different regions for monitoring drought conditions, but some of those are region-specific and have limitations for use under other climatic conditions because of the inherently complex characteristics of drought phenomenon. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indices are widely used all over the world, including Bangladesh. Although newly developed, studies have demonstrated The Effective Drought Index (EDI) to perform better compared to SPIs in some areas. This research examined the performance of EDI to the SPI for detecting drought events throughout 35 years (1981 to 2015) in Bangladesh. Rainfall data from 27 meteorological stations across Bangladesh were used to calculate the EDI and SPI values. Results suggest that the EDI can detect historical records of actual events better than SPIs. Moreover, EDI is more efficient in assessing both short and long-term droughts than SPIs. Results also indicate that SPI3 and the EDI indices have a better capability of detecting drought events in Bangladesh compared to other SPIs; however, SPI1 produced erroneous estimates. Therefore, EDI is found to be more responsive to drought conditions and can capture the real essence of the drought situation in Bangladesh. Outcomes from this study bear policy implications on mitigation measures to minimize the loss of agricultural production in drought-prone areas. Information on severity level and persistence of drought conditions will be instrumental for resource managers to allocate scarce resources optimally.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.14-27
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• 2020

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts and predict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate change RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which is considered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the drought assessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expected to increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from 2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrences were predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result of evaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early future and by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearly distinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in the past. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should be prepared to cope with droughts.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.158-158
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• 2018

Drought is a recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh. It has significant impacts on agriculture, environment, and society. Well-timed information on the onset, extent, intensity, duration, and impacts of drought can mitigate the potential drought-related losses. Thus, drought characteristics need to be explained in terms of frequency, severity, and duration. This paper aims to characterize the spatial and temporal pattern of meteorological drought using EDI and illustrated drought severity over Bangladesh. Twenty-seven (27) station-based daily rainfall data for the study period of 1981-2015 were used to calculate the EDI values over Bangladesh. The evaluation of EDI is conducted for 4 sub-regions over the country to confirm the historical drought record-developed at the regional scale. The finding shows that on average, the frequency of severe to extreme drought is approximately 0.7 events per year. As a result of the regional analysis, most of the recorded historical drought events were successfully detected during the study period. Additionally, the seasonal analysis showed that the extreme droughts were frequently hit in northwestern, middle portion of the eastern and small portion of central parts of Bangladesh during the Kharif(wet) and Rabi(dry) seasons. The severe drought was affected recurrently in the central and northern regions of the country during all cropping seasons. The study also points out that the northern, south-western and central regions in Bangladesh are comparatively vulnerable to both extreme and severe drought event. The study showed that EDI would be a useful tool to identify the drought-prone area and time and potentially applicable to the climate change-induced drought evolution monitoring at regional to the national level in Bangladesh. The outcome of the present study can be used in taking anticipatory strategies to mitigate the drought damages on agricultural production as well as human sufferings in drought-prone areas of Bangladesh.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.1775-1779
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• 2010

최근의 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인하여 홍수와 가뭄과 같은 극한 사상의 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 가뭄은 장기간에 걸쳐 피해를 유발시키는 대표적인 자연재해 중의 하나이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 가뭄의 크기와 정도를 정량화 할 수 있는 가뭄빈도해석을 수행하였다. 가뭄빈도해석을 위하여 우리나라의 61개 지점을 대상으로 EDI 가뭄지수를 산정하였다. 일별로 산정된 EDI 지수를 이용하여 연도별로 최저값을 추출하였다. 추출된 EDI 자료를 이용하여 빈도해석을 수행하였다. 빈도해석은 복합 확률 분포형 등의 장점을 갖고 있는 경계핵밀도함수를 이용하여 수행하였다. 분석 결과에서 재현기간 5년 내지 10년에서 극단적으로 건조함을 나타내는 가뭄지수인 -2.0 이하의 값을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 가뭄은 평균적으로 재현기간 5년에서 10년 사이에 반복적으로 발생할 수 있다. 그러므로 가뭄에 대한 지속적인 모니터링 시스템의 구축과 가뭄피해를 최소화 할 수 있도록 해야 한다.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.31-45
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• 2018

