• 유통과학연구
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• 제14권12호
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• pp.79-87
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• 2016

Purpose - Since 1990, the sudden stop in capital flows has caused the economic crisis. The purpose of this research is to suggest the policy measures to mitigate the risk of the sudden stop in capital flows. To this end, we examine the theoretical framework and analyze the case study for countries which are faced with the sudden stop. Also we examine the structural problems of the foreign exchange market in Korea and derive the policy implications to prevent the sudden stop. Research design, data, and methodology - The criteria of whether the sudden stop in capital flows occurs are based upon Calvo et al. (2008). In case the proxy variable for the balance of capital account decreases from the average by over twice standard deviation, we determine that the sudden stop occurs for that country. The sample period is from January 1990 to December 2008, as in Calvo (2014). The sample countries are 17 developed countries and 19 emerging market countries, which are different from those of the previous papers as Agosin and Huaita (2012), and Calvo (2014). When the exchange market pressure index(EMPI) is deviated from the average by over three times standard deviation, we determine that the foreign exchange market is unstable for that country. Results - We find that the characteristics of the sudden stop in capital flows are the bunching or contagion among countries, the rapid drop in real effective exchange rate, and the huge decrease in foreign exchange reserves. Many countries tried to increase foreign exchange reserves and regulate capital flows. Also the foreign exchange market in Korea are found to be the volatile exchange rate, the vulnerable external debt and careless management of the foreign exchange derivatives transaction risk. Conclusions - To lessen the risk in the sudden stop of capital flows, this research suggests the some useful policy measures. To enhance the foreign exchange and distribution market stability, we should improve the price mechanism of exchange rate, hold the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserves, prevent excessive inflows of foreign exchange and promote sound transactions of foreign exchange derivatives.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.99-110
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• 2018

본 연구는 해운기업의 주요 비용요인 벙커 가격과 환율의 불확실성으로 인한 재무적 리스크를 수치화하는 방법론을 2010년 1월 1일부터 2018년 1월 31일까지의 일별자료를 대상으로 적용한다. 기하브라운 운동 (Geometric Brownian Motion 이하 GBM)과 이를 확장한 조건부 이분산성(heteroskedasticity) 및 점프 확산 프로세스(jump diffusion process)에 의존하는 모형으로부터 추정한 현금 흐름 리스크 추정치는 다음 세 가지 학술적 기여로 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 운임수익률과 같은 단일 변수에 의존한 리스크 분석을 벙커가격과 환율 수익률 변동성과 같이 복합요인으로부터 발생하는 영향으로 분석을 확장하였다. 둘째, 개별기업 수준에서 벙커가격과 환율 리크스 관리의 필요성을 민감도 분석을 통해 현금흐름수준으로 제시하였다. 마지막으로 분석결과가 제시하는 리스크 규모를 근거로 해운기업은 리스크 관리를 위한 수단으로 무엇이 적절한가를 고민해야 할 필요성이 있음을 제기한다.

• East Asian mathematical journal
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• 제37권5호
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• pp.567-576
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• 2021

In this paper, we deal with the pricing of vulnerable power exchange option. We consider the hybrid model as the credit risk model. The hybrid model consists of a combination of the reduced-form model and the structural model. We derive the closed-form pricing formula of vulnerable power exchange option based on the change of measure technique.

• 무역학회지
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.19-38
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• 2021

This study aims to analyze the foreign asset leverage effect on Korean oil & gas companies' foreign profits and to maintain the appropriate foreign asset volume for reducing exchange risk. For a long time, large Korean companies, including oil companies, overheld foreign currency liabilities. For this reason, most large companies have been burdened to hedge exchange risk and this excess limit holding deteriorated total profit and reduced foreign currency asset management efficiency. Our paper proceeds in presenting a three-stage analysis considering diversified exchange risk factors through estimation on transformation of foreign transactions a/c including annual trends of foreign asset and industry specifics. We also supplement incomplete the estimation method through a practical hedging case investigation. Our research parts are differentiated on the analyzing four periods considering period-specifics The FER value of the oil firms ranged from -0.3 to +2.3 over the entire period. The results of the FER Value are volatile and irregular; those results do not represent the industry standard comparative index. The Korean oil firms are over the credit limit without accurate prediction and finance high interest rate funds from foreign-owned banks on the basis on a biased relationship. Since the IMF crisis, liabilities of global firms have decreased. Above all, oil firms need to finance a minimum limit without opportunity losses on the demand forecast and prepare for uncertainty in the market. To reduce exchange risk from the over-the-limit position, we must consider factors that affect the corporate exchange risk on the entire business process, including the contract phase.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.1043-1051
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• 2009

