• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권52호
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• pp.311-322
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• 1999

Major problems involved in an electrical utility expansion planning within a time horizon are how to efficiently deal with objectives considering multiple factors and uncertainty. But justification factors in study these days have considered only quantitative factors except qualitative factors. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a new model for economic evaluation of nuclear power plants through the scoring model with the quantitative and qualitative factors under uncertainty. The quantitative factors use a levelized generation cost method considering time value of money. Especially, the environmental, risk, and safety factors in this paper have been also explained for the rational economic justification of the qualitative factors under uncertainty. This paper not only proposes a new approach method using the scoring model in evaluating economy of the nuclear power plant in the long term, but also provides the more efficient decision making criterion for nuclear power plants under uncertainty.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.165-184
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• 2020

Applying Ismailov and Rossi (2018), I newly construct the Korea FX uncertainty based on the density distribution of historical forecast errors. This uncertainty index properly captures the rare but significant events in the Korean currency market and provides information distinct from other uncertainty measures in recent studies. I show that 1) FX uncertainty arising from unexpected depreciation has a stronger impact on Korea-U.S. exchange rates and that 2) macro variables, such as capital flows or interest rate differentials, have predictive ability regarding Korea FX uncertainty for short horizons. These findings enable us to predict the events of sudden currency crashes and understand the Korea-U.S. exchange rate dynamics.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.95-140
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• 2024

This study empirically investigates the international transmission of China's uncertainty shocks. It estimates a time-varying parameter Bayesian global structural vector autoregressive model (TVP-BGVAR) using time series data for 33 countries to evaluate heterogeneous international linkage across countries and time. Uncertainty shocks are identified via sign restrictions. The empirical results reveal that an increase in uncertainty in China negatively affects the global economy, but those effects significantly vary over time. The effects of China's uncertainty shocks on the global economy have been significantly altered by China's WTO accession, the global financial crisis, and the recent US-China trade conflict. Furthermore, the effects of China's uncertainty shocks, typically on inflation, differ significantly across countries. Moreover, Trade openness appears crucial in explaining heterogeneous GDP responses across countries, whereas the international dimension of monetary policy appears to be important in explaining heterogeneous inflation responses across countries.

• STI Policy Review
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.35-44
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• 2011

Korea has rapidly increased R&D investment over the last few decades and the intensity of R&D investment is among the highest in the world; however, there are serious concerns about R&D performance and R&D efficiency. This study is to improve the economic assessment methodology regarding a feasibility study for national R&D programs that are thought to be one of the most prominent ways to enhance R&D efficiency. In order to improve the methodology of economic assessment, a few of important factors such as technical or market uncertainty, spillover effect, and R&D contribution ratio should be covered in the model. The focus of this article is technological and market uncertainty that has a close relation with strategic flexibility and utilization potential to increase the value of R&D programs. To improve the current linear and definitive R&D process, a new framework with strategic flexibility is suggested, in which the result of economic assessment that considers technological and market uncertainty is reflected in planning. That kind of feedback process is expected to enhance the value of the program/project as well as R&D efficiency.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.319-330
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• 2023

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the connectedness between categorical economic policy uncertainty (monetary, fiscal, trade and foreign exchange policy uncertainty) indexes and option-implied volatility index in Korea, Japan and the US. Design/methodology/approach - This paper employs the Diebold-Ylmaz (2012) model based on a VAR and generalized forecast error variance decomposition. This paper also conducts regression analyses to investigate whether the volatility indexes are explained by categorical policy uncertainty indexes. Findings - First, we find the total connectedness is stronger in Korea and Japan relative to the US. Second, monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange policy uncertainty indexes are connected to each other but trade policy uncertainty index is not. Third, the volatility index in Japan and the US is mainly associated with monetary policy uncertainty while the volatility index in Korea is explained by fiscal policy uncertainty index. Research implications or Originality - To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the connectedness among categorical policy uncertainty indexes and the volatility index in Korea, Japan, and the US. The empirical results on the connectedness suggest that transparent policy and communication with the market in one type of policy would reduce the uncertainty in other policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic uncertainty on MNC investment in Malaysia from 2009 to 2019 by employing an ARDL method. The results revealed that Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) has a positive association with the capital expenditures of Nestle, British American Tobacco, and Public Bank in the long run. In a similar period, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positively significant with the capital expenditures of British America Tobacco and Heineken. However, inflation is negatively related to the capital expenditures of British America Tobacco and Heineken. Additionally, the exchange rate has a significant and negative relationship with the capital expenditures of Nestle and Petronas, while the ECT value is negative and significant in the short run, hence confirming that co-integration exists. In view of this, it is imperative that the government plays a prerogative role to support MNC operations, as MNCs foster the developing countries' economic development through facilitating full employment. This study sets to enhance the personal knowledge of those with a strong interest in the Malaysian financial market. As long as MNCs believe that the Malaysian market has the potential to grow, they will continue to invest for the benefit of the country.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.25-66
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• 2012

