• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.323-335
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• 2017

A simplified framework for the probabilistic estimation of economic losses induced by the structural vulnerability in single-story and single-bay precast industrial buildings is presented. The simplifications introduced in the framework are oriented to the definition of an expeditious procedure adoptable by government agencies and insurance companies for preliminary risk assessment. The economic losses are evaluated considering seismic hazard, structural response, damage resulting from the structural vulnerability and only structural-vulnerability-induced e]conomic losses, i.e., structural repair or reconstruction costs (stock and flow costs) and content losses induced by structural collapse. The uncertainties associated with each step are accounted for via Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results in a probabilistic description of the seismic risk of portal-like industrial buildings, expressed in terms of economic losses for each occurrence (i.e., seismic event) that owners (i.e., insured) and stakeholders can use to make risk management decisions. The outcome may also be useful for the definition of the insurance premiums and the evaluation of the risks and costs for the owner corresponding to the insurance industrial costs. A prototype of a precast concrete industrial building located in Mirandola, Italy, hit by the 2012 Emilia earthquake, is used as an example of the application of the procedure.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.110-147
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• 2022

Many megacities are exposed to natural hazards such as earthquakes, and when located in coastal regions, are also vulnerable to hurricanes and tsunamis. The physical infrastructures of transportation systems in megacities have become so complicated that very few organizations can understand their response to extreme events such as earthquakes and can effectively mitigate subsequent economic downfalls. The technological advances made in recent years to support these complex systems have not grown as fast as the rapid demand on these systems burdened by population shift toward megacities. The objective of this paper is to examine the risks imposed on and recoveries of transportation systems in megacities as the result of extreme events such as an earthquake. First, the physical damage to transportation infrastructure, loss of the transportation system performance, and the corresponding economic loss from disruptions to passenger and freight traffic is evaluated. Then, traffic flows are re-routed to reduce vehicles' delay due to earthquakes using a microscopic traffic flow simulator with an optimization model and macroscopic terminal simulator. Finally, the economic impact of the earthquake is estimated nationwide. Southern California is regarded as the region of study. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated model and provide what and how to prepare innovative resilience policies of urban infrastructure for a natural disaster occurrence.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.21-43
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• 2024

This paper provides a new theoretical rationale for public procurement for innovation (PPI), a unique policy encouraging public procurers to purchase innovative products. In contrast to existing studies that primarily emphasize the advantages of PPI, this paper takes a comprehensive approach, examining both the costs and risks associated with PPI, alongside its benefits. It finds a general condition under which PPI outperforms traditional public procurement. Under this condition, this paper demonstrates that PPI enhances social welfare by facilitating optimal risk-sharing between public procurers and the general economy. Additionally, it draws policy implications from a comparative analysis between the current PPI policy in Korea and an optimal PPI policy.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.128-146
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• 2019

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between internal control, economic policy uncertainty, and performance of cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) based on the panel data of Chinese listed firms. The authors expected that internal control has a positive moderating effect on the performance of cross-border M&A and that it mainly occurs during periods when economic policies are relatively stable. In addition, the authors tried to find out the mechanism of internal control affecting cross-border M&A and the corporate performance. Design/methodology - The authors tested the hypotheses by a multivariate regression model based on the panel data of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017. The dependent variable is the change value of business performance (DROA_1,2,3) and the explanatory variables are cross-border M&A (MA), China's uncertainty of economic policy (EPU), and internal control level (IC) respectively. Findings - The authors find that internal control has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between cross-border M&A and corporate performance. Further, the authors find that the moderating effect is more significant in state-owned enterprises and that it mainly occurs during periods when economic policies are relatively stable. Originality/value - This paper is the leading study that tries to analyze empirically the relationship between internal control, economic policy uncertainty, and performance of cross-border M&A. It provides a new avenue through which internal control might reasonably mitigate the risks of cross-border M&A and correspondingly improve the performance of cross-border M&A. It also confirms the moderating effect of internal control on the performance of cross-border M&A under the uncertainty of economic policy.

• Strategy21
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• s.37
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• pp.104-143
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• 2015

