• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.189-192
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• 2005

Desertification is one of the main global environmental phenomena. It has resulted in deterioration environment and poor economy, and imposed threat to the surviving environment of the overall mankind. Therefore, creating of methods for monitoring and estimate of risk desertification are necessary. Early warning system is one of important ways for monitoring and forecasting of desertification. Remote Sensing and GIS technology are as suitable tools and methods for early warning system. In this aim, we have evaluated of applications of remote sensing and GIS in monitoring and estimating desertification process (case study in Fars Province of Iran). In this research, we have considered erosion and vegetation cover parameters as main factors affecting in desertification process. The result shows that remote sensing and GIS technology could be useful in evaluation of desertification as one method for desertification early warning. Also, Results suggested that erosion and plant cover are affecting in develop the desertification process in study area.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2005.09a
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• pp.68-70
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• 2005

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.26
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• pp.111-117
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• 1992

In the stock marketing. investor needs speedy and accurate decision making for the investment. A stock exchange index provides the important index of the early of 1993 in Korea using Fuzzy Delphi Method(F. D. M) which is widely used to a mid and long range forecasting in decision making problem. In the Fuzzy Delphi method, considerably qualified experts an first requested to give their opinion seperately and without intercommunication. The forecasting data of experts consist of Triangular Fuzzy Number (T.F.N) which represents the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic forecast of a stock exchange index. A statistical analysis and dissemblance index are then made of these subject data. These new information are then transmitted to the experts once again, and the process of reestimation is continued until the process converges to a reasonable stable forecast of stock exchange index. The goal of this research is to forecast the stock exchange index using F.D.M. in which subjective data of experts are transformed into quasi -objective data index by some statistical analysis and fuzzy operations. (a) A long range forecasting problem must be considered as an uncertain but not random problem. The direct use of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy methods seems to be more compatible and well suited. (b) The experts use their individual competency and subjectivity and this is the very reason why we propose the use of fuzzy concepts. (c) If you ask an expert the following question: Consider the forecasting of the price index of stocks in the near future. This experts wi11 certainly be more comfortable giving an answer to this question using three types of values: the maximum value, the proper value, and the minimum value rather than an answer in terms of the probability.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.115-122
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• 1992

Stochastic rainfall-runoff process model which is mainly used in real-time streamflow forecasting is Transfer Function(TF) model that has a simple structure and can be easy to formulate state-space model. However, in order to forecast the streamflow accurately in real-time using the TF model, it is not only necessary to determine accurate structure of the model but also required to reduce forecasting error in early stage. In this study, after introducing 5-day Antecedent Precipitation Index (API5), which represents the initial soil moisture condition of the watershed, by using the threshold concept, the TF models in each API5 are identified by Box-Jenkins method and the results are compared with each other.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.37C no.12
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• pp.1263-1270
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• 2012

Livestock disease that decreases the farm productivity and income leads to not only financial loss but also national loss from the spread of contagious disease. The purpose of this paper is to propose a livestock disease forecasting system that can diagnose disease of livestock at an early stage based on the livestock activity and body temperature. The proposed livestock disease forecasting system collect data on livestock activity and body temperature using a acceleration sensor and thermal imaging camera and comparing the data with control according to disease. It is expected that, this system can be accurately identify and prevent spread of livestock disease beforehand to minimize damages caused by disease to improve the productivity and the rate of return of livestock farms.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.105-117
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• 2016

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm's bankruptcy risk level. The risk factors are drawn from industry uncertainty attributes categorized as uncertainties of input market (inbound supply), and product market (outbound demand). On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures, relevant inbound and outbound uncertainty attributes and corresponding risk factors. Subsequently, publicly available macro-economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag. The findings offers useful insights to incorporate supply chain risk to the body of firm's bankruptcy risk level prediction literature.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Educational Facilities
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.4-16
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• 2008

BTL(Build-Transfer-Lease) Project for Education Facilities is contracted as a package which consists of several education facilities and its maintenance period is 20 years. Thus, total cost variation largely depends on the accuracy of the maintenance cost forecasting in the early stage in the life cycle of the BTL Projects. This research develops a method using complete linkage algorithm and branch & bound algorithm to help in finding optimal bundling combination. The result of this research suggests more reasonable and effective forecasting method for the maintenance bundle in BTL projects.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.913-916
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• 2005

This paper presents the development of Artificial Neural Network models for forecasting the cost and contract duration of school reconstruction projects to assist the planners' decision-making in the early stage of the projects. 132 schools reconstruction projects in central Taiwan, which received the most serious damage from the Chi-Chi Earthquake, were collected. The developed Artificial Neural Network prediction models demonstrate good prediction abilities with average error rates under 10% for school reconstruction projects. The analytical results indicate that the Artificial Neural Network model with back-propagation learning is a feasible method to produce accurate prediction results to assist planners' decision-making process.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.502-506
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• 2013

The cash flow forecasting is normally done by contractors in construction industry at early stages of the project for contractual decisions. The decision making in such situations involve uncertainty about future cash flows and assessment of working capital requirements gains more importance in projects constrained by cash. The traditional approach to assess the working capital requirements is deterministic in and neglects the uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate approach to assessment of working capital requirements for contractor based on fuzzy set theory by considering the uncertainty and ambiguity involved at payment periods. Statistical methods are used to deal with the uncertainty for working capital curves. Membership functions of the fuzzy sets are developed based on these statistical measures. Advantage of fuzzy peak working capital requirements is demonstrated using peak working capital requirements curves. Fuzzy peak working capital requirements curves are compared with deterministic curves and the results are analyzed. Fuzzy weighted average methodology is proposed for the assessment of peak working capital requirements.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.46 no.5
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• pp.55-60
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• 2004

This study was performed to evaluate the early estimation of compressive strength of concrete using mineral admixture by refrigeration curing method. It was a method of early decision for the property of concrete after the curing age 28days through the refrigeration curing at $-18{\pm}3^{\circ}$ for five hours. The test result was fixed connection between the curing age 28days and 31hours by the compressive strength test through the standard curing and refrigeration curing. Accordingly, it can be reduced the mistake of construction work by forecasting the property of concrete through the refrigeration curing.