The paper analyzes the effect of expected future demand on the investment decisions of multinational enterprises. In particular, I explore the issue of the timing of switching between exporting and FDI in the host developing country and explicitly incorporate the firm's attitude toward risk in the model. The model demonstrates that the optimal time for switching to FDI depends on the expected future demand and the degree of its uncertainty.

• 성인간호학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.53-61
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• 2013

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify the levels of anxiety, depression and uncertainty of patients who participated in the clinical trials for anticancer drug, and to identify correlations among these variables. Methods: Cross-sectional survey used the Symptom Check List-90-Revision and the Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale from 106 subjects in 2011. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlation coefficients. Results: The mean score of anxiety was 2.06, that of depression 2.35, and that of uncertainty 2.61. Anxiety and depression (r=.70), anxiety and uncertainty (r=.44), depression and uncertainty (r=.60) were significantly correlated each other. The levels of anxiety, depression and uncertainty were different in various characteristics of the subjects, such as education, recurrence, and economic burden. Conclusion: The results of the study indicate that when implementing psychosocial interventions for cancer patients who participate in clinical trial, factors such as education, economic burden, and recurrence should be integrated into the intervention. Further studies applying theoretical model would be helpful to identify directional relationships among the variables that are important in psychosocial well-being of cancer patients undergoing clinical trial.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.639-653
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• 2020

COVID-19 대유행, 미·중 무역분쟁, 글로벌 금융위기 등 대내외 환경변화에 따른 경제불확실성이 증가하고 있다. 경제불확실성은 경제 전반의 성장을 지연·제약하고 있어 정책 수행과 경제분석에서 경제불확실성을 측정하는 것이 중요하다. Baker 등 (2016) 등은 주요 언론사의 기사의 키워드를 분석하여 우리나라를 포함한 주요국의 경제불확실성(economic policy uncertainty) 지수를 산출하여 공개하고 있다. 그런데 Baker 등의 우리나라 경제불확실성 지수는 키워드 선정, 기사 수집 방법, 대상 언론사의 선정 등에 있어 우리나라 상황을 충분히 반영하지 못하고 있다. 이 논문에서는 우리나라 상황에 맞게 우리나라 경제불확실성 지수를 수정·보완하여 작성하고, 그 유용성을 거시경제 통계와의 관련성, 예측력과 경제분석 측면에서 비교·검증하였다.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제16권12호
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• pp.5-11
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• 2018

Purpose - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the US and China and housing distribution economy in Korea using EPU indexes of two countries and the economic indicators in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the data such as the Korean housing price stability index (HPSI), housing purchase price index (HPPI), housing lease price index (HLPI), banking stock index (BSI), and consumer price index (CPI) with EPU indexes from January 1999 to December 2017. As an empirical methodology, we select the vector error correction model (VECM) due to the existence of cointegration. Result - As results of the impulse response function, the impact of the US EPU index has initially a negative response on the Korean HPSI, HPPI, and HLPI referring the housing distribution market including the economic variables, BSI, and CPI. Likewise, the impact of index in China has initially a negative response on economic indicators except the BSI in Korea. Conclusions - This study shows that the EPU index of the US has significantly negative relationships on all economic indicators in Korea. In this study, we reveal EPU of the US and China has dynamic impact on housing distribution economy returns in Korea.