• 제목/요약/키워드: Economic Performance

검색결과 3,184건 처리시간 0.033초

그룹 몰입도 판단을 위한 움직임 동기화 연구 (A Study of the Reactive Movement Synchronization for Analysis of Group Flow)

  • 류준모;박승보;김재경
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.79-94
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    • 2013
  • 최근 문화 예술 분야를 활용하여 고부가가치를 창출하며 지속적으로 발전하는 공연예술 시장 환경 속에서 공연 기획자들이나 투자자들은 공연에서 성공을 하기 위한 객관적인 지표를 원한다. 성공적인 공연을 위해서는 관람객들에게 편의를 제공하여 만족도를 높여 주어야 하며, 따라서 재미와 감동, 가치를 높이는 방안도 모색해야 한다. 기존의 만족도 확인 방법으로는 공연기간, 설문조사, 입소문 등 주관적인 평가가 대부분이다. 이것들은 관람객들의 만족도에 대한 평가 기준이 될 수 는 없다. 최근에는 공연에서 관람객의 몰입 정도가 공연의 주요 성공 요인으로 평가되기 시작했다. 공연에 대한 몰입도가 높으면 만족도도 높아진다는 연구 결과도 있다. 그래서 공연에 대한 관람객의 몰입을 실시간으로 확인하는 지표를 개발하는 것은 관람객들의 만족도를 평가하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 잇다. 기존의 몰입도 추출 연구는 대부분 1인을 대상으로 한 연구들이며 전체 관람객들의 몰입도는 개별 몰입도를 통합하여 측정하여 왔다. 하지만, 공연장에서 관람객들의 몰입도를 개별적으로 측정하기에는 경제적으로나 환경적으로 어려운 상황이다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위하여 본 연구에서는, 공연장의 전체 관람객 몰입도를 측정하기 위하여 차영상 기반의 동기화 기법을 활용하는 모형을 제시 한다. 이 기법은 우선 카메라를 통해 관람객 영상을 수집하고, 이를 차영상 기법을 이용하여 동일 장소, 시간 내 관람객들의 움직임 변화량을 측정하여 동기화 여부를 판단하는 것이다. 본 논문에서 동기화가 되었다는 의미는 관람객들이 몰입하고 있을 때, 자극원에 대하여 동시성을 가지고 반응하는 것을 말한다. 이것을 차영상 기법을 통하여 움직임의 변화량으로 환산하고, 이것을 이용하여 동적 동기화와 정적 동기화인지 구분한다. 그런 후 전체 관람객들의 움직임 변화량들을 비교하여 관람객들의 몰입도를 판단하는 모형을 구축하는 것이다. 이 연구에서는 전체 관객의 몰입도 판단 모형을 제시하고, 실제 관객의 반응 데이터를 이용한 평가를 하여 제시한 연구모형이 실제 공연장에서 그룹 관람객들의 몰입도를 측정할 수 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구 (A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return)