China's new grand strategy, the "One Belt, One Road Initiative" (also Belt Road Initiative, or BRI) has two primary components: Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the "Silk Road Economic Belt" in September 2013 during a visit to Kazakhstan, and the "21^st Century Maritime Silk Route Economic Belt" in a speech to the Indonesian parliament the following month. The BRI is intended to supply China with energy and new markets, and also to integrate the countries of Central Asia, the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN), and the Indian Ocean Region - though not Northeast Asia - into the "Chinese Dream". The project will be supported by the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), due to open in 2016 with 57 founding members from all around the world, and China has already promised US$ 50 billion in seed funding. China's vision includes networks of energy pipelines, railways, sea port facilities and logistics hubs; these will have obvious commercial benefits, but also huge geopolitical significance. China seems to have two distinct aims: externally, to restore its historical sphere of influence; and internally, to cope with income inequalities by creating middle-class jobs through enhanced trade and the broader development of its economy. In South Korea, opinion on the BRI is sharply polarized. Economic and industrial interests, including Korea Railroad Corporation (KORAIL), support South Korean involvement in the BRI and closer economic interactions with China. They see how the BRI fits nicely with President Park Geun-hye's Eurasia Initiative, and anticipate significant commercial benefits for South Korea from better connections to energy-rich Russia and the consumer markets of Europe and Central Asia. They welcome the prospect of reduced trade barriers between China and South Korea, and of improved transport infrastructure, and perceive the political risks as manageable. But some ardently pro-US pundits worry that the political risks of the BRI are too high. They cast doubt on the feasibility of implementing the BRI, and warn that although it has been portrayed primarily in economic terms, it actually reveals a crucial Chinese geopolitical strategy. They are fearful of China's growing regional dominance, and worried that the BRI is ultimately a means to supplant the prevailing US-led regional security structure and restore the Middle Kingdom order, with China as the only power that matters in the region. According to this view, once China has complete control of the regional logistics hubs and sea ports, this will severely limit the autonomy of China's neighbors, including South Korea, who will have to toe the Chinese line, both economically and politically, or risk their own peace and prosperity.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.19-34
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• 2013

Previous research assessed media reporting on nuclear accidents and risks, whilst studies about the Fukushima accident focused on the impact of the Internet on coverage of the incident. However, little research has addressed news framing or comparisons of the perceptions of journalists in relation to reporting nuclear accidents. The aim of this study is to apply framing analysis to news content in The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and USA Today about the Fukushima accident. It explores the question of how journalists view reporting on complex events. Content analysis of these three newspapers shows that conflict, responsibility, and economic consequences were the most frequently used frames. According to the journalists interviewed, the biggest problem was the inability to assess information due to contrary positions held by experts. It is argued that the Fukushima accident was framed as a conflict of experts and officials' opinions, utility and government officials' responsibility, and economic consequences for the United States. Adherence to professional norms of objectivity and impartiality was signified as the best approaches to risk reporting.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.273-290
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• 2012

While the issue of RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) revaluation became the focus of world attention in 2003, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 didn't fundamentally solve the RMB appreciation problem, and even in 2008 the global financial crisis made RMB appreciation face new challenges and risks. It appears that the rise in RMB value is caused by supply exceeding demand in China's foreign exchange market; however, intrinsically it is due to the asymmetry in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The export tax rebates policy implemented by Chinese government is one of the leading causes of the asymmetry. This study constructs a transmission model between export tax rebates and foreign exchange rates, and applies the Granger Test to validate the causality between kernel variables based on correlative data from 1994-2011, and uses the error correction method to analyze the quantified relations of kernel variables, and finally gets the contribution rate of export tax rebates to RMB appreciation.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.357-360
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• 2007

Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.12spc
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• pp.477-482
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• 2021

The existing approaches to ensuring the banking security of the state do not take into account the peculiarities of the banking system in the rapid development of the information economy (increasing uncertainty, imbalance and nonlinearity of processes in the banking system under the influence of innovation, institutions, information asymmetry, etc.). A methodological approach to determining the synergetic effect in the implementation of the regulatory influence of the state on the development of innovation processes related to informatization in the banking system, based on the use of differential equations and modelling the sensitivity of innovation processes related to informatization in the banking system, to the regulatory influence of the state to prevent the deployment of risks and threats to economic security of the state in this area has been suggested in the present article.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Fundamentals of Nursing
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.185-197
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• 1999

For the past 10 years, the number of male smokers has dwindled. On the other hand, the number of female smokers has increased abruptly. Cigarette smoking is more hazardous to a woman than to a man because it can affect her health and her fetus during pregnancy. Many studies show that cigarette smoking is one of the most important risk factors determining the mortality and the morbidity of various kinds of diseases such as lung cancer and pharyngeal cancer. But, it is also known to be one of the risk factors we can handle and prevent easily. The subjects of this study consisted of 263 female nursing students in Seoul and Chonbuk Province. Using questionnaires, we were collected data from December 1 to December 10 1998. The questionnaire included 24 questions related to environmental factors and 14 questions related with self-efficacy. The statistical analysis was done with SPSS ver. 8.0(SPSS Inc. U.S.). The results of this study are as follows. 1) Cigarette smoking in women was influenced by her family or friends. That is to say, the higher number of her friends or family members who smoked cigarettes, the more likely a woman was to become a smoker. Economic status and knowledge level about the risks of cigarette smoking were also related to women smoking. So, women with lower levels of economic status and less knowledge about the risks of cigarette smoking were the more likely to become smokers. 2) Woman with higher levels of self-efficacy were less likely to become smokers. 3) The factors influencing a woman's smoking were whether her friends smoked, whether her mother smoked and her self-efficacy in that order. Environmental factors, self-efficacy were found to be important factors influencing smoking in women. It is suggested a quit-smoking program for women college students, be based on consideration of these environmental factors and self-efficacy.