• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.43 no.2
• /
• pp.1-22
• /
• 2021

The effects of social distancing measures on income distributions and aggregate variables are examined with an off-the-shelf heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market model. The model shows that social distancing measures, which limit households' labor supply, can decrease the labor supply of low-income households who hold insufficient assets and need income the most given their borrowing constraints. Social distancing measures can therefore exacerbate income inequality by lowering the incomes of the poor. An equilibrium interest rate can fall when the social distancing shock is expected to be persistent because households save more to prepare for rising consumption volatility given the possibility of binding to the labor supply constraint over time. When the shock is expected to be transitory, in contrast, the interest rate can rise upon the arrival of the shock because constrained households choose to borrow more to smooth consumption given the expectation that the shock will fade away. The model also shows that social distancing shocks, which diminish households' consumption demand, can decrease households' incomes evenly for every income quantile, having a limited impact on income inequality.

• Journal of Labour Economics
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.31-62
• /
• 2018

Using matching and difference-in-differences estimation method, this study estimates causal effects of health shocks on employment and income of full-time workers aged 40-55. Acute hospital admissions lower significantly the employment probability and earnings. The changes in employment and earnings persist up to three years after the health shock. The economic impacts of health shocks vary by socioeconomic status and job characteristics among individuals. Irregular workers are more likely to leave their jobs after health shocks than regular workers. Among irregular workers, the probability of leaving labor market after health shock decreases with the size of the firm.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.337-370
• /
• 2018

This paper discusses the design of monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy framework by introducing nominal wage rigidities and incomplete exchange rate pass-through on import prices. Three main findings are summarized. First, with the existence of an incomplete exchange rate pass-through and nominal wage rigidities, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize the output gap, the variance of domestic price and wage inflation, as well as deviations from the law of one price. Second, the CPI inflation targeting Taylor rule is welfare enhancing when there is a technological shock to the economy. The exception occurs when there is a foreign income shock, which minimizes welfare losses under the domestic inflation targeting Taylor rule. Last, two stylized Taylor rules turn out to be a bad approximation, but the modified Taylor rules that respond to the unemployment gap rather than the output gap are a closer approximation to the optimal policy.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.23 no.3
• /
• pp.227-260
• /
• 2019

This paper offers a comprehensive view of international risk sharing and of related policy issues from the perspective of the European Union. The traditional analyses contemplate three risk-sharing channels: the capital markets channel (through cross border portfolio investments), international transfers and the credit markets channel (via savings). Comparative analyses reveal that, on average, about 80% of the shock remains unsmoothed in Europe while only about 18% of the shock is transmitted to consumers within the US. From aggregated figures, there is space for improving, particularly, the cross-border investments channel in Europe. In this sense, the completion of the Banking and Capital Markets Union are expected to boost risk sharing across European member states. We also review new additional issues usually not contemplated by the traditional literature as depreciation, migration and the role of sovereigns and two new additional channels recently considered in the literature: government consumption and the real exchange rate. Finally, we also examine recent analysis related to the geographic distribution of risk sharing.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.11 no.10
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2013

Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.11
• /
• pp.23-31
• /
• 2020

This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy independence shock on bond yield by allowing for heterogeneous coefficients in the model based on panel data for 19 developing countries using quarterly data from 1991 to 2016. First, we estimate the model using conventional panel VAR estimation with the assumption of homogeneous coefficients across countries. Second, by performing Chow and Roy-Zellner tests to check the homogeneity assumption, we find that the assumption does not hold in the model. Third, we apply a mean-group estimation for panel VAR as a solution for heterogeneity panel model. The results reveal that central bank independence is effective in reducing bond yield with the maximum at period 6 after the shock. Shock one standard deviation bond yield has a negative effect on consumption and investment. We determine that central bank independence has a contradictory effect on real activity; a negative effect on consumption but a positive influence on investment for the first two years after the shock. Additionally, we split our sample into three groups to make the subgroups pool. Our empirical result shows that monetary policy independence shock reduces bond yield. Meanwhile, the response of economic activity to bond yield varies for all three groups.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.281-298
• /
• 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has so far given the world a great shock and fear that cannot be compared to other infectious diseases, and local economies are experiencing a serious economic crisis accordingly. This paper examines the regional characteristics of economic recession and resilience due to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the employment fluctuations in 85 cities nationwide. Although the overall trend is in line with national employment indicators, there are some differences in the shock response and the recovery of employment in individual cities. The difference between cities is somewhat greater in the resilience of the recovery stage than the resistance, which is the shock-response stage. In terms of resilience, cities in the capital area have relatively good condition compared to cities in the non-capital area. The weak resilience of large cities such as Seoul, which has a high population density, can be explained to be the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic of infectious diseases. Regarding the economic structure of the city, the ratio of service and sales workers, wholesalers and retailers, and food and lodging businesses are analyzed as valid explanatory variables for the resilience of cities.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.24 no.1
• /
• pp.1-10
• /
• 2008

