• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.15-24
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• 2018

The study examines the magnitude of economic spillover and the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on the efficiency of the bank industry in China. This study employs unit root tests, cointegration tests and cointegrating regression analysis, including fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and dynamic OLS (DOLS) to test the proposed hypotheses. The sample is restricted to the period of time in which monthly data is available and comparable among variables for the period from January 2002 to October 2013 (142 observations). All of the time series data was collected and retrieved from the People's Bank of China, China Monthly Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and International Financial Statistics database from International Monetary Fund. The results of the Johansen cointegration test suggest that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between FDI inflows, foreign exchange rate and banks performance in China. The results of cointegrating regression analysis using FMOLS, CCR and DOLS suggest that M2 supply and FDI inflows are significant at the 0.01 level. The results confirm that FDI inflows in the banking sector are positively related to the increase of banks productivity and performance and short-term loans in China. However, the results suggest that Chinese Yuan currency exchange rate to U.S. dollar is not significant in the banking and financial industry of China.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2015

We examine the validity of popular exchange rate models such as the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis and the monetary model for Korean won/US dollar exchange rate. Various specification tests demonstrate that Korean data are more favorable for both models based on time-varying cointegration coefficients as compared to those based on constant cointegration coefficients. When the abilities to predict future exchange rates between those models based on time-varying cointegration coefficients are compared, an in-sample analysis shows that the time-varying PPP (monetary model) has better predictive power over horizons shorter (longer) than one year. Results from an out-of-sample analysis indicate that the time-varying PPP outperforms models based on constant cointegration coefficients when predicting future exchange rate changes in the long run.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제10권7호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2012

The effect of the September 2008 global financial crisis weighed heavily on stock markets around the world. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the impact of the crisis on Amman Stock Exchange. Event study methodology has been adopted on a period of 24 months, from January 2008 to December 2009. Monthly average abnormal returns across a sample of 52 industrial and services companies have been tested separately. The results reveal that Amman Stock Exchange experienced significant negative abnormal returns in the fourth quarter of the year 2008. However, there were no significant abnormal returns observed thereafter. This means that Amman Stock Exchange managed to overcome its adverse consequences. Since the event study tests for market efficiency, as well, the results show that Amman Stock Exchange reaction is consistent with the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.29-37
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• 2011

한민족으로서 남북한이 통일을 해야 한다는 당위성에도 불구하고 남북한은 지구상에서 가장 갈등이 심하고 군사적 충돌의 위험이 높은 관계로 남아 있다. 물론 그동안 우리정부는 이러한 갈등과 긴장관계를 해소하기 위해 다양한 방면에서 북한과의 교류를 추진해 왔지만, 최근 남북관계가 다시 경색국면에 들어서면서 이러한 노력들은 그 의미가 퇴색해 가고 있다. 이는 정치관계의 일시적 회복이 제도 개선과 경제협력으로 나아가지 못한데 기인한다고 할 수 있다. 남북한 유통·물류 교류협력에 관한 본 연구는 남북통일을 위한 교류협력에서의 "막힘없는 유통·물류"를 실현하여 유통·물류교류협력을 통한 하나의 경제권을 형성해가는 기초가 될 것이라는 기대에 의한 것이다. 다시 말해서 남북한의 경제교류와 협력이 확대되기 위해서는 경제활동의 핏줄에 해당하는 유통·물류분야의 발전이 있어야 가능하기 때문이다. 이에 본 연구는 정치적 선언에 의해 조성된 협력관계와 화해분위기를 국민적 합의 속에 제도화하고, 정치분야외 특히 경제 분야에서 교류를 확대해야 한다고 본다.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.35-46
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• 2016

우리나라는 국토가 남과 북으로 단절되고 시장이 작아 수출의존도가 높은 경제구조이어서 항만은 우리 경제에 필수불가결하다. 이에 본고는 우리나라 대표 항만인 부산항, 광양항, 인천항의 수출이 어떠한 행태를 갖는가를 밝힌다. 수출은 일반적인 형태인 환율과 경기의 함수로 정의하되 환율의 부호가 이론이 제시하는 것과 상이하게 나타나는 경향이 있기 때문에 환율을 미 달러화의 원화표시 명목환율, 광의와 협의의 명목실효환율과 실질실효환율 5가지로 구분하여 구성한다. 그리고 3개 항만 모두 명목실효환율이 명목환율이나 실질실효환율보다 우수한 추정 결과를 보이며, 명목실효환율에서도 광의의 명목실효환율보다 협의의 명목실효환율을 이용한 모형이 수출의 추정에 적합함을 밝힌다. 명목실효환율로 구성한 모형의 안정성을 GPH 공적분검정을 통해 밝히고 전향적 이동회귀분석을 실시하여 환율과 경기가 항만의 수출에 미치는 영향력이 지속적으로 약해지고 있다는 것과 환율보다 경기의 영향력이 더 크다는 것을 보인다. 오정수정모형을 추정하여 수출에서 발생한 일시적 괴리를 조정하는 속도가 부산항에서 가장 빠르고 광양항이 가장 더디며, 부산항의 균형회복이 두 항만에 비해 상당히 빠르다는 이루어진다는 것을 밝힌다. 예측오차의 분산분해와 역사적 분해를 통해 수출은 강한 외생성을 갖는 변수이며, 이에 따라 항만의 수출이 환율과 경기와 같은 경제변수 외에 다른 변수들의 영향을 크게 받게 된다. 항만의 수출에서 환율과 경기와 같은 경제적 변수가 중요한 역할을 하지만 경제외적 변수도 경제적 변수 못지않게 중요한 비중을 차지한다는 것을 의미한다. 또한 수출의 외생성이 광양항에서 가장 강하고 부산항에서 가장 약하며, 항만의 불균형 조정속도는 광양항에서 가장 늦고 부산항에서 가장 빠르다는 사실을 함께 고려하면 항만 수출불균형을 조정하는 힘은 환율과 경기보다 다른 요인들에서 나온다는 것을 의미함을 밝힌다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권12호
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• pp.63-73
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• 2021

