• Title/Summary/Keyword: Earth system model

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The Development of Ensemble Statistical Prediction Model for Changma Precipitation (장마 강수를 위한 앙상블 통계 예측 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Yong;Seo, Kyong-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.533-540
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    • 2014
  • Statistical forecast models for the prediction of the summertime Changma precipitation have been developed in this study. As effective predictors for the Changma precipitation, the springtime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic (NA1), the North Pacific (NPC) and the tropical Pacific Ocean (CNINO) has been suggested in Lee and Seo (2013). To further improve the performance of the statistical prediction scheme, we select other potential predictors and construct 2 additional statistical models. The selected predictors are the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and the Bering Sea (BS) SST anomalies, and the spring Eurasian snow cover anomaly (EUSC). Then, using the total three statistical prediction models, a simple ensemble-mean prediction is performed. The resulting correlation skill score reaches as high as ~0.90 for the last 21 years, which is ~16% increase in the skill compared to the prediction model by Lee and Seo (2013). The EUSC and BS predictors are related to a strengthening of the Okhotsk high, leading to an enhancement of the Changma front. The NIO predictor induces the cyclonic anomalies to the southwest of the Korean peninsula and southeasterly flows toward the peninsula, giving rise to an increase in the Changma precipitation.

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-PRECISION EPHEMERIDES OF SOLAR SYSTEM (II) (태양계 행성의 고정확도 위치계산에 과한 연구(II))

  • 신종섭;안영숙;박필호;박은광;박종옥
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.78-89
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    • 1995
  • We solved n-body problem about 9 planets, moon, and 4 minor planets with relativistic effect related to the basic equation of motion of the solar system. Perturbations including flgure potential of the earth and the moon and solid earth tidal effect were considered on this relativistic equation of motion. The orientations employed precession and nutation for the earth, and lunar libration model with Eckert's lunar libration model based on J2000.0 were used for the moon. Finally, we developed heliocentric ecliptic position and velocity of each planet using this software package named the SSEG (Solar System Ephemerides Generator) by long-term (more than 100 years) simulation on CRAY-2S super computer, through testing each subroutine on personal computer and short-time(within 800 dyas) running on SUN3/280 workstation. Epoch of input data JD2440400.5 were adopted in order to compare our results to the data archived from JPL's DE 200 by Standish and Newhall. Above equation of motion was integrated numerically having 1-day step-size interval through 40,000 days (about 110 years long) as total computing interval. We obtained high-precision ephemerides of the planets with maximum error, less $than\pm2\times10^{-8}AU(\approx\pm3km)$ compared with DE200 data (except for mars and moon).

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Development of Parsimonious Semi-Distributed Hydrologic Partitioning Model Based on Soil Moisture Storages (토양수분 저류 기반의 간결한 준분포형 수문분할모형 개발)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Kim, Ryoungeun;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.229-244
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    • 2020
  • Hydrologic models, as a useful tool for understanding the hydrologic phenomena in the watershed, have become more complex with the increase of computer performance. The hydrologic model, with complex configurations and powerful performance, facilitates a broader understanding of the effects of climate and soil in hydrologic partitioning. However, the more complex the model is, the more effort and time is required to drive the model, and the more parameters it uses, the less accessible to the user and less applicable to the ungauged watershed. Rather, a parsimonious hydrologic model may be effective in hydrologic modeling of the ungauged watershed. Thus, a semi-distributed hydrologic partitioning model was developed with minimal composition and number of parameters to improve applicability. In this study, the validity and performance of the proposed model were confirmed by applying it to the Namgang Dam, Andong Dam, Hapcheon Dam, and Milyang Dam watersheds among the Nakdong River watersheds. From the results of the application, it was confirmed that despite the simple model structure, the hydrologic partitioning process of the watershed can be modeled relatively well through three vertical layers comprising the surface layer, the soil layer, and the aquifer. Additionally, discussions were conducted on antecedent soil moisture conditions widely applied to stormwater estimation using the soil moisture data simulated by the proposed model.