This paper analyses the dynamic causal relationship between vessel export and economic growth using annual data over the period from 1977 to 2006. Tests for ADF unit-roots, the dynamic vector using Johansen's multiple cointegration procedure, dynamic vector error correction model and impulse response function are presented. The findings of the Granger test suggest that vessel export Granger-causes economic growth in the short-run and economic growth Granger-causes exports in the short and long-run. The empirical results of impulse-response analysis show that the vessel export to a shock in real GDP responds positively and the real GDP responds positively to the shocks in vessel export. Also, the results indicate that the impact of vessel export shock on the real GDP is short-lived.

• Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.187-206
• /
• 2020

Under the on-going evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, estimating the economic impact of the pandemic is highly uncertain and challenging. This situation makes it difficult for policymakers, governors, and economic entities to formulate appropriate responses and decision makings. To provide useful information about the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Korean economy, this study examined macroeconomic impact analysis stemming from the pandemic shocks with different scenarios for the Korean economy. Based on three scenarios using the growth rate of 2020 GDP and consumer expenditure patterns, the 2021 GDP by industry sector was forecast with two new approaches. First, the recovering process of the Korean economy from the shock was analyzed by applying a Flex-IO method. Second, a new forecasting approach combined with an IO coefficient matrix was applied to forecast the future GDP changes. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: First, the total GDP growth rate under the Pessimistic Scenario demonstrates less rebound from the shock than that of the Base Scenario. Second, agriculture, culture, and tourism-related sectors that are suffering from the severe losses of COVID-19 showed lower resilience than other different industries. Third, information and communications technology (ICT) industry maintains a stable growth trend and is expected to take the leading role for the Korean economy in the post-COVID-19 and the Industry 4.0 eras. The findings deliver that it needs to analyze how government expenditure responding the shock into the forecasting model, which can be more useful and reliable to simulate the resilience from the pandemic.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.444-453
• /
• 1997

The purpose of this study was to construct a grounded theory as the basis for nursing intervention by describing and analysing the holistic lived experiences of clients receiving long-term hemodialysis. The subjects of this study were fifteen persons receiving regular hemodialysis regimen at artificial kindey treatment centers in two different university hospitals, and who were able to participate in conversation and were available for long and dup interviews. Eight of the subjects were male and seven were female and their ages ranged from 30's to 60's. The length of the hemodialysis experience ranged from two months to six years. The collection and analysis of data were done in accordance with the grounded theory methodology of Strauss & Corbin. The method to collect the data mainly depended. on long and deep interviews, participant observation and focused group interviews and the equipment used to collect data were a portable tape recorder and field notes. The study is summarized as follows : 1. The meaning of holistic lived experiences of clients receiving long -term hemodialysis was found to be uncertainty. which was identified as the core category. 2. The main categories following the core category were found to be shock, ambiguity, social support and quality of life. 3. Through the main category the type of behavior newly formed by clients receiving long-term hemodialysis was found to be as follows. That is to say, in the circumstances of shock caused by the identified fact and the ambiguity of hemodilysis they formed a quality of life based on social support, which was found to be a kind of chaotic phenomenon. 4. The lived experiences of clients receiving long-tern hemodialysis was found to include nine categories : emotional shock, feelings of isolation, burden, unclearness, dependency, help from others, coping strategies, maintenance of self-esteem and transitional life. 5. The intervening factors influencing each category are as follows : 1) The factors influencing 'emetional shock' were found to be set age, the level of knowledge received in advance, locus of control, the period of struggle against the disease before hemodialysis and whether any serious illness existed. 2) The factors influencing 'feelings of isolation' were found to be religion and the length of the hemodialysis experience. 3) The factors influencing 'burden' were found to be sex, economic situation, employment status and the length of the hemodialysis experience. 4) The factors influencing 'unclearness' were found to be sex, age, religion. economic situation, the length of the hemodiaysis experience, whether they had had a transfusion and whether there were any complications. 5) The factors influencing 'help from others' were found to be religion. economic situation, past experiences and whether family members lived together. 6) The factors influencing 'coping strategies' were foung to be age, level of education, experiences of illness and locus of control. 7) The factors influeruing 'maintenance of self-esteem' were found to be the length of the hemodialysis experience and self-actualization. 8) The factors influencing 'transitional life' were found to be age, religion, economic situation, employment status. locus of control. past experiences and whether there was a plan for a kidney transplant.