This study implemented the prediction of drought properties (number of drought events, intensity, duration) using the user-oriented systematical procedures of downscaling climate change scenarios based the multiple global climate models (GCMs), AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) program. The drought properties were defined and estimated with Effective Drought Index (EDI). The optimal 10 models among 29 GCMs were selected, by the estimation of the spatial and temporal reproducibility about the five climate change indices related with precipitation. In addition, Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) as the downscaling technique is much better in describing the observed precipitation events than Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM). Even though the procedure was systematically applied, there are still limitations in describing the observed spatial precipitation properties well due to the offset of spatial variability in multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis. As a result, the farther into the future, the duration and the number of drought generation will be decreased, while the intensity of drought will be increased. Regionally, the drought at the central regions of the Korean Peninsula is expected to be mitigated, while that at the southern regions are expected to be severe.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.2B
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• pp.87-98
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• 2011

Recently, occurrence frequency of extreme events like flood and drought is increasing due to climate change by global warming. Especially, a drought is more severer than other hydrologic disasters because it causes continuous damage through long period. But, ironically, it is difficult to recognize the importance and seriousness of droughts because droughts occur for a long stretch of time unlike flood. So as to analyze occurrence of droughts and prepare a countermeasure, this study analyzed a meteorologic drought among many kinds of drought that it is closely related with precipitation. Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standard Precipitation and Effective Drought Index are computed using precipitation and temperature material observed by Korean Meteorological Administration. With the result of comparative analysis of computed drought indices, Effective Drought Index is selected to execute frequency analysis because it is accordant to past droughts and has advantage to compute daily indices. A Frequency analysis of Effective Drought Index was executed using boundary kernel density function. In the result of analysis, occurrence periods of spring showed about between 10 year and 20 year, it implies that droughts of spring are more frequent than other seasons. And severity and occurrence period of droughts varied in different regions as occurrence periods of the Youngnam region and the southern coast of Korea are relatively shorter than other regions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.249-266
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• 2008

The tendencies for teleconnection with a time lag and other characteristics of Korean summer droughts have been investigated and some clues to predict the drought occurrences several months before have been found. First, the May and June droughts in Korea are simultaneous with those over the northwestern part of Korea owing to the relation with the baroclinic wave. However, the July and August droughts occur over the mid-latitudes or southern part of Korea owing to the relation with the Changma front. Second, several months before the MJJA droughts in Korea, it is found that the effective drought index (EDI) over particular areas (hereafter, referred to as the omen areas) is large. Thailand, Carolina Island, Mongolia, and Central Bengal Bay were selected as the omen areas. Third, when the monthly minimum EDI (MME) of the omen area in winter is more than 0.7, it signifies that the precipitation is above normal, Korea has almost always experienced a summer drought. However, the droughts occurring with this type of relationship only represent half of the MJJA droughts in Korea. Fourth, the relationships between the Korean drought and the precipitation over omen areas in low latitudes are not valid over all the eight precipitation areas in Korea, but only over Areas I, II, and III, where heavy rains occur during spring and summer.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.109-109
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• 2022