Ground Base Laser Torque Applied on LEO Satellites of Various Geometries

  • Khalifa, N.S.
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.484-490
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    • 2012
  • This paper is devoted to investigate the feasibility of using a medium power ground-based laser to produce a torque on LEO satellites of various shapes. The laser intensity delivered to a satellite is calculated using a simple model of laser propagation in which a standard atmospheric condition and linear atmospheric interaction mechanism is assumed. The laser force is formulated using a geocentric equatorial system in which the Earth is an oblate spheroid. The torque is formulated for a cylindrical satellite, spherical satellites and for satellites of complex shape. The torque algorithm is implemented for some sun synchronous low Earth orbit cubesats. Based on satellites perigee height, the results demonstrate that laser torque affecting on a cubesat has a maximum value in the order of $10^{-9}$ which is comparable with that of solar radiation. However, it has a minimum value in the order of $10^{-10}$ which is comparable with that of gravity gradient. Moreover, the results clarify the dependency of the laser torque on the orbital eccentricity. As the orbit becomes more circular it will experience less torque. So, we can conclude that the ground based laser torque has a significant contribution on the low Earth orbit cubesats. It can be adjusted to obtain the required control torque and it can be used as an active attitude control system for cubesats.

A STUDY ON THE MOHO UNDULATION OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA FROM SATELLITE GRAVITY DATA

  • Yu, Sang-Hoon;Hwang, Jong-Sun;Min, Kyung-Duck
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.589-592
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    • 2005
  • Gravity characteristics and Moho undulations are investigated in the Korean peninsula by using satellite gravity data. According to the development of satellite geodesy, gravity potential models which have high accuracy and resolution were released. Using the EIGEN-CGOIC model based on low orbit satellite data such as CHAMP and GRACE, geoid and gravity anomaly were calculated by spherical harmonic analysis. The study area is located at $123^{\circ}\sim132^{\circ}E, 33^{\circ}\sim43^{\circ}$N including Korea. Free-air anomalies, which show the effect of terrain, have the values between $-37\sim724 mgal. After Bouguer correction, the range of simple Bouguer anomalies is $-221\sim246$ mgal. Complete Bouguer anomalies after terrain correction increase from continent to marine. This phenomenon is related rise of Moho discontinuity. The cut-frequency for extraction of Moho undulation was determined by power spectrum analysis, and then 3D inversion modeling was implemented. The mean, maximum, minimum, and standard deviation of Moho depth undulation are -26, -36, -8, and 4.9 krn, respectively.

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Classification of Synoptic Meteorological Conditions for the Medium or Long Term Atmospheric Environmental Assessment in Urban Scale (도시규모 중·장기 대기질영향평가를 위한 종관기상조건의 분류)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hee;Son, Hye-Young;Kim, Ji-A
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2007
  • In case there is a need to run the multi-year urban scale air qulaity model, it is a difficult task due to the computational demand, requiring the statistical approach for the long time atmospheric environmental assessment. In an effort to approach toward long term urban assessment, the sixteen synoptic meteorological conditions are statistically classified from the estimated geostrophic wind speeds and directions of 850 hPa geopotential height field during 2000 ~ 2005. The geostrophic wind directions are subdivided into four even intervals (north, east, south, and west), geostrophic wind speeds into two classes(${\leq}5m/s$ and >5m/s), and daily mean cloud amount into 2 classes(${\leq}5/10$ and >5/10), which result into sixteen classes of the synoptic meteorological cases for each season. The frequency distributions for each 16 synoptic meteorological case are examined and some discussions on how these synoptic classifications can be used in the environmental assessment are presented.

