• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

Purpose - This work analyzes, in detail, the specification of vector error correction model (VECM) and thus examines the relationships and impact among seven economic variables for USA - balance on current account (BCA), index of stock (STOCK), gross domestic product (GDP), housing price indices (HOUSING), a measure of the money supply that includes total currency as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements and other larger liquid assets (M3), real rate of interest (IR_REAL) and household credits (LOAN). In particular, we search for the main explanatory variables that have an effect on stock and real estate market, respectively and investigate the causal and dynamic associations between them. Research design, data, and methodology - We perform the time series vector error correction model to infer the dynamic relationships among seven variables above. This work employs the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root techniques to test for stationarity among seven variables under consideration, and Johansen cointegration test to specify the order or the number of cointegration relationship. Granger causality test is exploited to inspect for causal relationship and, at the same time, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are checked for both short-run and long-run association among the seven variables by EViews 9.0. The underlying model was analyzed by using 108 realizations from Q1 1990 to Q4 2016 for USA. Results - The results show that all the seven variables for USA have one unit root and they are cointegrated with at most five and three cointegrating equation for USA. The vector error correction model expresses a long-run relationship among variables. Both IR_REAL and M3 may influence real estate market, and GDP does stock market in USA. On the other hand, GDP, IR_REAL, M3, STOCK and LOAN may be considered as causal factors to affect real estate market. Conclusions - The findings indicate that both stock market and real estate market can be modelled as vector error correction specification for USA. In addition, we can detect causal relationships among variables and compare dynamic differences between countries in terms of stock market and real estate market.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.136-145
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• 2007

Redevelopment about land that nature green tract of land and dilapidated city equipment including greenbelt make a strong resolution in city with change of town planning area according to growth of city is consisting. Formation of city of these phenomenon is old and personality of city changes rapidly, the speed becomes fast. Phenomenon that Busan moves to neighborhood area as convenience of traffic of industrial facilities that was on spearhead of economic growth move to outer wall of city and port facilities is deterioration, as becoming decline Tuesday industry form of city in the second industry the third phenomenon that alter by the 4th happen and case of residential area old residential area of inland area change for the worse of habit be and impulse to steal is augmented in the 1970, 80 is appearing. Hereupon the result inland area which analyzes the change with the use area compared to the area where it is coming in contact to the coast the diffusion of the residential area or the business park appears area, the factory back of nine cities acts Gangseo-gu or Gijang-gun of the industry area this with the fact that it changes.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.281-314
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• 2004

This paper theoretically formulated and empirically explored the relationship between exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) for (average) market price and an individual country's price, using steel products data in the US market, with special reference to two major steel exporting countries, Korea and Japan. It was found that the direction of market ERPT can be different from that of individual ERPT that each exporter experiences, due to strategic interactions among producers and different parameters. Vector error correction (VEC) models and impulse response analysis were used with the statistical inference based on the bootstrap-after- bootstrap of Kilian (1998) for short-run, and the fully modified estimation of Phillips and Hansen (1990) was used for long-run. Empirical results indicate that market ERPT in the US market due to changes in Korea-US exchange rates is different from those due to changes in Japan-US exchange rates. The framework developed in this study indicates that this phenomenon is attributed to either (i) the two countries have individual ERPTs of different magnitudes and directions for the products in the US market, or (ii) the pricing strategies of the other exporters' (to the US steel market) respond differently depending on whether the price of the product from Korea changes or that from Japan does. As each exporter's ERPT can be significantly different, and market response to each country's ERPT can be also different, this study concludes that it is crucial for an exporter to understand how competitors in the market respond to changes in its price, as well as to understand how its price changes when the relevant exchange rate fluctuates.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.43-54
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• 2013

This This paper investigates the variation of the factors to determinate housing price in Seoul metropolitan area after sub-prime financial crisis, in Korea, using a VAR model. The model includes housing price and housing rent (Jeonse) in Seoul metropolitan area from 1999 to 2011, and uses interest rate, real GDP, KOSPI, Producer Price Index and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis to grasp the dynamic relation between a variable of macro economy and and a variable of housing price. Data is classified to 2 groups before and after the 3rd quater of 2008, when sub-prime crisis occurred; one is from the 1st quater of 1999 to the 3rd quater of 2008, and the other is from the 2nd quater of 1999 and the 4th quater of 2011. As a result, comparing before and after sub-prime crisis, housing price is more influenced by its own variation or Jeonse price's variation instead of interest rate and KOSPI. Both before and after sub-prime financial crisis, Jeonse price is also influenced by its own variation and housing price. While after sub-prime financial crisis, influences of Producer Price Index, KOSPI and interest rate were weakened, influence of real GDP is expanded. As housing price and housing rent are more influenced by real economy factors such as GDP, its own variation than before sub-prime financial crisis, the recent trend that the house prices is declined is difficult to be converted, considering domestic economic recession and uncertainty, continued by Europe financial crisis. In the future to activate the housing business, it ia necessary to promote purchasing power rather than relaxation of financial and supply regulation.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.141-153
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• 2022

This study tried to understand the structural relationship of consumer characteristics on consumer emotions and satisfaction in online shopping. First, consumer characteristics derived various tendencies through previous studies. Next, consumer emotion was defined as positive and negative emotions in the six purchasing processes from information search to use, and satisfaction was defined as the overall satisfaction of the purchasing experience. To this end, this study measured consumer satisfaction and positive/negative emotions in the six consumption processes in their 20s and 40s with online clothing shopping experience within the last month. Finally, structural equation modeling(SEM) was conducted. As a result, the model fit was good, and impulse purchase tendency, conspicuous consumption tendency, innovation tendency, and trendy shopping tendency only affected negative emotions. On the other hand, it was confirmed that information search tendency, hedonic shopping tendency, and economic shopping tendency directly affect positive emotions and indirectly affect consumer satisfaction. Through this, implications for improving the consumer experience in online shopping were presented by identifying consumer characteristics and enhancing consumer emotions.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.1-32
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• 2009

This study examines the changes of income, everyday life and living condition of consumer in the aftermath of financial crisis. In this period financial crisis was the crucial factor behind various social problems such as the dissolution of families and individuals. This research explores the range and degree of impact on individuals and social groups after the financial crisis. We explore the social mobility in terns of maintaining middle class and falling into the lower class measured by middle class identification. The 60% of the middle class before the financial crisis maintained the middle class position and the rest of people left out of middle class and fell into lower class. The 60% of those who has been maintained and has just became the members of middle class were college - educated people. The great part of people whose income and assets has increased after financial crisis belongs to college - educated group. Many of those whose income have decreased belong to the high school educated group and blow, the older than 50 years old, self - employed without employee and unpaid family employee. Those whose income and assets decreased and those who experienced downward mobility have undergone changes in everyday life and living conditions as a consumer. Many of them experienced the unemployment, nonpayment or credit - delinquency, dissolution of family, worsening health condition, depression, feeling the impulse to commit suicide simultaneously. The poor consumer disposition, reduction of living expenses, sound consumer culture have expanded to people since economic crisis. The middle class reported that the cost of private education often goes beyond the family ability to pay. The lower class has suffered from the cost of living. In a meanwhile luxury goods preference, consumer consciousness for status symbol have continuously increased among all the classes since 1997. Thus fluctuations of one's income and social mobility during past 10 years were some of the major determinants which brought about the various damaging life events, changes of living conditions and everyday lives as a consumer.