• 한국화재소방학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국화재소방학회 2011년도 추계학술논문발표회 논문집
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• pp.454-457
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 소방시설의 성능위주의설계를 수행하기 위하여 ETA(Event Tree Analysis) 기법을 적용하는 방안을 고찰하였다. ETA기법에서는 화재시나리오를 사건(Event)의 인과관계로 된 각 단계의 사건으로 구성한다. 본 연구에서는 ETA에서 구성된 시나리오에 따른 심각도를 화재시뮬레이션과 피난 시뮬레이션을 통한 수행으로 사망자수를 도출하는 방안을 적용하였고, 각 시나리오의 빈도(확률)은 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) 기법을 적용하여 분기 확률을 도출하도록 하였다. ETA에서 도출한 사망자수와 빈도를 이용하여 F-N 커브를 작성하여 위험도를 평가하여 소방설계의 보완 및 대책을 수립하는 방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제12권6호
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• pp.936-943
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 철도사고 위험분석 및 위험도 평가절차에 따라 철도건널목사고에 대한 정량적인 위험도평가를 위한 모델을 사건수목 및 고장수목 분석기법을 이용하여 개발하였다. 위험사건이 발생하여 인명피해로 결과하는 과정에서의 영향인자들을 분석하여 사고진전 시나리오를 구성하였으며, 고장수목분석(FTA, Fault Tree Analysis)을 이용하여 시나리오 경로별 발생확률을 산정하고, 사건수목분석(ETA, Event Tree Analysis)을 이용하여 심각도 값을 산정함으로써 이들의 조합으로 위험도를 산정하는 위험도 평가 모델을 제시하였다. 또한 실제발생한 위험도값과 개발모델을 이용하여 산정된 위험도값의 비교를 통하여 개발모델의 신뢰성 및 타당성을 검증하였다.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.41-55
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• 2018

Accidental oil and gas leak is a critical concern for the offshore industry because it can lead to severe consequences and as a result, it is imperative to evaluate the probabilities of occurrence of the consequences of the leakage in order to assess the risk. Event Tree Analysis (ETA) is a technique to identify the consequences that can result from the occurrence of a hazardous event. The probability of occurrence of the consequences is evaluated by the ETA, based on the failure probabilities of the sequential events. Conventional ETA deals with events with crisp failure probabilities. In offshore applications, it is often difficult to arrive at a single probability measure due to lack of data or imprecision in data. In such a scenario, fuzzy set theory can be applied to handle imprecision and data uncertainty. This paper presents fuzzy ETA (FETA) methodology to compute the probability of the outcomes initiated due to oil/gas leak in an actual offshore-onshore installation. Post FETA, sensitivity analysis by Fuzzy Weighted Index (FWI) method is performed to find the event that has the maximum contribution to the severe sequences. It is found that events of 'ignition', spreading of fire to 'equipment' and 'other areas' are the highest contributors to the severe consequences, followed by failure of 'leak detection' and 'fire detection' and 'fire water not being effective'. It is also found that the frequency of severe consequences that are catastrophic in nature obtained by ETA is one order less than that obtained by FETA, thereby implying that in ETA, the uncertainty does not propagate through the event tree. The ranking of severe sequences based on their probability, however, are identical in both ETA and FETA.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.16-21
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to conduct ETA on 15 components of power installations: the DS/LBS, LA, MOF, CT, PT, A/V meter, VCB, OCR, COS, PF, Transformer, Condenser(C), Grounding, Cable and Connector. To achieve that, power installations work flow and its components are categorized. Based on performance, human, environmental, management, and safety, this paper drew Initiation events (IE) and End states (ES). ETA is applied to the main functions of each component, and the end states that may occur in one initiation event are suggested. In addition, detailed classification was performed to induce various end states on the basis of the suggested initiation events. If the suggested IEs and ESs are applied on the basis of power installations event cases, it is expected to prevent the same kinds of accident and operate power installations safely.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.34-41
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• 2016

The purpose of this paper is to conduct ETA on six items of ESS: the whole system, battery, BMS, PCS, ESS and cable. To achieve that, ESS work flow and its components are categorized. Based on performance, human, environmental, management, and safety, this paper drew initiation events (IE) and end states (ES). ETA is applied to the main functions of each item, and the end states that may occur in one initiation event are suggested. In addition, detailed classification was performed to induce various end states on the basis of the suggested initiation events ; loss of grid electricity of ESS, loss of battery electricity(DC) of battery, impairment of electric function of BMS, loss of grid electricity(AC) of PCS, loss of data of EMS, Mechanical damage of cable, event sequence analysis conducted on the basis of event trees. If the suggested IEs and ESs are applied on the basis of ESS event cases, it is expected to prevent the same kinds of accident and operate ESS safely.