Numerical Simulation for Recirculation of Air Mass in the Coastal Region Using Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (라그랑지안 입자확산모델을 이용한 광양만 권역에서의 공기괴 재순환현상 수치모의)

  • Lee, Hwa-Woon;Lee, Hyun-Mi;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Choi, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-170
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    • 2010
  • Air mass recirculation is a common characteristic in the coastal area as a result of the land-sea breeze circulation. This study simulates the recirculation of air mass over the Gwangyang Bay using WRF-FLEXPART and offers a basic information about the effective domain size that can reflect recirculation. For this purpose, WRF is set up four nested domains and three cases are selected. Subsequently FLEXPART is operated on the basis of WRF output. During the clear summer days with weak wind speed, particles that emitted from Yeosu national industrial complex and Gwangyang iron works flow into emission sources because of the land-sea breeze. When land-sea breeze is strengthen, the recirculation phenomena appears clearly. However particles aren't recirculated under weak synoptic condition. Also plume trajectory is analyzed and as a consequence, the smallest domain area have to be multiplied by 1.3 to understand recirculated dispersion pattern of particles.

Impact of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperatures on the Simulated Wind Resources in the Southeastern Coast of the Korean Peninsula (고해상도 해수면온도자료가 한반도 남동해안 풍력자원 수치모의에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hwa-Woon;Cha, Yeong-Min;Lee, Soon-Hwan;Kim, Dong-Hyeok
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.171-184
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    • 2010
  • Accurate simulation of the meteorological field is very important to assess the wind resources. Some researchers showed that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a leading role on the local meterological simulation. New Generation Sea Surface Temperature (NGSST), Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA), and Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature (RTG SST) have different spatial distribution near the coast and OSTIA shows the best accuracy compared with buoy data in the southeastern coast of the Korean Peninsula. Those SST products are used to initialize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model for November 13-23 2008. The simulation of OSTIA shows better result in comparison with NGSST and RTG SST. NGSST shows a large difference with OSTIA in horizontal and vertical wind fields during the weak synoptic condition, but wind power density shows a large difference during strong synoptic condition. RTG SST shows the similar patterns but smaller the magnitude and the extent.

ANALYSIS OF THE CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT GYEONG-GANG FAULT ZONE THROUGH REMOTE SENSING TECHNIQUES

  • Hwang, Jin-Kyong;Choi, Jong-Kuk;Won, Joong-Sun
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2008.10a
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    • pp.196-199
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    • 2008
  • Lineament is defined generally as a linear feature or pattern on interpretation of a satellite image and indicates the geological structures such as faults and fractures. For this reason, a lineament extraction and analysis using remote sensing images have been widely used for mapping large areas. The Gyeong-gang Fault is a NNE trending structure located in Gangwon-do and Kyeonggi-do district. However, a few geological researches on that fault have been carried out and its trace or continuity is ambiguous. In this study, we investigate the geologic features at Gyeong-gang Fault Zone using LANDSAT ETM+ satellite image and SRTM digital elevation model. In order to extract the characteristics of geologic features effectively, we transform the LANDSAT ETM+ image using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and create a shade relief from SRTM data with various illumination angles. The results show that it is possible to identify the dimensions and orientations of the geologic features at Gyeong-gang Fault Zone using remote sensing data. An aerial photograph interpretation and a field work will be future tasks for more accurate analysis in this area.

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The Effect of Atmospheric Flow Field According to the Urban Roughness Parameter and the Future Development Plan on Urban Area (도심 실제 거칠기 적용과 장래 도심 개발계획에 따른 국지 기상장 변화 수치 모의)

  • Choi, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Kim, Min-Jung
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.703-714
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we analyzed the impact of orographic and thermal forcing on the atmospheric flow field over the urban metropolitan areas on urban artificial buildings and future development plan. Several numerical experiments have been undertaken in order to clarify the impacts of the future development plan on urban area by analyzing practical urban ground conditions, we revealed that there were large differences in the meteorological differences in each case. The prognostic meteorological fields over complex areas of Seoul, Korea are generated by the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model(MM5). we carried out a comparative examination on the meteorological fields of topography and land-use that had building information and future development plan. A higher wind speed at daytimes tends to be forecasted when using new topography and land use data that have a high resolution with an appropriate limitation to the mixing height and the nocturnal boundary layer(NCB). During nighttime periods, since radiation cooling development is stronger after development plan, the decreased wind speed is often generated.