• 통상정보연구
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.329-347
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model. The results indicate that uni-dierctional causality between exchange rate and economic growth is detected. Exchange rate impacts on economic growth, but economic growth don't impact on exchange rate. The analysis of impulse reaction function shows that the impulse of exchange rate impacts on Korean economic growth in negative direction. We can infer policy suggestion as follows: The fluctuation of exchange rate much affects economic growth, thus we must make a stable policy of exchange rate to continue economic growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권5호
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• pp.91-102
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• 2020

The study investigates the relationship between the inflation rate and economic growth to find out the optimal inflation threshold for economic growth. Therefore, this study applied an ordinary least square model (OLS) and the ordinal regression model, and collected the time-series data from 1996 to 2017 to test the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the short-term and long-term. The sample fits the model and is statistically significant. The study showed that 96.6% of correlation between inflation rate and economic growth are close and 4.5% of optimal inflation threshold is appropriate for economic growth. It finds that the optimal inflation threshold is base to perform economic growth, besides the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy appropriately. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; have appropriate policies to regulate inflation to stimulate economic growth over the long term; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the optimal inflation threshold.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.5-11
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• 2016

This study investigates the impact of Malaysia's capital market and other key determinants on Economic Growth from the period of 1988 to 2012. The key determinants studied are foreign direct investment and real interest rate. This study also examines the long run and short run relationship between the economic growth and capital market, foreign direct investment, and real interest rate by using bound testing cointegration of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) version of ARDL model. The empirical results of the study suggest that there is long- run cointegration among the capital market, foreign direct investment, real Interest rate and economic growth. The result also suggests that capital market and real interest rate have positive impact on economic growth in the short run and long run. Foreign direct investment does not show positive impact on economic growth in the short run but it does in the long run.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권12호
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• pp.295-303
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• 2021

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of oil prices on economic growth and exchange rate in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2020. For this purpose, the linear and nonlinear ARDL models are estimated. The linear ARDL model shows that the oil price and economic growth are cointegrated. Moreover, the two variables have a significant positive association in the long run. However, the oil price has no significant impact on the exchange rate. When estimating the nonlinear ARDL model, it has been shown that oil price is only cointegrated with economic growth but not with the exchange rate. The estimation of nonlinear effects using the nonlinear ARDL model shows that economic growth is affected by both positive and negative oil shocks in the long run. However, the impact of positive shocks is higher than those of negative shocks. Moreover, results show that the short-run effects of positive and negative oil shocks are not statistically significant. Regarding the exchange rate, our results show that the effects of positive and negative oil shocks are not statistically significant. Consequently, this study concludes that the oil price has an asymmetric effect on economic growth in Saudi Arabia, but not on the exchange rate.

• 지역연구
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.39-52
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• 1994

This paper primarily aims to analyze the growth rate differentials of the economic activities in chung-Nam area. The research has been undertaken to find out the potentials of the economic activities and economic bases in the area. To analyze the economic potentials of the industries, the study employed the economic Growth Rate Differential Analysis by Henderson which is revised form of Shift-Share Analysis Methods. The research employed the employment data according to the standardized two-digit-classification-system during the period of 10 years from 1981 through 1991. The Growth Rate Differential Analysis calculates Total Growth Differentials which are dicomposed into two parts: Weight Part and Rate Part. Total Growth Differential can be calculated as the difference between national growth rate and regional growth rate by industry. The foundings are as follows: First, the economic bases of Chung-Nam area were found to be very weak, largely depending on primary industries such as agriculture and fisheries. Second, there was a great decline in urban industries in Tae Joeon, Cheon An and other cities over period of 1971-1981. It is strongly recommended that the planned items and products of each industrial complex must be reorgnized in a fashion to match those with high competitive power found in this research.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.135-152
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• 2004

Ever since Benoit's(1973, 1978) study, the relationship between defense spending and economic growth has been the subject of extensive empirical works. While a number of studies have reported that higher defense expenditure stimulate economic growth, many other studies have reported that an increase in military burden may hinder economic growth. To the extent that countries differ substantially in socioeconomic structures, the effects of defense spending cannot be generalized across countries. In this paper, Granger causality tests are performed between Korean defense expenditure and economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate during the period from 1970 to 2002. The results show that Korean defense expenditure did not affect economic growth and unemployment rate. However, Korean defense expenditure caused consumption and inflation to decrease and investment to increase. On the other hand Korean defense expenditure was not Granger-caused by economic growth, consumption, investment, inflation and unemployment rate. In conclusion, the opportunity cost of Korean defense expenditure seemed to be relatively moderate considering Korean security environment. Even if it was not statistically significant, Korean defense burden at least did not bother economic growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권11호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia's economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.

• 유통과학연구
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• 제22권8호
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• pp.17-27
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• 2024

Economic growth is influenced by various factors, including support from the banking world in channeling funds ownedthrough bank credit which will be a stimulus from economic activities as a source of economic growth. Purpose: Thisstudy aims to analyze the determinants of bank lending in supporting regional economic growth in South Sulawesi Province. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This study uses secondary data taken from banking data and analyzed using path analysis Data analysis is carried out using the help of SPSS statistical analysis tools. Results: Non-Performance Loan, Three Partied Fund, Inflation, Exchange Rate directly affect economic growth. For the analysis of the indirect effect of Non-performance loans and Three Partied Funds have an indirect effect on economic growth through lending while the Loan to deposit Ratio, Inflation and exchange rate do not indirectly affect economic growththrough lending. Credit disbursement has a positive and significant effect on economic growth Conclusion: Economicgrowth of a region is influenced by many factors and these factors are influences from the banking world, the results ofthis study show that economic growth is strongly influenced by bank support through lending to support the economy by considering other factors such as interest rates and currency exchange rates

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권7호
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• pp.229-239
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• 2020

This article aims to measure the impact of economic growth and urbanization on poverty reduction in Vietnam, and verify whether economic growth and urbanization will help reduce poverty rates. Data for this study are tabular data related to growth, urbanization and poverty at the provincial level for the period of nine years, from 2006 to 2014 provided by the Vietnam General Statistics Office and the Vietnam General Department of Customs. The level of economic growth and urbanization mentioned in the study is reflected in such indicators as GDP value, exports value, imports value, urbanization rate and employment rate. The authors used logistic regression models with fixed-effects and logistic regression models with random effects. With 5% confidence level tested by the Chi-Square test of Hausman trial with the fixed-effect model, research results show that: (1) factors with significant negative impact on the poverty rate include imports value, urbanization rate and, employment rate; (2) factors that do not affect the poverty rate include exports value and GDP value. Based on the research results, this study proposes a number of policy recommendations to help promote economic growth, to sustain the urbanization process, and to contribute directly and positively to poverty reduction in Vietnam.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.175-219
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• 2024

This study investigates the impact of inflation rate fluctuations on economic growth in China, with a particular focus on potential non-linear characteristics. The global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic notably heightens the study's relevance. The research that the unidirectional causal relationship from inflation to economic growth in China first strengthens and then weakens over time. Furthermore, there is an inflation rate threshold effect on economic growth, identified at 2%. Below this threshold, inflation positively influences economic growth, whereas above it, the impact turns negative. This finding underscores the importance of balancing economic growth with inflation control in the formulation of monetary policy.