  • 이현수;정승환;오경주
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제25권2호
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • 국내 NPL (Non performing loan) 시장은 1998년에 형성되었지만, 본격적으로 활성화 된 시기는 2009년으로 역사가 짧은 시장이다. 이로 인해 NPL 시장에 대한 연구도 아직까지는 활발히 진행되지 않고 있는 상황이다. 본 연구는 NPL 시장의 각 물건 별 기준 수익률 달성 유무를 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제안한다. 모델 구축에 사용되는 종속변수는 물건 별 최종 수익률이 기준 수익률 수치 도달 여부를 나타내는 이항변수를 사용하였고, 독립변수로는 물건의 특성을 나타내는 11개의 변수를 대상으로 one to one t-test와 logistic regression stepwise, decision tree를 수행하여 의미있는 7개의 독립변수를 선별하였다. 그리고 통상적으로 사용되는 기준 수익률 수치(12%)가 의미있는 기준 수치인지 확인하기 위해 수치 값을 조절해가며 종속변수를 산출하여 예측모델을 구축해보았다. 그 결과 12%의 기준 수익률 수치로 산출한 종속변수를 이용하여 구축한 예측모델의 평균 Hit ratio가 64.60%로 가장 우수하다는 결과를 얻었다. 다음으로 선별된 7개의 독립변수들과 12%를 기준으로한 수익률 달성유무 종속변수를 이용하여 판별분석, 로지스틱 회귀분석, 의사결정나무, 인공신경망, 유전자알고리즘 선형 모델의 5가지 방법론을 적용해 예측모델을 구축해보았다. 5가지 방법론으로 도출한 예측 모델 간 Hit ratio를 비교한 결과 인공신경망을 이용하여 구축한 예측모델의 Hit ratio가 67.4%로 가장 우수한 결과를 도출해내었다. 본 연구를 통해 추후 NPL시장 신규 물건 매매에 있어서 7가지의 독립변수들과 인공신경망 예측 모델을 활용하는 것이 효과적임을 증명하였다. 물건의 12% 수익률 달성 여부를 사전에 예측해봄으로써 유동화회사가 투자 의사결정을 하는 데에 도움을 줄 것으로 예상하며, 나아가 NPL 시장의 거래가 적정한 가격 선에서 진행됨으로 인해 유동성이 더욱 높아질 것이라 기대한다.

가족계획과 모자보건 통합을 위한 조산원의 투입효과 분석 -서산지역의 개입연구 평가보고- (An Intervention Study on Integration of Family Planning and Maternal/Infant Care Services in Rural Korea)