유효가뭄지수(Effective Drought Index, EDI)는 현재 기후에 대한 과거, 미래 기후에서의 상대적인 가뭄 특성 변화를 평가하기 위해 최근 30년간의 일 강수량 자료를 고정된 기준치로 사용한다. 이에 따라 장기간에 걸친 다양한 기후변화에 대한 인간 사회의 적응을 고려하며 가뭄의 영향을 평가할 때에는 한계점이 있다. 이 연구에서는 EDI의 기능을 확장하기 위해 자가교정 유효가뭄지수(self-calibrating EDI, scEDI)를 제안하고 그 성능을 평가하였다. 기존 EDI와는 다르게 scEDI는 관측시점을 기준으로 30년씩 이동하며 시간에 따라 변화하는 기후값을 기준치로 사용한다. 우리나라 서울관측소에서 1777년부터 2020년까지 누적된 244년간의 일 강수량 자료를 바탕으로, scEDI와 3개의 서로 다른 기후 기준치를 가진 기존 EDI를 계산하여 평가된 가뭄들의 특성을 비교하였다. 그 결과, 기후 기준치에 따라 서로 다른 가뭄 특성들을 보인 기존 EDI와 달리, scEDI는 변화하는 기후를 고려하여 분석기간에 걸쳐 가뭄의 특성을 일관되게 평가할 수 있는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 1807년부터 1907년까지 가뭄과 관련된 조선왕조실록의 기록과 scEDI가 평가한 과거 가뭄 사례들과 비교해 본 결과, scEDI가 탐지한 가뭄 사례들과 실제 조선왕조실록의 가뭄 기록이 비교적 잘 일치하여, scEDI가 과거의 사회적 가뭄을 잘 탐지하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 최근의 사회적 가뭄에 대한 scEDI의 탐지 능력을 평가하기 위해 구글과 네이버에서 2016년부터 2018년까지 수집된 가뭄 관련 검색어 소셜 빅데이터를 사용하여서 비교하였다. 그 결과, 과거와 마찬가지로 현재에서도 scEDI가 평가한 가뭄의 변화와 소셜 빅데이터에서 나타난 가뭄에 대한 사회적 반응이 잘 일치하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.241-246
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• 2013

We have investigated drought periodicities occurred in Seoul to find out any indication of relationship between drought in Korea and solar activities. It is motivated, in view of solar-terrestrial connection, to search for an example of extreme weather condition controlled by solar activity. The periodicity of drought in Seoul has been re-examined using the wavelet transform technique as the consensus is not achieved yet. The reason we have chosen Seoul is because daily precipitation was recorded for longer than 200 years, which meets our requirement that analyses of drought frequency demand long-term historical data to ensure reliable estimates. We have examined three types of time series of the Effective Drought Index (EDI). We have directly analyzed EDI time series in the first place. And we have constructed and analyzed time series of histogram in which the number of days whose EDI is less than -1.5 for a given month of the year is given as a function of time, and one in which the number of occasions where EDI values of three consecutive days are all less than -1.5 is given as a function of time. All the time series data sets we analyzed are periodic. Apart from the annual cycle due to seasonal variations, periodicities shorter than the 11 year sunspot cycle, ~ 3, ~ 4, ~ 6 years, have been confirmed. Periodicities to which theses short periodicities (shorter than Hale period) may be corresponding are not yet known. Longer periodicities possibly related to Gleissberg cycles, ~ 55, ~ 120 years, can be also seen. However, periodicity comparable to the 11 year solar cycle seems absent in both EDI and the constructed data sets.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2010.02a
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• pp.104-104
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• 2010

지난 2008년 가을부터 시작되어 2009년 봄까지 발생했던 전국적인 극한 가뭄을 계기로 가뭄모니터링의 필요성은 증대되었다. 본 연구는 우리나라에서 가뭄 모니터링을 위한 MODIS 위성영상 자료의 활용을 제안하였다. MODIS 영상은 임의의 지역의 시 공간적 특성을 관찰할 수 있는 해상도를 보유하고 있으며, MODIS에서 제공하는 MOD11(LST: Land Surface Temperature)은 가뭄 발생의 판별에는 유효하나 가뭄 심도와 지속기간을 판단하기 위해서는 기준이 되는 강우량 및 가뭄지수와의 비교가 필요하다고 알려져 있다. 본 연구에서는 MOD11(LST) 위성자료와 EDI(Effective Drought Index) 가뭄지수의 상관성을 고려하여 한반도 가뭄모니터링을 위한 MODIS 위성영상의 활용성을 평가하였다.