본 연구는 극적인 타결을 이루어낸 한 미 FTA의 효력 발생이 이후 두 국가간 통화로 이루어지는 원/달러 환율의 행태에는 어떠한 영향을 줄 것인가에 대한 시사점을 얻기 위해 대미 FTA 국가들을 대상으로 FTA 체결 전 후의 환율행태가 어떻게 달라졌는지를 살펴보고 공통점 및 차이점을 발견하여 향후 원/달러환율의 행태를 전망하고자 하는 데에 목적을 두고 있다. 실증분석의 결과, 칠레를 제외하는 변동성 환위험프리미엄이 모두 효력 발생이후 다소 줄어든 반면, 칠레는 변동성과 환위험프리미엄 모두 다소 증가한 것으로 나타나 해당환율의 변동성 및 환위험프리미엄의 변화는 같은 방향으로 이루어지나 대상국가에 따라 차이가 있음을 보여주고 있다. 이러한 연구결과는 환율변화의 불확실성에 대비해야 하는 IT무역업체들에게 한 미 FTA 효력 발생 이후 원/달러환율의 변동성과 위험프리미엄 행태에 어떠한 변화가 예측되는지에 대한 정보를 제공해 줄 것으로 기대된다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2006

This study analyzes the effect of exchange rate and exchange risk on the import of Korea's fisheries. The estimation models consist of the following contents. The first model consists of one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries$(IMQ_t^{Total})$ and three independent $variables-RP_t^{Total}$, $EX_t\;and\;EXV_t$. The second one-one dependent variable-import quantity of fisheries from China$(IMQ_t^{CN})$ and three independent $variables-RP_t^{CN},\;EX_t\;and\;EXV_t$. And the last one is made up of one dependent variable - import quantity of fisheries from $Japan(IMQ_t^{JP})$ and three independent $variables-RP_t^{CN},\;EX_t\;and\;EXV_t$. The estimation results show that all of the independent variables are statistically significant. Especially, the effect of Chinese $RP_t^{CN}$ is grater than Japanese $RP/P_t^{JP}$. However, the effect of Japanese $EX_t$ is grater than Chinese $EX_t$.

• 지식경영연구
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.35-56
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• 2014

This study examined the effect of perceived risk, an under-explored area in the knowledge sharing literature. We proposed that employee perceptions of risk relate positively with their knowledge sharing behaviors (donating and collecting), and examined the mediating role of impression management strategies in the hypothesized relationships. We also explored the moderating effect of leader-member exchange (LMX) in the relationship between perceived risk and impression management strategies. Valid and reliable self-report and supervisory evaluation measures were collected from a sample of 251 railroad employees in safety-sensitive positions. The results indicate that perceived risk was not significantly associated with knowledge sharing, but rather the risk perception impacts were indirect through impression management strategies such as exemplification and supplication. The study also found that LMX has no moderating effect on the perceived risk and impression management strategies. In discussing these results, we present significant insights in terms of subjective risk judgment as a potential mechanism which can encourage organizational politics.

• 경영과학
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.161-184
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• 1994

The purpose of this paper is to suggest a DSS(Decision Support System) framework for managing exchange risks involved in international transactions. To this aim, a number of hedging strategies were suggested and analyzed in their pros and cons. Also, developed were a system architechture and various functional modules for implementing the suggested foreign exchange risk management system and application scenario was demonstrated. Finally, future research areas were indicated.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.

• KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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• 제3A권1호
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• pp.53-60
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• 2003

At present the electric power industry in Korea is going through a major restructuring process. The restructuring is motivated by a desire to reduce electricity supply costs, to attract new in-vestment in modern generation, transmission and distribution facilities, and to stimulate innovation in the wholesale production and the retail supply of electricity. The experience to date shows that restructuring of electric power industry in the US, however, is marred with a number of problematic market performances including unreasonably high prices at wholesale. This paper investigates the important role of Power Exchange for stabilizing electric power industry in transition by offering various financial products. These financial products are used for risk hedging by the market participants. The paper focuses on the risk hedging by an individual supplier and derives an explicit decision rule that incorporates the attitude towards the risks. In addition to providing the financial products for risk hedging by market participants, the Power Exchange plays another very important role of financial safeguard system. Because of its unique characteristics, the Power Exchange is well suited for financial surveillance where it performs the early detection of unsound financial (and to a large extent operational) practices on the part of any system users and protect the system integrity and the market participants from the consequences of a default in the clearing structure.