This study investigates the key determinants of exchange rate (RER) misalignment for the period 1991 to 2020. The BEER technique has been used to estimate the degree of the equilibrium exchange rate. To explore the actual exchange rate misalignment and to assess the behavior of variables that are different in different regimes of undervaluation and overvaluation, the nonlinear technique of Markov regime-switching (MSM) was applied. The mean and variance of each regime are highly significant and show that undervaluation episodes have a low mean (116.139) and more volatility (1.229) while overvaluation episodes have a high mean (126.732) with less volatility (0.871). The findings show that MSM accurately identifies exchange rate misalignment in both regimes as separate incidents of overvaluation and undervaluation. Results further depict that misalignment of the RER is affected by terms of trade, net foreign assets, interest differential, government investment, and consumption decision. Results recommend that if policymakers want to use the exchange rate as a policy tool, they must first consider the drivers of the equilibrium exchange rate. As a result, any deliberate actions to address exchange rate misalignment must focus on the underlying fundamentals that drive the exchange rate.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국데이터정보과학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.25-32
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• 2004

In this study, we use various change-point detection methods to detects Korea economic crisis of 1997, and then compares their performance. In change-point detection method, there are three major categories: (1) the parametric approach, (2) the nonparametric approach, and (3) the model-based approach. Through the application to Korea foreign exchange rate during her economic crisis, we compare the employed change-point detection methods and, furthermore, determine which of them performs better.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.585-592
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• 2004

This study detects Korea economic crisis of 1997 using various change-point detection methods and then compares their performance. In change-point detection method, there are three major categories: (1) the parametric approach, (2) the nonparametric approach, and (3) the model-based approach. Through the application to Korea foreign exchange rate during her economic crisis, we compare the employed change-point detection methods and, furthermore, determine which of them performs better.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.5-15
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• 2015

Purpose - This study reviews Cameroon's economic growth, crisis, and recovery, aiming to: review the principal factors of Cameroon's real economic growth; explore the causes of its economic crisis analyze the determinants of its economic recovery; and suggest appropriate policies to ameliorate economic growth. Research design, data, and methodology - By reviewing the relevant literature and economic indicators, we observed that from the 1980s to the present, Cameroon experienced all the possible business cycle phases: economic prosperity (until 1985), economic and social crisis (1986-1994), and renewed economic growth (after 1995). Results - As a result of the economic changes in Cameroon, its macroeconomic indicators have evolved. Poverty and inequality have changed in both quantitative and qualitative terms. Throughout the examined period, rural poverty has become more widespread, deeper, and more severe than urban poverty, while inequality has experienced greater increases in urban areas relative to rural zones. Conclusions -To reap maximum benefits and reduce poverty from these economic changes, Cameroon needs to liberalize trade and foreign exchange transactions to attract foreign investment, especially during the current globalization.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권3호
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• pp.15-24
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• 2019

The study conducted an empirical analysis of the impact of FDI on economic growth in four Asian countries: China, India, Vietnam and Korea. With panel data for the 1990-2017 period, the research model was developed for foreign direct investment (FDI), export amount (EX), government expenditure (G), exchange rate (EXR), and labourable population (L). The panel analysis results show that the increase in FDI, exports, government expenditure, labourable population significantly increased economic growth. The comparison analysis for each country revealed that FDI, exports and government expenditure significantly affect economic growth in China, that exports and government expenditure significantly affect economic growth in Korea, that FDI significantly affected economic growth in Vietnam, and that the increase in the workforce contributed to economic development in India. This paper characterized the different factors of economic growth in the four Asian countries. These results suggest that setting economic priorities to suit the specific economic conditions of each country is a shortcut to more efficient economic growth.