  • 방숙;한성현;이정자;안문영;이인숙;김은실;김종호
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.165-203
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    • 1987
  • This project was a service-cum-research effort with a quasi-experimental study design to examine the health benefits of an integrated Family Planning (FP)/Maternal & Child health (MCH) Service approach that provides crucial factors missing in the present on-going programs. The specific objectives were: 1) To test the effectiveness of trained nurse/midwives (MW) assigned as change agents in the Health Sub-Center (HSC) to bring about the changes in the eight FP/MCH indicators, namely; (i)FP/MCH contacts between field workers and their clients (ii) the use of effective FP methods, (iii) the inter-birth interval and/or open interval, (iv) prenatal care by medically qualified personnel, (v) medically supervised deliveries, (vi) the rate of induced abortion, (vii) maternal and infant morbidity, and (viii) preinatal & infant mortality. 2) To measure the integrative linkage (contacts) between MW & HSC workers and between HSC and clients. 3) To examine the organizational or administrative factors influencing integrative linkage between health workers. Study design; The above objectives called for quasi-experimental design setting up a study and control area with and without a midwife. An active intervention program (FP/MCH minimum 'package' program) was conducted for a 2 year period from June 1982-July 1984 in Seosan County and 'before and after' surveys were conducted to measure the change. Service input; This study was undertaken by the Soonchunhyang University in collaboration with WHO. After a baseline survery in 1981, trained nurses/midwives were introduced into two health sub-centers in a rural setting (Seosan county) for a 2 year period from 1982 to 1984. A major service input was the establishment of midwifery services in the existing health delivery system with emphasis on nurse/midwife's role as the link between health workers (nurse aids) and village health workers, and the referral of risk patients to the private physician (OBGY specialist). An evaluation survey was made in August 1984 to assess the effectiveness of this alternative integrated approach in the study areas in comparison with the control area which had normal government services. Method of evaluation; a. In this study, the primary objective was first to examine to what extent the FP/MCH package program brought about changes in the pre-determined eight indicators (outcome and impact measures) and the following relationship was first analyzed; b. Nevertheless, this project did not automatically accept the assumption that if two or more activities were integrated, the results would automatically be better than a non-integrated or categorical program. There is a need to assess the 'integration process' itself within the package program. The process of integration was measured in terms of interactive linkages, or the quantity & quality of contacts between workers & clients and among workers. Intergrative linkages were hypothesized to be influenced by organizational factors at the HSC clinic level including HSC goals, sltrurture, authority, leadership style, resources, and personal characteristics of HSC staff. The extent or degree of integration, as measured by the intensity of integrative linkages, was in turn presumed to influence programme performance. Thus as indicated diagrammatically below, organizational factors constituted the independent variables, integration as the intervening variable and programme performance with respect to family planning and health services as the dependent variable: Concerning organizational factors, however, due to the limited number of HSCs (2 in the study area and 3 in the control area), they were studied by participatory observation of an anthropologist who was independent of the project. In this observation, we examined whether the assumed integration process actually occurred or not. If not, what were the constraints in producing an effective integration process. Summary of Findings; A) Program effects and impact 1. Effects on FP use: During this 2 year action period, FP acceptance increased from 58% in 1981 to 78% in 1984 in both the study and control areas. This increase in both areas was mainly due to the new family planning campaign driven by the Government for the same study period. Therefore, there was no increment of FP acceptance rate due to additional input of MW to the on-going FP program. But in the study area, quality aspects of FP were somewhat improved, having a better continuation rate of IUDs & pills and more use of effective Contraceptive methods in comparison with the control area. 2. Effects of use of MCH services: Between the study and control areas, however, there was a significant difference in maternal and child health care. For example, the coverage of prenatal care was increased from 53% for 1981 birth cohort to 75% for 1984 birth cohort in the study area. In the control area, the same increased from 41% (1981) to 65% (1984). It is noteworthy that almost two thirds of the recent birth cohort received prenatal care even in the control area, indicating that there is a growing demand of MCH care as the size of family norm becomes smaller 3. There has been a substantive increase in delivery care by medical professions in the study area, with an annual increase rate of 10% due to midwives input in the study areas. The project had about two times greater effect on postnatal care (68% vs. 33%) at delivery care(45.2% vs. 26.1%). 4. The study area had better reproductive efficiency (wanted pregancies with FP practice & healthy live births survived by one year old) than the control area, especially among women under 30 (14.1% vs. 9.6%). The proportion of women who preferred the 1st trimester for their first prenatal care rose significantly in the study area as compared to the control area (24% vs 13%). B) Effects on Interactive Linkage 1. This project made a contribution in making several useful steps in the direction of service integration, namely; i) The health workers have become familiar with procedures on how to work together with each other (especially with a midwife) in carrying out their work in FP/MCH and, ii) The health workers have gotten a feeling of the usefulness of family health records (statistical integration) in identifying targets in their own work and their usefulness in caring for family health. 