• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.75-82
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• 2022

The purpose of the Consumer sentiment index survey is to determine the consumer's economic situation and consumption spending plan, and it is used as basic data for diagnosing economic phenomena and forecasting the future economic direction. The purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the future Consumer sentiment index using the ARMA model based on the past consumer index. Consumer sentiment index is determined according to consumer trends, so it can reflect consumer realities. The consumer sentiment index is greatly influenced by economic indicators such as the base interest rate and consumer price index, as well as various external economic factors. If the consumer sentiment index, which fluctuates greatly due to consumer economic conditions, can be predicted, it will be useful information for households, businesses, and policy authorities. This study predicted the Consumer sentiment index for the next 3 years (36 months in total) by using time series analysis using the ARMA model. As a result of the analysis, it shows a characteristic of repeating an increase or a decrease every month according to the consumer trend. This study provides empirical results of prediction of Consumer sentiment index through statistical techniques, and has a contribution to raising the need for policy authorities to prepare flexible operating policies in line with economic trends.

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.27-37
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• 2017

Domestic government debt securities is one of the steps which is taken by the government of Indonesia as a major source of financial budget, covering for the budget deficit, debt payments and interest debt. The purposes of this research are to know the development of budget deficits, government debt and impact of domestic government debt securities against economic growth in Indonesia. Method of analysis used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analyzing the impact of the domestic debt against economic growth in Indonesia. This research uses time series data from 1997 to 2014. Total government debt and domestic government debt securities in Indonesia increased during the last five years. The average of domestic government securities was above 50 percent of the total government debt. Estimated results showed domestic government debt securities has a positive and significant effect to economic growth. Official development assistance (ODA) has a negative effect to economic growth. Other variables such as the gross fixed capital formation and receipt of remittance have positive and significant effect, total imports and government expenditure have negative and significant effect against economic growth.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10a
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• pp.37-39
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• 2000

The purpose of this paper is to present a neural network model based on change-point detection for the prediction of the U.S. Treasury Securities. Interest rates have been studied by a number of researchers since they strongly affect other economic and financial parameters. Contrary to other chaotic financial data, the movement of interest rates has a series of change points due to the monetary policy of the U.S. government. The basic concept of this proposed model is to obtain intervals divided by change points, to identify them as change-point groups, and to use them in interest rates forecasting. The proposed model consists of three stages. The first stage is to detect successive change points in the interest rates dataset. The second stage is to forecast the change-point group with the backpropagation neural network (BPN). The final stage is to forecast the output with BPN. This study then examines the predictability of the integrated neural network model for interest rates forecasting using change-point detection.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.37-68
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• 2017

This study analyzes the relationship between household debts and married female's labor supply. For doing this we construct effective interest rate faced by each household using interest paid amount and household financial debt amount. The effective interests rate for the households which have no financial debt are estimated by Heckman Selection model. The estimation results show that the increase in effective interest rate has led to the expansion of married women's the labor market participation. This suggests a possibility that negative scenarios resulting from an increase in interest rate can be partially offset by an increase in household labor supply and a rise in labor income.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.57-65
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility of both Islamic and conventional stock market in Indonesia with the aim of identifying the most appropriate model for risk management practice. The study considers GARCH as a genre of model to measure the volatility of stock market movement. The results support the view that each model shows specific volatility from both Islamic and conventional stock market in Indonesia. In Islamic stock market, volatility is affected by exchange rate and money supply (M1) but not interest rate as interest is prohibited in Islam. However, interest rate is found as a principal factor that affects volatility of conventional stock market. The outcomes of this paper are of particular significance to policy makers, as it provides guidelines to maintain economic health. Furthermore, the findings may assist practitioners to understand the consequences of macroeconomic factors such as exchange rate, money supply and interest rate, which are very crucial for the market stability of Indonesian stock market. The paper enhances the understanding of stock market volatility and proposes guidelines risk management practices.

• The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2018

Objectives: This study aimed identify of the level and effect of the e-health literacy and health behavior in health science majors Methods: The data was collected from March 5 to March 15, 2018 for student majoring in health science at a university in the C city. The data were analyzed with the SPSS 21.0. Results: First, the e-health literacy were statistically significant in grades (F=5.769, p=0.001), health interest (F=10.553, p<0.001) and health care time (F=3.841, p=0.023), and health behavior were statistically significant in subjective health condition (F=5.476, p=0.05), health interest (F=16.716, p<0.001), and health care time (F=28.479, p<0.001). Second, the e-health literacy were correlated with grades, health care time, economic level and health interest, and health behavior were related to health care time, e-health literacy, subjective health condition and health interest. Third, health behavior related factors were health care time, e-health literacy, grades, subjective health condition, and health interest. Conclusion: The related knowledge and skills should be applied to basic classes in order to ensure that health science majors care can accurately utilize the information on the e-health.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.31-36
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• 2010

Rising interest rates positively affect investment in construction, while falling interest rates affect it negatively. In other words, the interest rate is one of the most critical factors affecting the construction sector. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between the annual interest rate and construction contracts, and to present a model for quantitatively forecasting the economic performance of the construction sector. Based on the statistical data of interest rate changes for 19 years (from 1991 to 2009), this research induces an equation through regression analysis that incorporates interest rate and construction contract amounts as independent and dependent variables, respectively. The result of the analysis shows that, in the building and private sector, the interest rates are closely related to, with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.85. It was also indicated that the contract amounts of private and building sectors may increase quite rapidly in 2012.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.155-160
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• 2018

The article studies the effect of US real effective exchange rate and short-term interest rate on Chnise exports and imports using the EGARCH-GED model. This article analyze the effect of US major economic variables on China's exports and imports as the US pushes for interest rate hikes and worsens trade wars with China. The main results are as follows. The US short-term interest rate has a significant positive effect on China's trade volume. Even in the case of China's exports, US short-term interest rate has a significant positive effect. However, in the case of China's imports, in contrast to exports, US short-term interest rate do not have a significant effects and US real effective exchange rate has a significant positive effect. On the other hand, China's policy interest rate has a negative impact on China's imports and not statistically significant, but it has a significant positive effect on China's exports.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.53-60
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• 2019

Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series. Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876. Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.

• Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.773-783
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• 1998

The heating system for apartment complex may be classified as old systems including central system with steam boiler(S1), gas engine driven heat pump system(S2), system using waste heat(S3) and new systems including mechanical vapor re-compression system with flashing heat exchangers(S4), system using methanol(S5), system using metal hydride (S6). The purpose of the present study is to suggest optimal heating system by technically, economically and environmentally evaluating old and new heating systems of apartment complex from 500 to 3,000 households. Economic evaluation based on the technical evaluation results which estimated heat transfer area of heat exchangers and capacity of equipments was estimated initial investment cost, annual operating cost and relative payback period by considering annual increasing rates of energy cost and interest. Environmental evaluation provided annual generation rate of carbon dioxide. Initial investment cost was cheap in the order of S6, S5, S3, S2, S4, S1, annual operating cost was cheap in the order of S1, S2, S4, S5 and relative payback period was short in the order of S6, S5, S2, S3 and S4. Relative payback period was within 8 years for all scenarios of 3,000 households, and was increased as annual increasing rates of energy cost and interest were increased. As transportation pipe length was increased twice, payback period was increased by 1.4~2.6 time. The effect of temperatures of waste gas and waste water on the relative payback period was small within 0.8 years. The annual generation rate of carbon dioxide was big in the order of S4, S2 and S1. S4 was the most economic system among whole scenarios when S1 was replaced with other scenarios.