• 한국재난정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국재난정보학회 2022년 정기학술대회 논문집
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• pp.227-228
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• 2022

전통적인 HRA(Human Reliability Analysis)방법은 특정 애플리케이션 또는 산업을 염두에 두고 있으며. 또한 이러한 방법은 종종 복잡하며, 시간이 많이 걸리고 적용하는 데 비용이 많이 들며 직접 비교하기에는 적합하지 않다. 제안된 HFHM(Human Factors Hazard Model: 인적 요인 위험 모델)은 기검증되고 시간 테스트를 거친 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis:결함 트리 분석)및 ETA(Event Tree Analysis:이벤트 트리 분석)의 확률 분석 도구 및 새로 개발된 HEP(Human Error Probability:인적 오류 확률)예측 도구와 통합되고, 인간과 관련된 PSF(Performance Shaping Factors:성능 형성 요인)를 중심으로 새로운 접근 방식으로 개발되었다. 인간-시스템은 상호작용으로 인한 재난사고 가능성을 모델링하는 위험분석 접근법 HFHM은 다음과 같은 상용 소프트웨어 도구 내에서 예시되고 자동화된다. HFHM에서 생성된 데이터는 SE 분석가 및 설계에 대한 표준화된 가이드로 사용될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 인적 위험을 예측하는 이 새로운 접근 방식을 통해, 전체 시스템에 대한 포괄적인 재난안전 분석을 가능하게 한다.

• 전산구조공학
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.351-360
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• 1998

본 논문에서는 실용적 체계신뢰성에 기초한 강사장교의 안전도평가를 위한 체계적인 모형을 제안하였다. 공용중인 강사장교의 시스템 안전도평가를 위하여 요소신뢰성해석을 위한 케이블, 주형 그리고 주탑의 한계 상태모형과 각 요소들간의 조합파괴를 포함하는 주파괴경로를 정의할 수 있는 체계신뢰성해석 모형을 제안하였다. 요소신뢰성해석을 위한 수치해석기법으로는 AFOSM(Advanced First Order Second Moment) 방법을 사용하였고, 체계신뢰성해석을 위해서는 부분 ETA(partial Event Tree Analysis) 모형을 사용하였다. 제안된 방법의 타당성을 고찰하기 위하여 진도대교의 안전도 평가에 적용하였다. 부분 ETA 모혀을 사용한 체계신뢰성 평가 방법은 기존의 요소신뢰성 방법에 비해 구조물의 여용성을 충분히 반영하는 상당히 합리적이며 실제적인 결과를 보여주는 실용적인 방법으로 판단된다.

• 한국해양공학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.47-52
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• 2013

A subsea chemical injection system treats blockage problems in a subsea production system. It is important to treat problems quickly, because production delays cause fatal profit losses in a subsea production system. Therefore, the subsea industry requires a relatively higher reliability level for a production system compared to other industries. In this study, a subsea chemical injection system (linked to a control system) to inject chemicals into a subsea X-mas tree was analyzed. By using FSA (Formal Safety Assessment), the risk factors were defined and a quantitative risk analysis utilizing FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA (Event Tree Analysis) was performed. As a result, the effectiveness of a risk reduction option was evaluated.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제32권2호
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• pp.27-33
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• 2017

This study is intended to identify issues on the basis of investigating the actual state of laboratory environment and outlet circuit, and derive end states by expressing sequences from the initiating event of disaster to accident in leakage current, poor contact and overload through ETA(event tree analysis). To this end, this study investigated the actual state of electric equipment of laboratory at universities in all parts of country. And it is shown that most of them are failure in electric work and user negligence in the investigation of actual state. It is found that there is earth fault and defect in wire diameter in the failure of electric work and the problem of partial disconnection due to wire bundling and poor contact in user negligence. Outlet-related component, failure rate and initiating events are composed of a total of 41 initiating events, i.e., 30 internal initiating events and 11 external initiating events. And end states are composed of a total of 15 parts, i.e., 3 electric power parts and 12 safety parts. Earthing class 3 is the most important safety device against leakage current (initiating event). And in case of poor contact, it is necessary for manager to check thoroughly because there is no safety device. In case of overload/overcurrent, when high-capacity equipment is connected, a molded case circuit breaker, safety device, worked. However, in most cases, it is verified that this doesn't work. This study can be utilized as electric equipment safety guide for laboratory safety manager and managers.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2002년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.473-480
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• 2002

In this paper, it was proposed that hazard analysis and risk assessment about railway signal systems using FTA(Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA(Event Tree Analysis) one of the reliability analysis methods executed and output value based on the hazard baseline of CENELEC and EC 61508 producted, and also the SIL(Safety Integrity Level)/THR(Tolerable Hazard Rate) about the system set. On the basis of this principle, more systematic standardizations are required to operate railway system and in the future, we hope that safety and reliability of signal equipment will be better improved.