2. On the other hand, because of a lack of required organizational factors, complete linkage was not obtained as the project intended. i) In regards to the government health worker's activities in terms of home visiting there was not much difference between the study & control areas though the MW did more home visiting than Government health workers. ii) In assessing the service performance of MW & health workers, the midwives balanced their workload between 40% FP, 40% MCH & 20% other activities (mainly immunization). However, $85{\sim}90%$ of the services provided by the health workers were other than FP/MCH, mainly for immunizations such as the encephalitis campaign. In the control area, a similar pattern was observed. Over 75% of their service was other than FP/MCH. Therefore, the pattern shows the health workers are a long way from becoming multipurpose workers even though the government is pushing in this direction. 3. Villagers were much more likely to visit the health sub-center clinic in the study area than in the control area (58% vs.31%) and for more combined care (45% vs.23%). C) Organization factors (admistrative integrative issues) 1. When MW (new workers with higher qualification) were introduced to HSC, it was noted that there were conflicts between the existing HSC workers (Nurse aids with less qualification than MW) and the MW for the beginning period of the project. The cause of the conflict was studied by an anthropologist and it was pointed out that these functional integration problems stemmed from the structural inadequacies of the health subcenter organization as indicated below; i) There is still no general consensus about the objectives and goals of the project between the project staff and the existing health workers. ii) There is no formal linkage between the responsibility of each member's job in the health sub-center. iii) There is still little chance for midwives to play a catalytic role or to establish communicative networks between workers in order to link various knowledge and skills to provide better FP/MCH services in the health sub-center. 2. Based on the above findings the project recommended to the County Chief (who has power to control the administrative staff and the technical staff in his county) the following ; i) In order to solve the conflicts between the individual roles and functions in performing health care activities, there must be goals agreed upon by both. ii) The health sub·center must function as an autonomous organization to undertake the integration health project. In order to do that, it is necessary to support administrative considerations, and to establish a communication system for supervision and to control of the health sub-centers. iii) The administrative organization, tentatively, must be organized to bind the health worker's midwive's and director's jobs by an organic relationship in order to achieve the integrative system under the leadership of health sub-center director. After submitting this observation report, there has been better understanding from frequent meetings & communication between HW/MW in FP/MCH work as the program developed. Lessons learned from the Seosan Project (on issues of FP/MCH integration in Korea); 1) A majority or about 80% of the couples are now practicing FP. As indicated by the study, there is a growing demand from clients for the health system to provide more MCH services than FP in order to maintain the achieved small size of family through FP practice. It is fortunate to see that the government is now formulating a MCH policy for the year 2,000 and revising MCH laws and regulations to emphasize more MCH care for achieving a small size family through family planning practice. 2) Goal consensus in FP/MCH shouBd be made among the health workers It administrators, especially to emphasize the need of care of 'wanted' child. But there is a long way to go to realize the 'real' integration of FP into MCH in Korea, unless there is a structural integration FP/MCH because a categorical FP is still first priority to reduce the rate of population growth for economic reasons but not yet for health/welfare reasons in practice. 3) There should be more financial allocation: (i) a midwife should be made available to help to promote the MCH program and coordinate services, (in) there should be a health sub·center director who can provide leadership training for managing the integrated program. There is a need for 'organizational support', if the decision of integration is made to obtain benefit from both FP & MCH. In other words, costs should be paid equally to both FP/MCH. The integration slogan itself, without the commitment of paying such costs, is powerless to advocate it. 4) Need of management training for middle level health personnel is more acute as the Government has already constructed 90 MCH centers attached to the County Health Center but without adequate manpower, facilities, and guidelines for integrating the work of both FP and MCH. 5) The local government still considers these MCH centers only as delivery centers to take care only of those visiting maternity cases. The MCH center should be a center for the managment of all pregnancies occurring in the community and the promotion of FP with a systematic and effective linkage of resources available in the county such as i.e. Village Health Worker, Community Health Practitioner, Health Sub-center Physicians & Health workers, Doctors and Midwives in MCH center, OBGY Specialists in clinics & hospitals as practiced by the Seosan project at primary health care level.

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실용계군에 있어서 누진퇴교배에 의한 주요경제형질의 유전적 변이에 관한 연구 (Study on the Genetic Variations of the Economic Traits by Backcrossing in Commercial Chickens)

  • 이종극;오봉국
    • 한국가금학회지
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    • 제16권2호
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 1989
  • 본 연구는 실용계군에서 부계통 종계에 누진적으로 퇴교배를 수행하였을 때 변화하는 산란형질의 일반능력과 유전력 및 유전상관을 분석하므로 산란형질과 집단에 대한 유전적 변이의 특성을 구명하기 위해 수행되었다. 본 시험은 서울대학교 농과대학 실험계사에서 실용계 I 계통을 기초계군으로 사용하여 1985~1987연까지 사육된 1,230수를 이용하여 60주령까지의 각 개체별 성적을 기초로 하였으며, 교배조합별 그리고 누진퇴교배 세대별에 따른 일반능력 및 유전적 변이에 관한 결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 1. 조사된 각 형질의 일반능력($Mean\pmS$_{D}$$)은 8주령 체중이 $663.94\pm87.11$g, 20주령 체중은$1579.1\pm155.43$g, 40주령 및 60주령 체중은 각각 $2124.1\pm215.31$g, $2269.1\pm242.94$g으로 20주영 체중을 제외한 모든 체중에 대해 퇴교배에 따른 고도의 유의차를 보였다(P<0.01). 산란형질에 대한 일반능력은 초산일령(SM)이 $168.43\pm12.94$일, 60주령 까지의 총산란수(TEN)는 $214.82\pm29.82$ 개, 평균난중(AEW)은 $61.45\pm3.48$g, 60주령까지의 총산란중량(TEM)은 $13180.7\pm1823.22$g으로 평균난중(AEW)을 제외한 모든 산란형질이 퇴교배에 대한 고도의 유의차를 보이고 있다(P<0.01). 한편 퇴교배회수가 증가할수록 산란성적이 우수하게 나타나는데, 이는 실용계에서 퇴교배를 하여감에 따라 분리된 유전자가 우수한 형질을 발현하도록 하는 유전자로 고정되기 때문인 것으로 생각된다. 2. 각 형질에 대한 유전력은 다음과 같다. 초산일령(SM)과 평균난중(AEW)의 유전력은 각각 0.47~0.52, 0.40~0.54로 유전력이 비교적 높은 형질임을 알 수 있다. 그러나 총산란수(TEN)와 총산란중량(TEM)의 유전역은 각각 0.07~0.37, 0.18~0.27로 유전력이 낮은 형질임을 나타내고 있으며 모든 산란형질의 유전력이 모분산성분에 의한 추정치가 부분산성분에 의한 추정치 보다 높게 나타나서 이들 형질의 모체효과를 포함한 비상가적 유전분산의 효과를 시사하고 있다. 3. 퇴교배에 따른 유전력 변화를 부모분산성분에 의하여 살피보면 기초계군(BC0), 퇴교배 1세대(BC1), 퇴교배 2세대(BC2)로 퇴교배가 증가함에 따라 초산일령(SM)은 0.47, 0.42, 0.51 이였으며 총산란수(TEN)에서는 0.28, 0.13, 0.27으로 유전역 변화의 일정한 경향치를 보이지 않았다. 그러나 평균난중(AEW)과 총산란 중량(TEM)에서는 기초계군(BC0), 퇴교배1세대(BC1), 퇴교배2세대(BC2)로 퇴교배가 증가함에 따라 0.59, 0.43, 0.35와 0.28, 0.20, 0.18로 추정되어 뚜렷한 유전력의 감소를 보이고 있다. 이것은 퇴교배가 증가함에 따라 평균난중과 총산란중량에 대한 유전적 변이의 감소에 기인된 것으로 생각된다. 4. 산란형질간의 유전상관을 살펴보면 초산일령(SM)과 총산란수(TEN)간의 유전상관은 -0.55이고 초산일령(SM)과 총산란중량(TEM)간은 -0.42로 부의 상관을 보이고 있다. 그러나 초산일령(SM)과 평균난중(AEW)간은 0.20으로 낮은 정의 상관을 나타내고 있다. 평균난중(AEW)과 총산란수(TEN)간은 -0.29이고 평균난중(AEW)과 총산란중량(TEM)간은 0.31의 낮은 유전상관을 보이고 있다. 한편 총산란중량(TEM)과 총산란수(TEN)간은 0.82의 높은 정의 상관을 나타내므로 이상의 결과에서 총산란중량(TEM)에 관여하는 것은 평균난중(AEW) 보다는 주로 총산란수(TEN)에 기인하는 것 같다. 또한 총산란수( TEN)는 초산일령( SM)과 부의 상관관계를 보이고 있으므로 총산란중양(TEM)을 개량하기 위해서는 총산란수(TEN)를 증가시키고 초산일령(SM)을 단축시키는 것이 평균난중(AEW)을 증가시키는 것보다 더 용이하다는 것을 알 수 있다. 5. 퇴교배가 진행됨에 따라 각 형질간의 우전상관사이에서도 변화가 있었다. 퇴교배가 증가할수록 총산란중량과 총산란수간의 유전상관은 높아졌고 (BC0 : 0.79, BC1 : 0.82, BC2 : 0.91), 총산란중량과 평균난중간의 유전상관은 뚜렷한 경향치가 관측되지 않았으며 총산란중량과 초산일령간의 유전상관은 감소하였다(BC0:-0.54, BC1:-0.36, BC2 :-0.09). 그러므로 총산란중량에 큰 영향을 미친 것은 평균난중이 아니라 총산란수이며 퇴교배가 진행될수록 초산일령의 효과는 감소하였다.

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